can you believe all the group stage games of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup have already been played and they’re now into the knockout stage? It went by faster than I thought! Before I give my predictions for the first set of knockout games, I’ll give my overview of the group play.

GROUP PLAY OVERVIEW

The Women’s World Cup has always had surprises but I don’t think there’s ever been a WWC with as many surprises as this! Did the change from a 24-team tournament to a 32-team tournament pave the path for all these surprises? Or would they have happened anyways?

I’ll mention the major surprises and shockers group by group. Starting with Group A, hosts New Zealand beat heavily favored Norway in their opening game. Then they’d lose in their next game to the Philippines! In Group B, Nigeria was more consistent than expected. Their consistency also included them beating hosts Australia 3-2. Australia’s comeback win of 4-0 over Canada meant Canada out! Group C was mostly expected with Japan and Spain qualifying. The unexpected was Zambia’s win over Costa Rica. Group D went mostly shock-proof until the end when England beat China 6-1. That also meant an unexpected early ouster for China!

Group E’s biggest shock was the USA not topping and giving less-than-spectacular play. The scoreless draw between the US and Portugal was the most shocking result. A Group F surprise was Jamaica qualifying. And they only scored a single goal! The bigger shock was Brazil not qualifying! Group G had the surprise of South Africa playing better than expected and their win over Italy helping them qualify. And to think the last group – Group H – had arguably the biggest shocks. Most notable Colombia’s 2-1 win over Germany and Morocco’s 1-0 wins over South Korea and Colombia. In the end it was Morocco and Colombia that advanced leaving favorites Germany and South Korea out!

What can I say? The group play gave us a mix of highlights and lowlights. Starting with lowlights, Vietnam and Haiti lost all three of their games and didn’t score a goal, the five red cards at this Women’s World Cup are already the most ever, Canada failed to advance for the first time since 2011, Brazil for the first time since 1995, and both China and Germany failed to progress for the first time ever! Yes, it’s something how three teams currently ranked in FIFA’s Top 10 are now out. Now onto the highlights. This Women’s World Cup so far has a goal average of 2.63 per game and crowd attendance averaging over 25,476 per game. For those that did qualify, Denmark qualified for the first time since 1995 and three nations, Jamaica, Morocco and South Africa, qualified for the knockout stage for the first time ever. This is also the first World Cup, men’s or women’s, that has three African teams in the knockout round and a Caribbean team for the first time ever at a Women’s World Cup! Even for those that didn’t qualify, there were seven nations that achieved their first-ever win of a Women’s World Cup game. Joining Morocco, Jamaica and South Africa as first-timers are hosts New Zealand, Philippines, Zambia and Portugal. And to think of all the teams at this Women’s World Cup, Zambia, Morocco and South Africa had the lowest FIFA rankings of them all!

ROUND-OF-16 FOCUS

Now onto focusing on the Knockout Round. The complicated thing about this Round of 16 round is that it’s not like your typical Round of 16. Every World Cup the Round of 16 sets up the path of the whole knockout round leading to the final. Whenever a single nation hosts a World Cup, the path is organized so that group play opponents don’t meet again until the Final. Now that two nations are hosting, that will make it hard to do so since the knockout round brackets are organized differently. It’s quite possible that group play opponents could meet as soon as the semi-final. And it’s happened before when Japan and South Korea co-hosted the men’s World Cup of 2002 and group opponents Brazil and Turkey did end up meeting again in the semifinal. Let’s hope we don’t get a similar situation here.

ROUND-OF-16 PREDICTIONS

Now that 48 matches have been played and the qualifiers for the knockout rounds have been decided, the only thing for me to do is now make predictions for which team will win which Round-Of-16 match. So here we go with my predictions! Matches will be in chronological order and my prediction for the winner will be bolded:

Switzerland (Group A winner) vs. Spain (Group C 2nd): Switzerland clinched to top of Group A through lackluster play. They started well with a 2-0 win against the Philippines, but was only able to do scoreless draws against Norway and hosts New Zealand. Spain had already secured their qualification with a 3-0 win over Costa Rica and a 5-0 win against Zambia. Their last game, against Japan, was there to decide first place in the group, which Japan won 4-0.

Now for the game, Switzerland and Spain have met only three times before. Spain winning twice and Switzerland the other time. I will have to say that Spain’s aggressiveness in their games may give them the advantage. Switzerland has given nothing away in the Cup but they’ve lacked in the scoring. I think that will hurt them in the end and that Spain will win.

Japan (Group C Winner) vs. Norway (Group A 2nd): Admit it. We all like it when a team wins all three of their group play games. Japan is that: 5-0 against Zambia, 2-0 against Costa Rica and 4-0 against Spain. Then again, we also like teams that come from behind and deliver. That was Norway. They started with a shocking 1-0 loss to hosts New Zealand and had a scoreless draw against Group A winners Switzerland. Game three was a case where the former champions from 1995 needed a win and nothing less to qualify. In their game aganst the Philippines, they delivered: 6-0!

This ia unique game. Two teams that have won the Women’s World Cup at least over ten years ago. The only previous time they met at the Women’s World Cup, in 1999, Norway won 4-0. In the nine previous times they met, Japan have won more often: 6 wins to Norway winning three times. Although I’m happy to see Norway come alive again, I pick Japan to win. They’ve been playing more solid.

The Netherlands (Group E Winner) vs. South Africa (Group G 2nd): This is one Round of 16 match consisting of two shockers. The first shocker is the Netherlands topping Groups E. The funny thing is that this match was anticipated to have the U.S. top Group E and was scheduled such so it would be at 10pm Eastern Time on Saturday for US viewing time. There are no guarantees in sport! The Netherlands proved that by beating Portugal 1-0, drawing against the U.S.A. 1-1 and beating Vietnam 7-0! The right stuff to top Group E. The second shocker is South Africa qualifying for the first time ever. They slowly but surely showed off their previously untapped strength starting with a 2-1 loss to Sweden, a 2-2 draw to Argentina and ending with a 3-2 win over Italy!

The Netherlands and South Africa have met eight times before. in all eight cases, the Netherlands won. Even though this is the best I’ve seen of South Africa, I still feel the Netherlands will win. Nevertheless it’s possible South Africa can make it go into added extra time.

Sweden (Group G Winner) vs. U.S.A. (Group E 2nd): Sweden topping Group G was a foregone conclusion. Even winning all three games against Italy, South Africa and Argentina was not unexpected. The U.S.A. finishing second in Group E was unexpected. They started with a decent 3-0 win over Vietnam, had a respectable 1-1 draw against the Netherlands, but the scoreless draw against Portugal was a shock and has fans nervous for the team.

Now don’t think that just because the U.S. finished second in their group, they will be out of the WWC soon. They finished second in their group in 2011 and would go on to play in the final. Now onto this match. Sweden and the U.S. are big-time rivals. They’ve met 43 times. Sweden won eight times. The U.S. won 23. As for the World Cup, the two have clashed at the Women’s World Cup six times before, including every WWC since 2003! Previous results are 4 U.S. wins, one Sweden win and one draw. This is a tough decision but will have to say Sweden. The U.S. can beat Sweden if they’re on. At this WWC, the US have been playing lackluster. If the U.S. are not on the ball in this match, it will be over sooner than they hoped and sooner than we all expected.

England (Group D Winner) vs. Nigeria (Group B 2nd): England continued to show why they’re ones to watch by topping Group D with nothing but wins: 1-0 over Haiti, 1-0 over Denmark and 6-1 over China! Nigeria proved themselves the surprise team of Group B starting with a scoreless draw against Canada, a surprise 3-2 win against Australia and a scoreless draw against Ireland to secure qualification. This makes it the third time Nigeria advance to the knockout stage here.

England and Nigeria have met three times before. The first time was at the 1995 Women’s World Cup which England won. The other two times, Nigeria won. The last time being in 2004. I give this to England. They’ve been playing better and delivering a better attack. I think this is theirs for the winning.

Australia (Group B Winner) vs. Denmark (Group D 2nd): Australia really felt the pressure of being the host nation. They started well with a simple 1-0 win against Ireland, then endured a shocking 2-3 loss to Nigeria. Australia knew they had to defeat Canada to stay alive and they did: 4-0! Denmark secured their qualification starting with a 1-0 win over China, then endured a 1-0 loss to England, but a 2-0 win over Haiti assured itself qualification.

The most interesting thing about this match is we have two teams that both had two wins and a loss in group play. The two teams have played each other a total of six times. Denmark won three times and there were two draws. Australia may have won only once but their win was back in October! I give this to Australia.

Colombia (Group H Winner) vs. Jamaica (Group F 2nd): Here’s a case of two teams that didn’t have high expectations but made it! Colombia started off with an unexpected 2-0 win over South Kore and then came and even more shocking 2-1 win over Germany! Their 1-0 loss to Morocco didn’t interfere with them topping their group. Jamaica is another surprise qualifier. They start with a scoreless draw against France, a 1-0 win over Panama and a scoreless draw against Brazil. That’s all they needed to qualify for the first time ever! They may have scored only one goal but boy does their defense speak volumes!

For my prediction for the win, Colombia and Jamaica have met only twice before. Their first meeting in 2018 was Jamaica winning. Their second meeting, at the 2019 Pan Am Games, was Colombia winning. For this I’ll predict Colombia. They’ve been scoring better better and playing harder. Jamaica appears to have a great defense but Colombia’s better scoring ability will eventually prevail in the end.

France (Group F Winner) vs. Morocco (Group H 2nd): France’s qualification is not a surprise. They did start with a surprising scoreless draw against Jamaica, but wins of 2-1 against Brazil and 6-3 over Panama was just what they needed to top Group F. Morocco is one of the biggest surprises of the whole Cup. They started with a disappointing 6-0 loss to Germany, but 1-0 wins over both South Korea and Colombia was just the right stuff to make them a surprise qualifier! Of the eight nations making their debut at this Women’s World Cup, Morocco is the only one that advances!

In searching for head-to-head stats of France and Morocco, I have been unable to find any information of them meeting before in the past. In the end, I will have to give it to France. They’ve been attacking and scoring better. Morocco has been a delightful surprise, but I think the surprise will end here.

QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS:

Provided the Round of 16 winners end up being exactly who I predicted, here are my predictions for the quarterfinals. I won’t do too much rambling with my quarterfinal predictions. Especially since the teams playing haven’t been decided. I’ll keep it brief:

Spain vs. Netherlands: Provided my predictions go right, I say Spain. Spain and the Netherlands have met ten times before with Spain winning five times and the Netherlands winning two. The Netherlands’ prowess seems to be fading a bit while Spain’s prowess has grown. That’s why I say Spain.

Japan vs. Sweden: This should be interesting. The two have met fourteen times before, including three at the Women’s World Cup. Japan has won five times. Sweden six. This could be tight as both teams have played strong but Japan has conceded nothing so far. I think Japan will win on penalty kicks.

Australia vs. France: Australia have done a better job at playing than expected, but France has shown better consistency. In the past, they’ve met eight times before. Australia winning four times and France winning three. I predict France to take this, but on added extra time.

England vs. Colombia: The only time England have ever played Colombia was in a Canada 2015 group game, which England won 2-1. The Colombian team has changed a lot since they met, but England has too. I think this will be a case of England winning in added extra time.

And there you go! Those are my predictions for the first two sets of knockout matches of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Will the knockout matches be as unpredictable as most of the group play results? We’ll just have to see!