I’ve been so focused on the Euro 2020, I completely forgot that the CONMEBOL’s Cop America was happening this year! And the final is the very night before the final of the Euro! Interesting that both major tournaments are taking place around the same time. Nevertheless they’re both worth predicting to winner for. Before I give you my Euro pick, I will give my prediction for the Copa America final.
Copa America Summary
It seems like there hasn’t been a major event in the world that hasn’t been affected by COVID. Copa America is one of those events affected too. It was supposed to be held from June to July of 2020 in Argentina and Colombia. COVID caused its eventual cancellation and rescheduling to 2021. The twelve-month wait also led to the Copa being rebooked to another nation in May 2021. Colombia went through political unrest with protests against the president and Argentina had issues with the severity of its COVID situation. This led the Copa to be rebooked to Brazil: five venues in four cities.
For the tournament, it was originally scheduled to be twelve teams competing: the ten CONMEBOL nations, special guests Australia, and 2022 World Cup host nation Qatar. The pandemic is what caused the limit of nations to be just the ten CONMEBOL nations. The pandemic is also the reason why all matches have been contested behind closed doors. The preliminary matches were contested under five groups of two. The two groups were decided under the ‘South Zone’ or the ‘North Zone.’ In Group A, Argentina topped with Uruguay second. In Group B, Brazil topped with Peru second. For the knockout rounds, Brazil qualified with 1-0 scores against Chile and Peru. Argentina qualified with a 3-0 win over Ecuador in the quarterfinals and a penalty kick shootout against Colombia in the semis.
Now that I did my brief summary, here’s my summary of the two teams and my prediction for the win for the Copa America:
Team By Team Analysis:
Argentina: The South American team with the second-biggest legacy in football is undoubtedly Argentina. We’re talking about a nation that has won the World Cup twice, made the World Cup finals a total of five times, and won the Copa America fourteen times. A notion that has had their share of legends on the international scene like Guillermo Stabile, Daniel Passarella, Mario Kempes, Diego Maradona, Gabriel Batistuta, Claudio Cannigia, and the latest being Lionel Messi. Messi is often seen as the tour-de-force of the Albiceleste, but playing football is not a one-man job. In fact even at this tournament, Argentina has had other top scorers like Lautaro Martinez and Alejandro Gomez.
The Argentine team has underperformed in tournaments in the past. The most recent World Cup, they bowed out at the Round of 16. The previous Copa America, in 2019, they finished third. Their last Copa America win was back in 1993. And to think Messi has not won either a World Cup or a Copa America. This is not just a burden for Messi but the whole team as I sure they would want some big international glory too. In fact their losses in the 2015 and 2016 Copa America finals to Chile were to penalty kicks. The team however have been playing very well. Their last loss was to Brazil in the 2019 Copa semifinals. Since then they’ve had seven wins and five draws before this Copa, including a 1-0 win against Brazil back in November 2019. Here at the Copa, they showed moderate but strong play against their rivals. Even in their draws, Argentina always scored first. However in their semifinal against Colombia, they drew 1-1 and it had to come down to penalty kicks. Argentina will definitely have to be on and in control if they want to take the Copa this year.
Brazil: And now onto the nation with not just the biggest football legacy of South American teams but of all teams worldwide! Brazil has won the World Cup five times in the seven finals they’ve played in and have won nine Copas. If you started a list of the legendary Brazilian players in history, you’ll end up writing forever. However Brazil is not perfect. In fact the last fifteen years have been very good at exploiting Brazil’s weaknesses. Three of the past four World Cups, they’ve been out in the quarterfinals and talk about the humiliating semifinal against Germany at the 2014 World Cup which they hosted. And if there are any teams that are best at exploiting Brazil’s weaknesses, it’s the South American teams. In fact their 2019 win was their first Copa win since 2007. In between, there were three Copas and they were out either in the quarterfinal or group play.
Brazil is currently coached by Tite, who has coached many Brazilian clubs before heading the national team in 2016. Neymar is not the captain, but Thiago Silva is. The team has some good veterans, but they also have a wealth of new young talent. In the 28 matches Brazil has played since their quarterfinal ouster at the 2018 World Cup, they have won 21 of them and only lost three. Their last loss was to Argentina back in November 2019. Here at the Copa, their one game they didn’t win was a 1-1 draw against Ecuador. They won their other three preliminary matches well. However in the knockout rounds, all their wins were 1-0. Brazil will have to contend well against Argentina if they want to take their tenth Copa.
Final Verdict: This is tough one. Especially since this is one of football’s fiercest rivalries. Argentina is the team Brazil has played the most and Brazil Argentina has played the second-most (they’ve only played Uruguay more). Brazil and Argentina have played each other 107 times. 43 of those times, Brazil won. 39 of those times, Argentina won. The last head-to-head match, as I mentioned previously, Argentina won 1-0. I predict this game will go to a 1-1 draw with Argentina taking it on penalties.
And there you go! That’s my prediction for the final of the 2021 Copa America. Good to see a tournament to take our eyes off the Euro for a bit. And for a lot of good reasons!