Jon The Blogcentric

This Women’s World Cup has been good, but crazy. The main crazy thing is the big time-zone separation between Australian/New Zealand time zones and the North American times. One good thing is I’m able to see at least five games of Canada or the US playing, or expected to play, during North American prime-time hours. Most of the time, the games will be held while I’m sleeping. In addition, all of the third-games of the group stage will be contested starting at times between midnight Pacific time to 4am Pacific time!

Another crazy thing about the game set-ups is the times and dates of some games. One thing I’m unhappy about is New Zealand vs. Philippines, a Group A game, was contested on July 25th while Australia’s second game, against Nigeria, was contested on the 27th. Isn’t it odd Australia played their second game on the same day all Group E teams played their second game? And Australia’s Group B? In addition all second games of Group D were.played on the 28th! I’d rather it be contested in the group’s order and that the games were on the opposite days. I don’t understand it. In addition, the third-matches of Group A will be contested before the last matches of Group H. What’s up with that? No complaint about Australia and New Zealand are host nations. My complaint is how they organized this.

Nevertheless I have been able to make my assessments on how the eight groups are going and what it needed to qualify for the knockout round. Keep in mind unlike the last two Women’s World Cups there’s no third-place wildcard berths. All groups are a case the top two and only the top two advance.

The way the group play looks after two games played by each team, three teams have enough game points to secure qualification, five teams have enough game results to guarantee elimination and the other twenty-four will need the third and final game to decide it all. So here’s how things look for each group so far. Qualified teams will be bolded and links to my blogs will be in the group titles:

Group A: All I can say right now is Group A is the group of surprises after two games played. First off, New Zealand. On opening day, both host nations won their games 1-0. The Football Ferns should be especially proud since their win against Norway was not only an upset, but made it their first-ever win of a Women’s World Cup match ever! And they’ve been in every WWC since 2007! Second surprise, Philippines winning against New Zealand. A debut team and they score a surprise 1-0 win against the hosts! And the Philippines team is the lowest ranked of the four in FIFA’s rankings! Third surprise, Norway. They had the highest FIFA ranking of all Group A teams and they’re at the bottom thanks to their loss to New Zealand and their draw to Switzerland! Did anyone expect that?

Right now none of the Group A teams have officially qualified. All four have chances to qualify and it’s very lengthy to explain all their chances. Switzerland has the healthiest chances of winning thanks to their 2-0 win over the Philippines and their scoreless draw against Norway. Drawing against hosts New Zealand is all they need to qualify. New Zealand could qualify with a draw, but it would heavily depend on the result of the game of Norway vs. Philippines. If the Philippines wins, Philippines will qualify instead. If Norway wins, New Zealand could still qualify, but it would depend on the draw’s score and the score of Norway’s win. Once again, it would be a number’s game. As I mentioned, Philippines could steal the berth from New Zealand if they win. but would need a big win of at least two goals over Norway to qualify. Norway is in the case of nothing less than a win to qualify and possibly a goal differential in the win of two goals or more should New Zealand draw against Switzerland. I said it wasn’t easy to explain it all!

Group B: Group B is another group of surprises! It all started with Australia playing one of the two openers. They won their March against Ireland 1-0. The next game, Canada vs. Nigeria, was a surprise as it ended in a scoreless draw. For the second games, Canada vs. Ireland did go as anticipated as Canada won 2-1, but Australia vs. Nigeria was the surprise. Nigeria won 2-3!

So with the final games to go, we have three teams that still have a qualifying chance. Nigeria has the best chances of qualifying with a win and a draw and their goal differential. The only way for Nigeria to fail to qualify is if they lose to Ireland and the Australia/Canada game is a draw. As for that game, it’s interesting to see how Australia will play against Canada in response to their loss to Nigeria. One thing is certain from the match is that the winner qualifies. As I mentioned before, both teams can qualify if they draw, but Nigeria will have to lose to Ireland for Australia to qualify. The only way for Canada to fail to qualify is if they lose to Australia and Nigeria beats Ireland. Also Ireland is out. Their elimination actually happened right after they lost to Canada. Even if they beat Nigeria, it won’t do it.

Group C: Two games is all it took to decide the two qualifiers. By winning their first two games Spain and Japan are officially going to the knockout round. Their third game, where they play each other, will be to decide who finishes first and second in the group and which Round of 16 games they play in. Whoever wins will top Group C. If a draw, Spain will top as it has a better goal differential by one goal.

With two losses, both Costa Rica and Zambia are officially out of the tournament. Their game on the 31st will be for pride and to decide third from fourth. And to score goals! Not only did both teams lose their first two games, but neither team had a goal scored for them! Their final game oughta make it happen!

Group D: One good thing about this group is that all four games ended with a win. One bad thing about this group is that all games have ended with scores of 1-0. Right now England is the team with the best qualifying chances after winning both their games. China and Denmark are in a stalemate with a win and a loss both. Haiti is not out of the running, but has the slimmest of chances after losing both their games.

The thing with this group is that none of the teams have guaranteed qualification yet. On that same token, none of the teams, Not even Haiti, have officially been eliminated. All four teams still have a chance and it’s complicated to explain. The easiest is that England wins over China or even draws against them and Denmark wins over Haiti. Your two qualifiers there. There’s also the chance England could lose to China and Denmark wins. Depending on what kind of win China has over England, goal differentials can give rise to the possibility of England not qualifying. There have been cases before in the men’s World Cup of three teams having two wins and a loss and one of those teams not advancing. Just ask the Algerian team of 1982!

The odds and ends don’t stop there. England could lose and Haiti could beat Denmark. That would lead to England and China qualifying. There’s even a possibility of Haiti qualifying, but it’s the slimmest of the slim chances. Haiti would not only need a good well-scoring win over Denmark, but also England would need to beat China! It has happened before at the men’s World Cup there was one team that won all three of their games and the other three teams had a win and two losses each. What can I say? This is the case where only the third game can decided it for all!

Group E: The crazy thing about having a group with two top-ranked teams is you think the qualifiers will be decided almost instantaneously. It seemed to be the case here as we have the two finalists from the last Women’s World Cup. Things did appear to go as planned as the US beat Vietnam 3-0 and the Netherlands beat Portugal on their openers. The US and the Netherlands meet and there ends up being a 1-1 draw to many people’s surprise. On top of it, Portugal made itself a contender for qualifying after their 2-0 win over Vietnam.

The craziest thing about this is that the Round of 16 and quarterfinals have only a single match in both cases aimed for an earlier-than-usual start time in anticipation that the US top Group E. The Round-of-16 match where the team that tops Group E is scheduled to be contested in Sydney at noon on Saturday August 6th and the quarterfinal featuring the winner of that match is to be held in Wellington on Thursday the 11th at 1pm. All for being contested live during American primetime television hours. I doubt the US will finish second or fail to qualify, but imagine if it does!

So with one game to go, we have three teams eligible to qualify. The US and the Netherlands have the best chances to qualify with both a win and a loss. They’re heavily favored to win their next games and a win would guarantee them qualification. One of the few ways any one of the teams could miss qualifying is if they both lose their games and the Netherlands would be out because of a lower goal differential than the US. The only other way is if the US loses their match to Portugal. Then Portugal and the Netherlands would qualify instead. Also to add, Vietnam is out. Even if they win against the Netherlands, it would be too much too late.

Group F: In this group, things started off slowly for France and Jamaica with their scoreless draw. Brazil pained the pole position with their 4-0 win over Panama, which included a hat trick by Aly Borges; the first hat trick of the Women’s World Cup. France knew they couldn’t waste any more chances and won 2-1 against Brazil. Jamaica also seized a moment of their own and won 1-0 over Panama.

As of now three teams still have a chance of qualifying. France has the best chances. Even if they draw against Panama, they will still be in there. The winner of the Brazil/Jamaica match will qualify. If a draw, Brazil will qualify because of its better goal differentials. The only way France can’t qualify is if both Brazil and Jamaica tie and France loses to Panama by a huge margin. It’s possible. As for Panama, it’s over for them. Even if they win over France, the other three teams already have better game points and goal differentials to qualify.

Group G: Winning its first two games is all Sweden needed to do to qualify for the knockout stage! Starting with 2-1 over South Africa and then 5-0 over Italy. As for the other three teams, they’re still all in contention. Italy may have lost 5-0 to Sweden but their 1-0 win over Argentina keeps them in second-place in the current Group C standings. The 2-2 draw between Argentina and South Africa is what keeps their qualification chances alive.

Even though Sweden has qualified, their final match against Argentina may be about their ranking. They could finish second if they lose and Italy win against South Africa, but Italy will need a super-big win over South Africa to make Sweden finish second in the group. As for all the other three teams, Italy has the best qualification chances. Most obviously, a win over South Africa will solidify their qualification. If Italy and South Africa draw, Italy could still qualify, provided Sweden doesn’t lose to Argentina. That 5-0 loss to Sweden really set them back and could cost them should that happen! Argentina and South Africa can still qualify but it must be nothing less than a win for either. South Africa has the advantage with goal differentials. Argentina would need a win of 2-0 or 3-1 to qualify if South Africa wins. What can I say? The slimmest of chances are still a chance!

Group H: If there’s one group that’s to be called the group of shockers, this group is it! The first game of Germany winning over Morocco was not a shocker, but the score of 6-0 was. The game of Colombia vs. South Korea resulted in a surprise win for Colombia 2-0. Game two provided even bigger shockers. In South Korea vs. Morocco, Morocco won thanks to a sixth-minute goal from Ibtissam Jraidi. The shocks didn’t end there as Colombia would beat Germany thanks in part to the winning goal of Manuela Vanegas in the seventh minute of added extra time in the second half!

One thing about this group is that all four teams still have qualifying chances and it will take the third games to decide it all. The team with the best chances is Colombia with their two wins. Even a draw against Morocco will solidify qualification. The only way Colombia could fail to qualify is if Germany wins their game and Morocco beats Colombia with a score of 4-0 or 5-1 or something similar. As for Morocco, the aforementioned scenario is one of only two ways they can qualify. No doubt Morocco needs a win to qualify, but to qualify even with as small of a win of 1-0, Germany will have to draw or lose against South Korea. As for Germany, those are the only ways they can fail to qualify. Despite having a win and a loss, their big 6-0 gives them some of the best chances to qualify.

As for South Korea, they have to be the biggest underachievers of this Cup. Ranked 17th in the world and not only lost both their games, but without a goal scored! Just how I mentioned in Group D how Haiti still has a chance to qualify, despite it being the slimmest of slim, Colombia’s win over Germany kept South Korea’s qualifying chances alive! Nevertheless the chance is very slim. Not only will South Korea need a win and for Colombia to win too, but their win over Germany will need a score similar to 5-0 or 6-1. Simply put, the win has to be by a margin of at least five goals! Talk about the slimmest of slim!

And there you have it. There’s a look at those that have made it and those that are still in contention. It’s not easy to explain, but group play is rarely an easy thing to explain. Sometimes it’s never obvious until the very end.