First off I have to say that France has done a very good job as host. All but one match has had an attendance of at least 10,000 people and the crowds have been great and enthusiastic. Also the play has been good too. Only one red card so far, and that was a double-yellow. And now FIFA’s groups page include ‘fair play points’ as stats for deciding group rankings. Understandable since it was fair-play stats that gave Japan the qualifying advantage over Senegal in Group H of last year’s men’s World Cup. In addition, two Brazilian players set WWC feats. Formiga became the first player ever to play in seven consecutive Women’s World Cups and Marta set a record of being the first woman to score in five separate editions of the WWC.
Today all the groups have finished playing their second game of group play. Eight teams have their qualifications for the Round of 16 guaranteed mathematically; two wins are a lock. The sixteen others are still unknown. Some groups went as predicted so far. Others have delivered a surprise or two including a few teams most of us underestimated at the start. These third-games will finalize the group-play standings and who will play who in the Round of 16. The Top 2 in each group will have their berths secure. The third-place teams will have to wait until all groups are done to see if they’re among the Top 4 that advance. And both of each group’s third-games will be played simultaneously for the sake of making the contest fair. Those that already qualified, Game Three is important for them too. They may have guaranteed qualification, but their final standing has not yet been determined. Game Three will determine if they finish first or otherwise. It will also determine which game they play and who their opponent will be.
The one thing is right now all sixteen of the teams that don’t have their qualifications guaranteed yet still have a chance in Game 3 to get one of the remaining eight berths. Even those teams that have two losses so far, they can qualify for the Round of 16 by winning their next game and if their goal differentials hold up well. Here is a group-by-group breakdown of those who made it (with countries who are guaranteed to advance in bold), and what the others need to qualify:
Group A: France did it! They had the pressure as hosts to play well. However they won both their matches against Nigeria and Norway to guarantee qualification. In their match against Nigeria, they could simply draw to guarantee first place in Group A.
Norway and Nigeria both have a win and a loss. The only way either of them can overtake France for 1st in Group A is if they both win their games, which will mean Nigeria will have to upset France. Goal differentials will have to decide the rankings. Nigeria would have to win super big over France if they want to top the group.
South Korea may have two losses but it’s not over for them. They could still qualify if they beat Norway and their goal differentials hold up (like beating Norway by four points), along with the added bonus of Nigeria to beat France. If France beats Nigeria, goal differentials in both games will have to decide if South Korea to make it. Sigh, it’s too tough to explain; it’s all about the numbers. Mind you everything will be decided Monday.
Group B: The group was seen to be Germany’s to dominate and it almost looks like they will do it. Germany is the only team guaranteed to be in the Round of 16 after winning against both Spain and China. A simple draw on Monday against South Africa will keep Germany at the top.
However a first-place for Germany even if they lose to South Africa is not guaranteed. Both of Germany’s wins were 1-0. A loss to South Africa could cause Germany to drop to 2nd depending who wins in China vs. Spain and how big the win is. Right now Spain leads over China in goal-differential stats. Spain has been one of the surprises of the Cup so far with their win against South Africa. The winner of Spain vs. China will of course have the edge in group play here, but a draw will have Spain with the advantage of finishing 2nd and China 3rd. Spain could top with a 1-0 win if Germany loses, but for China to top if Germany loses, the win will have to have a two-goal advantage.
South Africa also still has a chance. They would have to win over Germany as well there would have to be a winner in the Spain vs. China game. Also their goal differentials will have to hold up. They’re not trailing as badly as South Korea in Group A. However the games on Monday will set everything in stone.
Group C: To think the last time Italy qualified for a knockout stage of the Women’s World Cup, it was the inaugural WWC in 1991! Now they’re the Group C team that has already guarantee qualification! That came after their surprise 2-1 win over Australia and their 5-0 win over Jamaica. Italy’s goal differentials are so big, both Brazil and Australia will need a win of at least 3 goals to overtake Italy for first. Italy can simply draw against Brazil for 1st place in Group C.
Australia and Brazil may already have healthy chances of qualifying, but it’s not over for Jamaica. Like South Korea in Group A and South Africa in Group B, they still have a chance to qualify if they win over Australia. However it will have to be a super-big win of having at least a four-goal advantage.
Group D: Two wins is what it takes to guarantee qualification to the Round of 16. England is the team of Group D that already has the two wins. With eight teams having lost both their games, that means Japan qualifies due to their win over Scotland and draw over Argentina: the only draw of the WWC so far. Interesting is that the Argentina-Japan game is the one game that ended in a draw. Argentina surprised everyone when they drew 0-0 against Japan: the finalist at the last Women’s World Cup. This may have been Argentina’s seventh-ever Women’s World Cup game, but it was also the first time ever Argentina didn’t lose!
The games on Wednesday will decide everything. England and Japan may have qualified but they just need to draw against Japan to top Group D while Japan needs to win. Japan could finish second if they draw but a loss could put them in third place, depending on the result of Scotland vs. Argentina. If Argentina wins, they will get third-place at the very least and a guarantee of qualification. If Scotland wins, they will get a third-place finish since Argentina has 0-1 in goal differentials.
Group E: If two teams have two wins, their Top 2 finish in a group is already guaranteed. The Netherlands and Canada are those two teams in Group E. Their game on Thursday against each other will decide 1st place. The Netherlands can clinch it in a draw due to better goal differentials. Therefore Canada needs to win if it wants to top Group E.
Meanwhile it’s not over for Cameroon or New Zealand. A win for either will give them their chance for a wildcard berth, but goal differentials will have to give them their advantage. One thing’s for sure: with Cameroon ahead in the stats, a draw will rob Cameroon of any chance of advancing as four third-place teams are already guaranteed better finishing stats.
Group F: Group F is like Group E where the Top 2 teams have won both their games. That means Sweden and the United States guaranteed their qualification for the Round of 16 today. The United States really made history in their 13-0 win against Thailand as the most goals scored in a single WWC match. Alex Morgan’s five goals ties her for the record of most individual goals. You can understand why that goal from Thailand’s Kanjana in their 5-1 loss to Sweden meant so much.
The match of Sweden vs. USA is pretty much a competition for a first-place finish of Group F. Simply with their big win against Thailand, the US just needs to draw to finish first; the goal differential is just that wide. Sweden however needs a win and nothing less to finish first.
For Thailand and Chile, it’s like Group E that either one still has a chance. It’s whoever wins in the Thailand vs. Chile match. Even Thailand is not out, although its chances of qualifying are the slimmest of the slim. If they win, it will have to be if there’s a draw in the Cameroon vs. New Zealand game of Group E and a draw in the Scotland vs. Argentina game of Group C. Thanks to that big loss to the US, their goal-differentials are so huge, those two draws on those two games are the only way Thailand can advance if they win against Chile. Chile doesn’t have that bad of a goal-differential situation, but they still need a win and nothing less to have a chance at qualifying.
And there you have it. That’s a wrap-up of what’s needed to finalize everything in the Group Stage of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup. It will all be decided from Monday to Thursday. There won’t be a dull moment.
Already in these past eleven days, all 32 teams played their first two games. Already some team’s fates are determined as six teams know they’ve qualified for the knockout round and eight teams know they’re going home after they play their last game. The fates of the remaining eighteen are still unclear and they will have to rely on their play in the last game in order to determine if they’re among the remaining ten to advance or among the other eight that will head home earlier than they hoped. With each group’s games both taking place simultaneously, you can bet each team will need to play like they mean it.
Here is a group-by-group breakdown of those who made it (with countries who are guaranteed to advance in bold), those who will be leaving soon and those who still have a chance. Hyperlinks with each group are to my original review:
Group A: This is as basic as game statistics go about right now. Two teams won both their games which of course means the other two teams lost. The two that won their two games already know they’re advancing. That’s as basic as it gets. This is the only group that has it that way. The two teams that won both their games are Russia and Uruguay. One of two groups that already has decided both of their qualifiers.
Monday’s game of Russia vs. Uruguay will be a case of the final standings. They know they’re qualifying. The game will be about who qualifies as first and second. Russia could finish first by simply drawing. Their goal differential is big enough. Uruguay will have to win if they want to finish first as both their wins were 1-0.
Since Egypt and Saudi Arabia lost both their games, it’s pretty clear in their match against each other on Monday, it will be a game for pride.
Group B: Group B is a group that’s hard to explain. The only definite thing is it’s over for Morocco. As for qualifiers, no definite ones with three teams still having a chance. Portugal and Spain both have the best chances after their 3-3 draw against each other and 1-0 victories in their following games. Both would not only have to win in their games (although they could still qualify even if they both draw), but if both win, goal differential would have to decide 1st and 2nd.
However don’t count out Iran. They may rank 3rd right now with a win and a loss– their win being their first since 1998– but beating Portugal will mean they would qualify. If Spain loses their game against Morocco in the process, Iran could just come out on top! Goad differential would have to decide between Spain and Portugal for the second berth.
What can I say? Game 3 will have to decide it all.
Group C: Right now one team, France, is guaranteed to qualify based on their two wins. Also one team, Peru, is guaranteed to go packing for home after Tuesday’s game, whether they win against Australia or not. Even if Denmark beats France on Tuesday, France still has enough game points to qualify, even if they would finish second and Denmark would win Group C.
The way things are right now, France and Denmark could draw and both teams would advance on game points, even if Australia beats Peru. Australia would still have a chance if they beat Peru and Denmark loses to France. However even as little as a draw against Peru would eliminate Australia’s chances from qualifying. Another case of Game 3 to decide the second qualifier, as well as the final standings of all teams.
Group D: That’s all it took. It just took Croatia’s 2-0 win over Nigeria and 3-0 win over Argentina to have them qualify for the Round of 16 for the first time since their 3rd-place finish in 1998.
Croatia is in a healthy position to finish first in Group D as Iceland would have beat Croatia to have a chance at qualifying. And Croatia is as capable of losing to Iceland as they are to beating them. Both teams won a game against each other in World Cup qualifying. Actually the other three teams all have a chance to qualify, no matter how slim. Even Argentina, despite their big loss to Croatia. Argentina’s big loss does put them at the bottom with the harshest of chances to qualify. They would not only have to beat Nigeria, but Croatia will have to beat or draw against Iceland. Messi’s fourth and possibly final chance at winning a World Cup depends on all that. Nigeria could still qualify with a draw against Argentina, but a win will guarantee them qualifying should Iceland actually defeat Croatia. That’s Game 3 for you. Sometimes chances are not worth taking.
Group E: Group E is a lot like Group B where two teams have a win and a draw, one team has a win and a loss, and one team has two losses which guarantee elimination after Wednesday’s game. The team that’s definitely eliminated is Costa Rica. They may have been the Cinderella story of 2014, but the clock struck midnight here in Russia for them. Even if they beat Switzerland, it’s over.
Any of the other three teams–Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia– can qualify, depending on the results of their games on Wednesday. All three also have chances to get eliminated too. Brazil could draw against Serbia and it would guarantee qualification for them. However Serbia would have to win over Brazil to guarantee qualification on their side. They could still qualify if they draw against Brazil and Switzerland loses to Costa Rica 2-0 or 3-1, but why take a chance? The only way Switzerland could still qualify after losing to Costa Rica is if Brazil loses to Serbia 2-0 or 3-1 as Brazil has an edge with their goal differential. A draw against Costa Rica would guarantee qualification for Switzerland, whether either Brazil or Serbia wins.
Brazil could still qualify if they simply draw against Serbia, but the only way for Brazil to qualify if they lose to Serbia is if Coast Rica beats Switzerland, and as long as their loss to Serbia isn’t that huge of a margin. Whatever the situation, Game 3 will be a case where all three eligible teams will have to play it like they mean it.
Group F: This is the one group where there are no definite qualifiers, but no teams definitely eliminated either. All four teams still have a chance to qualify and it will completely rely on the outcome of the final game on Wednesday. Game 3 could have a case where there are two teams with two wins and a loss with the other two teams having a win and two losses. It could even be a case of one team having three straight wins and the other three teams having a win and two losses and goal differentials deciding the second qualifier. Of course draws could change all that, but right now none of the teams are eliminated and all still have a chance.
Starting with Mexico, they have the best chances of qualifying after their 1-0 win against Germany and 2-1 win over South Korea. However they could be eliminated if they lose to Sweden 2-0 or 3-1 and Germany wins 2-0 or 3-1 to South Korea in the process. That would be the case of three teams with two wins and a loss but one doesn’t qualify. And it has happened in past World Cups.
Germany and Sweden both have a win and a loss as well as two goals for and two against. However Germany leads Sweden for the second-place spot because of the head-to-head result. I have to say that goal by Tony Kroos in the 95th minute was definitely something Germany needed to stay alive and have healthy chances of qualifying to the knockout stage. Otherwise they would’ve risked being the fourth of five defending Cup champions this 21st century that failed to advance. Nevertheless they still risk missing out not just if they lose to South Korea, but even if they draw and Sweden ends up winning over Mexico. It’s still possible Germany will fail to advance past the opening round for the first time since 1938. Like Germany, Sweden would have to win over Mexico to have the healthiest of chances to qualify. Qualifying via a draw could only happen if Germany draws too and Sweden’s draw is bigger: such as Sweden-Mexico 2-2 while Germany-South Korea 1-1. Whatever. It’s too complicated to tell! But they know they need to play like they mean it.
Finally there’s South Korea. It’s easy to think they have the best chances of getting eliminated with losing both games, but they still have a chance, despite it being a slim one. They not only have to win over Germany, but Mexico has to beat Sweden in order for the Koreans to qualify. A slim chance is still a chance possible. And the Koreans could do it since they will have a one-man advantage on Wednesday. The fates of all will be decided that Wednesday. Sure, it was awfully long for me to describe, but the group is that tight right now.
Group G: Group G is like Group A where the two qualifiers are already decided thanks to both England and Belgium scoring two wins and both Panama and Tunisia losing to both teams in the process. This is especially happy for England as the first win was England’s first win of a World Cup match since 2010. Definitely a big upper after a dreadful 2014 showing. The big surprise is that both England and Belgium share the same goal differential with eight for and two against. Their game on Thursday will be just to decide who finishes first and who finishes second. A draw, god forbid, would require the team of the first goal to take first place, or some other FIFA law if the draw happens to be nil-nil. Glad to see no nil-nil draws yet this World Cup.
It may be all over for Panama and Tunisia but their game on Thursday will be for pride. Panama will try to win their first game ever while Tunisia will try to win their first game since their debut in 1978.
Group H: Another group with no definite qualifiers and three teams that still have a chance at qualifying. When I made my predictions, I looked back and wondered if there would be any African teams or Asian teams that would have a chance of making it past the group stage. My predictions didn’t make it look so. However Japan and Senegal are the two teams that have done the best play with a win and a draw each. Japan is especially noteworthy as they delivered the first victory by an Asian team since 2010. The That 2-2 draw where Japan played Senegal was tight. Their games on Thursday will have to decide their final fates. Colombia endured a 2-1 loss to Japan in their first game, but really picked themselves up tonight after their 3-0 win over Poland. That win helps keep Colombia in contention for qualifying. It all depends on their game against Senegal. They would have to win as Senegal has the advantage if they draw. And who knows what will happen in the game of Japan vs. Poland. Both Senegal and Japan have the luxury of qualifying even if they both draw in their final matches.
The only team that has their World Cup fate already decided is Poland. They lost 2-1 to Senegal and 3-0 to Colombia and that means it’s over for them. They could win against Japan for their national pride. If Japan does lose, the only way Japan could qualify is if Senegal beats Colombia. Game 3 is almost always make or break.
And there you have it. This is how qualifying stands for the knockout stage of the World Cup right now. These next four days will seal the fates of all teams not just for who qualifies, but how they finish in their group. Don’t forget it’s not just about getting a berth by finishing in the Top 2. It’s also about the two qualifiers’ group finish as it will decide which game they play in and determine who their opponent will be. Too complicated to explain it all. Still exciting to watch the action unfold.
Euro 2016 has made headlines for a lot of good memorable play. It’s also made headlines for the worse for hooliganism from Russian and Croatian fans. However starting tomorrow, all 24 teams have one last game to play. Three teams have officially qualified, one is officially out and the other twenty are still relying on the last game to decide it all. Here’s the breakdown of the teams that made it and the teams still with one last chance. Note only teams guaranteed qualification have their names bolded.
Okay, it’s safe to say that by now, two wins guarantees you’ll be playing in the knockout round no matter what happens in the third game in any group. France is already guaranteed to move on after their wins against Switzerland and Albania. However they’re not guaranteed first place in the standings. Switzerland could take France’s top position away if they beat them. Chances are slim but still there. If Switzerland doesn’t win, they do have strong chances of finishing second despite what happens in the Romania-Albania game. Romania would need to have a win of at least 2-0 or 3-1 over Albania and Switzerland will have to endure nothing more than a loss to France if they can take second place in Group A.
Albania may have lost both of their games but they are not out. They still have a chance of qualifying if they defeat Romania. It will have to be nothing less than a win for Albania and even then they will have to wait until all the groups have finished and have all the third-placers ranked in order to determine the four that qualify. It’s what it all boils down to in this wildcard race.
This is unique because none of the teams in the group are guaranteed of qualifying. That’s a good thing because all four still have a chance leading up to their last matches on Monday, June 20th.England currently leads with a win and a draw with Wales and Slovakia with both a win and a loss. However they could drop to third place if Slovakia beats them and Wales beats Russia. I’m sure England wouldn’t want that embarrassment. Slovakia and Wales can qualify even if they draw Final results of who ranks where will have to be decided in the final game. One thing is certain: if Wales and Slovakia both win, draw or lose, Wales will have a higher ranking because of their win over Slovakia. Even if Wales lost to Russia on Monday, they would still have the advantage of finishing at least third.
Now onto Russia. Russia has had a lot of bad publicity because of their fans’ hooligan actions. UEFA has even dealt them a blow of a fine of 150,000. In addition, they face difficulty with their play as they sit with just a draw and a loss. Russia can still qualify but they will need nothing less than a win against Wales to do so.
Germany currently at the top is no surprise. Germany’s scoreless draw against Poland was to many. Except me because I anticipated them to draw: albeit a score of 1-1. No doubt about it, this is Poland’s best Euro especially since they achieved their first ever win. Germany leads Poland in goal differentials should both Germany and Poland win, lose or draw on Tuesday the 21st.Poland could still clinch the lead over Germany but they would have to win over Ukraine and Germany draw over Northern Ireland or Poland draw and Northern Ireland win. Northern Ireland will need nothing less than a win over Germany to rank second at the very least. They are guaranteed a third-place finish but they will have to rely on win-loss stats and goal differentials of the other third-place teams to see if they are one of the wildcard qualifiers.
As for Ukraine, it’s over. Even if they did win over Poland by even the hugest margin, their Euro 2016 trip will end Tuesday because their loss to Northern Ireland on Thursday put them in last place in Group C. For those that don’t know, head-to-head results override goal differentials at the UEFA Euro while it’s the opposite for the FIFA World Cup. That’s how things work here.
It’s official that Spain is advancing to the Round of 16. Their wins against Turkey and the Czech Republic solidified their chances. However they could still finish second in the group. That can happen if they lose to Croatia. Croatia sits in second with a win against Turkey and a draw to the Czech Republic. Croatia is comfortable enough that they’re guaranteed finishing third at least. A draw will give them second place. A loss could still keep them in second but it would have to be a small loss to keep them in second. They wouldn’t want the Czechs to win big against Turkey.
The Czech Republic will need a win if they are to advance. A draw will not cut it because of possibly falling short in the wildcard ranks. Meanwhile Turkey is not out either. A win will put them in third place with the possibility of qualifying. It will all be decided Tuesday the 21st.
It’s now official that Italy has guaranteed qualification to the Round of 16. Its wins against Belgium and Sweden assured them a spot in the next round. Actually Italy has been guaranteed first place because even if they lost to Ireland and Belgium won, they’d have the advantage over Belgium because of their 2-0 win. Belgium’s win over Ireland brought their chances back. They could still qualify if they drew against Sweden. However a loss could endanger their chances of qualifying. Simply put, Sweden and Ireland need nothing less than a win to qualify. A draw for either wouldn’t cut it.
Hungary is the team on top right now thanks to the group’s only win: against Austria 2-0. Every other match was a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. Hungary can still advance with a loss to Portugal because of their win over Austria. Iceland and Portugal have two draws but Iceland leads because they scored more. Already Iceland has their best team ever and they keep on breaking new ground each time, even if their two Euro games are 1-1 draws. I’ll bet Portugal was shocked to find out how good they were. Iceland would have to win over Austria in order to advance but Austria needs nothing less than a win over Iceland for their chances as they’re the one team with a loss. And it’s all chancy for Portugal. A win over Hungary will give them qualification but a draw will put them in the tricky wildcard category.
And there you go. That’s the team rundown before they play their final preliminary game. Just like in FIFA tournaments, the third games for each group will all be played simultaneously. Hey, it’s do or die.
Today is now a rest day at the FIFA Women’s World Cup. All 24 teams are now moving away from the stadiums they’ve played their first two group games and preparing for their final group game. Sixteen teams will move on after this game, eight will be heading home. Third-place teams still have a chance but it depends on how well they all stack up as only the best four of the six can go through. Here is a group-by-group breakdown of those who made it (with countries who are guaranteed to advance in bold), those who will be leaving soon and those who still have a chance:
Canada leads but without a doubt they lack the dazzle they’ve been known to have. A 1-0 win over China and a scoreless draw over New Zealand may assure them first place right now but they’re not impressing the home crowd. Canada could still likely qualify even if they lost to the Netherlands but I don’t think they’d want to do that. China was able to get itself in after its win against the Netherlands. Actually both China and the Netherlands are tied as they both won 1-0 and lost 1-0. Their play in the next game will decide their fates. New Zealand still has a chance of qualifying after that scoreless draw against Canada but they need nothing less than a win against China if they’re to do so. This group is anyone’s game right now.
Norway’s win over Thailand was not a surprise. Neither was Germany’s win over the Ivory Coast but the score was definitely a surprise. For the record, the 10-0 score is not the most lopsided victory at the FIFA WWC. That was achieved by Germany in 2007 in a Group Stage match against Argentina: 11-0. Germany and Norway drawing was a surprise. It’s not uncommon to see teams drawing after they feel they have a comfortable enough lead. Both Germany and Norway are likely to win their next games as neither Thailand nor the Ivory Coast seem like a challenge to either of them. Thailand could still have a chance if they draw against Germany but that’s unlikely. That would have to draw down how they’d rank against the third-place teams. Ivory Coast doesn’t appear too likely to qualify as they will play Norway next.
Japan is definitely progressing. Their two wins secured it for the defending Cup champions. They will highly likely come in first as their last match of group play will be Ecuador and it looks most likely to be a win. Both Switzerland and Cameroon have lost to Japan but they were able to profit off of play against Ecuador. Switzerland had it best with their 10-1 win on Friday. If they both tie in their final game, both will qualify because of goal differentials to their advantage. The win of course would decide the second place team in the group. Of course Ecuador is out. As I said in my group blogs, there are some countries that don’t have a chance of progressing or winning and this World Cup is their opportunity to learn and hopefully grow in the years to come.
As you probably read in my blog, I had a feeling this group would be the ‘Group Of Death’ and it has already delivered some surprises. The first being the 3-3 draw between Sweden and Nigeria. The second being the scoreless draw between the U.S. and Sweden. The U.S. will qualify no matter what happens against Nigeria. All three other groups’ fates will be decided in their final game. As of now, all three have a chance. Nigeria could get in if they beat the Americans. Australia could qualify upon a draw against Sweden but Sweden needs nothing less than a win to qualify.
Brazil is already guaranteed to finish top of their group with their two wins against South Korea and Spain. Even if they lose to Costa Rica, which highly won’t happen, they have enough game points to finish on top. Neither of the other teams have even a single win and that means second and third is anyone’s game. Costa Rica could still qualify if they tie Brazil though that may not be too likely but if they do, they would have to rely on the third-place team rankings to see if they made it. They have an advantage over teams that would have a win and two losses because of even goal differentials. South Korea and Spain both still have a chance but either team has to win if they want to qualify. A draw won’t cut it as there are at least four third-place teams with at least a win.
This is another group with surprises. At first I thought Colombia didn’t have a chance of qualifying but right now they’re the Group F team that’s assured of advancing. It was their 2-0 win over France that did it. That leaves favorites France having their fate decided in their game against Mexico. England however received an advantage after their 2-1 win over Mexico. That kept them in contention of qualifying with their match against Colombia to decide it. Both France and England can advance by simply drawing against their opponents but there’s no question they’d want to win with their reputations as women’s football leaders in Europe at stake. Mexico however needs nothing less than a win in order to advance. They’re lucky as their goal differential is actually quite small. Nevertheless it’s interesting to see that this group best demonstrates the progress of women’s football in countries of Europe and Latin America.
And there you go. That’s what’s needed in terms of advancing to the Round of 16 starting on Monday. I’m sure it will be crazy shifting your attention from one game to the other but don’t worry, the other will eventually get replayed.
Well here we go. Each of the teams at this year’s World Cup have played two of their three Group Stage opponents. Over the next few days they will all play their last opponent and the group results will be official. Two countries from each group will remain in contention and move onto the knockout rounds. Two others will have their World Cup dreams end right there.
Already there have been some clear results over these past two games. There are some that already achieved their guarantee to move on. There are some that already have been determined it’s already all over. And there are some that will have to rely on the last match as a last chance. Here is a group-by-group breakdown of those who made it (with countries who are guaranteed to advance in bold), those who will be leaving soon and those who still have a chance:
I’ll bet most of you thought that Brazil would be the first country to be guaranteed a berth in the Round of 16, right? So did I. The scoreless tie against Mexico still keeps things uncertain between three countries. The one certainty is that Cameroon will not move on even if they won against Brazil, which would highly be unlikely.
The way it looks for the three teams in contention is this. With Mexico playing Croatia, Mexico can qualify by simply tying. Croatia needs nothing less than a win. Brazil can simply qualify by tying but do you think they’d want to do that after their scoreless draw to Mexico?
This is the one group where both advancers have already been decided. Both the Netherlands and Chile have two wins guaranteeing them a spot in the Round of 16. It’s also guaranteed it’s all over for Australia and defending champs Spain with two losses each. Even if one of them won in their match on Monday, it would all be just for pride. That’s all they can muster now. I’m sure Spain will most likely want to win it as a last message about themselves.
The match of Netherlands vs. Chile on Monday will be a case where it decides which team finishes first and which finishes second. Netherlands can end up #1 just by simply drawing against Chile because of better goal differentials. Chile must win this if it wants to claim the #1 spot in Group B. Besides I have a co-worker who’s Chilean and he wants Chile to win. He feels if Chile loses, they’ll end up facing Brazil in the Round of 16. And Brazil has cut Chile’s World Cup dreams short in the Round of 16 twice before: in 1998 and 2010.
Colombia’s two wins over Greece and the Ivory Coast have guaranteed them a berth in the Round of 16: their first since 1990. The other three countries still have a chance. Japan could do it by winning against Colombia and Greece could do it if they win against the Ivory Coast. However it’s a case for either of those two nations that they have to win in order to qualify. And even if both win, it would depend on goal differentials to decide who qualifies with Japan having a two-goal advantage over Greece. Ivory Coast could advance just by simply tying Greece but it’s best guaranteed by a tie between Colombia and Japan.Ivory Coast could lose their chances if they tie and Japan has a win with a two-goal advantage. Or Ivory Coast could be out if they lose to Greece. So it’s not out for any of the four and the last games in Tuesday to decide it all.
Admit it. When you’ve been looking at this group all these months, you were probably guessing which of the three: Uruguay, England and Italy will qualify. And I’m sure with good reason. All three have a World Cup legacy and all three have proven to be strong challengers today. Even I was fixated almost strictly on those three. I’m sure hardly any of us payed much attention to Costa Rica. I’m sure we all thought Costa Rica was the odd one out and wrote them off. They don’t have the same legacy of the three and even now they rank low in the world. Well guess which of the four in Group D is guaranteed to advance?
Another definite thing is England will be out. This makes it the first World Cup since 1958 that England will fail to advance after the First Round. It’s possible they could win against Costa Rica on Tuesday for the sake of pride but we’ll see. So the match of Uruguay vs. Italy will settle who the second advancer will be. Winner of course advances but if it’s a draw, Italy advances because of better goal differentials. So Uruguay has to win if they want to advance. Quite something how it will be two former World Cup winners from this group who will not advance.
If there’s one country that wanted to make past embarrassments a thing of the past, it’s obvious it’s France. I’m sure most of you remember their embarrassments in 2010. The two wins from France–and big wins with 3-0 against Honduras and 5-2 against Switzerland–show that Les Bleus are back and have an exceptionally strong chance of advancing. The only way I can see France not advancing is if they lose badly to Ecuador (a minimum of 4-0 Ecuador) and Switzerland have at least a 5-0 win over Honduras. That’s how comfortable France’s chances are, though nothing is set in stone right now.
The other option is which of the other country’s will advance. Both Ecuador and Switzerland have a win and a loss each with Ecuador having the advantage with even goal differentials. Ecuador could qualify with a simple 1-0 win over France. If Switzerland were to win too, its win would have to be over three goals at least. The only way Switzerland can advance with something as little as a 1-0 win is if Ecuador loses or ties France on Wednesday. Honduras has slim chances of qualifying but the chance is there. They would have to have a big win over Switzerland–like 4-0 or 5-1– and Ecuador would have to lose to France. No ifs, ands or buts.
Argentina’s two wins may be unspectacular but their 2-1 win over Bosnia and their 1-0 win over Iran guarantee they will advance to the Round of 16. Bosnia unfortunately is out. So the most they can do in their match against Iran on Wednesday is win for pride.
Nigeria and Iran both still have a chance with Nigeria having the advantage with a win and a tie. Nigeria could advance by simply tying Argentina on Wednesday. Iran not only needs a win but Nigeria has to lose to Argentina completely for Iran to advance. Plain and simple.
This is one group where all four still have a chance to qualify.
Germany and the US are the two most likely due to them having both a win and a tie. Portugal has the slimmest chances but they’re still there. They have to have a big win against Ghana and for either of the other two to lose badly in their match to have a chance. Ghana can also make it in with a win but it would have to come at the US losing. They only way Ghana could advance with Germany losing is if Germany loses to the US 5-0 or 6-1. Germany and the US can simply advance just by tying. The US’s chances are good but not solid. As I mentioned before, they could be out if they lose and Ghana has a win. Thursday is the day everything will be decided.
Belgium is the one country right now that’s guaranteed a berth in the Round of 16 with their wins of 2-1 against Algeria and 1-0 against Russia.
While the other three countries still have a chance ,the country with the best odds is Algeria upon their 4-2 win over South Korea. Their win was big enough so that they could advance by simply tying Russia. Only if South Korea won over Belgium 3-0 or 4-1 would that ruin Algeria’s chances. However Russia can still have a chance. They have to have nothing less than a win over Algeria for them to advance. It would only take a big win from South Korea to prevent Russia from advancing upon a win over Algeria on Thursday.
Wonder why all four teams play their last Group Stage game simultaneously? It had its origins at the 1978 World Cup. It didn’t happen in the First Round Group play but in the Second Round of group play. This was when the Top 2 from each group advanced to a second round of group play. Winners of both groups played in the final for the Cup. Second-place in both groups played for third-place. Brazil played their last match 2 1/2 hours before hosts Argentina was to play theirs. Brazil won over Poland 3-1. That sent the message to Argentina they’d need to win over Peru by at least four points to qualify for the final. And they did it: 6-0. Argentina eventually won the Cup. That led FIFA to pass a ruling that all teams in a group play their last Group Stage match simultaneously.
And there you go. That’s what’s needed in terms of advancing to the Round of 16 starting on Saturday. I’m sure it will be crazy shifting your attention from one game to the other but don’t worry, the other will eventually get replayed.