I’m Still Here

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

Oscars 2024 Best Picture Reviews: Part Four

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

The thing about the Oscars is that each year, there are Best Picture nominees for films of subject matter that most people would normally not want to see. In some cases, films of unwatchable subject matter end up Best Picture nominees. A lot of these unwatchable things are based on people or events that actually happened, like these two films. For these next two films, I wouldn’t say they’re unwatchable but they do treat on dark subject matter. They’re far from the topics or themes that would draw crowds. Some scenes many would find too disturbing to watch. All I can say is you be your own judge:

I’m Still Here (Ainda Estou Aqui )

When one thinks of a Brazilian film, one would think of a film that may have scenes of the carnival, the festivities or the beaches. I’m Still Here is a very different film as it presents a dark side of Brazil’s history that they’re still troubled by today. Even the angle from which the film tells its story is unique. We have heard of people kidnapped during political regimes but we rarely hear about how it affects families. It’s through Eunice Paiva that we see how sometimes being married to an enemy to a regime could lead one to being imprisoned. Through Paiva we also see her as she struggles to keep her family together, struggles hiding the truth from her youngest children, struggles with her relationship with her youngest daughter and struggle to get the answers she needs of what happened to her husband. Eunice’s story of being the wife of a kidnapped man really tells a lot. It also shows how it would shape her to be the social justice warrior she became.

The film begins with a beach trip with the Paiva family. Everyone has fun, they all pose together for a photo and Marcelo found a stray dog they can make their own. It’s after that when everything changes. Soon the interrogation of Rubens, Eunice and their daughter, Eunice’s days of imprisonment and the years of aftermath not knowing whether her husband will return alive or if she will be kidnapped again. Then the long wait hoping Reubens will return and the fear of spies outside her door hoping to get her and imprison her again. It’s after the dog Pimpao is run over by the spies’ car that she lashes out at them and she’s had enough. Soon, her desire to leave Rio and start a new life for her and her family in Sao Paulo. The film moves forward to 1996 where Eunice has become a social justice advocate in Brazil, which had returned to democracy in 1989. She shows the death certificate of her husband she achieved. Her family has changed. Especially son Marcelo who became a successful author, despite being confined to a wheelchair. The film ends in 2014, years before Eunice would die of symptoms of Alzheimers. She is connected to a news story about the abductions and the continued pursuit of justice before a family photo.

Looking at it, the film is as much about family unity as it is about injustice in Brazil. Eunice had the nice orderly happy family life before the political abductions happened but that all changed after the imprisonment of the three. Trying to hide the truth of what happened to her father and deal with her older daughters’ knowledge of what happened is not an easy task. Trying to get the answers to what happened to her husband during a political regime that refuses to do so and trying to raise a family is a hard task. That’s one thing we rarely think about. We hear of political abductions in the news but we hardly ever hear of how families cope and try to keep themselves together. It’s through Eunice we see a personal strength we often ignore. You can understand why the family photo at the end of the film was so important. She succeeded in keeping the family ties together as much as she succeeded in achieving justice. The effect on children is also noticed in the film as her daughters fear the worst and are frequently arguing with Eunice. They’re the children with the most truth of what happened. Also the scene in 1996 when Marcelo and Maria, the two youngest, ask each other when they knew their father died, even as Eunice tried to hide the truth.

This is an excellent work from director Walter Salles. He’s one of the most acclaimed Brazilian directors with films like Central Station, The Motorcycle Diaries, Paris je t’aime and the adaptation of On The Road. This film is an excellent accomplishment of telling a dark story and making it a personal story. Even having it end on a positive note is an achievement. With the script written by Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega adapted from the novel written by Eunice’s son Marcelo, he takes the story and makes it relatable even though most of us will never experience something this terrible. He makes us connect with Eunice Paiva’s story and tells it so most of us who don’t know Brazil’s history know of the amazing woman Eunice Paiva was.

Making the film work is actress Fernanda Torres. She succeeds in telling Eunice’s story and makes us feel for Eunice and hope for the best. She did a great job, as did her mother Fernanda Montenegro who plays the dying Eunice at the end. Selton Mello was also great as the husband who still tries to live his life daily knowing he could be a political target any minute and eventually becomes one. The cinematography by Adrian Teijido added to the telling of Eunice’s story.

I’m Still Here is both the retelling of a dark era of Brazil’s history and the personal strength that came out of a kidnapped politician’s wife. It’s a sad story, but positive and hopeful.

Nickel Boys

Let’s face it. A film about a reform school that is infamous for its racism, physical and sexual abuse, and even murder of minors will not make one want to watch it. In fact, Nickel Academy is the pseudonym for the now-closed Dozier School For Boys in Florida where graves of those killed were discovered and survivors are now receiving their justice. Those that have learned of the ugly news of Dozier of recent years will want to avoid seeing Nickel Boys, but it does give people reason to see it.

When it comes down to it, what happened at Dozier School should serve as something that should never happen again. What happened there needs to be told, but how? How can you make a place of abuse and murder watchable? RaMell Ross succeeds in doing it with the character of Elwood Curtis. The film flashes frequently in between Elwood’s time at the school to the adult Elwood who just learns of the truths unraveled in 2003 as he’s a successful businessman with a stable relationship. The film tells Elwood’s story as it starts before Martin Luther King’s civil rights movement and Florida still having Jim Crow laws. The film shows how as we fast forward 40 years later, Elwood is overcome with hurt and trauma as the secrets are unraveled with the finding of mass graves. In the flashback, we see Elwood bond with one of the boys named Turner he’s with and the two plan an escape while Elwood documents all that has happened in a diary. The escape fails for Elwood as he’s shot dead while Turner succeeds in escaping around the time of the Civil Rights Movement. In the flash forward, Turner adopted Elwood’s name to thank him for all he taught him.

Elwood and Turner are fictional characters, but they could be representative of any of the boys at Dozier School. It’s through Elwood’s and Turner’s friendship at Nickel that we’re shown of the corruption, abuse of various kinds and the murders that happened there. Through Nickel Academy, Dozier School was as much about racism as it was about abuse. White students got better facilities and a better education while the black students got bad facilities, a bad education, the most hazardous jobs, and even harmful punishments like the sweatbox. African American students got it harder and their death rate at the school was way bigger than that of white students. Even black students who didn’t do what the white superintendent says, like fix a boxing match, could be executed and the superintendent would never get arrested. You can understand why the story has Turner’s escape around the time of the Civil Rights Movement. It would be the beginning of the end for Nickel/Dozier.

This is a great work from RaMell Ross. The story he directs is based upon a 2019 novel of the same title that is the telling of that fictional friendship. The story he co-adapts with Joslyn Barnes is very good and very revealing. He succeeds in making a film about the abuse that is watchable and gets one to think. It’s a reminder of the ghosts of the past and how even if we do well in the present, it will come back to haunt us. Even as the guilty people are slowly brought to justice, we’re reminded it can’t erase the hurt and trauma. He does a good job in making it as much a story about two friends as it is about exposing the truth. Excellent work. Also great is the acting of Ethan Herisse and Brandon Wilson. Their performance as the friends caught in the drama did as much storytelling about the place as it did about them. Daveed Diggs is also very good as the adult Elwood who tries to hide his hurts of the past, but they eventually come out. Also great is the performance of Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor playing the grandmother who is hoping for the best for Elwood and tries with every chance and opportunity, only for every white ‘helper’ to fail her. Her mix of optimism and heartbreak adds to the story.

Nickel Boys succeeds in making what could be a film of unwatchable subject matter be watchable. The mix of a story of a friendship around a school with a notorious past exposes truths of the school while maintaining a sense of hope.

And that does it for now. That’s my review of the latest two Best Picture nominees of review. The last two will be coming very shortly.