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My Predictions For the 2022 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The date of this year’s Oscars have been moved up an extra two weeks from the 2021 awards. The pandemic is in the midst of dying down and more people are heading back to the theatres. This year was better for me for movie watching. I saw enough films to make up 93 of this year’s 125 nominations! I only streamed one contender this year and it was just yesterday!

This year’s Oscars are to be held on Sunday March 12th. Jimmy Kimmel returns to host for the first time in five years. What’s your guess the Will Smith slap will be in many of the jokes? Yes, it was a shocker last year, but I know the Will Smith/Chris Rock rivalry is something that goes way back! We can’t get enough of these Hollywood feuds, can we? The show promises to be good. Hope it’s not as long as last year’s. And to think last year they did all sorts.of tricks in an attempt to shorten it! Boy did it fail! Anyways this year’s Oscars should be enjoyable and those attending Oscar parties should have fun. So without further ado, here are my picks for the winners of the 2022 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

The annual tradition for Olly Gibbs to do an image of the ten Best Picture nominees is back for the tenth and last time! What can I say? All good things must come to an end! Great stuff with this year’s ten! And thanks for the great images over the years. I’m happy to have seen nine of the Best Picture nominees on the big screen. It always looks better on the big screen. I wrote two sets of reviews of the Best Picture nominees: one from All Quiet to Everything Everywhere; the other from The Fabelmans to Women Talking. In the meantime here are my opinions of the Oscar chances of the ten Best Picture nominees:

All Quiet On The Western Front –  Last year, West Side Story was the reboot of a former Best Picture winner to get nominated. This year, it’s All Quiet On The Western Front. It does seem odd for a World War I drama to get a reboot but after you see it, it makes sense. We live in a time of great cynicism of our leaders. Often we wonder what the point of war is all about. Is it about the people? Or the leaders’ egos? It comes at a good time now as Ukraine is undergoing a war all for the sake of a President’s lust for power. This is a film that is deserving to win Best Picture but there are others that have better chances.

Avatar: The Way Of Water –  The first Avatar movie was worthy of winning Best Picture, and it almost did! The sequel faced a challenge of bringing back the magic of the first Avatar while creating a story that differs from the first. The film succeeds in delivering a new story and returning the audience to the world they experienced watching the first. The thing is the film has a lot of technical nominations but is the only Best Picture nominee without a single acting, directing or writing nomination. It’s because of that I don’t consider it a favorite to win Best Picture.

The Banshees Of Inisherin– Normally the Academy turns up their nose to comedies. I find that funny because if you ask any actor, they will say comedy is the hardest thing to do! This year, there are two comedies that are frontrunners to win Best Picture. Additionally, both of the heavily-favored comedies have four acting nominations to boot! First up is The Banshees Of Inisherin. It starts as a story that seems boring; a lifelong friendship ended because one thinks the other is dull. As the story develops, the rivalry gets more intense and bizarre. Like why would someone with a grudge want to cut their fingers off? Its twists and turns and surprises all around make this a bizarre tragicomedy and the film I predict to be the Most Likely Upsetter to my pick to win.

Elvis – Is it possible.to make a movie about The King that looks like material that belongs on the big screen? Baz Luhrmann answers that with a big fat “Yes!” A lot of the best material of the film comes from the direction and creativity of Luhrmann. Top highlight, however, is the dead-on performance of Austin Butler. His performance of Elvis through the various stages of his life was eye-catching and would keep your attention. This film was loaded with Oscar buzz from the start but just like Power Of The Dog last year, its buzz faded fast.

Everything Everywhere All At Once –  I know I mentioned it’s very hard for comedies to get Oscar love. Well try a movie that involves going through various alternating universes. Doesn’t sound like a top Oscar contender, does it? Well, that’s what Everything Everywhere All At Once is! It’s a ‘film of the absurd,’ but a very entertaining one as Evelyn goes through her various alternate lives in entertaining style. Very well done and very entertaining. That’s why I give it my Should Win and Will Win pick!

The Fabelmans- Normally a film about a filmmaker as a child directed by that very filmmaker would first come across as egotistical. However we’re talking Steven Spielberg. For those whoever wondered what inspired his most thrilling and most remarkable works, there’s your answer. At a time when people have been so down about so many things happening in the world and even near where they live, the film is a reminder that the dream is worth shooting for. That having a great imagination can still go far. Even in a time of great pessimism right now.. Even during the most difficult times. A film like this would normally be considered worthy of Best Picture and it was a heavy favorite at one point, but it tuned out to be the biggest fader thanks to low box office results.

Tár – This is an accomplishment for director Todd Field. It seemed like he was bound to have a major Oscar contender any time soon, but it was a matter of waiting. Finally he does it with Tár. The cornerstone of the film is the performance of Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tár. It’s through her performance we’re drawn to a story of a musical conductor’s rise to the top and sudden downfall. It’s also Field’s direction that makes the film on of the best of the year. Despite it being great, there are other films that have better chances to win Best Picture.

Top Gun: Maverick – The norm for Hollywood sequels for big hits is to wait two years, possibly three. There have been other films with longer waits, but they’ve mostly been flops. Now a sequel for Top Gun 36 years after the original seems hard to buy. I know there’s a lot of rebooting happening, especially of entertainment from the 80’s, but would a sequel for Top Gun work after this much time? Tom Cruise, director Eric Kosinski and the dream team of writers proved that it can. It can create a believable story set in the present and bring back the excitement of the first with adding new flares. Exciting film to watch and may have good chances of winning Best Picture, but normally the Academy doesn’t reward a film like this Best Picture.

Triangle Of Sadness- This is a film that caught a lot of people by surprise. A shocking story of a young model/influencer couple on a cruise with the mega-rich and they get lost at sea. The film consists of a lot of bizarre humor from the food choices of the rich to their behavior to the bizarre sinking of the ship to even the death of the donkey on the island. One can say this film is the crowning achievement for director Ruben Ostlund. It’s a dark comedy that comes as more entertaining than one would expect. It has a lot of Best Picture qualities, but its chances are slim compared to many others.

Women Talking –  This is another film that will catch one by surprise. This is a well-directed story that touches on a topic that’s rarely talked about. It’s also a shocking reminder that even is these times of modernization, there are still these religious communities that have their own society and own rules separate from the outside world and a clearly dominated by the patriarchy. This story also shows how women who had been denied so much are able to achieve their own empowerment when they band together. It’s a slow story that catches your intrigue over time. Despite it, I feel it’s the film with some of the least chances of winning Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything, Everywhere All At Once

The Academy has been known to have interesting picks for their Award winners. Sometimes they will give it to the legends with a lengthy career and sometimes they’ll give it to newcomers with a fresh unique idea. This year, it looks like the favorite to win the Best Director Oscar is a duo of directors known as “The Daniels.” Kwan and Scheinert have had their start with doing music videos and short films that caught a lot of eyes. They’ve only had one other feature-length film they directed together. This film is not only the best they directed together, but also an excellent film-of-the-absurd that people will find very entertaining. Even if most won’t understand it, they will love the comedy of it. This is a very complex story which must have been difficult to put all together, but The Daniels mastered it! Deserving Oscar winners.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

The most interesting thing about this year’s nominees is that sixteen of the twenty acting nominations are for first-time nominees: the most ever! The Best Actor category, which is normally the most veteran-friendly category and has the least first-time nominations, is completely filled with first-time nominees! For this category I pick Brendan Fraser’s performance to win. Many people were not up for seeing The Whale. I can understand because it is a depressing story based on a stage play. Fraser does an excellent performance of a 600 lb. man who’s coming close to the end of his life and comes to terms with a lot of hard truths in his life while attempting to make peace with the people around him. He also plays his role as an oversized person with sensitivity and with respect. Usually the Best Actor category is one of the most decisive categories, but this has been a tough battle between Fraser and Austin Butler in Elvis. The Oscar year began with Butler the heavy favorite as Elvis but I feel it’s Fraser’s turn on Oscar night.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

This year achieved a feat of four Asian actors receiving Oscar nominations for the first time! Three of them are from Everything Everywhere All At Once. Michelle Yeoh herself made history as the first Asian actress to be nominated in the Best Actress category! It’s easy to see why she is nominated. Her story is very complex going from a simple business owner to travelling through so many universes as she contemplates the life she could have had. Those who’ve seen the movie will know this is a very complex thing to do to deliver a performance with so many complex characters and put it all together. Michelle is very deserving of the win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Everything Everywhere All At Once is not only the story of Evelyn. It’s also of her family in the many universes, including her husband Waymond in the Alphaverse. Quan delivers a performance that adds to the story and is also able to steal the show from Evelyn at times. This role is also the role Ke Huy has been waiting a long time for. Until now, he’s been mostly remembered as a child actor for roles like Short Round in Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom and Richard “Data” Wang in The Goonies. Over time, he took on a career in film production but only recently returned to acting. It was Crazy Rich Asians, the film that starred his co-star Michelle Yeoh, that made him want to return! The timing couldn’t have been better because this performance is worthy of the Oscar win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Will Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees Of Inisherin

Very often the major Oscar category that’s hardest to predict is the Supporting Actress category. Favorites often do win in this category, but this is a category with some of the most shocking upsets. This year still leaves many undecided. Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe. Jamie Lee Curtis of Everything Everywhere All At Once won the SAG Award. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA (British Academy Award). Those three are the biggest favorites. I myself feel Angela Bassett deserves to win because of how well she played Queen Ramonda. I feel it will go to Kerry Condon. Even though I don’t have her as my Should Win pick, I feel she’s still deserving as the sister who is helpful to Padraic and his friends and seeks a life outside of Inisherin.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Sarah Polley – Women Talking

This is the film with the most Canadian content.The film is based off a novel from Manitoba-writer Miriam Toews. The writer/director is Sarah Polley. Most Canadians still remember her as Sarah Stanley from Road To Avonlea, but she’s grown into a major force in directing and writing. This is a powerful story where most of the action takes place in a single room and is involved in making a tense decision. The story is full of fear, anger, hurt, frustration and hope. This is a film with an important message to send and it does so with a story that’s full of depth and human emotion. That’s why I feel Polley will be a deserving Oscar winner tomorrow.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

This is another tight category as it’s the Daniels against Martin McDonagh’s script for The Banshees Of Inisherin. I predict that to be the script most likely to upset. I still have a feeling that Everything Everywhere All At Once will be the script that wins. It’s a complex story that goes over so many universes and yet still manages to pull it all together at the end. It’s because of this complexity that I predict the Daniels to take the Oscar in this category.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Alright. Now that I’m done speaking my mind on the major categories, I will be straightforward and give straight predictions of the technical categories. Only in very few categories where I feel I’m qualified to make such a judgement will you see me give a Should Win pick. So here goes:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win: Roger Deakins – Empire of Light
Will Win: Mandy Walker – Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Should Win: Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Will Win: Catherine Martin – Elvis

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Navalny

BEST FILM EDITING

Should Win and Will Win: Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: All Quiet On The Western Front (Germany)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signnoretti – Elvis

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Volker Bertelman – All Quiet On The Western Front
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win: “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino – Babylon

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Should Win and Will Win: Avatar: The Way Of Water

BEST AMINATED SHORT FILM and BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Predictions can be seen in this blog. Click here.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Prediction can be seen in this blog. Click here.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

Sometimes I like predicting which upsets will happen to my main predictions for wins. I know I predict Dune to clean up in all of its technical categories but the Oscars have always had a surprise or two and I’m expecting surprises for this year. Here are the six biggest surprises I anticipate, and they’re listed in category order:

  • Austin Butler for Best Actor in Elvis
  • Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress in Everything Everywhere All At Once
  • Martin McDonagh for Best Original Screenplay for The Banshees Of Inisherin
  • James Friend for Best Cinematography for All Quiet On The Western Front
  • Top Gun: Maverick for Best Visual Effects
  • Ice Merchants for Best Animated Short Film

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 95th Academy Awards. Tune in tomorrow night where you can see the winners and maybe a spontaneous shocker!

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My Predictions For The 2022 Academy Award Nominations

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Yep, it’s that time of the year again. The Oscar nominations. The day when we learn of the contenders for the Best Picture and the ‘final five’ for all the other categories. Lots of talk is bound to happen about the nominees. There will also be lots of talk about the highly lauded performances that got snubbed out. The Oscar snubs are what I describe as our annual reminder that sometimes, excellent isn’t good enough. Nevertheless the nominated performances and nominated films should tell a lot about which films hte Academy could favor come the day of the Awards.

This year’s Oscar awards will be awarded on Sunday, March 12th. This year’s nominations will be happening Monday. Two weeks earlier than last year. This has been a case of an adjustment every year as it tries to get back to the way things were before the COVID pandemic. In the meantime, here are my predictions for this year’s Academy Award nominations:

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar:Way Of The Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
Edward Berger – All Quiet On The Western Front
Todd Field – Tar
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Tar
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwiler – Till
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brian Tyre Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Dolly de Leon – Thriangle Of Sadness

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Todd Field – Tar
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stockell – All Quiet On The Western Front
Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said
Sarah Polley – Women Talking

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel The Shell With The Shoes On
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Russell Carpenter – Avatar: Way Of The World
Roger Deakins – Empire Of Light
Greg Fraser – The Batman
Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick
Mandy Walker – Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris
Ruth Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin – Elvis
Gersha Phillips – The Woman King
Mary Zophres – Babylon

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All The Beauty And Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire Of Love
Navalny

BEST FILM EDITING
Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick
Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar – The Fabelmans
Mikkel Nielsen – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet On The Western Front – Germany
Argentina, 1985 – Argentina
Close – Belgium
Decision To Leave – South Korea
EO – Poland

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Babylon
The Batman
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Carter Burwell – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hilda Gudnadottir – Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
John Williams – The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Carolina” – Where The Crawdads Sing
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Life Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind And Me” – Selena Gomez: My Mind And Me
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on The Western Front
Avatar: Way Of The Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis

BEST SOUND
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: Way Of The Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: Way Of The Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
New Moon
Save Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
38 At The Garden
The Elephant Whisperers
The Flagmakers
How Do You Measure A Year?
Nuisance Bear

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
The Red Suitcase
Warsha

Just like I did in past years, I not only did predictions for the nominees but also possible upsetters in most of the categories. Those who’ve tracked Oscar nominations over the years will be very familiar with upsetters. So here are my picks for the potential upsetters:

BEST PICTURE
Aftersun
The Whale
The Woman King

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron – Avatar: Way Of The Water
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

BEST ACTOR
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Hugh Jackman – The Son

BEST ACTRESS
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Margot Robbie – Babylon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Park Chan-wook and Jeong Seo-gyong – Decision To Leave
Ruben Ostlund – Triangle Of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Five writers – Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Inu Oh
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
James Friend – All Quiet On The Western Front
Janusz Kaminski – The Fabelmans

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans
Jenny Eagan – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Moonage Daydream
The Territory

BEST FILM EDITING
Sven Budelman – All Quiet On The Western Front
Five editors – Avatar: Way Of The Water

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Holy Spider – Denmark
The Quiet Girl – Ireland

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet On The Western Front
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Simon Franglen – Avatar: Way Of The Water
Ludwig Goransson – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Applause” – Tell It Like A Woman
“Stand Up” – Till

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST SOUND
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness
Thirteen Lives

Those are my predictions for the nominations for the 2022 Academy Awards. The nominees will be revealed the morning of Tuesday the 24th. Lots of talk for who will be nominated expected. Lots of talk of the snubs expected too, of couse. Ya gotta love social media!

My Predictions For The 2021 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The date of the Oscars have been moved up an extra month from last year’s awards. One thing that hasn’t changed is that we’re still in the midst of a pandemic, but we are seeing a possible end in sight. Also unlike last year, we had a lot of chances this year to see films in the theatres. Although you can be sure many people did not want to go inside a theatre. They were still nervous, and understandably so. Once again, the Academy was a bit more forgiving towards streamed films although it still encouraged theatre releases. Nevertheless streaming was still the best way to get your view of the Oscar contenders for this year.

This year’s Oscars are to be held on Sunday March 27th. The show is bringing all the stars back in the theatre and with spectators. There is planning to be a big revamp of the Oscars show, and you can understand why. In 2021, almost every awards got less than half the ratings they got the previous year. Even the Oscars weren’t immune as they got their lowest ever and also cut in half! You can understand why a lot of changes to the show. Also the controversial choice of them to have unbroadcasted awardings of seven “lesser” categories. To thing it created a firestorm in 2019, but they are going ahead with it this time. The stars and presenters have all been announced. This will be the first Oscars since 2018 with a host, and there will be three comediennes hosting. That should add to the fun! So now here are my picks for the winners of the 2021 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, it’s tradition for Olly Gibbs to do a Best Picture drawing that sums up the Oscars well. Great stuff with the ten! While I had to stream all of last year’s Best Picture contenders, this year I only had to stream two. I saw two during the VIFF and six others in the cinema. I like going back to the theatre to see film. It always looks better on the big screen. Since I’ve been taking a lot of courses lately, I didn’t have time to write reviews of all the Best Picture nominees. I think that will come in time. In the meantime here’s my summary of the ten Best Picture nominees:

Belfast- It seems like a film hard to describe. One minute, it’s about a child caught in between political conflict. Another minute, it’s a child living out his childhood and dreaming. One minute you see scenes of hostile hatred and violence. Another minute you get the warm-and-fuzzy moments of the closeness of the family. You figure the two elements won’t mix in a film, but Kenneth Branagh makes it work in a story that’s as charming as it is intense. That’s what Belfast was in the eyes of Little Kenny Branagh. My favorite of the ten-set, but one thing I’ve noticed in the 20 years of tracking the Oscar races is that warm-and-fuzzy films have less of a chance than ever of winning Best Picture. And this film is no exception.

CODA- The buzz started out slow and grew. Now it’s the heavy favorite and both my Will Win and Should Win pick. This is a story you rarely hear about, but it’s worthy of knowing. It does an excellent job of focusing in on what it’s like to be a child of deaf parents and the insecurities they can feel as they’re young. At the same time, it’s of a 17 year-old girl realizing of a talent she never knew she had and having dreams and goals along with it. It also includes the hurdles she has to overcome as her deaf parents and deaf brother are struggling to go into the fishing industry for themselves. It’s also a story of people with a disability and how they are trying to fit into the world, and of how left-out they can feel. This is a very multi-dimensional story that’s deep and a joy to watch too.

Don’t Look Up- What can I say? This is an end-of-the-world story that becomes a comedy about how everyone else from everyday citizens to showbiz hosts to political powers would take such an encroaching incident. And it’s done so with Adam McKay’s bluntly cynical no-apologies cuss-laden fist-in-your-face style of humor! The same comedic vibe McKay brought showing bankers treat the mortgage industry like a toy in The Big Short and showing how former vice president Dick Cheney infamously shaped US politics to be the way we know it in Vice is back in this apocalyptic story. You will be disgusted with what you see, but also think to yourself “I can see that happening” at the same time. On top of that the film ends with what you first think of as a sad ending, but actually an ending that will make you angry. However I don’t this sad comedy about “common nonsense” has what it takes to contend for the Best Picture win.

Drive My Car- It seems like for the fast few years, there would always end up being at least one Best Picture contender that’s a foreign-language film. Not every year exactly, but often enough to think that. This year, it’s a Japanese film. Despite it being slow and too long, this is an impressive story of how two strangers from two completely different world and endured two different tragedies end up being united together through the grief they share. And done during the rehearsals and eventual performances of Uncle Vanya in Hiroshima. It’s a film where one will not sense a connection at first and doesn’t become apparent over the run of the story until the end. The connection was there, but only the two knew it. And it was through sharing the heartache that we see the bond. Excellent surprise contender for this year, but a foreign-language film like this will need Parasite-sized buzz in order to win Best Picture..

Dune- Three of the ten Best Picture nominees are remakes or re-adaptations. This is a remake of a David Lynch film from the 80’s that didn’t go too far. Frankly David Lynch was more of a director for arthouse cinema than sci-fi. This revamp by Denis Villeneuve is just what we needed. Sci-fi is more welcome than ever and its writing has definitely improved with time. This film really makes the story come alive and capture our attention with amazing visual effects and edge-of-your-seat moments. A great accomplishment. However the Academy hardly ever rewards sci-fi with the Best Picture Oscar.

King Richard- We all know the Williams sisters, but few of us really know of their father Richard. We may see one image of Richard Williams and have one set of feelings about him, but this film shows a whole new angle to Richard Williams. One whom very few of us know about. It gives a sense of the man and his beliefs. However it also shows how his influence can be overbearing to others. It’s interesting to watch and deserving of its Best Picture nomination, but I don’t think it will win.

Licorice Pizza- This is a rarity. A Best Picture contender that doesn’t have to get you thinking too much. A Best Picture contender that you can just simply sit back and enjoy. Mind you I didn’t entirely welcome this at first. I was frequently wondering what is up with independent filmmakers and their love affair with the 1970’s that they can’t let go of it? Despite that, I enjoyed seeing this film about a love between a former child actor and an older woman trying to make her way in the world. And what’s a story about 70’s love without an awesome soundtrack to go with it? This film is second only to Belfast of the contenders I’ve enjoyed. However I don’t see the Academy going for a comedy like this.

The Power Of The Dog- To think we were all talking about gay cowboys when Brokeback Mountain looked like a heavy favorite to win the 2005 Oscar. For those that don’t know, The Power Of The Dog was originally a novel written in 1967 when same-sex love was still criminalized in the US and homosexuality was still labeled a form of mental illness. You can imagine to raised eyebrows back then. It would also inspire Annie Proulx to write her short story Brokeback Mountain and the rest in history! This is an intriguing story of Phil Burbank: a man who you will first think of as despicable, but he’s harboring a secret. At first you think Peter Gordon would be the victim of his that would get hurt the hardest. Instead he ends up being the one person Phil is able to soften up to and come to terms with. It started out with huge buzz winning major awards, but the Producers Guild Award going to CODA has made it lose some ground. I predict this film as the one Most Likely To Upset.

Nightmare Alley- The question is would you watch a remake of a 1940’s film about a killer who escapes to a traveling freak show and finds love? The film didn’t hit it well at the box office but it does provide a lot in terms of spectacle, suspense and a story of intrigue. A lot has changed in terms of effects and dramatization in the seventysomething years since the original was released. Mind you Guillermo del Toro is the director who knows how to deliver the goods in this remake. Don’t forget Nightmare Alley is originally a novel so del Toro and co-writer Kim Gordon are free to do their own interpretation or adaptation of the story. And an excellent adaptation it is! Despite that, having the Best Picture nomination and nominations only in the technical categories is not going to help it win Best Picture.

West Side Story- Now most of us have already seen West Side Story. We’ve either seen it as the Broadway play, the 1961 film (which won Best Picture that year) or as a high school production. You have to ask do we really need a reboot of this Romeo And Juliet musical? Steven Spielberg is one director who can make us say “Yes!” Spielberg and writer Tony Kushner put some unique twists in this reboot of the legendary musical. One is turning the character of Anybodys from “tomboy” to a trans character. Another is the inclusion of a new character: Valentina, played by Rita Moreno, who played Anita in the 1961 film. But most noticeably for me, it’s the emotions being more intense. That is what stood out most in this musical remake. However even though I feel it deserves its Best Picture nomination, I don’t see lightning striking twice.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Jane Campion – The Power Of The Dog

Back when Campion was nominated in this category for The Piano in 1993, she became only the second female director in history to be nominated ever. The first being Lina Wertmuller, who died this past December. Campion already became the first female to achieve a second Best Director nomination. This time, she looks poised to be the third ever to win! And rightly so. She did an excellent job in directing a cinematic telling of a novel that has grown more significant over the years. She does a great job as both director and scriptwriter of conveying the insecurities of Phil Burbank and of how Peter Gordon is the only one who can soften him in any which way. Also showcasing it in Montana along with a cowboy’s way of life adds to the film. She makes a very deserving winner.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Will Smith – King Richard

A lot of people have had to struggle with accepting the actor/rapper formerly known as “The Fresh Prince” as a serious actor. One thing about this modern-day Academy is that they seem less willing than ever to give acclaim to A-listers. As for Will Smith, he’s received two Oscar nominations in the past, but neither achieved a SAG Award nomination. His performance in King Richard appears to be the performance that helped him win major awards right across the board. And rightly so. He does an excellent job in portraying Richard Williams in his emotions, his moral beliefs and his physical traits. He does an excellent job of portraying him inside out. That’s why I’m happy to say that Will Smith deserves the Oscar this year!

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

For those who remember Tammy Faye Messner (formerly Tammy Faye Bakker), one can easily see her as a cartoonish person. Her perkiness, her overly emotional personality, her heavy makeup, one can easily do a cartoonish impression of her. Jessica Chastain doesn’t do that. She does an excellent job in portraying Tammy Faye for all of her traits. She does a great job in depicting Tammy Faye’s entertaining style and her emotional personality, but she also taps into her deep feelings and her insecurities very well. Chastain does an excellent job in turning Tammy Faye from this cartoonish person to this person hurting deep inside that we all overlooked in the past. On top of that, Chastain does an excellent job of singing like Tammy Faye. It’s because off all that she mastered is why I feel Chastain is deserving of the Oscar!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Troy Kotsur – CODA

Can you believe Troy’s co-star Marlee Matlin is so far the only deaf actor to win an Oscar? Those that saw Children Of A Lesser God already know that. Troy is heavily poised to be the second, and rightly so. He does an excellent job of portraying a character who’s fun loving and loose one moment, but quietly hurting and full of insecurities the next. He does an excellent job of displaying through Frank Rossi the hidden insecurities of people with disabilities that we rarely see, or they might keep hidden. He helps us notice it and pay attention. It’s because of that I feel Troy deserves the Oscar in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Sometimes the Oscars for supporting performances go to performances of roles that know how to steal the show. Back when the first West Side Story was released, Rita Moreno played Anita and she won Best Supporting Actress. Yes, the Rita Moreno that plays Valentina in this adaptation. We’re very likely to see it happening again with Ariana DeBose. Those who remember Rita’s portrayal of Anita may be tempted to compare her performance to Ariana’s. Ariana adds her own twists to the role. One thing about the dancing is that Ariana’s appears to flow more freely while Rita’s is more fierce. Also the emotions Ariana conveys are more intense than the emotions Rita conveys. It’s because of this remastering of the role why I feel Ariana is a worthy winner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Sian Heder – CODA

It’s a shame that Sian Heder is not nominated for Best Director while CODA is heavily poised to win Best Picture. This could’ve been the second straight year of the Best Director category having two female nominations. Nevertheless her writing of the screenplay has not gone overlooked. In fact it has been heavily rewarded. And rightly so. She does as excellent of a job of depicting a story of a teenage girl who grew up in a deaf family and trying to master a newly discovered talent while also dealing with personal insecurities. She also does an excellent job of intertwining that with her deaf family and their own insecurities as they try to start a business and develop a sense of belonging in their fishing community. Something they feel they’re missing. Heder does more than just tell the story. She lets us experience the people surrounding it. That’s why I feel it deserves the Oscar in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win : Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up
Will Win: Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

I have to admit there are times I find Adam McKay’s fist-in-your-face style of humor annoying, but I have to say that the screenplay for Don’t Look Up is the best of the year. Sometimes the films I feel are the best aren’t exactly films among my favorites. However I won’t complain if Belfast wins. This story from Kenneth Branagh does an excellent job of telling the story of his childhood where he dreamed of the stage and screen while also living in Belfast around the time The Troubles first started and was becoming a threat to his family. Even to children like him. This story of a child playing and dreaming during political hostility and a family that stuck close together to protect each other makes for a deserving winner of this category.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Alright. Now that I’m done speaking my mind on the major categories, I will be straightforward and give straight predictions of the technical categories. Only in very few categories where I feel I’m qualified to make such a judgement will you see me give a Should Win pick. So here goes:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: Encanto

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win: Ari Wegner – The Power Of The Dog
Will Win: Greig Fraser – Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Jenny Beavan – Cruella

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

BEST FILM EDITING

Should Win: Peter Sciberras – The Power Of The Dog
Will Win: Joe Walker – Dune

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Should Win and Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh – The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Jonny Greenwood – The Power Of The Dog
Will Win: Hans Zimmer – Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “No Time To Die” – No Time To Die

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune

BEST AMINATED SHORT FILM and BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Predictions can be seen in this blog. Click here.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Prediction can be seen in this blog. Click here.

**BONUS** OSCAR CHEER MOMENT
I know this is not really an official Oscars category and even some people panning this category, but I thought I’d give it a guess:

Will Win: Spider-Man Team-Up! – Spider-Man: No Way Home

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

Sometimes I like predicting which upsets will happen to my main predictions for wins. I know I predict Dune to clean up in all of its technical categories but the Oscars have always had a surprise or two and I’m expecting surprises for this year. Here are the six biggest surprises I anticipate, and they’re listed in category order:

  • Nicole Kidman for Best Actress in Being The Ricardos
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee for Best Supporting Actor in The Power Of The Dog
  • Attica for Best Documentary Feature
  • Pamela Martin for Best Film Editing for King Richard
  • “Dos Oruguitas” for Best Original Song in Encanto
  • Spider-Man: No Way Home for Best Visual Effects

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. Tune in tomorrow night where you can see the Oscars go back to being the Oscars. Let’s also hope they get their ratings back too!

My Predictions For The 2021 Oscar Nominations

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The one plus about this year’s Oscar nominations for this year is that it is more likely that you will be able to go to theatres. The restrictions are down, the theatres are open and you can watch on the big screen. Like movies are supposed to be seen. However do expect to see some of the Best Picture contenders and contenders in other categories on streaming services. Once again this year, the Academy is giving grace to films that could not be shown in theatres and streamed online. And I think it will continue this way until the whole world gets this pandemic under wraps and indoor visiting becomes as close to as free as it was before this pandemic.

This year’s Oscar awards will be awarded on Sunday, March 27th. The last Sunday of March. This year’s nominations will be happening tomorrow. More than a month earlier than last year. Part of the adjustment of slowly getting back to normal. Anyways here are my predictions for the Academy Award categories:

BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Power Of The Dog
tick,tick…BOOM!
Tragedy Of MacBeth
West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Jane Campion – Power Of The Dog
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve – Dune

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem – Being The Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch – Power Of The Dog
Andrew Garfield – tick,tick…BOOM!
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington – Tragedy Of MacBeth

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman – Being The Ricardos
Lady Gaga – House Of Gucci
Kristen Stewart – Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jared Leto – House Of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee – Power Of The Dog

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Catriona Balfe – Belfast
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst – Power Of The Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Ruth Negga – Passing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Asghar Farhadi – A Hero
Adam McKay and David Sirota – Don’t Look Up
Aaron Sorkin – Being The Ricardos

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jane Campion – Power Of The Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Tamakasa Oe – Drive My Car
Sian Heder – CODA
Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve – Dune

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya And The Last Dragon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Bruno Delbonnel – Tragedy Of MacBeth
Greig Fraser – Dune
Janusz Kaminsky – West Side Story
Ari Wegner – Power Of The Dog
Haris Zambarloukos – Belfast

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Jenny Beavan – Cruella
Massimo Cantini Parrini – Cyrano
Robert Morgan and Jacqueline West – Dune
Paul Tazewell – West Side Story
Janty Yates – House Of Gucci

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Flee
In The Same Breath
The Rescue
Summer Of Soul

BEST FILM EDITING
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn – West Side Story
Uni Ni Dhonghaile – Belfast
Andy Jurgenson – Licorice Pizza
Peter Sciberras – Power Of The Dog
Joe Walker – Dune

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Drive My Car – Japan
Flee – Denmark
The Hand Of God – Italy
A Hero – Iran
The Worst Person In The World– Norway

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House Of Gucci

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nicholas Britell – Don’t Look Up
Alexandre Desplat – The French Dispatch
Germaine Franco – Encanto
Jonny Greenwood – Power Of The Dog
Hans Zimmer – Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” – King Richard
“Dos Uguguitas” – Encanto
“Down To Joy” – Belfast
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” – Respect
“Just Look Up” – Don’t Look Up

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Power Of The Dog
West Side Story

BEST SOUND
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
A Quiet Place Part II
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Just like I did in past years, I not only did predictions for the nominees but also possible upsetters in most of the categories. Those who’ve tracked Oscar nominations over the years will be very familiar with upsetters. So here are my picks for the potential upsetters:

BEST PICTURE
Being The Ricardos
Cyrano
Drive My Car

BEST DIRECTOR
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

BEST ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Swan Song
Peter Dinklage – Cyrano

BEST ACTRESS
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan – Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ann Dowd – Mass
Rita Moreno – West Side Story

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers
Zach Baylin – King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Joel Coen – Tragedy of MacBeth
Tony Kushner – West Side Story

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Sunny Maad
Sing 2

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dan Lautsen – Nightmare Alley
Linus Sandgren – No Time To Die

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – Coming 2 America
Luis Sequeira – Nightmare Alley

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Attica
Procession

BEST FILM EDITING
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum – tick, tick…BOOM!
Pamela Martin – King Richard

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Compartment No.6 – Finland
Prayers For The Stolen – Mexico

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alberto Iglesias – Parallel Mothers
Daniel Pemberton – Being The Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Beyond The Shore” – CODA
“No Time To Die” – No Time To Die

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Belfast
Nightmare Alley

BEST SOUND
Belfast
No Time To Die

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
No Time To Die

Those are my predictions for the nominations for the 2021 Academy Awards. The nominees will be revealed the morning of Tuesday the 8th. It will be interesting which expected ones got it and which unexpected ones got it too!

My Predictions For The 2020 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

To think that before 2020, the Academy was strict about having films viewed in theatres. Internet films were off limits. Then the pandemic happened. Most of the theatres were closed. Most films had to put themselves on online streaming services to have themselves viewed. The Academy became more forgiving in that aspect and allowed for more streamed films to be submitted as entries. The pandemic also caused the Oscars themselves to be delayed until the last Sunday of April. That also meant those other ‘influencer’ award shows would have to delay in compensation of the pandemic too.

Whatever the situation, I was able to see all eight Best Picture nominees. Yes, it involved signing up for more than one streaming service and renting movies on Youtube, but it had to be this year. Hopefully next year, I’ll be back in the theatres. As for this year, I saw them all and now I’m ready to make my opinions for the winners for the 93rd Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Last year, Olly Gibbs did a similar picture of the Best Picture contenders. This year he does it again! I’ll bet most of you who have seen any of the Best Picture nominees most likely saw it through a streaming service. That seems to be the case this year. The favorites were seen through a wide variety of streaming methods like Netflix, Hulu, Disney+ or Amazon Prime. For most, it was the only way to access any of the Best Picture nominees.

Normally I’d publish separate reviews of the various Best Picture nominees and include the link to the blog in my review. This was not the case that I reviewed them before Oscar day. Separate reviews will have to come later. In the meantime, here’s my take on the eight Best Picture nominees:

The Father: To make a film about dementia that’s watchable is a big challenge. Having a lead actor like Anthony Hopkins helps. However this is a unique story as it goes through the father’s life as he and his daughter are going through major changes in their lives. The father’s struggle with dementia gives hints to his past. It makes for a unique and telling story. However I don’t see it as having what it takes to win Best Picture.

Judas And The Black Messiah: This is the story of the Black Panther with a big following and the FBI agent who sets him up for his assassination. It’s to do about a powerful leader who had a love for his woman and the FBI who poses as the leader’s friend only to lead him to the fatal heist. This is an intriguing story that gives you a piece of history that is often overlooked. Also it provides insight on the secret that haunted the FBI agent until the end of his life. Excellent film worthy of Best Picture, but unable to contend due to the tightness of this year’s competition.

Mank: For those who like seeing films of the Golden Age of Hollywood, you’ll like seeing Mank. This is a film that focuses on Herman Mankiewicz, Hollywood scriptwriter and producer. It focuses on his messing with the political system, his difficulties in the Hollywood studio system and his struggle with alcohol. It presents a unique story for someone that should be presented as unlikeable as most of the Hollywood producers should be seen. This is a film with Best Picture marked on it, but a certain other film has better Best Picture clout.

Minari: There have been stories of immigrants in pursuit of the American Dream before. This is a unique story because it’s of Korean farmers seeking to pursue the American Dream in Arkansas in the 1980’s. It’s of a family that tries to pursue a better life, brings the grandmother over in hopes to build the family back up, and a son struggling with a heart condition. This is a very personal story from writer/director Lee Isaac Chung. It has Best Picture potential, but there are at least three other films that are seen as stronger contenders.

Nomadland: This is an introspective look at the modern-day American nomad. Desperation in an economy that failed them is what caused them to adopt this modern style of the nomad life. However it’s something that they don’t just simply get used to doing, but it becomes a lifestyle for all those involved. There is a central character named Fern who first appears she has no choice but to accept this nomad life. Even as things don’t get any better, she learns to make it her own life, embrace her experiences, and then be able to say goodbye to her own life. This is an excellent personal story that really caught a lot of people’s eyes. That’s why I make it my Will Win pick.

Promising Young Woman: This is definitely a film that’s been made with rage in mind. And good reason. When the #MeToo movement came out, it highlighted a lot of problems. This is a rape revenge film that focuses on a friend’s rape and the failings that went around her like the friend who wouldn’t believe, the college system that hides things for the protection of their reputation, the friend of the rapist who watched and did nothing. The film also focuses on the culture of misogyny that provokes date rape. Cassie is the central figure that first comes off like she is the one to put misogyny in its place and later tries to get revenge for her friend’s rape. I think it’s the Generation X-er in me that likes how this film is like a lightning rod on society. That’s why I call it my Should Win pick.

Sound Of Metal– This is a unique story of a drummer who goes deaf and doesn’t know how to struggle with hearing loss. His willingness to accept deafness and move on with his life or his desire for a hearing implant that will give him his old life back is the central part of the story. This is a very good story that relies on images and sounds to tell of the musician’s struggle and also of the new life he tries to get used to. Very good film. Also in a year where this year’s batch of Best Picture contenders have been commonly described as ‘a pack of downers,’ this is the most uplifting film without going too overboard in its uplifting moments.

Trial Of The Chicago 7: This is a historical film that comes at the right time. It was released at a time when there was, and still is, a lot of political turmoil in the United States. It’s about a group of men arrested and tried for taking a stand for what they believed in. It’s about a corrupt judge who constantly made the wrong decisions on others. It’s about a political system that’s all about keeping the order of things. Centrally it’s about a leader who needed to fasce his fears and muster the courage displayed by the others. Excellent retelling of a historical moment. Among one of the top contenders for the win, but this is the year for Nomadland.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Directors nominate the Best Director nominees. This Oscar category is known for its all-too-frequent exclusion of female nominees. The first was back in 1976: Lina Wertmuller for Seven Beauties. Since then, it’s been Jane Campion for The Piano in 1993, Sofia Coppola, daughter of Francis Ford Coppola, for Lost In Translation in 2003, Kathryn Bigelow in 2009 for The Hurt Locker (which she won), and before this year, the last was Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird back in 2017. Five female nominees before the 2020 nominees were announced. This year made Oscar history as the first year two women were nominated for Best Director: Chloe Zhao and Emerald Fennell. The two female directors have the most talked-about films of this Oscar season: Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. It looks as though Zhao is poised to become only the second female winner of the Best Director category.

Also who knows after this year? Maybe in the future, two or three female Best Director nominees will become the annual norm.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Most of us will remember Chadwick Boseman as T’Challa the Black Panther in the MCU. Since his death, there has been a lot of attention paid to a lot of his other works of the past. As 2020 was drawing to a close, the big focus was his performance as Levee Green in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In fact it’s his performance as Levee that steals the show from Ma. It makes it more the story about Levee’s own struggle for fame and fortune and his inner hurt and struggles. His portrayal of Levee Green cuts deep to the core. Giving him the Best Actor Oscar is the best way to remember him.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Boseman may have stolen the film as Levee Green, but Viola’s performance of Ma Rainey helped give this film its powerful 1-2 punch. Davis’ character is both that of an entertainer whose beloved and a person subject to the same hurt and harshness a black woman in America gets. As she cuts her record Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, you can tell the wrath she feels towards her lifetime and her struggles are present in the story. That’s why I feel Viola deserves the Best Actress Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah

This year’s Oscars had a surprise with two Supporting Actor nominations for Judas And The Black Messiah. The nomination for Kaluuya was not a surprise as he won the Golden Globe for supporting actor. The nomination for LaKeith Stanfield was a surprise as it was felt Stanfield played the lead as Bill O’Neal. That had a lot of people wondering who’s the lead if O’Neal is supporting? I can’t answer that question. I will say that Stanfield didn’t get a single lead acting win or nomination so the Supporting Actor campaign was very successful here. Nevertheless the film belongs to Kaluuya for his performance of the late Black Panther Fred Hampton. He was very good at portraying Hampton both as a rebel with a cause and as a man with a lot of love.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

Youn Yuh-jung is an actress with an illustrious career in South Korea. Minari is pretty much the film where she’s introduced to North America. And it’s a great performance as a grandmother who first exhibits over-the-top behavior to becoming closer with grandson David to struggling with life after a stroke. She helped make the grandmother the central character of the story and it’s because of this I feel she should win here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

For a long time, Emerald Fennell was just another struggling actress. Her biggest success is in the British television series Call The Midwife. She also had good roles in film such as in Anna Karenina, Pan and The Danish Girl. Her first attempt at directing and writing was in the short film Careful How You Go. Promising Young Woman is her first attempt at a feature-length film and boy is it an eyebrow raiser. There have been ‘rape revenge’ movies before, but this is a film that doesn’t just get revenge on the rapist. It’s a story of one who has a reckoning of all those involved in her best friend’s rape like the friend that didn’t believe her, the college administration ‘protecting the boys’ futures,’ the lawyer who was menacing to the victim upon his client’s command, and the friend of the rapist who just watched and stood by. This is an angry film, but well written and well thought-out. Fennell’s feature went the furthest this year.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

For those that read Jessica Bruder’s book Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century, one would know it’s not a novel. It’s a set of stories of people that are modern-day nomads in America. Zhao was able to create a story of a fictional woman coming from an actual economic setback. She makes a nomad of herself because of the desperate times she was going through and of the people she meets along the way. It has a beginning, middle and end and it’s a story that is a reflection of life. That’s why Nomadland has to be the winner here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Soul

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win and Will Win: Eric Messerschmidt – Mank

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Ann Roth – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen – Sound Of Metal

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste – Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “Speak Now” – One Week In Miami

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Donald Graham Burt & Jan Pascale – Mank

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Sound Of Metal

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: The Midnight Sky

SHORT FILM PREDICTIONS

For my reviews of the nominees and predictions for the wins for the various shorts categories, just click here for Animation and Live-Action and here for Documentaries.

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the six upsets I anticipate are most likely to happen. In category order:

  • Carey Mulligan for Best Actress in Promising Young Woman
  • Maria Balakova for Best Supporting Actress in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Lee Isaac Chung for Best Original Screenplay for Minari
  • Joshua James Richards for Best Cinematography for Nomadland
  • Time for Best Documentary
  • Tenet for Best Visual Effects

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the winners of the 93rd Academy Awards. The Oscars ceremony promises to be like a film. We’ll have to wait and see!

My Predictions For The 2020 Oscar Nominations

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

This year’s Oscars may not make you want to go to the theatres, but it will make you stream like crazy. This year may have a lot of cases where movie theatres were either forced to close or limit capacity because of health regulations. This year also made may film companies send many Oscar-calibre films to streaming services since theatrical release would be harder than ever to achieve. The Academy has been very forgiving in this situation. They’ve loosened up the rules for this year in particular to allow movies that only had a streaming life have Oscar eligibility. What can I say? Nobody wanted this pandemic. Especially since many people are now labeling this period of time the ‘Coronaversary!’Has it been a year already?

In a regular year, the Oscars would have been awarded by now. Actually the last Sunday of February. This year the nominations are delayed until March 15th. Nevertheless it has still kept Oscar-trackers like myself busy. And I’m ready to make my predictions for this year:

BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas And The Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News Of The World
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound Of Metal
Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
Aaron Sorkin – Trial Of The Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland


BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed – Sound Of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Gary Oldman – Mank
Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day – The United States Vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces Of A Woman
Frances Mcdormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial Of The Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night In Miami
Paul Raci – Sound Of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Balakova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close – Hilbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Berson and Shaka King – Judas And The Black Messiah
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher – Mank
Aaron Sorkin – Trial Of The Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies – News Of The World
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller – The Father
Kemp Powers – One Night In Miami
Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Farmageddon: A Shaun The Sheep Movie
Onward
Over The Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Eric Messerschmidt – Mank
Lachlan Milne – Minari
Joshua James Richards – Nomadland
Darius Wolski – News Of The World
Hoyte Van Hoytema – Tenet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne – Emma
Ann Roth – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Trish Summerville – Mank
Bina Daigeler – Mulan
Susan Harman and David Wolsky – The Personal History Of David Copperfield

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Dick Johnson Is Dead
MLK – FBI
My Octopus Teacher
Time
The Truffle Hunters

BEST FILM EDITING
Kirk Baxter – Mank
Harry Yoon – Minari
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
Frederic Thoraval – Promising Young Woman
Alan Baumgarten – Trial Of The Chicago 7

BEST HAIR and MAKEUP
Birds of Prey
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
One Night In Miami

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round – Denmark
Collective – Romania
Dear Comrades – Russia
La Llorona – Guatemala
Two Of Us – France

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Mank
Alexandre Desplat – The Midnight Sky
James Newton Howard – News Of The World
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Soul
Ludwig Goranson – Tenet

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight For You” – Judas And The Black Messiah
“Io Se (Seen) – The Life Ahead (La vita davanti a sé)
“Hear My Voice” – Trial Of The Chicago 7
“Husavik” – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story Of Fire Saga
“Speak Now” – One Night In Miami

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Emma
Mank
News Of The World
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Tenet

BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News Of The World
Nomadland
Sound Of Metal

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Birds Of Prey
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet


Just like I did in past years, I not only did predictions for the nominees but also possible upsetters in most of the categories. With this year being a year where most films were streamed, there could be upsets a pleanty. So here are my picks for the potential upsetters:

BEST PICTURE
Da 5 Bloods
One Night In Miami

BEST DIRECTOR
Regina King – One Night In Miami
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

BEST ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Steven Yeun – Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Sidney Flanagan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Rosamund Pike – I Care A Lot

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto – The Little Things
Bill Murray – On The Rocks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
Helena Zengel – News Of The World

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eliza Hittman – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Abraham And Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ramin Bahrani – White Tiger
Jonathan Raymond And Kelly Reichardt – First Cow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods: A New Age
The Willoughbys

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Phedon Papamichael – Trial Of The Chicago 7
Newton Thomas Sigel – Da 5 Bloods

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck – One Night In Miami
Nancy Steiner – Promising Young Woman

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Painter And The Thief
Welcome To Chechnya

BEST FILM EDITING
Yorgos Lamprinos – The Father
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen – Sound Of Metal

BEST HAIR and MAKEUP
Emma

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Night Of The Kings – Cote D’Ivoire
Quo Vadis Aida? – Bosnia-Hercegovina

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Emile Mosseri – Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Loyal Brave True” – Mulan

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

BEST SOUND
Soul
Trial Of The Chicago Seven

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Soul
Welcome To Chechnya

Those are my predictions for the nominations for the 2020 Academy Awards. The nominees will be revealed the morning of Monday the 15th. We’ll wait and see what the decisions are!

My Predictions For the 2019 Academy Awards

Jon The Blogcentric

Chocolate Oscar

It’s interesting that this year’s Oscars are being held the second Sunday of February. Usually they’re held the last Sunday or the first Sunday of March in a Winter Olympic year. It was pretty evident will all my cramming of my Best Picture reviews. I didn’t start until three weeks to go and I didn’t think I could review all nine in time. But I did! The last of the Best Picture reviews I posted on Wednesday. Next year they’ll be going back to the last Sunday of February. So hopefully reviewing them all will be a lot more relaxed.

Anyways I’m able to make predictions for this year’s Oscars. I’m even able to make some calls for what should win in some categories. I’ve seen enough films to make up 96 of the 124 nominations. They range from single-nomination films like Knives Out to Joker with the most nominations with eleven in total. Most categories have been very predictable with the same film or same effort winning film award after film award. That could help me with my Oscar bingo I’ll be playing once again this Sunday! However there are a few that appear unpredictable. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2019 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Oscar nominees

All credit to Olly Gibbs for that excellent image of this year’s nominees. This year has a wide range of film among the nine nominees. Two are set during World Wars. Two are written and directed by a Hollywood couple. Four have had a domestic gross at the box office of over $100 million. Two are films that got moved to NetFlix after an initial box-office release. One is done by a master of gangster movies and another is done by his heir apparent, but not a gangster movie at all. One is a modern-day adaptation of a classic novel. One is a fictional account of a cartoon villain. One is of car racing. One is of a failing marriage. One if of classic Hollywood. One is of Hitler through a child’s eyes. One is a possible answer to a popular whodunit. One is of a journey during war. And one is of an impoverished family trying to break free. All are seen worthy of being nominated in the Best Picture category this year. So here is my rundown of the Best Picture nominees:

1917 – War movies usually win the Academy over, as long as they’re done well. This has been the darling of most awards shows. I predict this as my Will Win pick. I myself admire it for its cinematography and it’s storytelling, but it’s not the film I most want to win Best Picture. Usually for Best Picture, I feel it should have much of the best of the year in the three top categories: acting, directing and writing.

Ford v Ferrari – Very rarely do auto racing movies get nominated for Best Picture. This is more than an auto racing film. It’s about those that were behind the big moment and the family relation of the racer who was shunned behind. Definitely a crowd-pleaser, but it doesn’t look like an Academy-pleaser.

The Irishman – What can I say? This is the film in which I most want to win because this is a film that went above and beyond what I expected out of it. I admire films that go above and beyond what I expect. Plus it had top-notch acting, directing and writing. However it lost a lot of its energy it had back in November. That’s why I think it won’t win.

Jojo Rabbit – This is one movie that would normally not be Best Picture material. I have to say of all nine Best Picture nominees, this is my favorite. This is the most entertaining of the nine. However I know how to separate my personal favorite from the films I feel are the best. Besides I know how stodgy the Academy is towards comedies.

Joker – Last year was something how a superhero movie finally got a Best Picture nomination. This year is a case of a story of the genesis of a villain won crowds and won movie awards. This is an impressive story too. However I feel that it faces stiff competition in the Best Picture race from other films.

Little Women – To think this is the first Little Women adaptation to be nominated for Best Picture! I can’t complain at all as the film took some different twists and it came out a winning story. I admire the way it was directed, written and acted, but there are films that have more boost in this competition.

Marriage Story – Sometimes all it takes to win people is a story that connects with people. That’s the magic of Marriage Story. This film’s best qualities are the acting and writing. However this is another film that appears prone to fall under the weight of bigger competition. Plus this being on NetFlix may be an additional reason why its chances were hurt.

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood – This is one salute to the Golden Age of Hollywood with a twist. Also it will cause a lot of people to reassess their definition of what a Quentin Tarantino movie is. I know my parents still think Tarantino movies are all ‘blood and guts’ but this film shows a side of Quentin most people overlook. I do rank this as a film in the Top 3 most expected to win, but it’s not my top pick. I think its summer release may have caused it to lose much of its buzz.

Parasite – This is definitely the foreign-language film of the year. Undisputed! This is my Should Win pick because this film has accomplished more than any of the other nine Best Picture nominees. It’s a case once again that the best film of the year is not in the English-language. However I’m very doubtful it will win. I remember last year Roma was the best film but it lost out to Green Book. That solidified my belief the Academy will never make a foreign-language film a Best Picture winner.

I know a lot of people often think the Academy Awards are a case of Hollywood patting itself on the back. One can say an excellent example of this was last year when Roma lost Best Picture to Green Book. If Once Upon A Time In Hollywood wins this, then it will further prove their point. I am very doubtful Parasite will win. However if 1917 wins, it won’t look like Hollywood patting itself on the back because it’s a British film!

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Will Win: Sam Mendes – 1917

I chose Bong Joon-ho naturally. Most people feel the common belief that The winner for Best Director should be the director of the Best Picture winner. It happens over 70% of the time at the Oscars. As a result my Best Director pick for Should Win is from the same film as my Should Win for Best Picture. I feel it’s right since Parasite is the film I admire most and it’s Bong who made it happen. I feel it will go to Sam Mendes because of his past awards success this year. Nevertheless I would not be disappointed if it did because 1917 is a film that’s worth admiring.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

What can I say? It’s not just about being widely praised as the acting performance of the year but of the movie role of the year. Nobody — not even the most loyal of Batman fans — expected Joker to be the film that it is. It’s a film that not only tells the story of the emergence of the Joker, the chaos of Gotham City and the genesis of Batman, but it takes one into the mind of Arthur Fleck. One knew that Arthur would snap any minute. What can I say? One could argue that it’s Joaquin that single-handedly made the work!

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Renee Zellweger – Judy

I never reviewed Judy in my blog after I saw it back in November. It’s an excellent story of a period in the last year of Judy Garland’s life. It focuses on her attempt for a comeback and how it appeared showbiz took everything out of her. It also flashed back to her childhood and how she was raised to think that a normal life that the other girls were having is for mortals. Renee was excellent in embodying Judy as she looked like a person who just couldn’t come to terms with herself and even feared what she would mostly be remembered for. Renee was spot on in epitomizing Judy from the voice, to the singing to the hostile attitude to the troubled personality to even writing left-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Will Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

One thing about this year’s acting nominees. A lot of people talked about the lack of racial diversity. That is true, and I even reminded people in social media of Spielberg saying the Academy is like a member-only club.

As for actors, another lack of diversity is that only six nominations went to performances from five actors who were never nominated before. For Supporting Actor, this is normally a ‘newbie-friendly’ category but all five have been nominated before in the past and only Brad Pitt has never won an Oscar. That appears likely to change as he is the heavy favorite to win for his scene-stealing in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. Actually Brad has enough screen time to qualify for the Best LEAD Actor category! However I would be likely to go with Joe Pesci for his portrayal as a mob boss who appears like a father figure. Nevertheless Sunday will be Brad’s moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Some performances nominated for Supporting Actor/Actress are usually lead roles that are ‘politicked’ as supporting roles, like I I mentioned about Brad Pitt earlier. Some supporting acting nominations and wins are because they’re good at stealing the show from the lead actors. And some nominations and wins in the supporting acting categories can also be because they do an excellent job of character acting. That’s why I have no problem with Laura Dern winning. She made you hate Nora! She did an excellent job as the manipulative sly-talking lawyer and she made her character of Nora almost look like she was a snake!  Actors are taught about even using animal-like behaviors to enhance characters. This award is Laura’s for the taking. And on the day before her 53rd birthday to boot!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Boon Jong-ho – Parasite

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

If there’s one major category that I feel will be the hardest to predict, it’s actually both screenplay categories. Lately some of the award shows have given alternating views on who they think is the best. I agree with what Bong Joon-ho said in his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes: “Once you overcome the one-inch-tall barrier of subtitles, you’ll be introduced to so many more amazing films.” I agree, but I doubt if the Academy agrees. Roma may have won last year, but I don’t think they’ll make it two in a row.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Steve Zaillian – The Irishman

Will Win: Greta Gerwig – Little Women

It’s interesting that Greta and her common-law partner Noah Baumbach are both nominated for screenplays this year. I had to go with The Irishman on this one because it’s a complex story that Zaillian is able to make work. I think they will give it to Great for putting a new twist to a story that’s been adapted numerous times. I think the biggest upset could come from Jojo Rabbit, but I’m still set on Little Women.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Toy Story 4

This year I did not see any of the nominated films. I only saw three animated films and none of them got nominated here. Even though Klaus won the Annie Award and the BAFTA, I have a feeling Disney is going to take it again. This is the one category Disney wants to win most. wouldn’t that be something if Toy Story 4 loses to a NetFlix film?

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Should Win and Will Win: Parasite (South Korea)

For those wondering, this is a new title for the category that used to be called Best Foreign Language Film. This year I saw four of the five nominees in this category, which is extremely rare for me. The others I saw are Pain And Glory, Honeyland and Corpus Christi. That means I can also make a ‘should win’ judgement in this category. It’s safe to say Parasite is the foreign-language film of the year. Also Honeyland makes history as the first documentary to be nominated in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Roger Deakins – 1917

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Jacqueline Durran – Little Women

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Honeyland

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Yang Jin-mo – Parasite

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker – Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – Rocketman

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: 1917

SHORT FILM PREDICTIONS

For my reviews of the nominees and predictions of the wins for Best Animated Short Film, Best Live-Action Short Film and Best Documentary Short Subject, click on this paragraph.

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the five upsets I anticipate are most likely to happen. In category order:

  • Taika Waititi for Best Adapted Screenplay for Jojo Rabbit
  • Klaus for Best Animated Feature
  • Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland for Best Film Editing for Ford v Ferrari
  • American Factory for Best Documentary Feature
  • The Lion King for Best Visual Effects

And there you go. My predictions for the winners, and possible upsetters of the 92nd Academy Awards. Having a hostless Oscars last year was such a success, they did it again this year. Will it be as entertaining? Will there be some shock winners like Olivia Colman was last year? It will all be decided Sunday night.

My Predictions For The 2018 Academy Awards

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

Chocolate Oscar

Holding this year’s Academy Awards has been a load of chaos going even as far back as August. The struggle had as its focus the record-low ratings of last year’s Oscars. Hey, when they keep on giving Best Picture to films with low grosses, they have that struggle coming. First there was an attempt to include a new category: Best Popular Film. Derision from critics, filmmakers and the public quickly rose and the category was dropped within a week. Then there was having Kevin Hart as the host. That seemed like a good idea, until he said something homophobic in his comedy. He apologized and even some celebrities came to his aid, but the hostility did not die. That meant no host this year: only the second Oscars to be hostless. Then came the procedure two weeks ago of four categories to be awarded during commercials with the presentation broadcast on livestream. Filmmakers and fans shouted their derision online and that led to the categories assigned back on broadcast.

All I can say about the ceremonies is what a headache for the organizers. The big question may not be ‘who will win what’ but ‘can they do a winning Oscars without a host?’ There has been one hostless Oscars in the past — the 61st in 1989 — and they went off very well despite the highlight being an unforgettably cheesy song-and-dance number with an awkward Snow White singing and dancing with Rob Lowe. This year’s hostless Oscars have yet to bee seen, but there have been other awards shows where there wasn’t a host.

The surprises weren’t just about the ceremony itself. The surprises were in the awards race too. One big shocker was a NetFlix film being a heavy favorite. Another was most of the Best Picture nominees snubbed in at least one category that effects their Best Picture standing: like in acting, directing, writing or film editing. Only BlacKkKlansman had nominations in all. Another was the double-snub of Emily Blunt in both acting categories to actresses of Roma that didn’t have as big of awards clout. Another was films with outside chances like Cold War and The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs garnering nominations. Guild awards provided other lopsided results too like SAGs giving snubbed-out Emily Blunt the Best Supporting Actress award, and the Writers Guild of America giving Bo Burnham the Best Original Screenplay award. With only days to go there’s still no clear favorite for Best Picture. Not even The Favourite!

However the awards results and the pictures themselves do give a good sense on who just could win. So without further ado, here are my predictions for who Will Win the Oscars as well as a Should-Win pick where I feel necessary. Also hyperlinks to my reviews are included.

BEST PICTURE

This year’s eight-pack of Best Picture nominees are quite unique and exhibit a lot in diversity. One is a film predominantly in Spanish. One is a superhero movie. Two are music-based. Three begin with the letter B. Three have African-Americans as their dominant or central characters. Five have some reference to LGBT people. All have a lot of awards clout and have paved their way successfully to their nominations. So here is my rundown of the Best Picture nominees:

Black Panther – The 21st Century is best remembered so far as the heyday of the superhero movie. For so long, people have waited for a superhero movie to get nominated for Best Picture. In fact the number of Best Picture entries was expanded past its traditional five when The Dark Knight didn’t get nominated. Finally a superhero movie is nominated. I can’t think of a better choice than Black Panther. It has all the qualities of a Best Picture contender — acting, directing, writing, and a lot more — but its buzz fell fast when its only other nominations were technical ones. I don’t think it will win.

BlacKkKlansman – Isn’t it something how Spike Lee went from boycotting the Oscars three years ago to becoming a nominee this year. Spike Lee has had a career with a lot of ups and downs. Ever since Do The Right Thing, he has struggled to get his greatness back. His success however has paved the way for other African American directors. BlacKkKlansman brought him back into major action. I consider this a top contender for the Best Picture award, but not necessarily the winner.

Bohemian Rhapsody – This film has all the ingredients of a Best Picture contender, especially a performance by the lead that will blow you away. The film also has a very critical weakness. That being the original director is an alleged sex offender. That may not hurt Rami’s chances for Best Actor, but it robs any and all chances of a Best Picture win for this film.

The Favourite – What’s the Oscar race without a timepiece set way back being a top contender for the Best Picture award? The Favourite is just that movie, and one of only two movies with ten nominations. The film has the ingredients to win Best Picture. However some may find the story too tempestuous and the film too eccentric to win the biggest award of the night.

Green Book – Overcoming racism has been a central theme in many a film in this year’s Oscar race. This is a film that may not be historically accurate, but it does make for a good film from start-to-finish with a good message. Much of it is true as Tony Lip’s son was the scriptwriter. It’s tight but I give this my Will Win pick.

Roma – This film is a thing of beauty. I can sum it up like that. For the record, no film predominantly in a foreign-language has ever won the Best Picture Oscar. I have a feeling that could rob Roma of the biggest award that night. However this is a close race and anything can happen. That’s why I give it my Should Win pick.

A Star Is Born – When the Oscar season began, this film had the biggest buzz. Especially with it being Lady Gaga’s big screen breakthrough. The film has all the ingredient for a Best Picture winner. However, this is a film that’s been done three times before. I don’t think the Academy is willing to give the Best Picture Oscar to a reboot.

Vice – If you remember The Big Short, you’ll see how Adam McKay lampooned the banking system and the games they were playing just as they were about to lead the US to its biggest recession since the Great Depression. Here McKay lampoons the American political system and how Dick Cheney played a major role in the political climate we have today both as Vice President and while holding other office. It’s as entertaining as The Big Short, but not as good. That’s where I feel Vice falls short in the Best Picture race.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

If you see Roma, you will see it’s more than just two women transformed in a changing time in Mexico. You will notice it’s a piece of Alfonso Cuaron’s childhood. He creates a masterpiece so beautiful and intimate, not even the images of the dog droppings can ruin its beauty. It’s a masterpiece of a film and I feel Cuaron deserves to win again.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Thirteen of this year’s twenty acting nominations are for performances of people that exist or have existed. In no other category is that best represented than in the Best Actor category. Bradley Cooper’s is the only nomination of a fictional person here. It’s a tough call between Christian Bale as Dick Cheney or Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury. I have to go with Malek because his performance was more dead-on while Bale’s was intended to be cartoonish in the way Adam McKay wanted it. Besides those that saw Bohemian Rhapsody will say Malek got the spirit of Freddie to a tee.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Glenn Close – The Wife

How far back was Glenn Close’s first Oscar nomination? Back in 1982 for her performance in The World According To Garp. Her performance in The Wife is her seventh nomination. Many people will claim that she will win the Oscar on career culmination. I’m sure Lady Gaga fans will have their own trash-talk on social media for her when she wins (Monsters indeed!). However those who have seen The Wife will admire her acting for how her character hides her true intentions and true feelings and you can see it. As expected, Glenn delivers.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Ever since he stunned audience in Moonlight as the crack dealer with a soft spot for the young boy, Mahershala Ali has been on a roll. I still remember in his acceptance speech, he said the advise his teacher taught him: “It’s not about you. It’s about the character.” He delivers again as Don Shirley. Another winner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

This is a category with jam-packed with top contending performances. It’s tough to pick a favorite. However I have to go with Regina King for playing the mother in Beale Street who goes all out for her son-in-law’s innocence.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite

The originals have the edge over the adapted this year, but the results are all over the map. Green Book has the Golden Globe, First Reformed has the Critics Choice, The Favourite has the BAFTA, while the Writers Guild award went to Eighth Grade which was snubbed out. This must be the major category that’s hardest to predict. I was tempted to go with Roma, but I have to pick The Favourite.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk

Will Win: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

In all frankness, I think If Beale Street Could Talk was the best film by an African American director this year. James Baldwin would have been proud of Barry Jenkins’ adaptation. However I think the major buzz is for the four writers of BlacKkKlansman for creating a clever story that’s very thought-provoking.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

This year, animated movies continued to draw crowds and families. However it was once again another year that couldn’t compare to 2016. Near the end of the year, the two biggest movies were sequels: Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks The Internet. Just when it seemed lackluster, Spider-Verse came and was more entertaining than the others. Deserves to win here.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: RBG

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Hank Corwin – Vice

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Roma (Mexico)

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney – Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win and Will Win: ‘Shallow” from A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton – The Favourite

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: A Quiet Place

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Black Sheep

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the six upsets I feel are most likely to occur. In category order:

  • Roma wins Best Picture
  • Spike Lee wins Best Director for BlacKkKlansman.
  • Christian Bale wins Best Actor for Vice.
  • Amy Adams wins Best Supporting Actress for Vice.
  • Łukasz Żal wins Best Cinematography for Cold War.
  • Cold War wins Best Foreign-Language Film.

And there you have it. My predictions for the winners, and possible upsetters of the 91st Academy Awards. The end result of a hostless Oscars has yet to be seen, as well as the ratings results. But the winners have yet to be seen too, and that should be the most important thing. It will all be decided Sunday night.

My Predictions For The 2017 Oscars

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Chocolate Oscar

The Oscars will be awarded Sunday night. Jimmy Kimmel will be back. Last year’s ‘envelope guardians’ from PWC, Brian Cullinan and Martha Ruiz, won’t be for obvious reasons. I’ve seen enough movies and shorts to make up 90 of the nominations here. And to think just before Christmas, the only big-time contender I saw was Dunkirk. Whatever the situation, I succeeded again for the seventeenth year in a row in seeing all of the Best Picture nominees before Oscar night.

And now here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP:

Interesting how last year I did ‘summaries’ where I reviewed three in one blog. This time I had the energy to do one blog per film. So here’s my summary. All titles have links to my reviews:

-Call Me By Your Name– This is an excellent story about a love that’s meant to be, but is only temporary. It’s best quality is the story happening in a picturesque background. Excellent film, but I don’t think it has what it takes to win Best Picture.

-Darkest Hour– This is one film that was not considered a huge threat to the Best Picture race, but it did it. It has a lot to admire, especially Oldman’s acting. However I don’t think it has what it takes both as a picture and in terms of campaigning to win.

-Dunkirk– This is a film that first appears like it has Best Picture material. This makes for n excellent case, but the script is lacking and there’s no single acting performance that stands out for this year. Excellent film, nevertheless.

-Get Out– This is one of the Top 3 bets for Best Picture. It has a lot of what it takes to win, and especially since this is a come-from-nowhere story. However the Academy has never taken well to horror movies. I think this is the first ever to be nominated for Best Picture? I think the Academy will back off in favor of the ‘other two’ contenders.

-Lady Bird– This is a charmer of a film and one of the more significant films of the year. It’s a film written and directed by a woman and sends the message about how much of an impact women can have in film. Excellent work, but usually the Academy doesn’t normally reward movies where a teenager is the central character.

-Phantom Thread– This is a film that had the luck of a ‘late surge.’ The film was first seen having its best chances in nominations in Day-Lewis’ acting, Anderson’s writing and Bridges’ costuming. Instead it also acquired Best Picture and Best Director. Very good film, but lacks the muscle of some of the other contenders.

-The Post– This is another excellent Spielberg film. However it doesn’t compare to some of his more legendary works like Schindler’s List or Saving Private Ryan or even E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial. Not this time Steven.

-The Shape Of Water– This is the one film of the bunch that I can truly describe as ‘having it all.’ Top acting, top directing, top script, and even a lot of pluses along the way like top set design, excellent costuming, excellent make-up and excellent music. This is my pick for Should Win and Will Win.

-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri– This is a film packed with top acting and a top script. I liked it because of its unpredictability. I don’t think it will win Best Picture, but I think this is the film that has the best chances of upsetting The Shape Of Water.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should Win & Will Win – Guillermo del Toro, The Shape Of Water

How many of you have seen Pan’s Labyrinth? How many of you fell in love with that film? I’m one that has. I’ve been waiting for the longest time for Del Toro to get his acclaim as a director. Finally he gets his chance with The Shape Of Water.

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Many people have felt that Gary Oldman is one of the most underrated actors around. He’s given us a lot to appreciate ever since he burst onto the scene with Sid And Nancy. After so long, he finally gets his long overdue respect. And if you saw Darkest Hour, you’d know it’s for all the right reasons.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win and Will Win – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Frances knows how to mix the comedic with the dramatic. Those who saw Fargo ought to know. That’s where she won her first Best Actress Oscar. I read that Frances tried to adopt John Wayne as an influence for Mildred Hayes. In retrospect, I think she was dead on! It’s no wonder she’s favored to win her second Oscar here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This year’s favorites for the acting categories are rather predictable. All of them have won the Golden Globe, The SAG and the BAFTA awards. The Oscar is a forgone conclusion. Same here for Sam Rockwell. Nevertheless he is deserving of it as he does some excellent character acting that makes him unrecognizable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win and Will Win – Allison Janney, I, Tonya

I’m sure all of you can name at least one movie where you saw Allison Janney catch your eye in a supporting role. Primary Colors, American Beauty, Nurse Betty, The Hours, Hairspray, Juno, The Help, The Way Way Back, the list goes on. Even if the role is small, she helps make the movie. Now it’s her turn for Oscar glory, and rightly so. She’ll leave you wondering if the movie’s about Tonya or LaVona.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win – Jordan Peele, Get Out

Will Win – Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It’s a tough call between the two scripts. I’d like to see Get Out because everybody loves a come-from-nowhere story. I think it will go to Three Billboards on the strength of it Best Picture buzz.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win and Will Win – James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name

I can see why it’s so highly acclaimed. It plays out like a lot of European films, even though it’s actually a love story about two Americans in Europe. Nevertheless the best choice in this category.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win and Will Win: CoCo

2017’s line-up of animated movies really couldn’t compare to that of 2016. We’re talking a year where The Boss Baby was nominated and there was even the mere release of The Emoji Movie! However it’s like they saved the best for the end of the year with Ferdinand, CoCo and Loving Vincent. A lot of people loved the humor of Ferdinand, but I went with CoCo. I always love it when an animated movie takes you to another world, and CoCo is the movie that did it this year.

BEST ART DIRECTION:

Will Win: Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin, The Shape Of Water

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will Win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: Faces Places

BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Lee Smith, Dunkirk

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Will Win: The Square (Sweden)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Will Win: Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: Alexeandre Desplat, The Shape Of Water

It seems like every time John Williams creates a film score, it gets nominated. Actually his score for The Post–which had bigger nomination expectations than his score for The Last Jedi— didn’t get nominated! That’s odd. I always considered a nomination for John Williams a default. Whatever the situation, Alexandre Desplat looks to be the film composer most poised to be the next great one. He won for The Grand Budapest Hotel and he’s highly likely to do it again.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Should Win & Will Win: ‘Remember Me’ from CoCo

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Will Win: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Will Win: Dunkirk

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Will Win: Edith+Eddie

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the five upsets I feel are most likely to occur:

  • Three Billboards wins Best Picture
  • Willem Dafoe wins Best Supporting Actor for The Florida Project
  • Jordan Peele wins Best Original Screenplay for Get Out
  • ‘This Is Me’ from The Greatest Showman wins Best Original Song
  • A Fantastic Woman from Chile wins Best Foreign Language Film

And there you have it. My predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. The 90th edition. I’m expecting them to show a lot of memories of the past. One thing I hope for this year is that they have all their envelopes right. Whatever the situation, it looks to be one entertaining night.

My Predictions For The 2016 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

DISCLAIMER: There was an incomplete post like this yesterday. The reason was I was editing from my smartphone and intended to update the draft, not publish the blog. It published anyways. This blog here is my complete blog for Oscar predictions.

Chocolate Oscar

The Academy Awards are here. I’ve seen enough movies to make up 82 of the nominations this year. It was quite the year with lots to offer and a lot of things that appeared guaranteed weren’t. So without further ado, let’s get on with the predictions:

BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP

You all saw my three summaries of all nine nominees. Doing shorter summaries were better for me this year. Maybe next year I won’t be so busy or have as many ailments. So here goes for predicting the winner:

-Arrival-  This is the first movie about aliens to be nominated for an Oscar. A very smart film that was loaded with buzz when it first came out. However its awards excitement faded over time as did its Best Picture chances.

-Fences- I like it when I see a celebrated play brought to the big screen. Especially around Oscar time. I felt it was done excellently. However it is up in this category against meatier competition. This is one category I think Fences won’t win.

-Hacksaw Ridge- Very rarely does a pro-religion movie have a chance for Best Picture. Hacksaw Ridge is the pro-religion film in the past 15 years most deserving of a nomination. However it does have some formulaic elements that come up every now and then and it has better chances in the technical categories instead of Best Picture.

-Hell Or High Water-  This year’s ‘summer survivor.’ Those like me who missed out on it during the summer missed out on a gem. A crime story that’s funny and entertaining, but smart too. However I’m not too optimistic in its Oscar chances here.

-Hidden Figures- This movie started with very little Oscar buzz at first but it increased as rapport from the film–from both critics and audience alike– grew. It seems like it doesn’t have good chances to win Best Picture but it could pull a surprise. A very slim chance of that but it is likely.

-La La Land- What can I say? People have been embracing it in droves. Why? Because people just really like a good musical? Because of its feel? Because it reminds one of the charm of old Hollywood? Whatever it is, it’s made it the frontrunner that looks hard to beat. That’s why it’s my Will Win pick. the biggest reason why I hope it win is because last year I said: “One more Best Picture winner that fails to gross $100 million and I’m done Oscarwatching.” I don’t know what made me carry on even after Spotlight won– and it didn’t even make $50 million— but La La Land makes me glad I did.

-Lion- I’m no expert in Oscar trivia but I think this is the first Australian film to be nominated for Best Picture, and a deserving nominee. It’s won over everyone I know who has seen it. It may have had better Best Picture chances in another year.

-Manchester By The Sea- This is a film that was loaded with buzz at the beginning of the Oscar race and looked to be the one film that could beat out La La Land. The buzz faded over time, despite how great the film was. May have an outside chance but not too likely.

-Moonlight- This is one film that proves that less is more. Less dialogue, more of a feel of what’s happening. Less showy characters, more knowing who the characters are. Less singing and dancing, more feel for the music in the film. This is the surprise of the Oscar race that was able to let it speak for itself. I know it faces a hell of a fight against La La Land to win Best Picture but I give this my Should Win pick.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should Win – Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Will Win – Damien Chazelle, La La Land

I felt that Moonlight is the better picture and Jenkins did an excellent job of directing but I know this is the year of La La Land and it’s Damien Chazelle’s to take.

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Denzel Washington, Fences

These past two years saw the rise of the #OscarsSoWhite outcry. This year there are seven non-white acting nominees. Denzel may have won twice before but his performance as Troy Maxson has been getting loads of buzz and even surprised favorite Casey Affleck at the SAG Awards. The only way I can see Casey winning instead of Denzel is if the Academy doesn’t want to make this his third Oscar, and it is a possibility.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win – Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Will Win – Emma Stone, La La Land

Some are saying that Isabelle Huppert looks to be the biggest threat to Emma Stone’s win. It is a possibility but I think Casey Affleck beating out Denzel appears more likely. It’s Emma’s to lose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Mahershala Ali may have only been seen in the first part of Moonlight but there was something about his performance of Juan that stood out like no other supporting performance this year. Was it Juan’s charisma? Was it his silent coolness? Whatever it is, it’s what made Mahershala stand out this year among all the supporting actor performances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win and Will Win – Viola Davis, Fences

What can I say? If there’s anyone who can steal the show from Denzel, it’s Viola Davis. She reminded us very well that Fences wasn’t just about Troy Maxson. It was about Rose too.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win – Taylor Sheridan, Hell Or High Water

Will Win – Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea

A lot of people are expecting Damien Chazelle to do it again here but I feel that Kenneth Lonergan will take it for one of the best scripts of the year. It was a film that cuts deep and doesn’t water down.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win and Will Win – Barry Jenkins and Terell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight

It all started with a short story by McCraney, then Jenkins developed a screenplay, and now it’s one of the best of the year. No stopping it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: Kubo And The Two Strings

Will Win: Zootopia

Kubo was the best at taking your imagination away this year. However in comparison to frontrunner Zootopia, it isn’t really all that family friendly and that I believe is where it will hurt it. Zootopia was without a doubt this year’s crowd charmer. Besides this is the one category Disney wants to take year after year.

BEST ART DIRECTION:

Will Win: La La Land

Let’s face it. Any movie that shows off the classic areas in Los Angeles and even meshes it into the present will win this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: O. J. Simpson: Made In America

BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Tom Cross, La La Land

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)

Salesman director Asghar Farhadi has been the subject of news as it was believed Donald Trump’s travel ban could prevent him from attending the Oscars. Whatever the situation, he boycotted the Oscars in protest of Trump’s policies.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Will Win: A Man Called Ove

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land

I’m sure we’ve all been waiting for the longest time for a musical of original composition. Especially the Academy.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Should Win: ‘Audition (The Fools Who Dream)’, La La Land

Will Win: ‘City Of Stars’, La La Land

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Will Win: La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: The Jungle Book

I think the reason why Star Wars lost this category last year is because having the best digital effects of the year is expected for a Star Wars movie. That’s where The Jungle Book has the edge for this year.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Will Win: Joe’s Helmet

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

I did this for the first time last year. I want to do it again this year.:

  • Moonlight wins Best Picture
  • Casey Affleck wins Best Actor for Manchester By The Sea
  • Kubo And The Two Strings wins Best Animated Feature
  • Arrival wins Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Greig Fraser wins Best Cinematography for Lion.

And there you have it. My predictions for Hollywood’s night of nights. Let’s see how Jimmy Kimmel does as host this time.