My Predictions For The 2018 Academy Awards
The surprises weren’t just about the ceremony itself. The surprises were in the awards race too. One big shocker was a NetFlix film being a heavy favorite. Another was most of the Best Picture nominees snubbed in at least one category that effects their Best Picture standing: like in acting, directing, writing or film editing. Only BlacKkKlansman had nominations in all. Another was the double-snub of Emily Blunt in both acting categories to actresses of Roma that didn’t have as big of awards clout. Another was films with outside chances like Cold War and The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs garnering nominations. Guild awards provided other lopsided results too like SAGs giving snubbed-out Emily Blunt the Best Supporting Actress award, and the Writers Guild of America giving Bo Burnham the Best Original Screenplay award. With only days to go there’s still no clear favorite for Best Picture. Not even The Favourite!
However the awards results and the pictures themselves do give a good sense on who just could win. So without further ado, here are my predictions for who Will Win the Oscars as well as a Should-Win pick where I feel necessary. Also hyperlinks to my reviews are included.
BEST PICTURE
This year’s eight-pack of Best Picture nominees are quite unique and exhibit a lot in diversity. One is a film predominantly in Spanish. One is a superhero movie. Two are music-based. Three begin with the letter B. Three have African-Americans as their dominant or central characters. Five have some reference to LGBT people. All have a lot of awards clout and have paved their way successfully to their nominations. So here is my rundown of the Best Picture nominees:
Black Panther – The 21st Century is best remembered so far as the heyday of the superhero movie. For so long, people have waited for a superhero movie to get nominated for Best Picture. In fact the number of Best Picture entries was expanded past its traditional five when The Dark Knight didn’t get nominated. Finally a superhero movie is nominated. I can’t think of a better choice than Black Panther. It has all the qualities of a Best Picture contender — acting, directing, writing, and a lot more — but its buzz fell fast when its only other nominations were technical ones. I don’t think it will win.
BlacKkKlansman – Isn’t it something how Spike Lee went from boycotting the Oscars three years ago to becoming a nominee this year. Spike Lee has had a career with a lot of ups and downs. Ever since Do The Right Thing, he has struggled to get his greatness back. His success however has paved the way for other African American directors. BlacKkKlansman brought him back into major action. I consider this a top contender for the Best Picture award, but not necessarily the winner.
Bohemian Rhapsody – This film has all the ingredients of a Best Picture contender, especially a performance by the lead that will blow you away. The film also has a very critical weakness. That being the original director is an alleged sex offender. That may not hurt Rami’s chances for Best Actor, but it robs any and all chances of a Best Picture win for this film.
The Favourite – What’s the Oscar race without a timepiece set way back being a top contender for the Best Picture award? The Favourite is just that movie, and one of only two movies with ten nominations. The film has the ingredients to win Best Picture. However some may find the story too tempestuous and the film too eccentric to win the biggest award of the night.
Green Book – Overcoming racism has been a central theme in many a film in this year’s Oscar race. This is a film that may not be historically accurate, but it does make for a good film from start-to-finish with a good message. Much of it is true as Tony Lip’s son was the scriptwriter. It’s tight but I give this my Will Win pick.
Roma – This film is a thing of beauty. I can sum it up like that. For the record, no film predominantly in a foreign-language has ever won the Best Picture Oscar. I have a feeling that could rob Roma of the biggest award that night. However this is a close race and anything can happen. That’s why I give it my Should Win pick.
A Star Is Born – When the Oscar season began, this film had the biggest buzz. Especially with it being Lady Gaga’s big screen breakthrough. The film has all the ingredient for a Best Picture winner. However, this is a film that’s been done three times before. I don’t think the Academy is willing to give the Best Picture Oscar to a reboot.
Vice – If you remember The Big Short, you’ll see how Adam McKay lampooned the banking system and the games they were playing just as they were about to lead the US to its biggest recession since the Great Depression. Here McKay lampoons the American political system and how Dick Cheney played a major role in the political climate we have today both as Vice President and while holding other office. It’s as entertaining as The Big Short, but not as good. That’s where I feel Vice falls short in the Best Picture race.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
If you see Roma, you will see it’s more than just two women transformed in a changing time in Mexico. You will notice it’s a piece of Alfonso Cuaron’s childhood. He creates a masterpiece so beautiful and intimate, not even the images of the dog droppings can ruin its beauty. It’s a masterpiece of a film and I feel Cuaron deserves to win again.
BEST ACTOR
Should Win and Will Win: Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Thirteen of this year’s twenty acting nominations are for performances of people that exist or have existed. In no other category is that best represented than in the Best Actor category. Bradley Cooper’s is the only nomination of a fictional person here. It’s a tough call between Christian Bale as Dick Cheney or Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury. I have to go with Malek because his performance was more dead-on while Bale’s was intended to be cartoonish in the way Adam McKay wanted it. Besides those that saw Bohemian Rhapsody will say Malek got the spirit of Freddie to a tee.
BEST ACTRESS
Should Win and Will Win: Glenn Close – The Wife
How far back was Glenn Close’s first Oscar nomination? Back in 1982 for her performance in The World According To Garp. Her performance in The Wife is her seventh nomination. Many people will claim that she will win the Oscar on career culmination. I’m sure Lady Gaga fans will have their own trash-talk on social media for her when she wins (Monsters indeed!). However those who have seen The Wife will admire her acting for how her character hides her true intentions and true feelings and you can see it. As expected, Glenn delivers.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win and Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Ever since he stunned audience in Moonlight as the crack dealer with a soft spot for the young boy, Mahershala Ali has been on a roll. I still remember in his acceptance speech, he said the advise his teacher taught him: “It’s not about you. It’s about the character.” He delivers again as Don Shirley. Another winner.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win and Will Win: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
This is a category with jam-packed with top contending performances. It’s tough to pick a favorite. However I have to go with Regina King for playing the mother in Beale Street who goes all out for her son-in-law’s innocence.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite
The originals have the edge over the adapted this year, but the results are all over the map. Green Book has the Golden Globe, First Reformed has the Critics Choice, The Favourite has the BAFTA, while the Writers Guild award went to Eighth Grade which was snubbed out. This must be the major category that’s hardest to predict. I was tempted to go with Roma, but I have to pick The Favourite.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
Will Win: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
In all frankness, I think If Beale Street Could Talk was the best film by an African American director this year. James Baldwin would have been proud of Barry Jenkins’ adaptation. However I think the major buzz is for the four writers of BlacKkKlansman for creating a clever story that’s very thought-provoking.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win and Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
This year, animated movies continued to draw crowds and families. However it was once again another year that couldn’t compare to 2016. Near the end of the year, the two biggest movies were sequels: Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks The Internet. Just when it seemed lackluster, Spider-Verse came and was more entertaining than the others. Deserves to win here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: RBG
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Hank Corwin – Vice
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Roma (Mexico)
BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP
Will Win: Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney – Vice
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should Win and Will Win: ‘Shallow” from A Star Is Born
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton – The Favourite
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: A Quiet Place
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Click here for reviews and predictions.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Click here for reviews and predictions.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Black Sheep
JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS
Here are the six upsets I feel are most likely to occur. In category order:
- Roma wins Best Picture
- Spike Lee wins Best Director for BlacKkKlansman.
- Christian Bale wins Best Actor for Vice.
- Amy Adams wins Best Supporting Actress for Vice.
- Łukasz Żal wins Best Cinematography for Cold War.
- Cold War wins Best Foreign-Language Film.
And there you have it. My predictions for the winners, and possible upsetters of the 91st Academy Awards. The end result of a hostless Oscars has yet to be seen, as well as the ratings results. But the winners have yet to be seen too, and that should be the most important thing. It will all be decided Sunday night.
Oscars 2018 Shorts Review: Animation and Live-Action
I’m good at keeping count of all the years I’m able to see all the Best Picture nominees, but I don’t know how many consecutive years I’ve seen the shorts. However I did it again this year. I lucked out and saw all the shorts for this year’s Best Live-Action Short Film and Best Animated Short Film categories. There were a lot of differences of the films, but a lot of similarities too. Here’s my review of the films:
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILMS:
The col thing about this year is that two films — Fauve and Marguerite — come from Canada. More specifically, Quebec. The five films nominated are very different in genre and story, but all are deserving of their nominations:
Detainment: dir. Vincent Lambe – This is the most controversial of the five films. February 12, 1993 started off as a day in which two 10 year-old boys named Jon Venables and Robert Thompson simply played truant from school and stole items from nearby stores. That all changed when they saw 2 year-old James Bulger standing outside the butcher shop unattended. The film focuses intensely on the police interrogations. Both Thompson and Venables are interrogated separately. Both boys’ parents are in the room listening in, and in complete paralyzing shock.
The film is based off of some of the recorded interrogations of the two boys. The film appears to be a character study of the two individual boys. Thompson appears defiant and remorseless while Venables is constantly lying and frequently cries, even hysterically. The film also relives the moments such as when adults butt in and how they walked Bulger the long distance to the track where he died. It becomes gripping without getting too disturbing.
NOTE: The film has attracted a lot of controversy because of its subject matter. The James Bulger murder is a murder that still upsets the UK, especially Liverpool, to this day. The mother has gone on BBC speaking her anger and demanded the film be removed from the list of nominees. That’s why even though I think it’s the best film of all five, I feel it should not win the Oscar. I don’t see it trying to bring any sympathy to the two boys, but it still upsets many from the UK to this day.
Fauve: dir. Jeremy Comte – Two boys, Tyler and Benjamin, are playing an innocent power game. They first do it around an abandoned train. However they decide to take their game to a surface mine for a concrete factory. Then the game becomes deadly as Benjamin finds himself sinking in the wet cement. Tyler tries to help, but to no avail as it stops him too. Any help from Tyler helps to no avail. Then the aftermath as a woman offers a ride home tells a lot.
The film is a good short story. The story starts off as simple fun and games, but then turns to a dark tragic drama when you least expect it. Even the ending leaves you asking questions at the end. Very good short.
Marguerite: dir. Marianne Farley – Marguerite is an elderly lady nearing the last years of her life at home. She is nursed on a daily basis by a young nurse named Rachel. One day, she overhears a phone conversation between Rachel and another woman. It sounds romantic. Later, Marguerite notices Rachel’s phone in the bathroom and sees romantic photos of Rachel and the other woman. One day, Marguerite unearths a photo album. The photos are back in the 1960’s and are of her and another woman named Cecile. It brings back memories of the two. Cecile would later marry a man. After being put to bed early because of a fall, Marguerite confesses in her bed to Rachel of Cecile and why she never ‘loved’ her.
This is a story that is slow, but it tells a lot. It’s about two women, both lesbians, who are a product of their times. One couldn’t love a woman because it was considered a ‘mortal sin’ and was criminalized. The other is free to love another woman without guilt. It’s there where they share their special bond at the end. That’s why I declare this my Should Win pick.
Mother: dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen – Marta is relaxing at her place with her mother around. Her son Ivan is on the coast of the French Riviera with his father on vacation. Soon Marta receives a phone call from Ivan. Ivan is alone on a remote area of the coast. The father abandoned him. Nobody except a strange man is around. The battery in Ivan’s phone is dying. Soon Marta calls the police, but the police have no way to locate Ivan as Ivan doesn’t know where he is. Then a second phone call from Ivan happens. That leaves Marta even more frightened and causes Marta to rush out.
The film’s best attribute is that it captures the moment. It’s between cellphones and Marta’s domain. The qualities are what we know and what we don’t know and it builds on the suspense. The weakness is that it appears to be part of a film rather than a full film. It feels like it has a beginning and a middle, but no end. I’m sure the purpose of the director was to give us a film that leaves us in suspense, but it leaves you wondering what was the point of this partial-film? Social message? Suspense story? What?
Skin: dir. Guy Nattiv – Troy is a ten year-old boy growing up in a remote area of the southern USA. The father, Johnny Aldd, is bringing him up to be rough and tough. The father even teaches Troy how to shoot a real gun with the help of his neo-Nazi friends. One day at a supermarket, Troy smiles at an African American man just simply buying groceries. Johnny gets angry and shouts racist slurs, but the black man walks off calm, collect, but angry and lets him know it. Johnny response by getting his friends to rush over and beat the black man up near his van while his family watches in horror, and Troy watches on.
Days later, Troy and Johnny go out somewhere, but the father is captured by a van of African American men. They put a sleeping injection in Johnny and a tattoo artist goes over his racist tattoos, leaving you wondering what will come. After eleven days, Johnny is dropped back at his home. The tattoo artist completely covered him in black, to Johnny’s horror. As Johnny tries to come home, his wife and son react in fear. It ends with a surprise ending.
No question the main theme of the film is about racism. However the film is also about cliques and breeding fear into people. The film can say that the culture of fear can also be why the United States has a gun problem. Seeing how neo-Naziism exposed its face in the Unite-The-Right rally in August 2017, this is a film very relevant to our times. Even with its bizarre story and surprise ending. That’s why I pick it at my Will Win pick.
ANIMATED SHORTS:
This makes for a very eclectic five films chosen for this year. One of the films is from a Canadian animation company. However there are two American films that hint they may have some Canadian ingredients:
Animal Behaviour: dirs. Alison Snowden and David Fine – Various animals walk into a psychology group meeting with a dog doctor leading the meeting. All have a problem to confess. However problems arrive when a gigantic ape with an anger problem comes in. He doesn’t want to be helped. The pig, the leech and the moth are all cooperative, but the ape is disruptive. Then the ape confesses his problem, but also throws a fit in the process and all havoc is wreaked. Right at the end, and with all the damage done, the ape appears helped and will be back next week.
This is some clever 2D animation that may appear simple and crude by most, but fits the story well. Also the whole story of all the animals involved and their problems makes for funny hilarity.
Bao: dirs. Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb – A Chinese-Canadian woman makes dumplings for her busy husband, but one comes alive. She raises it to be like her own baby. She mothers it with her caring nature, but the son grows up out to be rebellious and even leaves to marry a white woman he loves. She can’t handle it and eats him. Heartbroken after ‘eating’ him, she wakes up to find out it’s just a dream. She’s a mother going through empty-nest syndrome and the child dumpling in her dream was mirroring her own son’s life. It ends on a happy note.
This is the short shown before Incredibles 2. Once again, Pixar adds another excellent writer to its dream team. Director Domee Shi started as a storyboard artist for The Good Dinosaur and Inside Out. Here she has a chance to let her creativity flow with a charming story which transcends race and delights people of all ages and backgrounds.
Late Afternoon: dirs. Louise Bagnall and Nuria Gonzales Blanco – Emily is an elderly woman who is constantly tended to by Kate. Frequently Emily’s memory goes back to her past from moments in her childhood and her carefree nature and then to moments in her young adulthood. Her memory keeps going in and out. Then at the end, she’s reminded Kate is her daughter.
This does seem like a heavy short as the story appears to be either about Dementia or Alzheimers. The use of animation helps with the drifting of Emily’s mind from the present to the past back to the present again. A very good short, but it may be too deep for some.
One Small Step: dirs. Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas – Luna is a Chinese-American girl with dreams of becoming an astronaut. She lives with her father, a shoe cobbler. He has always let Luna know how much he loves her with the shoes he crafts for her and with his business. He uses his money to promote Luna’s dream. As a young child, Luna cherishes every minute of her father. As she grows up, she becomes more distant from her father and even too busy with her college work. Things take a turn for the worse as she starts failing courses and is denied acceptance into astronaut training. Then one day she comes home and learns that her father has passed. Heartbroken, she then turns her life around and starts a new ambition. This leads to the happy ending we all want.
The story is a very good story as it deals with a common theme of father-daughter relationships. The story may appear heartbreaking, but ends with the positive energy it began with. The animation was excellent and the story, with no dialogue at all, told us a lot. I call this my Should Win and Will Win pick.
Weekends: dir. Trevor Jimenez – A young boy living in downtown Toronto in the mid-1980’s is divided between the time between the homes of his father and his mother. The father is more playful with an imagination into samurai swords. The mother is more serious while she’s dating a man who doesn’t take well to the boy. As the stories shift between the two world, they become intertwined with the boy’s dreams and the dreams tell a lot about the realities of the home lives he’s going through.
Trevor Jimenez has been a storyboard artist for Pixar films and has his chance at doing his own short film. It’s all hand-drawn which adds to the effect of the story. The point of this story was to mix the eerie dreams with the boy’s unfriendly reality. It does a great job in creating the right environment for the film and the drama.
And that’s my look at this year’s Oscar nominated short films. Last year I was better at predicting the shorts winners, but this year looks to be very open. There are some that look like clear winners, but anything can happen in these categories. It will all be decided on Sunday the 24th.
My Predictions For The 2018 Academy Award Nominees
This has been an interesting year for the Academy. Last year’s Oscars suffered their lowest ratings ever and they were in a frustration. Hey, when they keep on giving Best Picture to movies with low grosses, they’ve got it coming. However nothing lasts forever.
This year looks like movies with good grosses have good chances. Yes, we do have the arthouse films and film fest films dominating, but this year looks good for popular fare too. So here are my predictions for the nominations of the 2018 Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
- Black Panther
- BlacKkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- A Quiet Place
- A Star Is Born
- Roma
- Vice
BEST DIRECTOR
- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
- Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
- Peter Farrelly – Green Book
- Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay – Vice
BEST ACTOR
- Christian Bale – Vice
- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortenson – Green Book
- John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman
BEST ACTRESS
- Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
- Glenn Close – The Wife
- Olivia Colman – The Favourite
- Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Mahershala Ali – Green Book
- Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
- Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell – Vice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Amy Adams – Vice
- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Margot Robbie – Mary, Queen Of Scots
- Emma Stone – The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Deborah Davis & Tony MacNamara – The Favourite
- Paul Schrader – First Reformed
- Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly & Nick Vallelonga – Green Book
- Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
- Adam McKay – Vice
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Ryan Coogler & John Robert Cole – Black Planther
- Charlie Wachtel. David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
- Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Bill Fetters – A Star Is Born
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- The Incredibles 2
- Isle Of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks The Internet
- SpiderMan: Into The Spider-Verse
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Rachel Morrison – Black Panther
- Robbie Ryan – The Favourite
- Linus Sandgren – First Man
- Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
- Matthew Libatique – A Star Is Born
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Alexandra Byrne – Mary Queen Of Scots
- Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther
- Julian Day – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Sandy Powell – The Favourite
- Sandy Powell – Mary Poppins Returns
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- Free Solo
- Hale County This Morning, This Evening
- RBG
- Three Identical Strangers
- Won’t You Be My Neighbor
BEST FILM EDITING
- Alfonso Cuaron & Adam Gough – Roma
- Tom Cross – First Man
- Jay Cassidy – A Star Is Born
- Hank Corwin – Vice
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis – The Favourite
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- Burning – South Korea
- Capernaum – Lebanon
- Cold War – Poland
- Roma – Mexico
- Shoplifters – Japan
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
- Black Panther
- Mary Queen Of Scots
- Vice
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Nicholas Brittell – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Alexandre Desplat – Isle Of Dogs
- Ludwig Goranson – Black Panther
- Justin Hurwitz – First Man
- Marc Shaiman – Mary Poppins Returns
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “All The Stars” – Black Panther
- “Girl In The Movies” – Dumplin’
- “I’ll Fight” – RBG
- “Revelation” – Boy Erased
- “Shallow” – A Star Is Born
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Hannah Beachler – Black Panther
- Nelson Coates – Crazy Rich Asians
- Fiona Crowley – The Favourite
- Nathan Crowley – First Man
- John Myhre – Mary Poppins Returns
BEST SOUND MIXING
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- A Star Is Born
- A Quiet Place
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Black Panther
- Ready Player One
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
Those are my predictions for nominations. I also include predictions for possible upsetters for my main predictions. Not every category will include my picks for upsetters. Just for those in the case I feel they could get nominated instead of the favorites. Without further ado, here is my list for the most likely upsetters:
BEST PICTURE
- Crazy Rich Asians
- Mary Poppins Returns
BEST DIRECTOR
- Yiorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
- Damien Chazelle – First Man
BEST ACTOR
- Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
- Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
BEST ACTRESS
- Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
- Regina Hall – Support The Girls
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
- Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
- Claire Foy – First Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade
- Bryan Woods, Scott Beck & John Krasinski – A Quiet Place
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Josh Singer – First Man
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
- Ruben Brandt, Collector
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Lukasz Zal – Cold War
- James Laxton – If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Erin Benach – A Star Is Born
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- Minding The Gap
BEST FILM EDITING
- Barry Alexander Brown – BlacKkKlansman
- John Ottman – Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- The Guilty – Denmark
- Never Look Away – Germany
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
- The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Marco Beltrami – A Quiet Place
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns
- “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” – Mary Poppins Returns
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Eugenio Caballero – Roma
- Stuart Craig – Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindenwald
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Christopher Robin
- First Man
And those are my predictions for the nominations of this year’s Academy Awards. The actual nominees will be revealed bright and early Tuesday morning. It’s the only reason to wake up that early on a Tuesday!
Golden Globes 2018: My Predictions
This year’s Golden Globes will be hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh. I’ll admit it’s awfully late for me to post my Golden Globe predictions, but I have been lacking the drive this holiday season. A late-minute alerting made me get myself into action. To start things off, here are my predictions for both the winners and their respective most likely upsetters in the film categories:
FILM:
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: BlacKkKlansman
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: The Favourite
Most Likely Upsetter: Green Book
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Christian Bale, Vice
Most Likely Upsetter: Viggo Mortenson, Green Book
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: Glenn Close, The Wife
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Most Likely Upsetter: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Most Likely Upsetter: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Amy Adams, Vice
Most Likely Upsetter: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Director
Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Most Likely Upsetter: Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Most Likely Upsetter: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly & Vanessa Taylor, Green Book
Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: Roma (Mexico)
Most Likely Upsetter: Shoplifters (Japan)
Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: SpiderMan: Into The Spiderverse
Most Likely Upsetter: The Incredibles 2
Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Shallow”, A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: “All The Stars”, Black Panther
Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Most Likely Upsetter: Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. Especially since this year’s crop of nominees come mostly from new shows for this season. So my predictions for the winners:
TELEVISION:
Best TV Movie or Miniseries: American Crime Story: The Assassination Of Versace
Best TV Series, Drama: The Americans
Best TV Series, Comedy: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Bill Hader, Barry
Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Darren Criss, American Crime Story: The Assassination Of Versace
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Regina King, Seven Seconds
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Henry Winkler, Barry
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Thandie Newton, Westworld
And there you go. Those are my predictions for tonight’s Golden Globe awards. Winners to be revealed starting 8pm EST. That’s less than an hour!
My Predictions For The 2017 Oscars
The Oscars will be awarded Sunday night. Jimmy Kimmel will be back. Last year’s ‘envelope guardians’ from PWC, Brian Cullinan and Martha Ruiz, won’t be for obvious reasons. I’ve seen enough movies and shorts to make up 90 of the nominations here. And to think just before Christmas, the only big-time contender I saw was Dunkirk. Whatever the situation, I succeeded again for the seventeenth year in a row in seeing all of the Best Picture nominees before Oscar night.
And now here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP:
Interesting how last year I did ‘summaries’ where I reviewed three in one blog. This time I had the energy to do one blog per film. So here’s my summary. All titles have links to my reviews:
-Call Me By Your Name– This is an excellent story about a love that’s meant to be, but is only temporary. It’s best quality is the story happening in a picturesque background. Excellent film, but I don’t think it has what it takes to win Best Picture.
-Darkest Hour– This is one film that was not considered a huge threat to the Best Picture race, but it did it. It has a lot to admire, especially Oldman’s acting. However I don’t think it has what it takes both as a picture and in terms of campaigning to win.
-Dunkirk– This is a film that first appears like it has Best Picture material. This makes for n excellent case, but the script is lacking and there’s no single acting performance that stands out for this year. Excellent film, nevertheless.
-Get Out– This is one of the Top 3 bets for Best Picture. It has a lot of what it takes to win, and especially since this is a come-from-nowhere story. However the Academy has never taken well to horror movies. I think this is the first ever to be nominated for Best Picture? I think the Academy will back off in favor of the ‘other two’ contenders.
-Lady Bird– This is a charmer of a film and one of the more significant films of the year. It’s a film written and directed by a woman and sends the message about how much of an impact women can have in film. Excellent work, but usually the Academy doesn’t normally reward movies where a teenager is the central character.
-Phantom Thread– This is a film that had the luck of a ‘late surge.’ The film was first seen having its best chances in nominations in Day-Lewis’ acting, Anderson’s writing and Bridges’ costuming. Instead it also acquired Best Picture and Best Director. Very good film, but lacks the muscle of some of the other contenders.
-The Post– This is another excellent Spielberg film. However it doesn’t compare to some of his more legendary works like Schindler’s List or Saving Private Ryan or even E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial. Not this time Steven.
-The Shape Of Water– This is the one film of the bunch that I can truly describe as ‘having it all.’ Top acting, top directing, top script, and even a lot of pluses along the way like top set design, excellent costuming, excellent make-up and excellent music. This is my pick for Should Win and Will Win.
-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri– This is a film packed with top acting and a top script. I liked it because of its unpredictability. I don’t think it will win Best Picture, but I think this is the film that has the best chances of upsetting The Shape Of Water.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should Win & Will Win – Guillermo del Toro, The Shape Of Water
How many of you have seen Pan’s Labyrinth? How many of you fell in love with that film? I’m one that has. I’ve been waiting for the longest time for Del Toro to get his acclaim as a director. Finally he gets his chance with The Shape Of Water.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win and Will Win – Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Many people have felt that Gary Oldman is one of the most underrated actors around. He’s given us a lot to appreciate ever since he burst onto the scene with Sid And Nancy. After so long, he finally gets his long overdue respect. And if you saw Darkest Hour, you’d know it’s for all the right reasons.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win and Will Win – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Frances knows how to mix the comedic with the dramatic. Those who saw Fargo ought to know. That’s where she won her first Best Actress Oscar. I read that Frances tried to adopt John Wayne as an influence for Mildred Hayes. In retrospect, I think she was dead on! It’s no wonder she’s favored to win her second Oscar here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win and Will Win – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This year’s favorites for the acting categories are rather predictable. All of them have won the Golden Globe, The SAG and the BAFTA awards. The Oscar is a forgone conclusion. Same here for Sam Rockwell. Nevertheless he is deserving of it as he does some excellent character acting that makes him unrecognizable.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win and Will Win – Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’m sure all of you can name at least one movie where you saw Allison Janney catch your eye in a supporting role. Primary Colors, American Beauty, Nurse Betty, The Hours, Hairspray, Juno, The Help, The Way Way Back, the list goes on. Even if the role is small, she helps make the movie. Now it’s her turn for Oscar glory, and rightly so. She’ll leave you wondering if the movie’s about Tonya or LaVona.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win – Jordan Peele, Get Out
Will Win – Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s a tough call between the two scripts. I’d like to see Get Out because everybody loves a come-from-nowhere story. I think it will go to Three Billboards on the strength of it Best Picture buzz.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win and Will Win – James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
I can see why it’s so highly acclaimed. It plays out like a lot of European films, even though it’s actually a love story about two Americans in Europe. Nevertheless the best choice in this category.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should Win and Will Win: CoCo
2017’s line-up of animated movies really couldn’t compare to that of 2016. We’re talking a year where The Boss Baby was nominated and there was even the mere release of The Emoji Movie! However it’s like they saved the best for the end of the year with Ferdinand, CoCo and Loving Vincent. A lot of people loved the humor of Ferdinand, but I went with CoCo. I always love it when an animated movie takes you to another world, and CoCo is the movie that did it this year.
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Will Win: Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin, The Shape Of Water
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: Faces Places
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Lee Smith, Dunkirk
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Will Win: The Square (Sweden)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: Darkest Hour
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Alexeandre Desplat, The Shape Of Water
It seems like every time John Williams creates a film score, it gets nominated. Actually his score for The Post–which had bigger nomination expectations than his score for The Last Jedi— didn’t get nominated! That’s odd. I always considered a nomination for John Williams a default. Whatever the situation, Alexandre Desplat looks to be the film composer most poised to be the next great one. He won for The Grand Budapest Hotel and he’s highly likely to do it again.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Should Win & Will Win: ‘Remember Me’ from CoCo
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:
Click here for reviews and predictions.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Click here for reviews and predictions.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
Will Win: Edith+Eddie
JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS
Here are the five upsets I feel are most likely to occur:
- Three Billboards wins Best Picture
- Willem Dafoe wins Best Supporting Actor for The Florida Project
- Jordan Peele wins Best Original Screenplay for Get Out
- ‘This Is Me’ from The Greatest Showman wins Best Original Song
- A Fantastic Woman from Chile wins Best Foreign Language Film
And there you have it. My predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. The 90th edition. I’m expecting them to show a lot of memories of the past. One thing I hope for this year is that they have all their envelopes right. Whatever the situation, it looks to be one entertaining night.
Oscars 2017 Shorts Review: Live-Action and Animation
Once again, I had the luck to see the shorts nominated for the Oscars for Best Live-Action Short Film and Best Animated Short Film. All were entertaining in their own way and all showed the qualities of why they were nominated.
Anyways here are my thoughts on this year’s nominated shorts:
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILMS:
Last year, all nominated shorts were in a language other than English. This year, four of the nominated shorts were in English. This year’s crop of stories are impressive to see. All five have a wide variety from the funny to the thought-provoking.
DeKalb Elementary: dir. Reed van Dyk – Today is supposed to be an ordinary day at an elementary school in the US, but a young man with an assault rifle comes in and threatens people. The receptionist tries deal one-on-one with him. She notices some mental instability and even some flaws in his thinking. She feels she can talk him into withdrawing his gun. She is able to talk with him, talk to law authorities, and get him to cooperate. In the end, the man is arrested and no one dies.
This is a remarkable story, especially since this is being shown during a time when a shooting incident in a Florida high school made headlines. It’s remarkable because it takes you there into the moment. You feel the intensity. Plus seeing in the film how brains win over brawn make this an incredible story to watch. That’s why this is my Will Win pick.
The Eleven O’Clock: dirs. Derin Seale & Josh Lawson – A psychiatrist in 1980’s Australia has an appointment with a delusional mental patient who thinks he’s a psychiatrist. The doctor thinks he can handle it until he meets face to face with the patients. Soon it becomes an all-out verbal battle of madness and idiocies. Looks like he finally met his match.
For once, it’s nice to take a break from some of the more serious stuff and see something comedic. It was very enjoyable and can leave you hating the patient. However it has an appropriately bizarre ending where you’re left to wonder is he the doctor or the patient?
My Nephew Emmett: dir. Kevin Wilson Jr. – This is a depiction of what may have happened the night before the 1955 abduction and lynching of 14 year-old Chicago boy Emmett Till who was just staying with his uncle’s family in Money, Mississippi, but was a victim of racism instead. His murder and his alleged killer’s acquittal would play a part in the Civil Rights Movement.
This might be a fictional depiction of what happened before, but it was very good in sending the message that all Emmett Till was doing was being a typical 14 year-old boy. Having it from the uncle’s point of view is important as the uncle would be interviewed by the media shortly after. It does a very good job of storytelling from the uncle’s point of view as well as recapturing the moments as they happen.
The Silent Child: dirs. Chris Overton & Rachel Shenton – A rich family hires a tutor to help with their 4 year-old deaf daughter. The tutor works very well with the daughter and gets her to sign. The results are pleasing to the father and her siblings, but the mother has higher demands. It gets to the point the mother makes a questionable drastic choice for the daughter.
The story is very good. It also catches your intrigue whether the mother has these high demands because she has high expectations or because she’s trying to cover up a family secret? The story reminds us that the connection between the deaf child and the tutor is a bond we so easily forget about.
Watu Wote/ All Of Us: dirs. Katja Benrath & Tobias Rosen – This is based on a true story. This takes place on a bus trip close to the Kenyan-Somali border. Christians and Muslims travel in the same bus. All have animosity towards each other. One passenger, Jua, has a certain animosity towards Muslims. Her husband and child were killed by a Muslim. She lets the Islamic ‘teacher’ raising money for his student know it. Then the bus is attacked by the group Al-Shabaab. They demand that all Christians be brought forth, but the Muslims defend by quoting scriptures from the Koran to protect them. At the end, police arrive and the teacher is shot. Jua is the one looking after him as they drive to safety.
This is the only film not in the English language. This story may be the darkest of all the stories nominated, but it’s very thought-provoking and it sticks with you. It packs a lot in its 20 minutes of time. You can really feel the hurt in Jua and you’re surprised to see her compassion in the end. That’s why I make this my Should Win pick.
ANIMATED:
This year’s animated shorts made news of what was included and what was not included. Ever since In A Heartbeat, the animated short of boy meets boy, went viral on YouTube back in August, people predicted it would win the Oscar. Even though it made the shortlist of ten back in December, it did not get nominated. A shock to all fans of the short! As for those that did get nominated:
Dear Basketball: dirs. Glen Keane & Kobe Bryant – This is a pencil-and-paper style of animation drawn by Glen Keane, son of Family Circus cartoonist Bil Keane, and narrated by Kobe Bryant. It’s of the letter Kobe wrote to the sport of basketball upon his retirement.
The film is excellent in how it takes a simple style of animation and successfully makes the audience embrace the athlete’s story of passion. Excellently done. You’ll feel the heart and soul of the story within its four minutes. That’s why I choose this as my Will Win prediction.
Garden Party: dirs. Victor Caire & Gabriel Grapperon – This is funny. A bunch of frogs find themselves over at a mansion. They go around exploring and eating whatever comes their way. Then right as they make their way to the pool area, we learn it’s party time for all!
This is a fun humorous story. The events are slow, but they’re still fun to watch. They’re especially funny when the frogs accidentally find themselves in a mess. The ending is a complete surprise. Nevertheless the short is enjoyable from start to finish.
Lou: dirs. Dave Mullins & Diana Murray – This is the short shown before Cars 3. When kids come in from recess at an elementary school, you can guarantee there will be lots of things left behind. A certain ‘thing’ comes from the lost-and-found bin, which have its L, O and U missing, and gathers up all the stuff in the bin. The school bully J.J. steals the kids’ toys and it’s up for this thing to teach J.J. a lesson, and actually be a friend.
Pixar not only knows how to make a great feature, but they also know how to make a great short too. Even though there’s some dialogue in this short, it is definitely entertaining and fun to watch.
Negative Space: dirs. Max Porter & Ru Kuwahata – A son talks of how his father taught him how to pack and how it’s been passed on as a skill. The son reminisces about it at his father’s funeral.
This is an adaptation of a poem by Ron Koertge. This is a charming story with stop-motion animation. It has a humorous look at a story a son reflects around his father’s funeral. The story ends on a note one didn’t expect it to end on. Nevertheless it’s funny and it has its own unique charm.
Revolting Rhymes: dirs. Jakob Schuh & Jan Lachauer – This is done by the same studio that did the Gruffalo series. This time they return with a story of a babysitter meeting up with a wolf. There we learn the shocking truth of what happened to Little Red Riding Hood, Snow White, and The Three Little Pigs!
It’s a funny and charming short. Does get a bit confusing when you learn about these new ‘truths’ and even surprising when you learn some shocking things like the Seven Dwarfs’ gambling problem. Well-written, well-animated and very entertaining. That’s why I give it my Should Win pick.
And there’s my look at this year’s Oscar nominated short films. Lots of creativity and a lot of good storytelling. However the shorts are two of the hardest categories to predict the winner. The winners are often a surprise. Time will tell this Sunday.
My Predictions For The 2017 Academy Award Nominees
I know I haven’t been too active on my blog lately. I’m just slowly getting my energy back. Recent new subscribers have definitely boosted my ambition again. I have seen a good number of movies lately and will be posting reviews soon.
One thing that won’t change is that I have posted my predictions for the Oscar nominations. Of course I would post my picks and guesses for who will get the nominations on Tuesday morning. Just below are my predictions for this year’s Oscar nominees:
BEST PICTURE
- The Big Sick
- Call Me By Your Name
- The Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- I, Tonya
- Lady Bird
- The Post
- The Shape Of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST DIRECTOR
- Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
BEST ACTOR
- Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
- Tom Hanks,The Post
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
BEST ACTRESS
- Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
- Meryl Streep, The Post
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Hong Chau, Downsizing
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape Of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape Of Water
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Emily Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul
- James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
- Scott Neustadter & Michael Weber, The Disaster Artist
- Dee Rees & Virgil Williams, Mudbound
- Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- The Boss Baby
- The Breadwinner
- Coco
- Ferdinand
- Loving Vincent
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
- Bruno Delbonnel, The Darkest Hour
- Dan Lautsen, The Shape Of Water
- Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
- Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
- Jacqueline Durran, Beauty And The Beast
- Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman
- Jennifer Johnson, I, Tonya
- Luis Sequeira, The Shape Of Water
BEST FILM EDITING
- Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name
- Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
- Gregory Plotkin, Get Out
- Lee Smith, Dunkirk
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- A Fantastic Woman – Chile
- In The Fade – Germany
- Foxtrot – Israel
- Loveless – Russia
- The Square – Sweden
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
- Beauty And The Beast
- The Darkest Hour
- Wonder
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Alexandre Desplat, The Shape Of Water
- Benjamin Walfisch & Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049
- John Williams, The Post
- Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Home” – Ferdinand
- “Mighty River” – Mudbound
- “Mystery Of Love” – Call Me By Your Name
- “Remember Me” – Coco
- “This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Beauty And The Beast
- Blade Runner 2049
- Dunkirk
- Murder On The Orient Express
- Phantom Thread
BEST SOUND MIXING
- Baby Driver
- Blade Runner 2049
- Dunkirk
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- Wonder Woman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Blade Runner 2049
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- Thor: Ragnarok
- War For The Planet Of The Apes
- Wonder Woman
Those are my predictions for nominations. I also include predictions for possible upsetters for my main predictions. I predict upsetters for all the major categories, but not every category. Just for those in the case I feel they could get nominated instead of the favorites. Without further ado, here is my list for the most likely upsetters:
BEST PICTURE
- The Florida Project
- Phantom Thread
- Wonder Woman
BEST DIRECTOR
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Steven Spielberg, The Post
BEST ACTOR
- James Franco, The Disaster Artist
- Denzel Washington, Romeo J. Israel
BEST ACTRESS
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Emma Stone, Battle Of The Sexes
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water
- Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
- Leslie Manville, Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Liz Hannah & Josh Singer, The Post
- Steven Rogers, I, Tonya
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Jason Fuchs & Alan Heinberg, Wonder Woman
- Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad & Stephen Chbodsky, Wonder
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Despicable Me 3
- Napping Princess
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Sayonbhu Mukdeprom, Call Me By Your Name
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Renee April, Blade Runner 2049
BEST FILM EDITING
- Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
- Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape Of Water
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- On Body And Soul – Hungary
- Felicite – Senegal
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
- I, Tonya
- The Shape Of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Johnny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
- Rupert Gregson-Williams, Wonder Woman
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Evermore” – Beauty And The Beast
- “Stand Up For Something” – Marshall
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- The Shape Of Water
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BEST SOUND MIXING
- The Shape Of Water
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Dunkirk
- Kong: Skull Island
Tune in Tuesday morning live to see which predictions I got right and which I got wrong. Should make for an interesting lot.
Golden Globes Turn 75: And My Predictions
Ever since the Golden Globes were introduced in 1944, they’ve become one of the most prestigious awards on the entertainment circuit. Only the Oscar or the Emmy are more coveted.
Today will be the awarding of the Golden Globes. This year isn’t just any Golden Globes, but the 75th to take place.
A Very Brief History
Some of you may wonder how did the Golden Globes come to be? Firstly, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was founded in 1943 by Los Angeles-based journalists to give a more organized process of distributing cinema news to markets outside the U.S. The following year, they formed their own film awards, the Golden Globes, to give their opinions of who are the best of the year. While the AMPAS Academy consists primarily of professionals in their respective film field, the Golden Globes would be the decisions of these journalists.
The very first Golden Globes held back in 1944 consisted of six categories: Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting categories. Their decisions for the winners would be three for six with the Oscar winners. The Song Of Bernadette was chosen as the Best Picture winner while the Oscars went for Casablanca. Same thing with Best Director; Globes chose Bernadette director Henry King while the Academy favored Casablanca director Michael Curtiz. The acting categories almost completely matched each other as Globe-winners Paul Lukas, Jennifer Jones and Katina Paxinou would also win the Oscars later. Only Supporting Actor winner Akim Tamiroff from For Whom The Bell Tolls wouldn’t win an Oscar, despite being nominated.
Over the years, the Golden Globes would grow in popularity as their matches would be very close to that of the Oscars. They would also include cinematography categories temporarily and even a Best New Star category, which would be retired after the 1983 awards. The eighth Golden Globes would see the Awards giving separate awards for Best Picture and lead acting in both drama and comedy or musical. Something that still continues today. The Golden Globes would start to include awards to television starting in 1955: six years after the Emmy awards were created.
The Golden Globes would eventually become the second-most coveted film or television awards with only the Oscars or the Emmies being more coveted. It’s not to say it hasn’t been without its controversies, and not just because of hosting done by the likes of Rickyy Gervais et al. The make up of the Hollywood Foreign Press is often under question for their qualifications. Also their tendency to favor glitz and glamor at times have made people wonder at their choices. Even how in cases where one actress who did an interview for the HFP would later receive an award would get some people wondering. There was even suspicion at the 1981 Awards when Pia Zadora won Best New Star for her performance in Butterfly. Some claim that Meshulem Riklis, her millionaire husband at the time, paid the HFP to have her win. However nothing has been proven. Also it goes to show that there’s no such thing as an impartial judging body for any awards show. The Oscars and the Golden Globes are no exceptions to that. Nevertheless they still remain the most coveted.
And My Predictions For This Year
This year’s Golden Globes will be hosted by Seth Meyers. Some are saying he can be as controversial as Ricky Gervais tonight. This year’s Globes have fourteen categories for film and eleven categories for television. To start things off, here are my predictions for both the winners and their respective most likely upsetters in the film categories:
FILM:
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Dunkirk
Most Likely Upsetter: Call Me By Your Name
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Get Out
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Most Likely Upsetter: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Most Likely Upsetter: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most Likely Upsetter: Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Most Likely Upsetter: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Most Likely Upsetter: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Director
Winner: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water
Most Likely Upsetter: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape Of Water
Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: The Square (Sweden)
Most Likely Upsetter: Loveless (Russia)
Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Coco
Most Likely Upsetter: Loving Vincent
Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Remember Me”, Coco
Most Likely Upsetter: “Mighty River”, Mudbound
Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Most Likely Upsetter: John Williams, The Post
Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. So my predictions for the winners:
TELEVISION:
Best TV Movie or Miniseries: Big Little Lies
Best TV Series, Drama: The Handmaid’s Tale
Best TV Series, Comedy: Black-ish
Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Aziz Ansari, Master Of None
Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Robert De Niro, The Wizard Of Lies
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
And there you go. Those are my predictions for tonight’s Golden Globe awards. Winners to be revealed starting 8pm EST.
My Predictions For The 2016 Academy Awards
DISCLAIMER: There was an incomplete post like this yesterday. The reason was I was editing from my smartphone and intended to update the draft, not publish the blog. It published anyways. This blog here is my complete blog for Oscar predictions.
The Academy Awards are here. I’ve seen enough movies to make up 82 of the nominations this year. It was quite the year with lots to offer and a lot of things that appeared guaranteed weren’t. So without further ado, let’s get on with the predictions:
BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP
You all saw my three summaries of all nine nominees. Doing shorter summaries were better for me this year. Maybe next year I won’t be so busy or have as many ailments. So here goes for predicting the winner:
-Arrival- This is the first movie about aliens to be nominated for an Oscar. A very smart film that was loaded with buzz when it first came out. However its awards excitement faded over time as did its Best Picture chances.
-Fences- I like it when I see a celebrated play brought to the big screen. Especially around Oscar time. I felt it was done excellently. However it is up in this category against meatier competition. This is one category I think Fences won’t win.
-Hacksaw Ridge- Very rarely does a pro-religion movie have a chance for Best Picture. Hacksaw Ridge is the pro-religion film in the past 15 years most deserving of a nomination. However it does have some formulaic elements that come up every now and then and it has better chances in the technical categories instead of Best Picture.
-Hell Or High Water- This year’s ‘summer survivor.’ Those like me who missed out on it during the summer missed out on a gem. A crime story that’s funny and entertaining, but smart too. However I’m not too optimistic in its Oscar chances here.
-Hidden Figures- This movie started with very little Oscar buzz at first but it increased as rapport from the film–from both critics and audience alike– grew. It seems like it doesn’t have good chances to win Best Picture but it could pull a surprise. A very slim chance of that but it is likely.
-La La Land- What can I say? People have been embracing it in droves. Why? Because people just really like a good musical? Because of its feel? Because it reminds one of the charm of old Hollywood? Whatever it is, it’s made it the frontrunner that looks hard to beat. That’s why it’s my Will Win pick. the biggest reason why I hope it win is because last year I said: “One more Best Picture winner that fails to gross $100 million and I’m done Oscarwatching.” I don’t know what made me carry on even after Spotlight won– and it didn’t even make $50 million— but La La Land makes me glad I did.
-Lion- I’m no expert in Oscar trivia but I think this is the first Australian film to be nominated for Best Picture, and a deserving nominee. It’s won over everyone I know who has seen it. It may have had better Best Picture chances in another year.
-Manchester By The Sea- This is a film that was loaded with buzz at the beginning of the Oscar race and looked to be the one film that could beat out La La Land. The buzz faded over time, despite how great the film was. May have an outside chance but not too likely.
-Moonlight- This is one film that proves that less is more. Less dialogue, more of a feel of what’s happening. Less showy characters, more knowing who the characters are. Less singing and dancing, more feel for the music in the film. This is the surprise of the Oscar race that was able to let it speak for itself. I know it faces a hell of a fight against La La Land to win Best Picture but I give this my Should Win pick.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should Win – Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Will Win – Damien Chazelle, La La Land
I felt that Moonlight is the better picture and Jenkins did an excellent job of directing but I know this is the year of La La Land and it’s Damien Chazelle’s to take.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win and Will Win – Denzel Washington, Fences
These past two years saw the rise of the #OscarsSoWhite outcry. This year there are seven non-white acting nominees. Denzel may have won twice before but his performance as Troy Maxson has been getting loads of buzz and even surprised favorite Casey Affleck at the SAG Awards. The only way I can see Casey winning instead of Denzel is if the Academy doesn’t want to make this his third Oscar, and it is a possibility.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win – Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Will Win – Emma Stone, La La Land
Some are saying that Isabelle Huppert looks to be the biggest threat to Emma Stone’s win. It is a possibility but I think Casey Affleck beating out Denzel appears more likely. It’s Emma’s to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win and Will Win – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Mahershala Ali may have only been seen in the first part of Moonlight but there was something about his performance of Juan that stood out like no other supporting performance this year. Was it Juan’s charisma? Was it his silent coolness? Whatever it is, it’s what made Mahershala stand out this year among all the supporting actor performances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win and Will Win – Viola Davis, Fences
What can I say? If there’s anyone who can steal the show from Denzel, it’s Viola Davis. She reminded us very well that Fences wasn’t just about Troy Maxson. It was about Rose too.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win – Taylor Sheridan, Hell Or High Water
Will Win – Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
A lot of people are expecting Damien Chazelle to do it again here but I feel that Kenneth Lonergan will take it for one of the best scripts of the year. It was a film that cuts deep and doesn’t water down.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win and Will Win – Barry Jenkins and Terell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight
It all started with a short story by McCraney, then Jenkins developed a screenplay, and now it’s one of the best of the year. No stopping it.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should Win: Kubo And The Two Strings
Will Win: Zootopia
Kubo was the best at taking your imagination away this year. However in comparison to frontrunner Zootopia, it isn’t really all that family friendly and that I believe is where it will hurt it. Zootopia was without a doubt this year’s crowd charmer. Besides this is the one category Disney wants to take year after year.
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Will Win: La La Land
Let’s face it. Any movie that shows off the classic areas in Los Angeles and even meshes it into the present will win this category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: O. J. Simpson: Made In America
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Tom Cross, La La Land
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Salesman director Asghar Farhadi has been the subject of news as it was believed Donald Trump’s travel ban could prevent him from attending the Oscars. Whatever the situation, he boycotted the Oscars in protest of Trump’s policies.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: A Man Called Ove
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
I’m sure we’ve all been waiting for the longest time for a musical of original composition. Especially the Academy.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Should Win: ‘Audition (The Fools Who Dream)’, La La Land
Will Win: ‘City Of Stars’, La La Land
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Will Win: La La Land
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: The Jungle Book
I think the reason why Star Wars lost this category last year is because having the best digital effects of the year is expected for a Star Wars movie. That’s where The Jungle Book has the edge for this year.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:
Click here for reviews and predictions.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Click here for reviews and predictions.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
Will Win: Joe’s Helmet
JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS
I did this for the first time last year. I want to do it again this year.:
- Moonlight wins Best Picture
- Casey Affleck wins Best Actor for Manchester By The Sea
- Kubo And The Two Strings wins Best Animated Feature
- Arrival wins Best Adapted Screenplay
- Greig Fraser wins Best Cinematography for Lion.
And there you have it. My predictions for Hollywood’s night of nights. Let’s see how Jimmy Kimmel does as host this time.
Oscars 2016 Shorts Reviews: Animation and Live-Action
I’m lucky to be living in Vancouver. It’s one of the few cities one can be able to see the nominated shorts in a big-screen theatre. Gives me a chance to review them myself and even make a should-win pick for myself. This year is quite an array of nominees in both animation and live-action. So without further ado, here are my thoughts on the nominated shorts:
ANIMATED:
-Blind Vaysha (Canada/France): dir. Theodore Ushev- This is a unique 2D animation story of a Bulgarian folk-tale. A story of a girl with one eye that can see the past and one eye that can see the future and cannot live in the present. The story also shows the attempts of others to fix Vaysha’s blindness. The linocut-style animation, however, was unique and had a lot of style and flare to it.
The story doesn’t really end. Instead the film ends asking the audience their perspective. It has a unique narrative point and I get why it’s done that way, but I often wonder if the film ended on the right note.
-Borrowed Time (USA): dirs. Andrew Coats and Lou Hamou-Lhadj – At first you’ll think this is a family-friendly story at the beginning but soon learn it’s not such as you move on. It’s a dark Western story of a man returning to the spot of a family tragedy from his childhood. The hurt comes back from it and he decides to do something drastic but something happens.
I have to admire Pixar animators Coats and Hamou-Lhadj for making a brief departure from their traditional family fare and doing something more mature under Quorum Films. No, it’s not R-rated like Pear Cider And Cigarettes but it’s dark enough to be adult. I think this short is most likely to upset my pick for the winner.
-Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Canada): dirs. Robert Valley and Cara Speller- Now this is a refreshing R-rated alternative. It sometimes reminds you of a Grand Theft Auto video game or the film Waltz With Bashir. However it is a personal story from director Valley. It’s a story that makes you wonder how far would you go for a friend? Especially if that friend is selfish, conniving, irresponsible and manipulative?
It’s a story that entertains and charms and even gets you to hate Techno too. Sometimes I wonder why was he friends with that jerk? I don’t know if it’s because it was set in Vancouver or because it was an R-rated alternative but it won me over and I make it my Should Win pick.
-Pearl (USA): dir. Patrick Osborne- This is the first VR short to be nominated for an Academy Award. A musician and his daughter travel in a hatchback with a song as a bond between the two. We see the two age, the daughter mature into a musician of her own and have her own version of the song. The viewer gets a 360 degree view of the whole 5-minute story.
Looks like something Richard Linklater would do. Actually it might remind you of Waking Life. An excellent short that’s entertaining and will touch you too. Might even make you go to iTunes and download No Wrong Way Home.
-Piper (USA): dirs. Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer- This is the short shown before Finding Dory. A baby bird looking for food on the beach with her mother looking on and guiding her. Pixar does it again by delivering a clever, charming, and entertaining short with the dialogue absent and the animation as detailed to a tee as it gets. It’s excellent, but it’s something we’ve come to expect from Pixar even with their shorts. Nevertheless this is my Will Win prediction.
And those are my thoughts for the Animated Shorts up for the Oscar. A lot of styles of animation between Canadian and American companies. All five were very entertaining. We’ll see who wins.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILMS
This year there are no films with English as the language of the majority. All five are from European countries. Here’s the rundown:
-Ennemis interieurs (France): dir. Selim Azzazi – A man from Algeria seeks to be a French citizen but the interrogator at immigration has big questions for him about meeting with a group of Algerian men back some years ago which led to him being arrested and imprisoned for two years. The interrogator keeps insisting he answers but he’s very reluctant to do so. Even to the point of neglecting his chances of French Citizenship. Why? What will make the man give his answers?
It’s a story that appears boring at first but grows with intrigue with each minute and with each new detail. The interest builds over time. It even makes you wonder why is he withholding the names of the other men? Feelings of brotherhood? Fear of retaliation from them? Also this may be about an incident in the past but it’s very relevant, especially with the Paris bombings happening in November 2015. This is my Will Win pick.
-La Femme et le TGV (Switzerland): dirs. Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff – Elise is a woman who wave her Swiss flag at the passing TGV train to Zurich every time it passes her house at 6 in the morning and 6 in the evening . After that she bicycles to her job at the town patisserie. It’s her daily routine for 30 years; a routine she doesn’t want to change. One day, she comes across a letter that was thrown to her by a man who goes on that daily TGV. He’s a man from France looking for work. The two develop a friendship only by mail and packages. Over time she hopes to meet this man. Then one day the train stops coming. It’s changed route? How will she deal with the change? Will she ever see the man?
It’s a charming comedy that has you engaged with the character (based on a person who has existed and did wave her Swiss flag at passing TGV trains). Gets you thinking about the woman. Is she an eccentric? Is she naive? Lonely? Unpredictable ending but a happy one.
-Silent Nights (Denmark): dirs. Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson – Inger is a young Danish woman who helps at the Salvation Army during the day and looks after her ailing mother at night. Kwame is a Ghanian immigrant who came to Denmark for a better future and to support his wife and children at home. However he’s been left homeless and makes money from recycling.
They both meet as Kwame agrees to help. The two develop a mutual friendship and even progress into something more. However it’s put to the test when Kwame steals money from the charity to pay for his daughter’s malaria treatments. Even though Kwame is banned for life, Inger forgives him and still loves him. Then Inger’s mother dies and she learns about Kwame’s family in Ghana just as she learns she is pregnant. It’s over between the two. However Inger sees Kwame one last time where she gives him advice, and something else.
It’s obvious that this story is about the immigrant situation in Denmark and the difficultly of the times for all. It presents both Inger’s side and Kwame’s side. However it’s more. It’s about a love that’s true. Inger loves Kwame so much, she’s willing to forgive him for all the terrible things he did. It makes the choice she makes for her and her baby look like the right thing. This is my Should Win pick.
-Sing (Hungary) dirs. Kristof Deak and Anna Udvardy – Zsofi is the new girl at a school. She most looks forward to singing in the choir. However on her first rehearsal, the instructor talks of a choir competition where the prize is a performance in Sweden. She also tells Zsofi her voice is not ready for the choir and tells her to lip sync. Along the way, Zsofi finds a friend in star singer Liza. The two become good friends. However Liza notices Zsofi not singing but others. When she brings this up with the instructor, she not only admits it but tries to convince the children it’s the right thing for the competition. All of which leads to a surprise ending and the ending you think is right.
Often I question what the point of this film is. Is it about competitiveness to the point the ‘lesser’ singers are not allowed to sing for the sake of the big prize? Or is it a reminder of Hungary’s past communist regime; of how those that fit in are allowed to and those that don’t aren’t, but make like everything’s okay? Even the choir director could remind you of a communist dictator on retrospect. Whatever the point, the story was entertaining and sweet. Reminds you of the joys of childhood and the right thing paying off in the end.
-Timecode (Spain) dir. Juanjo Gimenez – It starts as a check for a woman on a security job during the day. One day she learns of a broken car light. Upon viewing the video of what happened, she sees the worker before her dancing before hitting the car. She decides to give him a dancing video of her own. Video after video follows. Then on their last day, magic happens.
At first you think the man is something eccentric but this story builds into something that ends on a bizarre note. A very good film.
And there are my thoughts on this year’s nominated shorts. Now remember both categories are the hardest to predict the winner. For example, last year the consensus of critics ranked Stutterer the least likely to win Best Live Action Short and it won. Even Annie wins for Piper and Pear Cider and Cigarettes are not a guarantee that either will win.
With my shorts predictions out of the way, I just have my main predictions for all the categories to deliver. But not before my last Best Picture summary. Coming up tomorrow morning.
