Train Dreams

My Predictions For The 98th Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 2025 Academy Awards are taking place later on this year: March 15th. My assumption is the broadcast of the Winter Olympic Games is what is holding it up this year. It has been done before that the Oscars would move to a later time to make room for the Winter Olympics. Conan O’Brien is back as host. He did such a good job last year, they made him host again this year. Makes sense that they have a comedian or the host of a late night show do the hosting. They’re normally the best at working it.

So now I finally have my predictions for all the categories. This year, I was able to see enough films to make up 100 of this year’s nominations. Many times, I felt I could have seen more. Still an impressive lot. So without wasting any more time, here are my predictions to win and even a few Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, kudos to Olly Gibbs for delivering another excellent Best Picture nominees poster. He knows how to do it! This year, the ten Best Picture nominees have the biggest monopoly of the nominations I’ve seen in years. Eighty of the 125 nomination! That’s more than 60% right there! Sinners and their record-setting total of nominations has what averages out to be one of every eight nominations. Interestingly enough, the second-most nominated film One Battle After Another amassed thirteen nominations: one short of the old record! For acting nominations, Sinners, One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value combined have eleven of the twenty acting nominations and the rest is nine nominations among nine films! Despite all this dominating of nominations, they’re quite well-spread out. None of the Best Picture nominees has less than four nominations. For the Best Picture race, the year looks to be the race between the strong summer sleeper contender and the winter surprise hit, but that will be decided on the 15th. So here are my short reviews and my prediction for Best Picture:

Bugonia- It’s something that of the three films by Yorgos Lanthimos that have been nominated for Best Picture, Emma Stone has acted in all three! This film has less buzz than the other two: The Favourite and Poor Things. The other two were better as they mixed bizarre humor with the scenarios. This also mixes humor but having a present setting seems odd for a Lanthimos film. It’s lack of buzz is why I feel it won’t win.

F1- I don’t know if you feel the same way but I like seeing a summer movie get nominated for Best Picture. The story and the acting were way better than most summer movies. It’s not just any movie about auto racing. It’s a movie the auto racing federation fully endorsed and includes actual F1 racers including some of the best. As for a contender for Best Picture, its only other three nominations are in the technical categories. It’s chances of winning this category are slim to none.

Frankenstein- If there’s one director who you can trust to do an excellent new adaptation to the Frankenstein story, it’s Guillermo del Toro. It’s an excellent thriller to watch and you will get caught up in the drama. This film has enough qualities to deserve its Best Picture nomination but this year, the Academy is not up for thrillers such as these. On top of it, there have been other thrillers that can compete with this.

Hamnet- Is it possible to have a story about the death of a child have a happy ending? Hamnet proves it’s so. This is an excellent film and an excellent story of love, happiness, loss, tragedy and healing. The film is less a historical docudrama and more of a story of how one woman deals with the heartbreak of loss and how she finds healing in the play her husband creates. This film does have a lot of qualities worthy for it to win Best Picture, but this is a tough year for films like these to contend.

Marty Supreme- At first, you wouldn’t think a film about ping-pong in the 1950’s would make for a hit movie but Marty Supreme does it! A lot of it is the underdog story of a ping pong player who constantly gets himself into trouble and embarrassment to beat the odds. A lot of it is also Timothee Chalamet’s performance. The direction from Josh Safdie definitely helps a lot. It is a good contender for the Best Picture win but there are other films with bigger chances.

One Battle After Another- This year, there doesn’t seem to be as many political films. This film has to be the most political. A mixed-race girl whose white supremacist father wants her dead. A former renegade who’s trying to protect her in the name of her mother and his girlfriend. Definitely a dramatic comedy that will keep you intrigued. It’s the story and Paul Thomas Anderson’s know-how in working a story like this that I make it my Will Win pick.

The Secret Agent- It’s something that this is the second straight year a Brazilian film is nominated for Best Picture! It’s deserving as it mixes humor with the story and keeps the drama without dropping the sincerity of the film’s ending. However for a foreign language film to win Best Picture, it has to really stand out in the competition and this film is missing that quality.

Sentimental Value- The increase in the number of foreign-language films nominated for Best Picture is easy to understand if you see the film. This film is excellent for its storytelling and its acting. It’s a drama of a theme many can relate to and mixes the theme of art in family conflict. It’s an excellent drama but for Best Picture, it is up against tougher competition.

Sinners- If there’s one film of 2025 that deserves to be called a masterpiece, this is it. A horror story that blends music, folk legends, the supernatural, demon spirits, and the theme of racism and Jim Crow laws. Definitely a story that’s unforgettable and grabs your attention from start to finish. That’s why I declare this film my Should Win pick and my pick for most likely to upset.

Train Dreams- The film feels like a nice piece of Americana. Just as much as the novel it’s based on feels like a piece of Americana. It does a great job of giving the audience the feel of the area it’s set in as it tells the story. As for its Best Picture chances, it doesn’t have a good shot as there is tougher competition.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

The Best Director category is one contest where it is too tough to call. Two great directors directing the two most lauded films of 2025. One is set in the past while another is an adapted story set to the present. Both of them mix politics into their stories. Both of them have something to say. It’s a tough call but I think Paul Thomas Anderson will take it. It’s a career of almost 30 years that started with his 1996 debut Hard Eight. He first caught the Academy’s eye with 1997’s Boogie Nights where he got his first Oscar nomination for screenplay. He got his first Best Director nomination for 2007’s There Will Be Blood. Further acclaim would grow with Inherent Vice, Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza. Many cinephiles look to One Battle After Another to finally be his time.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

The Academy has some interesting factoids about how picky and choosy they are about awarding certain Oscars. One out of every three Best Actress Oscar wins have gone to actresses before their 30th birthday. The most recent, Mikey Madison, was last year. As of today, only one Best Actor Oscar win went to an actor before his 30th birthday. The most recent, Adrien Brody, is that actor but he won for The Pianist in 2003. Last year, Timothy Chalamet had a chance to break that record with A Complete Unknown. Although he can’t break that record as he just turned 30 in December, his performance is Marty Supreme looks poised to do that. The only thing is there was surprise at SAG’s Actor awards with Michael B. Jordan winning for Sinners.

Not only has Jordan’s win been seen as a big boost, but lately Chalamet’s talk has been making headlines for negative reasons. It wasn’t just his comments on ballet and opera. Some time ago, he said Hollywood stars should stop being pretentious. That can boost Jordan’s chances of winning. Even without the eyebrow-raising talk of Chalamet, Michael’s performance as two twin brothers of differing personalities and one being possessed by the spirit is excellent work deserving of the Oscar. Chalamet still remains as my pick for the one most likely to upset.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

I am going to make my write-up here short because I’m that confident about here win. She’s that clear of a favorite because this happens to be the best actress performance of the year. In a film about a play inspired by a tragedy to William Shakespeare, it’s the performance of the actress playing his wife is what makes the film. Jessie’s performance of Agnes Shakespeare is loaded with dimension and will touch you. Her performance sets the mood of the film and gives character to a famous playwright’s wife whom few know much of. Her performance of going from having the joy of life to hurting from tragedy to a triumph of healing at the end is just completely remarkable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

It’s often the case that one of the toughest categories to predict the winner is in the supporting acting categories. And understandably so. It’s a question of which supporting performance stole the show? Which performance qualifies as lead? Which performance brought the most during its short time? It’s hard to decide. This year’s contenders don’t make it any easier. Despite winning the SAG Actor award, I have a feeling Sean Penn won’t win. He’s won two Oscars before. I also feel his One Battle After Another co-star Benicio del Toro won’t win because he won back in 2000 for Traffic.

I feel the win will go to the Golden Globe winner, Stellan Skarsgård. Skarsgård could arguably qualify to make a running for lead actor. His performance as the father trying to make amends with his relationships with his daughters and his film work is both intense and touching. He really magnifies someone who’s both flawed and troubled, but seeks to make things right, despite his shortcomings. I feel he should win it.

Should Win and Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons

It’s interesting in this category. A mixed bag of winners throughout this season. Wunmi taking the BAFTA, Teyana taking the Golden Globe, and Amy taking the SAG and Critics Choice. I have to go with Amy. It’s easy to think that she, not Julia Garner, is the lead actress. She does a great job of playing a villain who’s both manipulative and threatening. She does a convincing job of playing a villain who knows how to instill fear in a child and mess with adults. Her performance has a lot to do with why Weapons is a box office hit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

I’m sure most of you have not read the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland. If you haven’t, it shouldn’t make much of a difference in terms of watching the film. Still worth reading. Nevertheless the theme of ‘fascist Nixonian repression’ that is present in the novel appears very similar to what the United States is going through now. It makes great sense for Paul Thomas Anderson to adapt the story into a scenario fit for the present and with themes of extremism between the left and the right and physical clashes between them that mirror what’s happening today. It also succeeds in adding comedic elements to the film. This is nothing short of an accomplishment.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners

I have to say the 2020’s is the decade the horror movie genre is finally getting its overdue respect. One film of this year to add to its respect is Sinners. It’s more than just vampires and evil spirits. It’s folk legends, music, vampirism and the theme of racism that’s mixed into this story that makes this film a masterpiece. Usually film companies save the films with the best Oscar chances for December. This past summer delivered one for this history books!

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

This year, the favorites to win the Oscars appears to be more solid than most years. Also this year, it’s an even balance in both the major categories and the technical categories of solid favorites and potential upsetters. They’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

How about that? In a category Disney or Pixar win most of the time, they’ve only won once in the 2020’s. This decade has seen a lot of film studios deliver an Oscar-winning film. This year, it looks to be Sony Pictures Animation in cooperation with Netflix. A movie about a K-pop trio who has what it takes to slay demons is the most winning animated film this year. Its wins at this year’s Annie Awards was even ten-for-ten! Hard to see any rivalry in this category.

BEST CASTING

Should Win And Will Win: Francine Maisler – Sinners

This is the newest Oscar category. The Oscar gets awarded to the casting director and this award is boosted by having the Casting Director branch of the Academy that opened in 2013 and now totals 160 in 2026 and can now finally choose the nominees fort this category. With this being the debut year for this Oscar category, there are only a few awards shows that give out this award. There’s the Critics Choice, the BAFTAs, the Astras, there’s the SAG Award for Best Acting Ensemble which can have some impact and the profession’s guild, the Casting Society of America, has their Artios Awards. Maybe there will be more next year. Most of these awards have given the win to Sinners. It would not surprise me if Francine Maisler makes history in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win:  Kate Hawley – Frankenstein

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win:  The Perfect Neighbor

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Frankenstein

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win:  “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau – Frankenstein

BEST SOUND

Will Win: F1: The Movie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will Win: All The Empty Rooms

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be some shockers but mostly clear favorites. Nevertheless it’s the way every year that the Oscars are not immune to upsets. For this section, I will only limit myself to five potential shockers for Sunday night

  • Sean Penn from One Battle After Another winning Best Supporting Actor.
  • Autumn Durald Arkapaw winning Best Cinematography for Sinners.
  • Mr. Nobody Against Putin winning Best Documentary.
  • Sentimental Value (Norway) winning Best International Feature Film (Also my Should Win pick).
  • “I Lied To You” from Sinners winning Best Original Song.

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. It may have come late in the year, but it’s a good thing as you’ll have warmer weather for your Oscar parties.

Oscars 2025 Best Picture Reviews: Part Five

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

I didn’t think I could do it but I did it. And this soon! All ten Best Picture nominees reviewed. And these are the last two. One just set an Oscars record for the most nominations (16) and the other was the big winner at the Independent Spirit Awards:

Sinners

The most unique thing about this film is that it goes on a common theme of how past generations of peoples would see music as a way to heal but also some music that is evil and is able to unleash demons. This story helps imagine of such a type of music or such musicians that can unleash a type of evil spirits or in this case, create a set of vampires. The setting appears to be right. Two African American twins, the Smokestack Twins, rent out a sawmill for a night of entertainment for their people. They do the dealing and inviting and even bring their younger cousin Sammie to play, despite his minister father’s religious objections. Meanwhile an Irish vampire is sheltered by a couple who belong to the KKK. The vampire infects them and they come to the event just as everyone’s partying. Despite their initial rejection, they find a way to infect those from the party and turn them into vampires themselves.

It’s the story of mixing the theme of music as something wicked and playing on that theme as white musical vampires use it to lure people to their spell and become vampires themselves where they become enslaved by the leader. It’s also the theme of music as something good as it helps connect with both generations past that adds to the theme of the overall story. Outside of music, it’s also the theme of racism in the film. Whites who are part of the KKK own this Mississippi land. The twins learned a thing or two about money and they try to prove they’re not inferior by proving their purchasing power to the white men. A group of singing white vampires, including two KKK members, who find a way to infect some attendees and turn them under their spell. This can definitely stimulate a lot of talk about racism and Jim Crow laws. And all this in a story about a young musician who gets his first break in a gig that will haunt him for the rest of his life, and have him decide his future.

Now this film became the surprise hit film of the summer. Normally horror films and films of the supernatural are good at winning crowds and stimulating intrigue, but most film critics look down upon the genre. These past ten years has helped in giving this genre its long overdue respect. This film helps add to the respect of the genre of various music styles. Mind you this is not your typical horror film. The twins thought their only problems they had to deal with was Jim Crow racism, but a bigger more supernatural threat was coming their way. Being a story about music bringing demons out, both in the spirit world and down to Earth, this horror story goes above and beyond what one would expect for a horror story. With music being a central theme, the film delivers on a lot of excellent songs that can make you appreciate the genre it represents. Easy to see why this film that was quietly released in the summer became one of the biggest hits.

Biggest acclaim has to go to writer/director Ryan Coogler. His illustrious career took off with 2013’s Fruitvale Station, which was also the breakthrough film for Michael B. Jordan. Further success would come with 2015’s Creed, 2018’s Black Panther and its 2022 sequel Wakanda Forever. This film is his masterpiece. It’s a film no one expected to be a hit and comes across as a difficult story to write and a difficult film to direct, but Coogler masters it. In the end comes the film of 2025 I can most label a masterpiece! Definitely a classic for the future.

One of the biggest strengths of the film is its acting. Top accolades should go to Michael B. Jordan. He’s worked with Coogler before with Fruitvale Station, Creed and the two Black Panther films. Here, he does the remarkable job of two twin brothers. He’s able to know the characterizations well and portrays Smoke as the serious one and Stack as the more playful one very well. Then to have Stack become a vampire and Smoke to fight the vampire spirits. To do the two roles and know what to play when is a job and a half. Especially for a film like this.

The supporting acting of the film really stands out. The top standout has to be Miles Caton as Sammie Moore. For a debut role as a young musician looking for his big moment and being horrified with all that happened, that is no easy task. Miles masters it like nobody’s business. Miles is also great at singing the blues. In fact, some of the best acting of this film comes from the performances that include singing. Delroy Lindo is very believable as Delta Slim. His delivery of the performance gets you believing he really is a blues legend. Wunmi Musaku gave an excellent performance as Smoke’s estranged wife and she can sing very well too. Other standout performances in the film include Hailee Steinfeld as Stack’s former girlfriend, Jayme Lawson as a singer who seduces Sammie, Jack O’Connell as the leader of the vampires, Li Jun LI as the shopkeeper’s wife, and the legendary Buddy Guy portraying the older Sammie at the end! Kudos to casting director Francine Maisler for making the right choices!

Just as equally deserved as praise and the reason for this film’s record-setting sixteen Oscar nominations are the technical efforts. If you take away the three Oscar categories for small films as well as the categories for Animated, Documentary and International Film, you’d see Sinners has a nomination in all those categories! The sound technicalities and the visual effects stand out. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne did a great job in the set designs and succeeded in turning back time. Also turning back time is Ruth E. Carter in costuming. Autumn Durald Arkapaw did a great job in cinematography.

The standout technical effort in this film has to be the music. Swedish composer Ludwig Goransson did a great job in delivering a score that respects the African American music styles and succeeds in creating the right mood for the film. Of the songs in the film “I Lied To You” which was written by Goransson and Raphael Saadiq stood out as it succeeds in making us believe it’s an old-time blues song. The whole film plays a wide variety of songs whether it’s sung by the actors or played as background music. When you watch the film and listen to the songs, it’s almost like the film is saluting music itself. The film magnifies the charm of the music styles. Even styles of music we come to dismiss as hokey, the film highlights the charming part of the style we didn’t bother to see the whole time. Music is the central theme of the film so it makes sense to have top-notch music.

Sinners is a film that’s indescribable. You could describe it as a horror movie or a drama set in the past or a musical. You can be both wrong and right. The film defies convention and delivers a masterpiece that’s unforgettable!

Train Dreams

A lot has changed in the film world over the last 25 years. The types of films that would find its way in film festivals and would find itself getting a chance at the box office would now find themselves on Netflix if they’re lucky. That doesn’t mean such films won’t be seen by the public or are out of chances for the Oscars. That was the case of Train Dreams as it made its debut at Sundance 2025, was shown in select theatres for Oscar eligibility and would become a Netflix film. A film about an 80 year-old hermit living in the forests of the Rocky Mountains a century ago doesn’t make for an attention-grabber of a film. How it attracts intrigue is it’s a story about one simple man and how he encompasses our own human feelings. Robert Grainier goes through the happiest of moments when he falls in love, marries and has a daughter. He goes through the hardest of heartbreaks when he loses them seemingly forever in a fire. He has feelings of hope as he hopes they may have survived and just moved off. Even feelings of hope as he meets Claire and the chance to start a new life for himself. He has feelings of hopelessness as his ageing no longer makes him physically able to do forestry work. He has images that haunt him like the Chinese worker who was killed, those in the forestry work who were killed on the job, or his wife Gladys and daughter Kate who give him haunting messages. He connects with all sorts of people from co-workers to people in town to people doing other work close by, even if it only appears to be a temporary connection with them. That seems to be it about the story of Robert Grainier. He’s a man whom people come and go in his life — even those closest to him — but he seems to find a purpose to his life. Having lost so many people, some tragically, he could do himself in and end it all, but he continues to live. And it’s all the better for him.

The unique thing about the film is not just about Robert Grainier and how he seems to be an ‘everyman’ character, but also happening in a time in the United States in the past. It’s a rare time to be in the forests of the American Northwest in the 1920’s. The film shows of a United States that used to be. A United States that was on the growth and Grainier was a part of it. It shows a nature of the United States that would soon fall prey to urbanisation. Grainier is part of both what nature gives to him generously and what nature takes form him cruelly. Even with urbanisation, Grainier doesn’t take himself away from the nature until his visit to Spokane in the 1960’s. The nature of the forests and the mountains Grainier is a part of is just as fascinating as the simple life of Grainier himself.

This film is another achievement for director Clint Bentley. He has only had four years of film work but he has created achievements like 2021’s Jockey and co-writing the script with Greg Kwedar for 2024’s Sing Sing. For this he directs, he collaborates again with Kwedar to adapt the 2011 novella form the late Denis Johnson. The novella received praise for its work and was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize. Here, Bentley brings it to life and creates a story about the man and the time he lives in. He makes it a story that’s also about the people that come and go in his life and make it a story in which we the audience can find enriching. It’s an excellent achievement.

The film single-handedly belongs to Joel Edgerton. The whole story revolves around the life of Robert Grainier: a fictional man living in the forests of the American Northwest. Joel not only acts the role of Grainier out well but he also tells his story well. He tells his story and helps connect the characters of the story. The film is also as much about the people in Robert’s life as it is about him. Being the centrepiece, Edgerton makes the story of Grainier come alive.

Although the film is mostly Edgerton playing Grainier, the actors playing the supporting roles also add to the film very well. Felicity Jones did a great job of playing his wife Gladys who is able to win his heart. William H. Macy is also great as the explosives worker Arn Peeples who considers trees to be spirits. For a short period of time, Macy is able to steal the attention away. Kerry Condon is also great as Claire who is able to connect with him and share her loss with his. The film also features a lot of great technical achievements like the cinematography of Adolpho Veloso. His images really captured the region and helped to make the story. Malgosia Turganska made excellent decisions in the choice of costumes for the film’s costuming, fitting the eras well. The score from Bryce Dessner does a great job in capturing the atmosphere and drama of the film.

Train Dreams may come across as a slow film of boring subject matter but if you give it a fair chance, you will come to like the story it tells. It’s a story where one man can reflect our own feelings in his lifetime. It also feels like a piece of Americana.

And that does it. I am now complete in my reviews of the Best Picture contenders of 2025. It’s up for the winners to all be decided on Sunday March 15th.