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My Predictions For The 2022 Academy Award Nominations

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Yep, it’s that time of the year again. The Oscar nominations. The day when we learn of the contenders for the Best Picture and the ‘final five’ for all the other categories. Lots of talk is bound to happen about the nominees. There will also be lots of talk about the highly lauded performances that got snubbed out. The Oscar snubs are what I describe as our annual reminder that sometimes, excellent isn’t good enough. Nevertheless the nominated performances and nominated films should tell a lot about which films hte Academy could favor come the day of the Awards.

This year’s Oscar awards will be awarded on Sunday, March 12th. This year’s nominations will be happening Monday. Two weeks earlier than last year. This has been a case of an adjustment every year as it tries to get back to the way things were before the COVID pandemic. In the meantime, here are my predictions for this year’s Academy Award nominations:

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar:Way Of The Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
Edward Berger – All Quiet On The Western Front
Todd Field – Tar
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Tar
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwiler – Till
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brian Tyre Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Dolly de Leon – Thriangle Of Sadness

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Todd Field – Tar
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stockell – All Quiet On The Western Front
Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said
Sarah Polley – Women Talking

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel The Shell With The Shoes On
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Russell Carpenter – Avatar: Way Of The World
Roger Deakins – Empire Of Light
Greg Fraser – The Batman
Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick
Mandy Walker – Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris
Ruth Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin – Elvis
Gersha Phillips – The Woman King
Mary Zophres – Babylon

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All The Beauty And Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire Of Love
Navalny

BEST FILM EDITING
Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick
Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar – The Fabelmans
Mikkel Nielsen – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet On The Western Front – Germany
Argentina, 1985 – Argentina
Close – Belgium
Decision To Leave – South Korea
EO – Poland

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Babylon
The Batman
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Carter Burwell – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hilda Gudnadottir – Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
John Williams – The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Carolina” – Where The Crawdads Sing
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Life Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind And Me” – Selena Gomez: My Mind And Me
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on The Western Front
Avatar: Way Of The Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis

BEST SOUND
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: Way Of The Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: Way Of The Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
New Moon
Save Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
38 At The Garden
The Elephant Whisperers
The Flagmakers
How Do You Measure A Year?
Nuisance Bear

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
The Red Suitcase
Warsha

Just like I did in past years, I not only did predictions for the nominees but also possible upsetters in most of the categories. Those who’ve tracked Oscar nominations over the years will be very familiar with upsetters. So here are my picks for the potential upsetters:

BEST PICTURE
Aftersun
The Whale
The Woman King

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron – Avatar: Way Of The Water
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

BEST ACTOR
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Hugh Jackman – The Son

BEST ACTRESS
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Margot Robbie – Babylon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Park Chan-wook and Jeong Seo-gyong – Decision To Leave
Ruben Ostlund – Triangle Of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Five writers – Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Inu Oh
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
James Friend – All Quiet On The Western Front
Janusz Kaminski – The Fabelmans

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans
Jenny Eagan – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Moonage Daydream
The Territory

BEST FILM EDITING
Sven Budelman – All Quiet On The Western Front
Five editors – Avatar: Way Of The Water

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Holy Spider – Denmark
The Quiet Girl – Ireland

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet On The Western Front
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Simon Franglen – Avatar: Way Of The Water
Ludwig Goransson – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Applause” – Tell It Like A Woman
“Stand Up” – Till

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST SOUND
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness
Thirteen Lives

Those are my predictions for the nominations for the 2022 Academy Awards. The nominees will be revealed the morning of Tuesday the 24th. Lots of talk for who will be nominated expected. Lots of talk of the snubs expected too, of couse. Ya gotta love social media!

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My Predictions For The 2020 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

To think that before 2020, the Academy was strict about having films viewed in theatres. Internet films were off limits. Then the pandemic happened. Most of the theatres were closed. Most films had to put themselves on online streaming services to have themselves viewed. The Academy became more forgiving in that aspect and allowed for more streamed films to be submitted as entries. The pandemic also caused the Oscars themselves to be delayed until the last Sunday of April. That also meant those other ‘influencer’ award shows would have to delay in compensation of the pandemic too.

Whatever the situation, I was able to see all eight Best Picture nominees. Yes, it involved signing up for more than one streaming service and renting movies on Youtube, but it had to be this year. Hopefully next year, I’ll be back in the theatres. As for this year, I saw them all and now I’m ready to make my opinions for the winners for the 93rd Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Last year, Olly Gibbs did a similar picture of the Best Picture contenders. This year he does it again! I’ll bet most of you who have seen any of the Best Picture nominees most likely saw it through a streaming service. That seems to be the case this year. The favorites were seen through a wide variety of streaming methods like Netflix, Hulu, Disney+ or Amazon Prime. For most, it was the only way to access any of the Best Picture nominees.

Normally I’d publish separate reviews of the various Best Picture nominees and include the link to the blog in my review. This was not the case that I reviewed them before Oscar day. Separate reviews will have to come later. In the meantime, here’s my take on the eight Best Picture nominees:

The Father: To make a film about dementia that’s watchable is a big challenge. Having a lead actor like Anthony Hopkins helps. However this is a unique story as it goes through the father’s life as he and his daughter are going through major changes in their lives. The father’s struggle with dementia gives hints to his past. It makes for a unique and telling story. However I don’t see it as having what it takes to win Best Picture.

Judas And The Black Messiah: This is the story of the Black Panther with a big following and the FBI agent who sets him up for his assassination. It’s to do about a powerful leader who had a love for his woman and the FBI who poses as the leader’s friend only to lead him to the fatal heist. This is an intriguing story that gives you a piece of history that is often overlooked. Also it provides insight on the secret that haunted the FBI agent until the end of his life. Excellent film worthy of Best Picture, but unable to contend due to the tightness of this year’s competition.

Mank: For those who like seeing films of the Golden Age of Hollywood, you’ll like seeing Mank. This is a film that focuses on Herman Mankiewicz, Hollywood scriptwriter and producer. It focuses on his messing with the political system, his difficulties in the Hollywood studio system and his struggle with alcohol. It presents a unique story for someone that should be presented as unlikeable as most of the Hollywood producers should be seen. This is a film with Best Picture marked on it, but a certain other film has better Best Picture clout.

Minari: There have been stories of immigrants in pursuit of the American Dream before. This is a unique story because it’s of Korean farmers seeking to pursue the American Dream in Arkansas in the 1980’s. It’s of a family that tries to pursue a better life, brings the grandmother over in hopes to build the family back up, and a son struggling with a heart condition. This is a very personal story from writer/director Lee Isaac Chung. It has Best Picture potential, but there are at least three other films that are seen as stronger contenders.

Nomadland: This is an introspective look at the modern-day American nomad. Desperation in an economy that failed them is what caused them to adopt this modern style of the nomad life. However it’s something that they don’t just simply get used to doing, but it becomes a lifestyle for all those involved. There is a central character named Fern who first appears she has no choice but to accept this nomad life. Even as things don’t get any better, she learns to make it her own life, embrace her experiences, and then be able to say goodbye to her own life. This is an excellent personal story that really caught a lot of people’s eyes. That’s why I make it my Will Win pick.

Promising Young Woman: This is definitely a film that’s been made with rage in mind. And good reason. When the #MeToo movement came out, it highlighted a lot of problems. This is a rape revenge film that focuses on a friend’s rape and the failings that went around her like the friend who wouldn’t believe, the college system that hides things for the protection of their reputation, the friend of the rapist who watched and did nothing. The film also focuses on the culture of misogyny that provokes date rape. Cassie is the central figure that first comes off like she is the one to put misogyny in its place and later tries to get revenge for her friend’s rape. I think it’s the Generation X-er in me that likes how this film is like a lightning rod on society. That’s why I call it my Should Win pick.

Sound Of Metal– This is a unique story of a drummer who goes deaf and doesn’t know how to struggle with hearing loss. His willingness to accept deafness and move on with his life or his desire for a hearing implant that will give him his old life back is the central part of the story. This is a very good story that relies on images and sounds to tell of the musician’s struggle and also of the new life he tries to get used to. Very good film. Also in a year where this year’s batch of Best Picture contenders have been commonly described as ‘a pack of downers,’ this is the most uplifting film without going too overboard in its uplifting moments.

Trial Of The Chicago 7: This is a historical film that comes at the right time. It was released at a time when there was, and still is, a lot of political turmoil in the United States. It’s about a group of men arrested and tried for taking a stand for what they believed in. It’s about a corrupt judge who constantly made the wrong decisions on others. It’s about a political system that’s all about keeping the order of things. Centrally it’s about a leader who needed to fasce his fears and muster the courage displayed by the others. Excellent retelling of a historical moment. Among one of the top contenders for the win, but this is the year for Nomadland.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Directors nominate the Best Director nominees. This Oscar category is known for its all-too-frequent exclusion of female nominees. The first was back in 1976: Lina Wertmuller for Seven Beauties. Since then, it’s been Jane Campion for The Piano in 1993, Sofia Coppola, daughter of Francis Ford Coppola, for Lost In Translation in 2003, Kathryn Bigelow in 2009 for The Hurt Locker (which she won), and before this year, the last was Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird back in 2017. Five female nominees before the 2020 nominees were announced. This year made Oscar history as the first year two women were nominated for Best Director: Chloe Zhao and Emerald Fennell. The two female directors have the most talked-about films of this Oscar season: Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. It looks as though Zhao is poised to become only the second female winner of the Best Director category.

Also who knows after this year? Maybe in the future, two or three female Best Director nominees will become the annual norm.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Most of us will remember Chadwick Boseman as T’Challa the Black Panther in the MCU. Since his death, there has been a lot of attention paid to a lot of his other works of the past. As 2020 was drawing to a close, the big focus was his performance as Levee Green in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In fact it’s his performance as Levee that steals the show from Ma. It makes it more the story about Levee’s own struggle for fame and fortune and his inner hurt and struggles. His portrayal of Levee Green cuts deep to the core. Giving him the Best Actor Oscar is the best way to remember him.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Boseman may have stolen the film as Levee Green, but Viola’s performance of Ma Rainey helped give this film its powerful 1-2 punch. Davis’ character is both that of an entertainer whose beloved and a person subject to the same hurt and harshness a black woman in America gets. As she cuts her record Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, you can tell the wrath she feels towards her lifetime and her struggles are present in the story. That’s why I feel Viola deserves the Best Actress Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah

This year’s Oscars had a surprise with two Supporting Actor nominations for Judas And The Black Messiah. The nomination for Kaluuya was not a surprise as he won the Golden Globe for supporting actor. The nomination for LaKeith Stanfield was a surprise as it was felt Stanfield played the lead as Bill O’Neal. That had a lot of people wondering who’s the lead if O’Neal is supporting? I can’t answer that question. I will say that Stanfield didn’t get a single lead acting win or nomination so the Supporting Actor campaign was very successful here. Nevertheless the film belongs to Kaluuya for his performance of the late Black Panther Fred Hampton. He was very good at portraying Hampton both as a rebel with a cause and as a man with a lot of love.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

Youn Yuh-jung is an actress with an illustrious career in South Korea. Minari is pretty much the film where she’s introduced to North America. And it’s a great performance as a grandmother who first exhibits over-the-top behavior to becoming closer with grandson David to struggling with life after a stroke. She helped make the grandmother the central character of the story and it’s because of this I feel she should win here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

For a long time, Emerald Fennell was just another struggling actress. Her biggest success is in the British television series Call The Midwife. She also had good roles in film such as in Anna Karenina, Pan and The Danish Girl. Her first attempt at directing and writing was in the short film Careful How You Go. Promising Young Woman is her first attempt at a feature-length film and boy is it an eyebrow raiser. There have been ‘rape revenge’ movies before, but this is a film that doesn’t just get revenge on the rapist. It’s a story of one who has a reckoning of all those involved in her best friend’s rape like the friend that didn’t believe her, the college administration ‘protecting the boys’ futures,’ the lawyer who was menacing to the victim upon his client’s command, and the friend of the rapist who just watched and stood by. This is an angry film, but well written and well thought-out. Fennell’s feature went the furthest this year.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

For those that read Jessica Bruder’s book Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century, one would know it’s not a novel. It’s a set of stories of people that are modern-day nomads in America. Zhao was able to create a story of a fictional woman coming from an actual economic setback. She makes a nomad of herself because of the desperate times she was going through and of the people she meets along the way. It has a beginning, middle and end and it’s a story that is a reflection of life. That’s why Nomadland has to be the winner here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Soul

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win and Will Win: Eric Messerschmidt – Mank

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Ann Roth – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen – Sound Of Metal

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste – Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “Speak Now” – One Week In Miami

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Donald Graham Burt & Jan Pascale – Mank

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Sound Of Metal

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: The Midnight Sky

SHORT FILM PREDICTIONS

For my reviews of the nominees and predictions for the wins for the various shorts categories, just click here for Animation and Live-Action and here for Documentaries.

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the six upsets I anticipate are most likely to happen. In category order:

  • Carey Mulligan for Best Actress in Promising Young Woman
  • Maria Balakova for Best Supporting Actress in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Lee Isaac Chung for Best Original Screenplay for Minari
  • Joshua James Richards for Best Cinematography for Nomadland
  • Time for Best Documentary
  • Tenet for Best Visual Effects

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the winners of the 93rd Academy Awards. The Oscars ceremony promises to be like a film. We’ll have to wait and see!

My Predictions for the 2020 Golden Globes

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The Golden Globes are happening unusually late in the year. Keep in mind 2020 was no ordinary year. It either cancelled everything out or held it up. What can I say? A pandemic can do that. The pandemic has caused a lot more films intended for big-screen release go to the small screen. Even those with huge big-screen releases intended had to have a limited big-screen release with it then relegated to streaming services. That in turn led to the Academy to be more forgiving towards online films this past year. This in turn will make all the other awards shows, including the Golden Globes, more forgiving to the films. Nevertheless the show must go on and February 28th it will!

The weird thing is I’ve only seen two of the films in contention for the Golden Globes. You gotta love quarantines and lockdowns. But you also gotta love streaming services too! Anyways here are my predictions:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Nomadland
Most Likely Upsetter: Promising Young Woman

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Most Likely Upsetter: Hamilton

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Riz Ahmed, Sound Of Metal
Most Likely Upsetter: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Most Likely Upsetter: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Most Likely Upsetter: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Maria Balakova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Most Likely Upsetter: Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Leslie Odom Jr., One Night In Miami
Most Likely Upsetter: Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial Of The Chicago Seven

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Most Likely Upsetter: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Best Director
Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Most Likely Upsetter: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Most Likely Upsetter: Chloe Zhao and Jessica Bruder, Nomadland

Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: Another Round (Denmark)
Most Likely Upsetter: La Llorona (Guatemala)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Soul
Most Likely Upsetter: Wolfwalkers

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Io Se (Seen)”, The Life Ahead
Most Likely Upsetter: “Speak Now”, One Night In Miami

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Trent Reznor, Jon Batiste and Atticus Ross, Soul
Most Likely Upsetter: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. So my predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: Small Axe

Best TV Series, Drama: The Mandalorian

Best TV Series, Comedy: Schitt’s Creek

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Jason Bateman, Ozark

Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Ramy Youssef, Ramy

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Olivia Colman, The Crown

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: John Boyega, Small Axe

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Julia Garner, Ozark

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 78th Golden Globe awards. Winners to be decided on Sunday evening. It would not only be interesting to see who wins, but how the show is conducted in these preventative circumstances. Anyways a pandemic won’t stop the fun. It may limit things, but it won’t stop the fun!

My Predictions For the 2019 Academy Awards

Jon The Blogcentric

Chocolate Oscar

It’s interesting that this year’s Oscars are being held the second Sunday of February. Usually they’re held the last Sunday or the first Sunday of March in a Winter Olympic year. It was pretty evident will all my cramming of my Best Picture reviews. I didn’t start until three weeks to go and I didn’t think I could review all nine in time. But I did! The last of the Best Picture reviews I posted on Wednesday. Next year they’ll be going back to the last Sunday of February. So hopefully reviewing them all will be a lot more relaxed.

Anyways I’m able to make predictions for this year’s Oscars. I’m even able to make some calls for what should win in some categories. I’ve seen enough films to make up 96 of the 124 nominations. They range from single-nomination films like Knives Out to Joker with the most nominations with eleven in total. Most categories have been very predictable with the same film or same effort winning film award after film award. That could help me with my Oscar bingo I’ll be playing once again this Sunday! However there are a few that appear unpredictable. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2019 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Oscar nominees

All credit to Olly Gibbs for that excellent image of this year’s nominees. This year has a wide range of film among the nine nominees. Two are set during World Wars. Two are written and directed by a Hollywood couple. Four have had a domestic gross at the box office of over $100 million. Two are films that got moved to NetFlix after an initial box-office release. One is done by a master of gangster movies and another is done by his heir apparent, but not a gangster movie at all. One is a modern-day adaptation of a classic novel. One is a fictional account of a cartoon villain. One is of car racing. One is of a failing marriage. One if of classic Hollywood. One is of Hitler through a child’s eyes. One is a possible answer to a popular whodunit. One is of a journey during war. And one is of an impoverished family trying to break free. All are seen worthy of being nominated in the Best Picture category this year. So here is my rundown of the Best Picture nominees:

1917 – War movies usually win the Academy over, as long as they’re done well. This has been the darling of most awards shows. I predict this as my Will Win pick. I myself admire it for its cinematography and it’s storytelling, but it’s not the film I most want to win Best Picture. Usually for Best Picture, I feel it should have much of the best of the year in the three top categories: acting, directing and writing.

Ford v Ferrari – Very rarely do auto racing movies get nominated for Best Picture. This is more than an auto racing film. It’s about those that were behind the big moment and the family relation of the racer who was shunned behind. Definitely a crowd-pleaser, but it doesn’t look like an Academy-pleaser.

The Irishman – What can I say? This is the film in which I most want to win because this is a film that went above and beyond what I expected out of it. I admire films that go above and beyond what I expect. Plus it had top-notch acting, directing and writing. However it lost a lot of its energy it had back in November. That’s why I think it won’t win.

Jojo Rabbit – This is one movie that would normally not be Best Picture material. I have to say of all nine Best Picture nominees, this is my favorite. This is the most entertaining of the nine. However I know how to separate my personal favorite from the films I feel are the best. Besides I know how stodgy the Academy is towards comedies.

Joker – Last year was something how a superhero movie finally got a Best Picture nomination. This year is a case of a story of the genesis of a villain won crowds and won movie awards. This is an impressive story too. However I feel that it faces stiff competition in the Best Picture race from other films.

Little Women – To think this is the first Little Women adaptation to be nominated for Best Picture! I can’t complain at all as the film took some different twists and it came out a winning story. I admire the way it was directed, written and acted, but there are films that have more boost in this competition.

Marriage Story – Sometimes all it takes to win people is a story that connects with people. That’s the magic of Marriage Story. This film’s best qualities are the acting and writing. However this is another film that appears prone to fall under the weight of bigger competition. Plus this being on NetFlix may be an additional reason why its chances were hurt.

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood – This is one salute to the Golden Age of Hollywood with a twist. Also it will cause a lot of people to reassess their definition of what a Quentin Tarantino movie is. I know my parents still think Tarantino movies are all ‘blood and guts’ but this film shows a side of Quentin most people overlook. I do rank this as a film in the Top 3 most expected to win, but it’s not my top pick. I think its summer release may have caused it to lose much of its buzz.

Parasite – This is definitely the foreign-language film of the year. Undisputed! This is my Should Win pick because this film has accomplished more than any of the other nine Best Picture nominees. It’s a case once again that the best film of the year is not in the English-language. However I’m very doubtful it will win. I remember last year Roma was the best film but it lost out to Green Book. That solidified my belief the Academy will never make a foreign-language film a Best Picture winner.

I know a lot of people often think the Academy Awards are a case of Hollywood patting itself on the back. One can say an excellent example of this was last year when Roma lost Best Picture to Green Book. If Once Upon A Time In Hollywood wins this, then it will further prove their point. I am very doubtful Parasite will win. However if 1917 wins, it won’t look like Hollywood patting itself on the back because it’s a British film!

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Will Win: Sam Mendes – 1917

I chose Bong Joon-ho naturally. Most people feel the common belief that The winner for Best Director should be the director of the Best Picture winner. It happens over 70% of the time at the Oscars. As a result my Best Director pick for Should Win is from the same film as my Should Win for Best Picture. I feel it’s right since Parasite is the film I admire most and it’s Bong who made it happen. I feel it will go to Sam Mendes because of his past awards success this year. Nevertheless I would not be disappointed if it did because 1917 is a film that’s worth admiring.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

What can I say? It’s not just about being widely praised as the acting performance of the year but of the movie role of the year. Nobody — not even the most loyal of Batman fans — expected Joker to be the film that it is. It’s a film that not only tells the story of the emergence of the Joker, the chaos of Gotham City and the genesis of Batman, but it takes one into the mind of Arthur Fleck. One knew that Arthur would snap any minute. What can I say? One could argue that it’s Joaquin that single-handedly made the work!

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Renee Zellweger – Judy

I never reviewed Judy in my blog after I saw it back in November. It’s an excellent story of a period in the last year of Judy Garland’s life. It focuses on her attempt for a comeback and how it appeared showbiz took everything out of her. It also flashed back to her childhood and how she was raised to think that a normal life that the other girls were having is for mortals. Renee was excellent in embodying Judy as she looked like a person who just couldn’t come to terms with herself and even feared what she would mostly be remembered for. Renee was spot on in epitomizing Judy from the voice, to the singing to the hostile attitude to the troubled personality to even writing left-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Will Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

One thing about this year’s acting nominees. A lot of people talked about the lack of racial diversity. That is true, and I even reminded people in social media of Spielberg saying the Academy is like a member-only club.

As for actors, another lack of diversity is that only six nominations went to performances from five actors who were never nominated before. For Supporting Actor, this is normally a ‘newbie-friendly’ category but all five have been nominated before in the past and only Brad Pitt has never won an Oscar. That appears likely to change as he is the heavy favorite to win for his scene-stealing in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. Actually Brad has enough screen time to qualify for the Best LEAD Actor category! However I would be likely to go with Joe Pesci for his portrayal as a mob boss who appears like a father figure. Nevertheless Sunday will be Brad’s moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Some performances nominated for Supporting Actor/Actress are usually lead roles that are ‘politicked’ as supporting roles, like I I mentioned about Brad Pitt earlier. Some supporting acting nominations and wins are because they’re good at stealing the show from the lead actors. And some nominations and wins in the supporting acting categories can also be because they do an excellent job of character acting. That’s why I have no problem with Laura Dern winning. She made you hate Nora! She did an excellent job as the manipulative sly-talking lawyer and she made her character of Nora almost look like she was a snake!  Actors are taught about even using animal-like behaviors to enhance characters. This award is Laura’s for the taking. And on the day before her 53rd birthday to boot!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Boon Jong-ho – Parasite

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

If there’s one major category that I feel will be the hardest to predict, it’s actually both screenplay categories. Lately some of the award shows have given alternating views on who they think is the best. I agree with what Bong Joon-ho said in his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes: “Once you overcome the one-inch-tall barrier of subtitles, you’ll be introduced to so many more amazing films.” I agree, but I doubt if the Academy agrees. Roma may have won last year, but I don’t think they’ll make it two in a row.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Steve Zaillian – The Irishman

Will Win: Greta Gerwig – Little Women

It’s interesting that Greta and her common-law partner Noah Baumbach are both nominated for screenplays this year. I had to go with The Irishman on this one because it’s a complex story that Zaillian is able to make work. I think they will give it to Great for putting a new twist to a story that’s been adapted numerous times. I think the biggest upset could come from Jojo Rabbit, but I’m still set on Little Women.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Toy Story 4

This year I did not see any of the nominated films. I only saw three animated films and none of them got nominated here. Even though Klaus won the Annie Award and the BAFTA, I have a feeling Disney is going to take it again. This is the one category Disney wants to win most. wouldn’t that be something if Toy Story 4 loses to a NetFlix film?

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Should Win and Will Win: Parasite (South Korea)

For those wondering, this is a new title for the category that used to be called Best Foreign Language Film. This year I saw four of the five nominees in this category, which is extremely rare for me. The others I saw are Pain And Glory, Honeyland and Corpus Christi. That means I can also make a ‘should win’ judgement in this category. It’s safe to say Parasite is the foreign-language film of the year. Also Honeyland makes history as the first documentary to be nominated in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Roger Deakins – 1917

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Jacqueline Durran – Little Women

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Honeyland

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Yang Jin-mo – Parasite

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker – Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – Rocketman

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: 1917

SHORT FILM PREDICTIONS

For my reviews of the nominees and predictions of the wins for Best Animated Short Film, Best Live-Action Short Film and Best Documentary Short Subject, click on this paragraph.

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the five upsets I anticipate are most likely to happen. In category order:

  • Taika Waititi for Best Adapted Screenplay for Jojo Rabbit
  • Klaus for Best Animated Feature
  • Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland for Best Film Editing for Ford v Ferrari
  • American Factory for Best Documentary Feature
  • The Lion King for Best Visual Effects

And there you go. My predictions for the winners, and possible upsetters of the 92nd Academy Awards. Having a hostless Oscars last year was such a success, they did it again this year. Will it be as entertaining? Will there be some shock winners like Olivia Colman was last year? It will all be decided Sunday night.

Oscars 2019 Best Picture Review: Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Jon The Blogcentric2 Comments

Once Upon A Time
Leonardo di Caprio (right) plays a legendary movie star and Brad Pitt (left) plays his stunt-double best friend in the surprising Once Upon A Time In Hollywood.

Normally when one hears of another Quentin Tarantino film, some will look forward to it while others will think “Not more blood and guts!” Even when I heard Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was about the Manson murders, I too was expecting that and killers with no mercy and no regrets. Instead I got more than I thought. And you will too.

It’s interesting that this is a fictional story of a friendship taking place around a real murder that happened. We have a movie star whose heyday seems to be fading just like Hollywood’s Golden Era. Rick Dalton was part of that Golden Era too. If there’s one person that doesn’t leave Rick, it’s his best friend Cliff. Even Cliff has trouble finding work because of what he’s rumored to have committed. Not to mention getting fired for having Bruce Lee injured in a sparring competition on set. Also this happens around the time of the Manson murders. Some could argue that Hollywood’s Golden Era ended with the Manson murders. Others like Tarantino could argue it ended before.

On the subject of the murders, the film does a good job in presenting the Manson family as people that were brainwashed into being evil. It does seem that Manson created a cult of followers to carry out his evil deeds and were every bit as blood-thirsty as him. One thing we should remember is that the murders took place at the former home of record producer Terry Melcher. Charles Manson first came to California with the dreams of becoming a musician. He was first approached by Beach Boy Dennis Wilson who introduced him to Melcher. Melcher was the producer who took one of Manson’s songs and rearranged it for the Beach Boys. No doubt Manson was furious and that’s why he wanted blood. I always wondered why did they kill anyone in Melcher’s house? Why didn’t they save their attack on Melcher and Melcher alone? I always wondered that. However that scene where the girl from the Manson family talks how she wants blood and doesn’t care answers that question for me. It’s obvious they were blood-thirsty and they didn’t care if Melcher was no longer there. As far as they were concerned, the five at the house were worthy of being killed just by being there.

One thing people frequently think of when they hear of a ‘Tarantino Movie’ is ‘blood and guts.’ Tarantino has developed a reputation for that, and for ruthless merciless villains with no regrets. There wasn’t as much of that here in the film, but there were a lot of scenes which would make one nervous. The biggest of which was when Cliff visits Spahn Ranch just to simply drop off a girl who goes by the name Pussycat. Also that scene when Booth walks into Spahn’s house. Those scenes will make anyone nervous, especially those that know the story behind the Manson murders.

What a lot of people overlook in a Tarantino film is that Tarantino has a love for film as a whole. Many of his latest works, if you look closer, have a style of cinema mixed into his story. The two Kill Bills, Inglourious Basterds, Jackie Brown and the Deathproof part of Grindhouse show Tarantino paying tribute to cinema genres of decades past. The style can be a film noir style, or a cult move style from decades past or a spaghetti western style or even an Asian style. Just look closer. However he does his story, even his most brutal and bloodiest stories, with a style of film genre mixed in. Here, it’s obvious this film is about his passion for the old Hollywood: the Hollywood that was one glorious city. That was Hollywood before the Manson murders. However you can still see how Tarantino shows Hollywood in possibly the last of its golden age in this film. Tarantino himself talks about growing up as a child in Hollywood in the 60’s and being mesmerized by its charm. I think that’s what he’s trying to incorporate in this film.

I know I mentioned that Tarantino’s films are known for have ruthless, merciless villains and that you should not expect to see sentimentality in a Tarantino film. In fact I’ve sometimes joked that the ending of the Hateful Eight is the most sentimentality you’ll get out of a Tarantino film. Of course even in this film,  there will be some type of merciless bloodshed. We’re talking Quentin Tarantino! Despite the ending being as brutal as you’d expect of a Tarantino film,  there are some moments of feeling in the film. There’s that scene where Dalton is between shoots of Lancer and is sitting near his eight year-old co-star Trudi Fraser. He breaks down because he can’t remember his lines, but Trudi gives words of encouragement, which gives him the drive to deliver an excellent performance. I’ll admit I was not expecting that. Another thing I was not expecting in a Tarantino film was the depiction of Sharon Tate. There’s that scene where Sharon goes into the movie theatre to watch herself in The Wrecking Crew, a screening which Booth is attending too. She’s thrilled to see her face on the screen. She’s also happy to see the audience loves how she’s making a klutz of herself on screen. That scene of an actress and her dreams. That shows another side of Tarantino few knew.

SPOILER ALERT: Ending Revealed In This Paragraph. Now there was a lot of concern about the making of the film. The Tate family was especially concerned about Sharon’s murder being exploited. One can understand. Her murder has already been exploited enough with people’s intrigue of the Manson murders. Instead the murder doesn’t happen at all. For those that didn’t notice, the film also leaves out the marital troubles of Sharon and Roman Polanski as well as the fact Sharon was pregnant at the time of her murder. This story is more about the friendship of a fading Hollywood legend and his stuntman double who stays with him through think and thin. It takes place during the time of the Manson murders, but there’s a twist of plot which both Cliff and Rick are involved. In short, we don’t get what really happened in the film. This is another case where Tarantino plays around with history just like he did with Inglourious Basterds and with Django Unchained. Instead he gives us the history that we want. And right at the end, we see Rick go to Sharon Tate’s party. Sharon and her friends are happy and safe from harm, and you leave the theatre satisfied knowing that’s how it should be.

Quentin Tarantino does it again. I have to say this is the least blood and guts I’ve seen in a Tarantino film. Mind you this is is less about blood and guts than it is about a unique transition in Hollywood. It’s Golden Days were fading and Hollywood was going in a new path. Many major movie stars saw television as a domain of wash-ups back then. However Tarantino reminds you of a charm of Hollywood that didn’t leave, but just changed for a new era. It’s not the same, but it’s a charm all its own. As I mentioned previously, we’ve seen Tarantino incorporate many different past style of films when he tells his stories. He doesn’t just simply tell a story, he adds an atmosphere and a feel to his films. We see it here again as we get various feelings through various scenes.

Top acting credits have to go to Brad Pitt. Funny how he’s nominated for the Supporting acting category for the Oscars while Leo is nominated in Lead. The film does belong to Cliff Booth as it is mostly his story. He’s the friend of Rick’s through thick and thin, he’s the stuntman who has trouble finding a job, but he’s the right person when trouble arises near his house and has what it takes to stop it. Brad does an excellent job of creating the character of Booth and owning the film. Leonardo di Caprio was also excellent as a fading movie star. The role of Rick Dalton reminds you that behind the glamor of movie stars, they still faced difficulties such as pushy producers, demanding directors and an industry that considers even the most legendary actors disposable. Yes, even back then, the powers that be in Hollywood still believed an actor was only as good as their last opening weekend. Leo was good at showing the insecurities of Rick, but ending on a positive uplifting note. Leo’s performance as Rick was just as arresting as Brad’s performance as Cliff and the chemistry between the two were excellent.

It wasn’t just Brad and Leo that made the film. There was Margot Robbie who gave a 3D performance as Sharon Tate. She did a great job of showing Sharon as a girl with big dreams and big hopes. There’s also Mike Moh’s performance as Bruce Lee. Note that the Lee family were angered how Bruce was made to look egotistical. However Quentin stands by his claims. There’s the performance of Julia Butters as Trudi Fraser. She’s in the film for one brief scene, but she steals it. The actors who portrayed members of the Manson family were also good as a team. The film also has a lot of great technical efforts like Robert Richardson in cinematography, Arianne Phillips in costume design, and the production design team in setting up the various sets. The film also shows another Tarantino film trademark: excellent music. The film had to have excellent songs from that era to fit the film. Tarantino delivers an excellent selection of songs from the late-1960’s that fit the movie perfectly.

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is less about Tarantino’s blood lust than it is about his love for cinema and the days of Hollywood’s Golden Age. It also ends unlike any Tarantino film before. Which is what makes this film so unique and worth seeing.

My Predictions For The 2019 Golden Globes

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Golden Globe

This year’s awards calendar has events happening sooner than usual. The Oscars are happening February 9th, which is two or three weeks sooner than expected. Not this coming Monday, but the Monday after will announce the Oscar nominees. This year the Golden Globes are having their winners decided while most of us are still on holidays! Nevertheless it is a good time to focus on what the winners are and who the heavy favorites for the Oscars might be.

Once again, I will make my predictions for the winners with the ‘Most Likely Upsetter’ prediction reserved strictly for the film categories. So here we go:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: The Irishman
Most Likely Upsetter: 1917

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Most Likely Upsetter: JoJo Rabbit

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Most Likely Upsetter: Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Most Likely Upsetter: Taron Egerton, Rocketman

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Scarlet Johannson, Marriage Story
Most Likely Upsetter: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Awkwafina, The Farewell
Most Likely Upsetter: Cate Blanchette, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Most Likely Upsetter: Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Most Likely Upsetter: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Best Director
Winner: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Most Likely Upsetter: Boon Jong-ho, Parasite

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Boon Jong-ho & Han Ji-won, Parasite
Most Likely Upsetter:Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: Parasite (South Korea)
Most Likely Upsetter: The Farewell (U.S.A.)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: How To Train Your Dragon: Homecoming
Most Likely Upsetter: The Missing Link

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”, Rocketman
Most Likely Upsetter: “Stand Up”, Harriet

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Hildur Gudnadottir, Joker
Most Likely Upsetter: Randy Newman, Marriage Story

Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. So my predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: Chernobyl

Best TV Series, Drama: The Crown

Best TV Series, Comedy: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Bill Porter, Pose

Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Bill Hader, Barry

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Jodie Comer, Killing Eve

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Jared Harris, Chernobyl

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Andrew Scott, Fleabag

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Emily Watson, Chernobyl

 

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the Golden Globes. Some may appear to be locks but anything can happen Sunday night. Ricky Gervais is hosting so we’ll see who wins.

Screen Actors Guild Awards Will Hold Their 25th

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220px-screen_actors_guild_award_trophy
The Actor: the award given out at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAGs.

Normally I don’t post predictions or reviews about the Screen Actors Guild awards, but this is a milestone year for the Awards and they’ve proved their impact on the Oscar race over time.

SAGs And Their History In A Nutshell

One of the things about most of the categories in the Oscar race is that many of them have a corresponding society, union or guild to go with them. The Screen Actors Guild was founded in 1933. There’s no records of the SAG giving out any awards before 1995, even honorary awards, however there have been guilds and unions that have held their awards in the past and would also have an impact on the Oscar race. Below is a list of awards ceremonies from guilds, societies and unions that began before the SAG Awards. They’re listed by awards name, the Oscar category impacted in brackets, and the year the awards began:

  • Producers Guild Of America Awards (Best Picture, Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary) – 1990 (2005 for animated, 2007 for documentary)
  • Directors Guild of America Awards (Best Director) – 1948
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (Best Original and Adapted Screenplay) – 1949
  • Annie Awards (Best Animated Feature) – 1992
  • American Society of Cinematographers Awards (Best Cinematography) – 1986
  • American Cinema Editors ‘Eddie’ Awards (Best Film Editing) – 1962
  • Cinema Audio Society (Best Sound Mixing) – 1993
  • Motion Picture Sound Editors ‘Golden Reel’ Awards (Best Sound Editing) – 1989

Sure, there would be other guild awards that would come later for costuming, production design and visual effects, but the SAG Awards were already a long-time coming.

The nominees for the SAG awards are decided from a select group of 2000 of the film branch for the film awards and a select 2000 of the television branch for the television awards. For deciding the winners of the awards, all 140,000 members of the SAG-AFTRA union– even D-listers and the dime-a-dozen types– can vote for the winners!

The First SAGs

forrest gump
Tom Hanks’ performance in Forrest Gump won Best Actor at the very first SAG Awards.

The very first SAG awards were held in Universal Studios and broadcast on NBC. The statuette was called ‘the Actor’ and has been called that ever since. The first film awards honored the best acting and included a Lifetime Achievement Award. The very first went to George Burns. That was admirable because he’d die the following year at the age of 100.

The very first SAG awards would show that these awards would either have a huge impact on the upcoming Oscars or they’d be very similar in the tastes of the Academy. Three of the four individual winners in film– Tom Hanks, Dianne Wiest and Martin Landau– would go on to win the Oscar that year. Only Jodie Foster’s performance in Nell would be the only SAG win that would not win the Oscar. The SAG awards for the television awards however would not be as reflective as the Golden Globe winners or Emmy winners seven months later. In fact, they just have single-acting categories instead of separate categories for lead actors and supporting actors.

apollo 13
Apollo 13 was the first film whose ensemble won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture.

There was one unique thing about the SAG Awards categories. As you know, the Oscars have the Best Picture Award, the Emmies have their two Best Series awards, and the Golden Globes have both Best Picture awards for movies and Best Series awards for television. Since the awards are about the actors, the SAG Awards have Best Acting Ensemble awards. The first SAGs had two awards for the best television ensembles but no award for film ensembles. The first Best Ensemble award for film would come at the following SAG Awards, which went to the ensemble of Apollo 13.

Over the years, the SAG awards have become a who’s-who event for Hollywood’s big names to show up. They’re now broadcast on TNT and TBS. The Oscars will always have the most prestige and always be the status symbol of Hollywood, but the SAGs have grown in significance and also say a lot about how much an actor has achieved in their career. The SAGs have also been seen as the biggest forecaster for who will win the Oscar over time. In fact in the past ten years, 34 of the last 40 winners of the acting categories at the SAGs would go on to win the Oscar in that very category. That’s an 85% success rate. The SAGs almost matching the Oscars do however make for a boring Oscar race for predictors and ‘Oscar nerds’ like me who wager their predictions in contests. Also since the inception of the Ensemble Award for film, the Film winner for the Best Ensemble award would go to the ensemble of the Oscar-winner for Best Picture eleven out of 23 times. Only twice has the Oscar for Best Picture gone to a film whose ensemble was not nominated for the Best Ensemble award: Braveheart and The Shape Of Water. Also in 2007, the SAGs introduced a category for Best Stunt Ensemble. Even though there is a World Stunt Awards, the SAGs decided to give its own accolade.

Predictions For This Year

This is actually my first year predicting for the SAGs. I think I will only do so this year since it’s a milestone year. So here goes for the film categories:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

Winner: A Star Is Born

Most Likely Upsetter: Black Panther

Best Actor

Winner: Christian Bale – Vice

Most Likely Upsetter: Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Best Actress

Winner: Glenn Close – The Wife

Most Likely Upsetter: Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Most Likely Upsetter: Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actress

Winner: Amy Adams – Vice

Most Likely Upsetter: Emma Stone – The Favourite

Best Stunt Ensemble

Winner: Avengers: Infinity War

Most Likely Upsetter: Black Panther

For television nominees, I will just predict the anticipated winner rather than add in a prediction for the upsetter:

Best Actor – Miniseries or TV Movie: Darren Criss – The Assassination of Versace: An American Crime Story

Best Actress – Miniseries or TV Movie: Patricia Arquette – Escape At Dannemora

Best Actor – Drama Series: Jason Bateman – Ozark

Best Actress – Drama Series: Sandra Oh – Killing Eve

Best Actor – Comedy Series: Bill Hader – Barry

Best Actress – Comedy Series: Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Ensemble – Drama Series: The Americans

Best Ensemble – Comedy Series: The Kominsky Method

Best Stunt Ensemble – Television Series: Marvel’s Daredevil

And there you have it. My review of the SAG Awards and my predictions for this year’s awards. Tune in tomorrow to find out who wins!

 

 

 

 

Golden Globes 2018: My Predictions

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Golden Globe

This year’s Golden Globes will be hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh. I’ll admit it’s awfully late for me to post my Golden Globe predictions, but I have been lacking the drive this holiday season. A late-minute alerting made me get myself into action. To start things off, here are my predictions for both the winners and their respective most likely upsetters in the film categories:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: BlacKkKlansman

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: The Favourite
Most Likely Upsetter: Green Book

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Christian Bale, Vice
Most Likely Upsetter: Viggo Mortenson, Green Book

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Most Likely Upsetter: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Most Likely Upsetter: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Amy Adams, Vice
Most Likely Upsetter: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Director
Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Most Likely Upsetter: Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Most Likely Upsetter: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly & Vanessa Taylor, Green Book

Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: Roma (Mexico)
Most Likely Upsetter: Shoplifters (Japan)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: SpiderMan: Into The Spiderverse
Most Likely Upsetter: The Incredibles 2

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Shallow”, A Star Is Born
Most Likely Upsetter: “All The Stars”, Black Panther

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Most Likely Upsetter: Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place

Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. Especially since this year’s crop of nominees come mostly from new shows for this season. So my predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: American Crime Story: The Assassination Of Versace

Best TV Series, Drama: The Americans

Best TV Series, Comedy: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Bill Hader, Barry

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Darren Criss, American Crime Story: The Assassination Of Versace

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Regina King, Seven Seconds

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Henry Winkler, Barry

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Thandie Newton,  Westworld

And there you go. Those are my predictions for tonight’s Golden Globe awards. Winners to be revealed starting 8pm EST. That’s less than an hour!

Golden Globes Turn 75: And My Predictions

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Golden Globe
Ever since the Golden Globes were introduced in 1944, they’ve become one of the most prestigious awards on the entertainment circuit. Only the Oscar or the Emmy are more coveted.

Today will be the awarding of the Golden Globes. This year isn’t just any Golden Globes, but the 75th to take place.

A Very Brief History

Some of you may wonder how did the Golden Globes come to be? Firstly, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was founded in 1943 by Los Angeles-based journalists to give a more organized process of distributing cinema news to markets outside the U.S. The following year, they formed their own film awards, the Golden Globes, to give their opinions of who are the best of the year. While the AMPAS Academy consists primarily of professionals in their respective film field, the Golden Globes would be the decisions of these journalists.

The very first Golden Globes held back in 1944 consisted of six categories: Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting categories. Their decisions for the winners would be three for six with the Oscar winners. The Song Of Bernadette was chosen as the Best Picture winner while the Oscars went for Casablanca. Same thing with Best Director; Globes chose Bernadette director Henry King while the Academy favored Casablanca director Michael Curtiz. The acting categories almost completely matched each other as Globe-winners Paul Lukas, Jennifer Jones and Katina Paxinou would also win the Oscars later. Only Supporting Actor winner Akim Tamiroff from For Whom The Bell Tolls wouldn’t win an Oscar, despite being nominated.

Over the years, the Golden Globes would grow in popularity as their matches would be very close to that of the Oscars. They would also include cinematography categories temporarily and even a Best New Star category, which would be retired after the 1983 awards. The eighth Golden Globes would see the Awards giving separate awards for Best Picture and lead acting in both drama and comedy or musical. Something that still continues today. The Golden Globes would start to include awards to television starting in 1955: six years after the Emmy awards were created.

The Golden Globes would eventually become the second-most coveted film or television awards with only the Oscars or the Emmies being more coveted. It’s not to say it hasn’t been without its controversies, and not just because of hosting done by the likes of Rickyy Gervais et al. The make up of the Hollywood Foreign Press is often under question for their qualifications. Also their tendency to favor glitz and glamor at times have made people wonder at their choices. Even how in cases where one actress who did an interview for the HFP would later receive an award would get some people wondering. There was even suspicion at the 1981 Awards when Pia Zadora won Best New Star for her performance in Butterfly. Some claim that Meshulem Riklis, her millionaire husband at the time, paid the HFP to have her win. However nothing has been proven. Also it goes to show that there’s no such thing as an impartial judging body for any awards show. The Oscars and the Golden Globes are no exceptions to that. Nevertheless they still remain the most coveted.

And My Predictions For This Year

This year’s Golden Globes will be hosted by Seth Meyers. Some are saying he can be as controversial as Ricky Gervais tonight. This year’s Globes have fourteen categories for film and eleven categories for television. To start things off, here are my predictions for both the winners and their respective most likely upsetters in the film categories:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Dunkirk
Most Likely Upsetter: Call Me By Your Name

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Get Out

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Most Likely Upsetter: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Most Likely Upsetter: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most Likely Upsetter: Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Most Likely Upsetter: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Most Likely Upsetter: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Director
Winner: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water
Most Likely Upsetter: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape Of Water

Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: The Square (Sweden)
Most Likely Upsetter: Loveless (Russia)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Coco
Most Likely Upsetter: Loving Vincent

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Remember Me”, Coco
Most Likely Upsetter: “Mighty River”, Mudbound

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Most Likely Upsetter: John Williams, The Post

Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. So my predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: Big Little Lies

Best TV Series, Drama: The Handmaid’s Tale

Best TV Series, Comedy: Black-ish

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Aziz Ansari, Master Of None

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Pamela Adlon, Better Things

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Robert De Niro, The Wizard Of Lies

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Laura Dern,  Big Little Lies

And there you go. Those are my predictions for tonight’s Golden Globe awards. Winners to be revealed starting 8pm EST.

My 2015 Golden Globe Predictions

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Cinema

Hi all. With the Golden Globes coming this Sunday night, it is the time where I make my predictions for the winners. For this, I not only predict the Winner but also the Most Likely Upsetter who could pull the biggest surprise. So without further ado:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Spotlight
Most Likely Upsetter: The Revenant

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: The Martian
Most Likely Upsetter: The Big Short

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Leonardo diCaprio, The Revenant
Most Likely Upsetter: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Matt Damon, The Martian
Most Likely Upsetter: Christian Bale, The Big Short

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Cate Blanchett, Carol
Most Likely Upsetter: Brie Larson, Room

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Most Likely Upsetter: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Mark Rylance, Bridge Of Spies
Most Likely Upsetter: Idris Elba, Beasts Of No Nation

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Most Likely Upsetter: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Director
Winner: Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
Most Likely Upsetter: Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
Most Likely Upsetter: Adam McKay, The Big Short

Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: Son Of Saul (Hungary)
Most Likely Upsetter: The Brand New Testament (Belgium)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Inside Out
Most Likely Upsetter: Anomalisa

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “See You Again”, Furious 7
Most Likely Upsetter: “One Kind Of Love”, Love & Mercy

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Carter Burwell, Carol
Most Likely Upsetter: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

Okay, so I decided not to give a Most Likely Upsetter prediction for the television categories. Hey what can I say? I’m better at predicting the movie awards. Plus with a lot of categories appearing radically different from last year, it makes it all the much harder. So here are my TV predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: American Horror Story Hotel

Best TV Series, Drama: Game of Thrones

Best TV Series, Comedy: Veep

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Best Actor, TV Series Comedy: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Gina Rodriguez, Jane The Virgin

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Queen Latifah, Bessie

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Regina King, American Crime

And there you go. Those are my predictions for Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards. I don’t think I’ll completely be in sync with the Hollywood Foreign Press but anyways tune in to see the winners and the show.