Brutalist

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

Oscars 2024 Best Picture Reviews: Part One

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

Ten is not a set number for the number of Best Pictures nominees. Nevertheless it’s still nice to have ten as the total of nominees.

This year, there are a wide variety of films nominated from science fiction to two musicals to a musicography to a dark comedy to a horror movie to many types of dramas. Here  are my first two reviews of the Best Pictures nominees:

Anora

This is quite the unexpected comedy that delivers an unexpected sad ending. A sad ending was anticipated but the sad ending we got was not the one anticipated. It seems odd to have a story about a stripper/hooker marrying a rich kid to be one of the best films of the year but Sean Baker has developed a reputation for directing films about people in the sex trade. This is quite the story itself. We have a stripper who plays a ‘love kitten’ day after day for lusting men, but craves real love. We have a billionaire’s son who’s too spoiled, immature and careless to get it about life and love. He thinks marrying Anora is easy like that and he can live the same irresponsible life again, but he has a lot to learn. We have Igor, the henchman hired by the Zacharovs to have the marriage annulled, but Igor becomes the first person to see Anora as a human being throughout this whole ordeal. We also have the Zacharovs who are so obsessed with their money and power, they think they can do whatever they want. This is the kind of story that brings a lot to the table to talk about.

It’s hard to pinpoint the exact theme of the story because there’s so many topics and themes this story presents a point about. One could be the theme of sex workers. As I mentioned, Baker’s films often deal with sex workers. Here we see the case of a sex worker who is treated like a piece of meat and there are times her true feelings are shown. There are moments we stop seeing Anora as ‘this thing’ and start seeing her as a person. There’s also the case of wealth and privilege. Not only do we see wealthy people having the best luxuries but we see them having a privileged son living a careless irresponsible life, we see how the rich devalue marriage both with Vanja’s eloping of Anora and the Zacharov’s own marriage, we see how being a henchman to the Zacharovs means having to leave a christening of your godchild because your boss demands so, and we also see how the rich Zacharovs know that their money gives them power and uses it against Anora. Especially when the mother insists the family doesn’t apologize to anyone just as Igor points out Vanya owes Anora an apology for the eloping. It’s quite the irony when a stripper or prostitute has a better sense of what marriage is all about than a billionaire’s son. Or even his parents.

Often overlooked, I feel one of the top themes in the film is love. We have Anora, a stripper who pretends to love the men she sleeps with, but she craves real love. We have Vanya, whom Anora thinks she found love with as she spends weeks with him and easily falls for his marriage proposal. Anora is oblivious Vanya wants to marry an American so he doesn’t have to return to Russia and work his father’s business. Even the scenes as Vanya’s playing video games after the two marry hinds at Vanya’s irresponsibility. We also have Anora’s delusion with the marriage. Even though Vanya continues to play video games after they marry, she still thinks she met her love. We have the Zacharovs who view their son marrying a sex worker to be a disgrace to the family. We also see scenes which make you question the Zacharov’s own marriage. Finally we have Igor who becomes the first person to see Anora as a human being instead of ‘that thing.’ It was made obvious in the scene where Igor says Vanya owes Anora an apology. That ending where he allows her to stay at the Zacharovs one last night to sleep, bathe and pack and the ending scene as he’s about to drop her off is also an irony. He’s first hired as a henchman to stop the marriage, even if it means brute force, and now he actually has feelings for Anora. A shock to us all, and to a disheartened Anora as well.

This is the big breakthrough film Sean Baker has been waiting for. The film world has known Baker for a long time as one knocking on the door. He’s delivered small breakthrough films before with 2015’s Tangerine and 2017’s The Florida Project. Here, he directs a story that’s intriguing and unpredictable. It first seems like a film that would give us a cartoonish story but as the film progresses, the story is a lot deeper and it’s not the story we thought it was. Also worthy of top acclaim is lead actress Mikey Madison. If you thought you’d never shed tears for the character of a stripper, you will be wrong. It’s remarkable we have a film where the character of a stripper is shown to have real three-dimensional feelings, but Mikey’s performance of Anora was deep and revealing and we actually start feelings for her. He go from seeing her as ‘that thing’ to seeing her as a frail hurt person. Also excellent is Yura Borisov. Nobody expects any of the henchmen to have feelings for Anora, but Yura catches us by surprise. It’s also he who makes the movie into something we didn’t expect. Also good is Mark Eydelshteyn in playing Vanya. His portrayal as an immature irresponsible spoiled rich son makes you want to hate him in the end. Both Aleksey Serebryakov and Darya Ekamasova are great at Vanya’s parents. They also succeed in making you hate them as much as you’ll hate Vanya. We can see why Vanya is a spoiled brat.

Anora is not your typical story of a prostitute or a stripper. It’s a story of a love gone wrong and ends with a love you don’t know if it should be. Those who see it won’t forget it.

The Brutalist

We’ve seen stories about the difficulties of achieving the American Dream before. Some are harder than others. This film takes a cynical look at an architect who achieved his American Dream. We have a Jewish architect who left post-Holocaust Hungary to find refuge in the United States and achieve his success there. We see how he has to fight his demons like his infidelity, family members that are petty, harrowing memories that cause him to take heroin, a difficult market for his Bauhaus style, rival architects, people that want to use him and above all, his own egotism. It’s not at all a pretty sight to see but it does tell a good story of a man hoping to pursue his greatness in the United States.

The thing that makes this film is not just the telling of Laszlo Toth’s story, but how it’s presented. The film begins as Laszlo’s ship sails past Ellis Island and he sees the Statue Of Liberty, but from his angle, he has to look at it upside down. He has to struggle to achieve his dream by eating at soup kitchens, living at the YMCA, embraced and then neglected by a family member who’s a successful business man, and having to prostitute himself at times. His breakthrough comes by fluke as it was the renovation unapproved by Harrison Van Buren where they first meet, and the meeting is bad. It’s after Harrison discovers who Laszlo is and of Laszlo’s pre-war success in Hungary that he’s willing to take him on. It’s not an easy task as it involves years of work and labor, supplies cancellations, dirty work form Harrison, his friendship with Gordon put to the test and Laszlo’s own ego coming to light. Then there’s how Laszlo’s attempt on success threatens his marriage to Erszebet as she has now arrived in the United States. She knows his secrets and she says she’s fine with it, but it will become obvious she’s not. His success threatens family unity with the niece as the daughter adopted after the Holocaust.

The crazy thing about the film having a half-hour intermission may have some question its purpose. We should remember many decades ago, it was common for long movies to have intermissions. This film’s intermission is very successful not only in dividing the movie properly, but give you the feeling you’re watching two different films. The first half focuses on Laszlo’s arrival, his attempt to make it in the United States, the dirty obstacles he has to face and his big break. And right while he’s writing to Erzsebet with the hopes of her coming to the United States. At the end of the intermission comes a new scenario. As Erzsebet finally arrives in the United States with niece Zsofia, there’s the added pressure of keeping a family together. Especially since Laszlo can’t keep his secrets to Erzsebet any more and she has a disability to deal with. Over time, she senses things like Laszlo’s ego and how Harrison wants to make a pet out of him. Despite being confined to a wheelchair, Erzsebet is able to muster the strength to use her walker to confront Harrison about his mistreatment of Laszlo. The ending epilogue is also something as Laszlo is saluted for his work, in Italy. It’s like he achieved his American Dream but had to achieve it at a harrowing cost and he had to get his honor from outside the US.

This is an accomplishment from Brady Corbet. Younger adults may remember his teen actor days in films like Thirteen and Thunderbirds. Like a lot of young actors, Corbet felt the need to make films of his own. This is Corbet’s fourth feature film. This film that he directs and co-wrote the story with wife Mona Fastvold is definitely something. It mixes some classic film styles while telling the story of a Holocaust survivor’s pursuit of the American Dream. There have been films where the American Dream has been achieved at a big cost before, but this film meshes Laszlo’s pursuit with the shaping of the United States and most notably Pennsylvania after World War II. As the US shapes itself after the war, Laszlo attempts to shape his success in the US, but at a huge price that comes at the cost of him, his dignity and his marriage. Right at the end as they have the tribute gala in the epilogue, you wonder if this should be a happy occasion or not with what Laszlo has gone through.

Excellent performance from Adrien Brody. Remember him from 2003’s The Pianist? He appears to have kept it low-key since. This year, he comes back with another performance of a lifetime where he shows Laszlo to be a creative man and a troubled man. He will make you hate him as much as he will break your heart. Also great is Felicity Jones as Erzsebet. It’s the appearance of Erzsebet that most turns this film into two films in one. With her arrival comes the change of environment. She appears to be one who will most interfere with Laszlo’s success and even a victim of his own selfishness but in the end, she’s the best person Laszlo needs during his most troubling time. Guy Pearce is also great as the deceptive Harrison. He’s excellent in portraying an all-American businessman who welcomes Laszlo and his talents, but as long as something’s in it for him and is willing to make a toy of Laszlo. Additional excellent acting comes from Raffey Cassidy, as the niece Zsofia who’s mute at first but soon develops her ability to talk, and from Isaach de Bankole as Gordon, Laszlo’s first friend and business associate who Laszlo later turns on in his success. Excellent technical merits are the cinematography of Lol Crawley, the production design of Judy Becker and the musical score from Daniel Blumberg.

It’s easy to see why The Brutalist is a heavy favorite to win Best Picture. It combines a graphic disturbing story of one man’s pursuit of the the American Dream and shows it in a stylish artistic fashion. Hard to outdo it.

And there’s my look at the first two Best Picture nominees for this year. If you’ve seen them, you can understand why they’ve won most of the Best Picture awards.