Euro 2024

UEFA Euro 2024: Predictions For Knockout Rounds

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The image above shows the flags of the sixteen nations still in the running. The whole point of those 36 games of group play is to reduce the field of 24 to the 16 most worthy of advancing. After that, each round is a knockout match to pare down the field to the two to square off for the Euro Cup. The group play was quite interesting. A hat trick wasn’t scored but a lot of brilliant goals. There were four 0-0 games. I hate 0-0 games! There were a lot of controversial referee calls. Also a lot of shockers from teams one wouldn’t consider a favorite but made it through. For all the teams, none of the teams had a case of losing all three games. One group was a case of only a single win and the rest draws to decide. Another group was a case all four teams had a win, a loss and a draw. It must have been tough to decide the finishing order, which they eventually did.

On Saturday the 29th starts the knockout rounds. After all that group play to narrow the 24 to 16, the upcoming Round Of 16 is just a single game for each team to narrow the field of 16 to 8. The layout for the Round of 16 doesn’t make the same clear sense as the Round of 16 in a 32-team World Cup, but this is how UEFA arranges it. I just hope the tournament ends up with the right two in the final. In the meantime, here are my predictions for each match. Matches are in chronological order and my prediction for the winner will be bolded:

ROUND OF 16

Switzerland (Group A 2nd.) vs. Italy (Group B 2nd.): Switzerland finished 2nd in Group A without a loss. It all started with a 3-1 win to Hungary, then 1-1 draws to both Scotland and Germany. Italy opened well against Albania 2-1, lost to Spain 1-0 thanks to an own-goal and drew 1-1 against Croatia in the stoppage time at the end. For this match, I predict Switzerland to win on penalty kicks. The last time Switzerland lost to Italy was 1993.

Germany (Group A 1st.) vs. Denmark (Group C 2nd.): Being the host nation, Germany knew they had to deliver, and deliver well! They did just that opening the Euro with a 5-1 win over Scotland and a 2-0 win over Hungary. Their qualification guaranteed, they could afford to draw 1-1 against Switzerland. Denmark had the good fortune of drawing all three games in their group: 1-1 draws to Slovenia and England and ending with a scoreless draw to Serbia. For this game, I predict Germany to win because they’ve been better at delivering this tournament and making wins happen.

England (Group C 1st.) vs. Slovakia (Group D/E/F 3rd.) Group C was the group where five of the six games were draws. England delivered the only win: 1-0 against Serbia. With their scoreless draw to Slovenia and 1-1 draw to Denmark, that was enough to make them top Group C. Slovakia was in a group that was just as tight. All four Group E teams had a win, a draw and a loss. Slovakia’s win was to Belgium 1-0, their loss to Ukraine 2-1, and their draw to Romania 1-1. For this game I predict England. England has never lost to Slovakia in the six times they played. A single draw at Euro 2016 but never lost.

Spain (Group B 1st.) vs. Georgia (Group D/E/F 3rd.): Spain had it’s win of Group B guaranteed after the second game! They opened 3-1 against Croatia and did 2-1 against Italy. Their 1-0 win over Albania just was a bonus for straight wins. Georgia went from the surprise of qualifying to the surprise of this tournament. They lost their opener to Turkey 3-1, came back to draw against Czechia 1-1 and then win to Portugal 2-0. For this match, I predict Spain. The two have met head-to-head seven times and Spain only lost to Georgia once. Spain won the rest of the times..

France (Group D 2nd.) vs. Belgium (Group E 2nd.): A classic match! France finished second in Group D starting with a 1-0 win over Austria, the only Group F team to beat Austria, a scoreless draw to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw to Poland. Belgium started their Group E play with a surprise 1-0 loss to Slovakia, then came back with a 2-0 win to Romania and ended with a scoreless draw to Ukraine. For this, I think this will go to a draw with France winning on penalty kicks.

Portugal (Group F 1st.) vs. Slovenia (Group A/B/C 3rd.): Portugal not only clinched qualification after their first two games, but they also clinched first place in Group F in the process! A 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 win over Turkey is all it took. They could afford to lose to Georgia 2-0 and still top Group F! Slovenia was straight draws with 1-1 to Denmark, 1-1 to Serbia and ended with scoreless against Denmark. Despite the same goal differentials as Denmark, their extra yellow card caused them to finish third in the group. Portugal look on target but I think the game will go to Slovenia. Why? In the one time they ever met, a friendly just three months ago, Slovenia won 2-0.

Romania (Group E 1st.) vs. The Netherlands (Group A/C/D 3rd.): Romania began Group E with a 3-0 win over Ukraine, then endured a 2-0 loss to Belgium and ended it with a 1-1 draw to Slovakia. The Netherlands also had their own win, loss and draw in Group D. They began with a 2-1 win over Poland, a scoreless draw to France and a surprise 3-2 loss to Austria. The two have met 13 times and Netherlands have won nine times. I predict Netherlands to win again.

Austria (Group D 1st.) vs. Turkey (Group F 2nd.): Nobody expected Austria to go too far at Euro 2024. Even their 1-0 to France thanks to an own-goal didn’t help. Then came their 3-1 win over Poland and their 3-2 win over the Netherlands en route to topping Group D. Maybe Austria is a stronger team than we thought! Turkey began Euro 2024 with a 3-1 win over Georgia, endured a 3-0 loss to Portugal and came back to a 2-1 win over Czechia. The last time Austria and Turkey met was three months ago and Austria won 6-1. I expect Austria to win again.

QUARTERFINALS

Why do I predict quarterfinals before I even know who the quarterfinalists are? Do you know how tiring writing is? Anyways as in past years, I plan to take a short break and not publish my next Euro blog until just before the semifinals. With that in mind, I’ll go as if my predictions for the Round of 16 matches actually came true. So here are my thoughts:

Spain vs. Germany – They frequently meet and the results alternate: 26 previous meetings; 8 Spain wins; 9 Germany wins; 9 draws. I think this will be a tight match leading into a penalty kick round which Germany will win.

Slovenia vs. France – They’ve met three times in the past and France has won each time. Even though their last previous meeting was over 20 years ago, I don’t think much has changed. I expect France to win again.

Netherlands vs. Austria – It’s possible two teams that clashed in the Group stage could meet again this soon. If they do meet again, I anticipate a draw game with Netherlands to win on penalties.

England vs. Switzerland – They’ve met 27 times before but England has won nineteen times. I’m not expecting much to change this time so I think it will be a win for England again.

And there you have it. Those are predictions for the Round of 16 matches and my ‘estimates’ for the quarterfinals. All we have to do is wait for the games to play to see who really wins. In the meantime, you’ll get my next blog where I predict the semifinals.

UEFA Euro 2024: Intro and Group A Focus

Jon The Blogcentric2 Comments

The 2024 UEFA European Football Championships, commonly referred to as Euro 2024, will be starting very soon! There will be a lot of differences from that of the previous Euro 2020. For starters, there will be no full-year delay because of a pandemic and there will be no regulated seating like it was in some stadiums. Secondly, it has returned to a single-nation hosting format. This year, Germany hosts and it will be held in ten different venues. All of the stadiums have been built long before but the Stuttgart Arena and Hamburg’s Volksparkstadion went through renovations or expansions in time for this tournament.

THE GROUPS OF EURO 2024

Qualifying for Euro 2024 was no easy feat as it would involve team’s play for almost a full year for some, starting in late-March 2023. Twenty of the teams would secure their berths by November of 2023 with twelve more nations needing to play in the playoffs in March of this year to secure the last three berths. Drawings of the groups were done through a system of UEFA”s Nations League rankings that don’t make too much sense. Russia was banned from the tournament because of their role in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Even the system of qualifying didn’t make too much sense. The top two of each of the ten groups would qualify; that made sense. Finishing third, however, didn’t guarantee qualifying for the repechage playoff round as Nations League points would supersede it in some cases. Some groups didn’t have any teams qualify for the playoff route, some teams that finished lower than third in their group would advance to the playoff round, and Group J had their 3rd, 4th and 5th place teams advance! The playoffs were the most straightforward as the twelve qualified teams were drawn into three groups of four and it was a knockout tournament with the last team standing in its group advancing and completing the last three berths.

GROUP A FOCUS

After all that, the twenty-four teams competing in Euro 2024 have been decided. Nineteen of the teams are returnees from Euro 2020, one team will be in its first Euro since 2000 and one team is making their Euro debut! Now to start with my look at each group’s teams and my prediction of who will most likely qualify form the groups. FIFA rankings are in brackets:

-Germany (16): They may be known as the DFB-Team or The Mannschaft, but Germany has one of the biggest legacies among European teams. It’s not just their World Cup success with four wins but at the Euro, they’ve won three times and qualified for an additional three finals! Nevertheless, it all feels like a distant memory as Germany have struggled these past six years. Disappointments include going out in the Group Stage at the 2018 World Cup, a lousy ranking in the Nations League and an ouster in the Round Of 16 at Euro 2020. This led them to drop longtime coach Joaquin Low and take on former Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick. Troubles continued as Germany again was out in the Group Stage at World Cup 2022. After more lackluster results, Flick was dismissed in September 2023. To add further shock, it was announced this March the German team would switch their national kit supplier to Nike in 2027 from Adidas: a brand they’ve been with for seven decades.

Although Germany is going through tough times, this is not the lowest they’ve ranked on FIFA’s list. Their lowest ever is 22nd in March 2006, just three months before World Cup 2006 which Germany hosted. The team is now headed by former Bayern Munich manager Julian Nagelsmann. The only members of the 2014 World Cup winning team that are still there are goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, midfielder Toni Kroos and striker Thomas Muller. The rest of the team consists of a lot of young rising talent with other established members. 2023 was a bad year with losing six of their eleven friendlies. Ever since Nagelsmann was made head, they’ve had struggles with a 3-2 loss to Turkey and a 2-0 loss to Austria. They’ve also had some wins with 3-1 against the USA, 2-0 against France and 2-1 wins against both the Netherlands and Greece. This tournament will give Germany a chance to rebuild its reputation as a major world football force in the world’s eyes.

-Scotland (39): The Tartan Army is commonly seen as the hard luck team in major tournaments. Not only have they played in the most World Cups without advancing past the opening Group Stage, but they’ve also played the most Euros without ever advancing to the Group Stage: three in total! I remember one Scottish comedian saying they have the most creative ways in getting eliminated from major tournaments.

The team has been coached by Steve Clarke since 2019. His success in getting Scotland to Euro 2020, their first Euro in 24 years, helped keep him coach despite the team not qualifying for the 2022 World Cup. Most of the team’s players hail from either teams from the Premier League or the Scottish Premiership. They did an excellent job in their Euro qualifying play, winning all games except one to Spain. Play since has been troubling as they have drawn to Georgia, Finland and Norway and have lost to England, France, the Netherlands and Northern Ireland. Germany 2024 is another chance for Scotland to take its team to new heights and possibly their first-ever knockout round in a major tournament.

-Hungary (26): Sometimes it does seem like the days of the Magical Magyars are a thing of the past with being in two World Cup finals, winning three Olympic gold medals and finishing third at only the second Euro ever. As Hungary made the move from Communism to freedom in the late 80’s, it actually caused a decline in football as the fall of Communism caused financial problems for many Hungarian clubs including some of their bigger clubs declaring bankruptcy in the 90’s. The resurgence of Hungarian football started in the 2010’s with qualifying for the past three Euros starting in 2016.

The team has been coached by Italian Marco Rossi since 2018. The team has a wide variety of players that play for various leagues, but it has done a lot of promotion of its younger talent. In fact the team captain, midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai who plays for Liverpool, is only 23 years old. Since 2023 began, Hungary has had a great record, achieving wins against Turkey, Serbia (twice) and Lithuania, and its only loss coming from Ireland. Euro 2024 can be another opportunity to bring Hungary’s past magic back!

-Switzerland (19): Switzerland is often seen by many as a sleeping giant. La Nati have not had that much of a legacy but the team shows potential to achieve greatness at any time. They’ve qualified for the last five World Cup and have made it to the Round Of 16 in four of them. The first Euro where they qualified for the knockout round was in 2016 and in 2020, they made it to the quarterfinals.

Switzerland is coached by Yurat Makin, who became their coach in August 2021, shortly after Euro 2020. Veteran greats like Granit Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri will be returning, but the team will feature a mix of old and new talent. They were consistent in group play in Euro qualifying. They’ve managed wins against Israel, Belarus, Estonia and Ireland but they’ve also had losses to Romania and draws to Denmark, Austria and Kosovo. Germany could be the stage for the Swiss team to reach new heights.

My Predictions: And now is that hard part of the blog. Predicting the two or three teams that will qualify for the knockout round. I will say Germany and Hungary with Switzerland a wildcard.

And there you go! That’s my first blog for Euro 2024 where I do a group breakdown. More to come over the next two weeks.