La Furia Roja

UEFA Euro 2024: Predictions For Knockout Rounds

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The image above shows the flags of the sixteen nations still in the running. The whole point of those 36 games of group play is to reduce the field of 24 to the 16 most worthy of advancing. After that, each round is a knockout match to pare down the field to the two to square off for the Euro Cup. The group play was quite interesting. A hat trick wasn’t scored but a lot of brilliant goals. There were four 0-0 games. I hate 0-0 games! There were a lot of controversial referee calls. Also a lot of shockers from teams one wouldn’t consider a favorite but made it through. For all the teams, none of the teams had a case of losing all three games. One group was a case of only a single win and the rest draws to decide. Another group was a case all four teams had a win, a loss and a draw. It must have been tough to decide the finishing order, which they eventually did.

On Saturday the 29th starts the knockout rounds. After all that group play to narrow the 24 to 16, the upcoming Round Of 16 is just a single game for each team to narrow the field of 16 to 8. The layout for the Round of 16 doesn’t make the same clear sense as the Round of 16 in a 32-team World Cup, but this is how UEFA arranges it. I just hope the tournament ends up with the right two in the final. In the meantime, here are my predictions for each match. Matches are in chronological order and my prediction for the winner will be bolded:

ROUND OF 16

Switzerland (Group A 2nd.) vs. Italy (Group B 2nd.): Switzerland finished 2nd in Group A without a loss. It all started with a 3-1 win to Hungary, then 1-1 draws to both Scotland and Germany. Italy opened well against Albania 2-1, lost to Spain 1-0 thanks to an own-goal and drew 1-1 against Croatia in the stoppage time at the end. For this match, I predict Switzerland to win on penalty kicks. The last time Switzerland lost to Italy was 1993.

Germany (Group A 1st.) vs. Denmark (Group C 2nd.): Being the host nation, Germany knew they had to deliver, and deliver well! They did just that opening the Euro with a 5-1 win over Scotland and a 2-0 win over Hungary. Their qualification guaranteed, they could afford to draw 1-1 against Switzerland. Denmark had the good fortune of drawing all three games in their group: 1-1 draws to Slovenia and England and ending with a scoreless draw to Serbia. For this game, I predict Germany to win because they’ve been better at delivering this tournament and making wins happen.

England (Group C 1st.) vs. Slovakia (Group D/E/F 3rd.) Group C was the group where five of the six games were draws. England delivered the only win: 1-0 against Serbia. With their scoreless draw to Slovenia and 1-1 draw to Denmark, that was enough to make them top Group C. Slovakia was in a group that was just as tight. All four Group E teams had a win, a draw and a loss. Slovakia’s win was to Belgium 1-0, their loss to Ukraine 2-1, and their draw to Romania 1-1. For this game I predict England. England has never lost to Slovakia in the six times they played. A single draw at Euro 2016 but never lost.

Spain (Group B 1st.) vs. Georgia (Group D/E/F 3rd.): Spain had it’s win of Group B guaranteed after the second game! They opened 3-1 against Croatia and did 2-1 against Italy. Their 1-0 win over Albania just was a bonus for straight wins. Georgia went from the surprise of qualifying to the surprise of this tournament. They lost their opener to Turkey 3-1, came back to draw against Czechia 1-1 and then win to Portugal 2-0. For this match, I predict Spain. The two have met head-to-head seven times and Spain only lost to Georgia once. Spain won the rest of the times..

France (Group D 2nd.) vs. Belgium (Group E 2nd.): A classic match! France finished second in Group D starting with a 1-0 win over Austria, the only Group F team to beat Austria, a scoreless draw to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw to Poland. Belgium started their Group E play with a surprise 1-0 loss to Slovakia, then came back with a 2-0 win to Romania and ended with a scoreless draw to Ukraine. For this, I think this will go to a draw with France winning on penalty kicks.

Portugal (Group F 1st.) vs. Slovenia (Group A/B/C 3rd.): Portugal not only clinched qualification after their first two games, but they also clinched first place in Group F in the process! A 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 win over Turkey is all it took. They could afford to lose to Georgia 2-0 and still top Group F! Slovenia was straight draws with 1-1 to Denmark, 1-1 to Serbia and ended with scoreless against Denmark. Despite the same goal differentials as Denmark, their extra yellow card caused them to finish third in the group. Portugal look on target but I think the game will go to Slovenia. Why? In the one time they ever met, a friendly just three months ago, Slovenia won 2-0.

Romania (Group E 1st.) vs. The Netherlands (Group A/C/D 3rd.): Romania began Group E with a 3-0 win over Ukraine, then endured a 2-0 loss to Belgium and ended it with a 1-1 draw to Slovakia. The Netherlands also had their own win, loss and draw in Group D. They began with a 2-1 win over Poland, a scoreless draw to France and a surprise 3-2 loss to Austria. The two have met 13 times and Netherlands have won nine times. I predict Netherlands to win again.

Austria (Group D 1st.) vs. Turkey (Group F 2nd.): Nobody expected Austria to go too far at Euro 2024. Even their 1-0 to France thanks to an own-goal didn’t help. Then came their 3-1 win over Poland and their 3-2 win over the Netherlands en route to topping Group D. Maybe Austria is a stronger team than we thought! Turkey began Euro 2024 with a 3-1 win over Georgia, endured a 3-0 loss to Portugal and came back to a 2-1 win over Czechia. The last time Austria and Turkey met was three months ago and Austria won 6-1. I expect Austria to win again.

QUARTERFINALS

Why do I predict quarterfinals before I even know who the quarterfinalists are? Do you know how tiring writing is? Anyways as in past years, I plan to take a short break and not publish my next Euro blog until just before the semifinals. With that in mind, I’ll go as if my predictions for the Round of 16 matches actually came true. So here are my thoughts:

Spain vs. Germany – They frequently meet and the results alternate: 26 previous meetings; 8 Spain wins; 9 Germany wins; 9 draws. I think this will be a tight match leading into a penalty kick round which Germany will win.

Slovenia vs. France – They’ve met three times in the past and France has won each time. Even though their last previous meeting was over 20 years ago, I don’t think much has changed. I expect France to win again.

Netherlands vs. Austria – It’s possible two teams that clashed in the Group stage could meet again this soon. If they do meet again, I anticipate a draw game with Netherlands to win on penalties.

England vs. Switzerland – They’ve met 27 times before but England has won nineteen times. I’m not expecting much to change this time so I think it will be a win for England again.

And there you have it. Those are predictions for the Round of 16 matches and my ‘estimates’ for the quarterfinals. All we have to do is wait for the games to play to see who really wins. In the meantime, you’ll get my next blog where I predict the semifinals.

UEFA Euro 2024: Group Stage With One Game To Go

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

How about that? All 24 teams have completed their second game, or Matchday 2. There’s only one last group game to play and that will finalize the Group Stage standings and determine the qualifiers for the knockout rounds.

This year, there is an interesting allotment of the types of teams playing, but there are certain types of teams here in Germany that have stood out the most. We have teams who appeared to have lost their greatness before now playing hard to get it back. We have teams demonstrating their known consistency. We have underdogs surprising fans with wins over big guns. We also have teams that had a “Golden Generation” for many years that looks like their luster is running out and the younger players haven’t been well-trained to keep their team’s prowess active.

Now there’s only one game remaining in the Group Stage. That’s commonly referred to as ‘Matchday 3.’ Three teams right now have already guaranteed qualification by winning their first two games. With more than two groups having at least one draw game, two wins are a guarantee for qualification at this stage. Two of those teams have also already guaranteed a first-place finish in their group because of their win over the team in second place. Here at Euro, head-to-head results supersede goal differentials which the World Cup uses to to be the top tie-breaker in group rankings. In addition, only one team is guaranteed elimination already. Right now, the fates of twenty teams are still unknown and they will all need Matchday 3 to decide everything.

With one game to go, here’s my look at the teams in each of the Euro 2024 groups and what they need to qualify. Teams that have already qualified will be bolded. Group titles will contain links to my original group blogs:

Group A:

Some could say Germany did it in the very opening game. That remains to be seen. What is a fact is Germany won both their opening games and the hosts have guaranteed themselves qualification to the knockout round! A 5-1 against Scotland in the opener and their 2-0 win over Hungary did it. Second in the standings is Switzerland with their 3-1 win over Hungary and a 1-1 draw against Scotland. Germany and Switzerland meet for their last game. Switzerland can guarantee qualification with a draw. Even if they lose, the are still assured a top-three finish and are in conformable standings to qualify, though it’s not guaranteed. Their play against Germany will decide it all.

Of the teams in Group A that have not won a match, Scotland is third with a 5-1 loss to Germany and a 1-1 draw to Switzerland. At the bottom is Hungary with a 3-1 loss to Switzerland and a 2-0 loss to Germany. Both teams will face each other Sunday. No doubt that in order to have qualifying chances for the knockout round, either team must win. Despite the advantage of a draw to Switzerland, a draw against Hungary will not be enough for Scotland to qualify with two draws and a big loss. Even if Hungary wins over Scotland, it’s game results and goal differentials that will decide if their among the four wildcard teams that advance.

Group B:

Spain did it! They opened with a 3-0 win over Croatia and a 1-0 win against Italy thanks to an own goal from Riccardo Calafiore. Their two wins guarantee them qualification no matter what happens in Game 3. Their win over Italy guarantees them first place in Group B! Although Italy’s qualification is not guaranteed, the Azzurri are second with their 2-1 win over Albania. A draw against Croatia is all they need to qualify.

For the two teams at the bottom, Albania and Croatia, they still have qualification chances with both having a loss and a draw but for both teams, they need nothing less than a win to qualify. That will be a nail biter especially because both teams will face a highly touted opponent on Matchday 3; Albania will face Spain and Croatia will face Italy. After that 2-2 draw, Albania has an advantage because they have less of a goal differential. Nevertheless it’s down to the wire for both teams in a must-win situation. I don’t call Group B the Group Of Death for nothing!

Group C:

Sometimes in group play, you can get some groups that are quite decisive in who are the biggest and best in the group. Other times, the play in the group will be hard to decipher who are the powers of the group. Group C is that group as it’s hard to tell who are the better teams. Four games have been played and three of them were 1-1 draws. The only game where a winner was declared was England’s 1-0 win over Serbia. That lone win puts England at the top of the group and with very comfortable chances to qualify. I’ve been calling Group B the “Group Of Death” because of the caliber of the teams but it looks like with the closeness of play at Euro 2024, Group C should be called the “Group Of Death.”

Actually right now, none of the teams have enough points to qualify, but none of the teams are out. All four are still eligible. Despite England having it best, both Slovenia and Denmark have it good with two tie games each. A win from either will solidify qualifying. At the very least, a draw could help either of them for a wildcard berth as three draws is three game points and even goal differentials. Serbia still has qualifying chances but being the one team in Group C to take a loss, they will need nothing less than a win to qualify. Two draws and a loss won’t cut it in the wildcard third-place runoff.

Group D:

Group D has a unique situation. None of the teams have guaranteed qualification and one team is out of contention. The three teams that still have chances will need Matchday 3 to decide anything and everything. Leading the group are the Netherlands and France with a win and a draw each. The Netherlands opened well with a 2-1 win over Poland while France won over Austria 1-0 thanks to an own-goal by Maximilian Wober. The two teams played each other on Friday but it ended a scoreless draw. If you ask me, there are a lot of big name teams that are not playing like they want it. A simple draw can guarantee qualification for either team.

Austria opened up with the hard luck of a 1-0 loss to France thanks to Wober’s own goal. When they faced Poland, it was a surprise 3-1 win for Austria. That win is crucial for Austria’s qualifying chances, but their match against the Netherlands will decide things. As for Poland, they’re out. They lost 2-1 to the Netherlands and 3-1 to Austria. Even if they win their game against France and Austria loses, Austria will still have the advantage for their win over Poland. The head-to-head factor.

Group E:

Sigh. That subject about the ‘Group Of Death’ again! Group E is another group worthy of being labeled the Group Of Death because of the play so far. Talk about tight play! All four teams of Group E are even. All four had a win and a loss. Teams most people thought would not be among contenders delivered surprise wins at the start and keep their qualifying chances healthy. I’m not sure if there are any specific head-to-head rules that explain the current rankings, but the goal differentials look to be what’s deciding the current rankings. Despite losing to Belgium 2-0, Romania leads thanks to their 3-0 win over Ukraine while Belgium takes second due to their 1-0 loss to Slovakia. Slovakia is third because of even goal differentials after their 2-1 loss to Ukraine and Ukraine is at the bottom as the one nation with negative goal differentials thanks to their 3-0 loss to Romania.

Any of the four can qualify. Thanks to all four having a win and a loss, none have guaranteed qualification and none are out and it will take Matchday 3 to decide everything. Slovakia will play Romania and Ukraine will play Belgium. If both games are draws, only then would the current standings factor in qualification. It will have to be a case of either both games having a winner and a loser or the case of one game having a winner and the other drawing in order to decide the qualifiers to the next round.

Group F:

There must be something about being a team from the Iberian Peninsula this year because Portugal not only qualified but like Spain, they too guaranteed top of their group! It took a 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 win over Turkey to solidify it! Even if they lose to Georgia on Wednesday and Turkey wins, Portugal will still finish first because of their win over Turkey.

Despite the loss, Turkey is second in the group and has good chances to qualify. Turkey can still qualify if they draw, even if Georgia wins. For both Czechia and Georgia, both teams will need nothing less than a win to qualify. Their 1-1 draw against each other keeps them in contention but a win needs to happen for either to qualify. Especially for the third-place wildcard berths because the two third-place teams with the lowest game results will join the fourth-place teams from each group packing for home sooner than they hoped!

And there you have it! That’s my summary for the Euro 2024 groups with Matchday 3 being all that’s left for all 24 teams. It will be interesting to learn of the other thirteen that advance and the seven others that get an earlier-than-hoped return home!

UEFA Euro 2024 Preview Links

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

One of the crazy things over the past three years is watching a football tournament with decent time zones. For Qatar 2022, there were some games I had to wake up real early to see at a cafe for 7am! For the Women’s World Cup last year, they were in Australia and New Zealand so I had to be really lucky if I wanted to catch them at good times. I think the final was at 3am my time. I tried to wake up on time that Sunday but it didn’t work out.

For Euro 2024, the times of the games are better for me. The first nine days may have some games that start as early as 6am for me, but the rest of the games starting times are either 9am or noon my time. Just like previous years, I plan to see them in as many cafes as I can.

This blog is a fast reference to all the blogging I’ve done about the six Euro groups. The links are in the group titles and by them, I will list my predictions for teams I expect to qualify out of those groups:

Group A – Germany, Hungary and Switzerland the wildcard (WC)

Group B – Spain, Croatia and Italy the WC

Group C – England and Denmark

Group D – France, Netherlands and Poland the WC

Group E – Belgium and Ukraine

Group F – Portugal, Czechia and Turkey the WC

UEFA Euro 2024: Group B Focus

Jon The Blogcentric2 Comments

It’s crazy how they arrange these groups. Sometimes you wonder how do they organize these draws? Especially if you look at Group B. Of all groups in this Euro, Group B is the one group that can best be called the “group of death.” Look at the roster of teams! Three of them are ranked in FIFA’s most recent Top 10! Not only that but three of those teams were also in Group C in Euro 2012! Coincidence? Hmmm.

For those curious about what happened in 2012, Euro 2012 was a case only the Top 2 qualified. Spain and Italy not only qualified, but they would go on to be the two finalists, which Spain won!

In the meantime, let’s see how the four teams of Group B stack up and which teams will be the qualifiers:

-Spain (8): La Furia Roja may often come across as the World Cup’s greatest underachievers but they do very little underachieving at the Euro. Just like Germany, Spain also has three Euro wins. They were also semi finalists in the previous Euro tournament. They continued their achievements last year as they won the UEFA Nations League. The two Nations League teams they played against last year, Spain will be facing again right here in group play! One thing to point out about Spain is they’ve had a habit of slacking off in the early stages of group play and they can’t afford to do it here!

Spain is currently managed by Luis de la Fuente who has managed the team since their Round Of 16 ouster at the 2022 World Cup. The team is a mix of young and old and most play in Spain’s La Liga. Since then, they’ve had impressive wins over Norway, Italy, and Georgia, drawn against Brazil and Croatia in the Nations League final (which they won on penalty kicks) , had a win and a loss to Scotland and lost to Colombia. Germany is another chance for Spain to excel and possibly win a record-setting fourth Euro trophy!

-Croatia (10): I don’t call Vatreni or The Blazers “the little nation that can” for nothing. A nation under 5 million people and they’ve finished in the Top 3 in three World Cups including third in the most recent World Cup of 2022! Euro play, however, tells a different story. Ever since their existence as their own nation, they’ve qualified for the Euro six out of seven times, they’ve progressed to the knockout round four times, but have never won a knockout match at the Euro. That’s something to take into account.

Croatia has been managed by Zlatko Dalic since 2017. The legendary Luka Modric is the team captain. He will be joined by greats like forward Ivan Perisic, midfielders Mateo Kovacic and Nikola Vlasic and defenders Domagoj Vida and Josko Gvardiol. Their play since the 2022 World Cup has included wins against Netherlands, Armenia, Portugal and Egypt, a win and a loss to Turkey and a draw and a loss to Wales. This Euro is a chance for Croatia to go further than they ever have at the tournament, and even possibly win. Don’t count them out.

-Italy (9): The Gli Azzurri have always been seen as a major powerhouse in football with their superb showings at the Euro and the World Cup. Now they’re an enigma. Ever since they won the World Cup in 2006, they followed it up with two straight outs in the Group Stage and they’ve failed to qualify for the last two World Cups. Their failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup was especially shocking since they won the Euro 2020 eight months earlier and they looked like they were on their way to redeeming themselves.

Since then, the Italian system had to reform itself and they hired Napoli’s Luciano Spalletti as the national coach back in September 2023. The lineup for Italy’s team for the Euro consists of all but three players who play for Italy’s Serie A, eight members who were part of Italy’s Euro-winning team from three years ago and only one from the last World Cup team Italy sent back in 2014! The focus as of late has been getting new talent to rise. Since World Cup 2022 ended, they’ve acquired wins against the Netherlands, Ukraine, Ecuador, Bosnia-Hercegovina and even got revenge against North Macedonia who ended their World Cup 2022 chances! They’ve also had a draw to Turkey and losses to England and Spain. Euro 2024 offers a chance for Italy to redeem itself and regain its reputation as a football great.

-Albania (66): It’s tempting to dismiss the Kuqezinjtë as the weakest link of this group. You shouldn’t jump to conclusions. They’ve won a Euro qualifying game against Portugal in 2014, a friendly against France in 2015, a friendly against Wales in 2018, and both World Cup 2022 qualifying match against Hungary in 2021. Even in their first Euro back in 2016, they achieved a win over Romania. Although they’ve always lost against Italy and Spain and has never played Croatia, history has proven Albania can deliver a shocker. Even their play in the last year helped them move from a C status in UFEA’s Nations League to a B status.

Maybe their recent success is because since the very beginning of 2023, they’ve been coached by a Brazilian: Sylvinho. His coaching has led the team to five wins in eleven games and qualifying for only their second Euro. None of Albania’s team play in teams in their own country and most play in teams for Italy’s Serie A. They’ve achieved wins against Bulgaria, Azerbaijan and the Faroe Islands, a win and a draw to Czechia and Moldova, a win and a loss to Poland, and a loss to Sweden. Germany 2024 is an opportunity for Albania to deliver a shocker of a result and even qualify. Never rule Albania out!

My Predictions: The crazy thing about a group called “Group Of Death” is that eventually predictors will still have to rank first from fourth. It will be a close one which I feel will have the most draws. In the end, I will have to go with recent Nation’s League action and I feel Spain will top, Croatia will be second. Italy will be third but will have enough points and stats to qualify.

And there you go. That’s my look at the four teams of Euro 2024’s Group B. It may be seen by most as the “group of death,” but don’t rule out the other groups. They could have tight rivals too.