O Agente Secreto

My Predictions For The 98th Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 2025 Academy Awards are taking place later on this year: March 15th. My assumption is the broadcast of the Winter Olympic Games is what is holding it up this year. It has been done before that the Oscars would move to a later time to make room for the Winter Olympics. Conan O’Brien is back as host. He did such a good job last year, they made him host again this year. Makes sense that they have a comedian or the host of a late night show do the hosting. They’re normally the best at working it.

So now I finally have my predictions for all the categories. This year, I was able to see enough films to make up 100 of this year’s nominations. Many times, I felt I could have seen more. Still an impressive lot. So without wasting any more time, here are my predictions to win and even a few Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, kudos to Olly Gibbs for delivering another excellent Best Picture nominees poster. He knows how to do it! This year, the ten Best Picture nominees have the biggest monopoly of the nominations I’ve seen in years. Eighty of the 125 nomination! That’s more than 60% right there! Sinners and their record-setting total of nominations has what averages out to be one of every eight nominations. Interestingly enough, the second-most nominated film One Battle After Another amassed thirteen nominations: one short of the old record! For acting nominations, Sinners, One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value combined have eleven of the twenty acting nominations and the rest is nine nominations among nine films! Despite all this dominating of nominations, they’re quite well-spread out. None of the Best Picture nominees has less than four nominations. For the Best Picture race, the year looks to be the race between the strong summer sleeper contender and the winter surprise hit, but that will be decided on the 15th. So here are my short reviews and my prediction for Best Picture:

Bugonia- It’s something that of the three films by Yorgos Lanthimos that have been nominated for Best Picture, Emma Stone has acted in all three! This film has less buzz than the other two: The Favourite and Poor Things. The other two were better as they mixed bizarre humor with the scenarios. This also mixes humor but having a present setting seems odd for a Lanthimos film. It’s lack of buzz is why I feel it won’t win.

F1- I don’t know if you feel the same way but I like seeing a summer movie get nominated for Best Picture. The story and the acting were way better than most summer movies. It’s not just any movie about auto racing. It’s a movie the auto racing federation fully endorsed and includes actual F1 racers including some of the best. As for a contender for Best Picture, its only other three nominations are in the technical categories. It’s chances of winning this category are slim to none.

Frankenstein- If there’s one director who you can trust to do an excellent new adaptation to the Frankenstein story, it’s Guillermo del Toro. It’s an excellent thriller to watch and you will get caught up in the drama. This film has enough qualities to deserve its Best Picture nomination but this year, the Academy is not up for thrillers such as these. On top of it, there have been other thrillers that can compete with this.

Hamnet- Is it possible to have a story about the death of a child have a happy ending? Hamnet proves it’s so. This is an excellent film and an excellent story of love, happiness, loss, tragedy and healing. The film is less a historical docudrama and more of a story of how one woman deals with the heartbreak of loss and how she finds healing in the play her husband creates. This film does have a lot of qualities worthy for it to win Best Picture, but this is a tough year for films like these to contend.

Marty Supreme- At first, you wouldn’t think a film about ping-pong in the 1950’s would make for a hit movie but Marty Supreme does it! A lot of it is the underdog story of a ping pong player who constantly gets himself into trouble and embarrassment to beat the odds. A lot of it is also Timothee Chalamet’s performance. The direction from Josh Safdie definitely helps a lot. It is a good contender for the Best Picture win but there are other films with bigger chances.

One Battle After Another- This year, there doesn’t seem to be as many political films. This film has to be the most political. A mixed-race girl whose white supremacist father wants her dead. A former renegade who’s trying to protect her in the name of her mother and his girlfriend. Definitely a dramatic comedy that will keep you intrigued. It’s the story and Paul Thomas Anderson’s know-how in working a story like this that I make it my Will Win pick.

The Secret Agent- It’s something that this is the second straight year a Brazilian film is nominated for Best Picture! It’s deserving as it mixes humor with the story and keeps the drama without dropping the sincerity of the film’s ending. However for a foreign language film to win Best Picture, it has to really stand out in the competition and this film is missing that quality.

Sentimental Value- The increase in the number of foreign-language films nominated for Best Picture is easy to understand if you see the film. This film is excellent for its storytelling and its acting. It’s a drama of a theme many can relate to and mixes the theme of art in family conflict. It’s an excellent drama but for Best Picture, it is up against tougher competition.

Sinners- If there’s one film of 2025 that deserves to be called a masterpiece, this is it. A horror story that blends music, folk legends, the supernatural, demon spirits, and the theme of racism and Jim Crow laws. Definitely a story that’s unforgettable and grabs your attention from start to finish. That’s why I declare this film my Should Win pick and my pick for most likely to upset.

Train Dreams- The film feels like a nice piece of Americana. Just as much as the novel it’s based on feels like a piece of Americana. It does a great job of giving the audience the feel of the area it’s set in as it tells the story. As for its Best Picture chances, it doesn’t have a good shot as there is tougher competition.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

The Best Director category is one contest where it is too tough to call. Two great directors directing the two most lauded films of 2025. One is set in the past while another is an adapted story set to the present. Both of them mix politics into their stories. Both of them have something to say. It’s a tough call but I think Paul Thomas Anderson will take it. It’s a career of almost 30 years that started with his 1996 debut Hard Eight. He first caught the Academy’s eye with 1997’s Boogie Nights where he got his first Oscar nomination for screenplay. He got his first Best Director nomination for 2007’s There Will Be Blood. Further acclaim would grow with Inherent Vice, Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza. Many cinephiles look to One Battle After Another to finally be his time.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

The Academy has some interesting factoids about how picky and choosy they are about awarding certain Oscars. One out of every three Best Actress Oscar wins have gone to actresses before their 30th birthday. The most recent, Mikey Madison, was last year. As of today, only one Best Actor Oscar win went to an actor before his 30th birthday. The most recent, Adrien Brody, is that actor but he won for The Pianist in 2003. Last year, Timothy Chalamet had a chance to break that record with A Complete Unknown. Although he can’t break that record as he just turned 30 in December, his performance is Marty Supreme looks poised to do that. The only thing is there was surprise at SAG’s Actor awards with Michael B. Jordan winning for Sinners.

Not only has Jordan’s win been seen as a big boost, but lately Chalamet’s talk has been making headlines for negative reasons. It wasn’t just his comments on ballet and opera. Some time ago, he said Hollywood stars should stop being pretentious. That can boost Jordan’s chances of winning. Even without the eyebrow-raising talk of Chalamet, Michael’s performance as two twin brothers of differing personalities and one being possessed by the spirit is excellent work deserving of the Oscar. Chalamet still remains as my pick for the one most likely to upset.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

I am going to make my write-up here short because I’m that confident about here win. She’s that clear of a favorite because this happens to be the best actress performance of the year. In a film about a play inspired by a tragedy to William Shakespeare, it’s the performance of the actress playing his wife is what makes the film. Jessie’s performance of Agnes Shakespeare is loaded with dimension and will touch you. Her performance sets the mood of the film and gives character to a famous playwright’s wife whom few know much of. Her performance of going from having the joy of life to hurting from tragedy to a triumph of healing at the end is just completely remarkable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

It’s often the case that one of the toughest categories to predict the winner is in the supporting acting categories. And understandably so. It’s a question of which supporting performance stole the show? Which performance qualifies as lead? Which performance brought the most during its short time? It’s hard to decide. This year’s contenders don’t make it any easier. Despite winning the SAG Actor award, I have a feeling Sean Penn won’t win. He’s won two Oscars before. I also feel his One Battle After Another co-star Benicio del Toro won’t win because he won back in 2000 for Traffic.

I feel the win will go to the Golden Globe winner, Stellan Skarsgård. Skarsgård could arguably qualify to make a running for lead actor. His performance as the father trying to make amends with his relationships with his daughters and his film work is both intense and touching. He really magnifies someone who’s both flawed and troubled, but seeks to make things right, despite his shortcomings. I feel he should win it.

Should Win and Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons

It’s interesting in this category. A mixed bag of winners throughout this season. Wunmi taking the BAFTA, Teyana taking the Golden Globe, and Amy taking the SAG and Critics Choice. I have to go with Amy. It’s easy to think that she, not Julia Garner, is the lead actress. She does a great job of playing a villain who’s both manipulative and threatening. She does a convincing job of playing a villain who knows how to instill fear in a child and mess with adults. Her performance has a lot to do with why Weapons is a box office hit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

I’m sure most of you have not read the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland. If you haven’t, it shouldn’t make much of a difference in terms of watching the film. Still worth reading. Nevertheless the theme of ‘fascist Nixonian repression’ that is present in the novel appears very similar to what the United States is going through now. It makes great sense for Paul Thomas Anderson to adapt the story into a scenario fit for the present and with themes of extremism between the left and the right and physical clashes between them that mirror what’s happening today. It also succeeds in adding comedic elements to the film. This is nothing short of an accomplishment.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners

I have to say the 2020’s is the decade the horror movie genre is finally getting its overdue respect. One film of this year to add to its respect is Sinners. It’s more than just vampires and evil spirits. It’s folk legends, music, vampirism and the theme of racism that’s mixed into this story that makes this film a masterpiece. Usually film companies save the films with the best Oscar chances for December. This past summer delivered one for this history books!

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

This year, the favorites to win the Oscars appears to be more solid than most years. Also this year, it’s an even balance in both the major categories and the technical categories of solid favorites and potential upsetters. They’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

How about that? In a category Disney or Pixar win most of the time, they’ve only won once in the 2020’s. This decade has seen a lot of film studios deliver an Oscar-winning film. This year, it looks to be Sony Pictures Animation in cooperation with Netflix. A movie about a K-pop trio who has what it takes to slay demons is the most winning animated film this year. Its wins at this year’s Annie Awards was even ten-for-ten! Hard to see any rivalry in this category.

BEST CASTING

Should Win And Will Win: Francine Maisler – Sinners

This is the newest Oscar category. The Oscar gets awarded to the casting director and this award is boosted by having the Casting Director branch of the Academy that opened in 2013 and now totals 160 in 2026 and can now finally choose the nominees fort this category. With this being the debut year for this Oscar category, there are only a few awards shows that give out this award. There’s the Critics Choice, the BAFTAs, the Astras, there’s the SAG Award for Best Acting Ensemble which can have some impact and the profession’s guild, the Casting Society of America, has their Artios Awards. Maybe there will be more next year. Most of these awards have given the win to Sinners. It would not surprise me if Francine Maisler makes history in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win:  Kate Hawley – Frankenstein

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win:  The Perfect Neighbor

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Frankenstein

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win:  “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau – Frankenstein

BEST SOUND

Will Win: F1: The Movie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will Win: All The Empty Rooms

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be some shockers but mostly clear favorites. Nevertheless it’s the way every year that the Oscars are not immune to upsets. For this section, I will only limit myself to five potential shockers for Sunday night

  • Sean Penn from One Battle After Another winning Best Supporting Actor.
  • Autumn Durald Arkapaw winning Best Cinematography for Sinners.
  • Mr. Nobody Against Putin winning Best Documentary.
  • Sentimental Value (Norway) winning Best International Feature Film (Also my Should Win pick).
  • “I Lied To You” from Sinners winning Best Original Song.

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. It may have come late in the year, but it’s a good thing as you’ll have warmer weather for your Oscar parties.

Oscars 2025 Best Picture Reviews: Part Four

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

It seems like this decade, there always seems to be at least one foreign language film that gets a Best Picture nomination. This year, there are two films. Both are nominated for Best Picture and Best International Feature Film. Their shared nominations should make for an interesting rivalry.

Both films are different in both the language, genre and theme of the story. Both films are also excellent in getting their story to connect with the audience. Here is my look at the Brazilian film The Secret Agent and the Norwegian film Sentimental Value.

The Secret Agent (O Agente Secreto)

It’s interesting how Brazil won the Best International Feature Oscar last year for I’m Still Here and it looks heavily poised to do it again this year. It’s also interesting that just like I’m Still Here, it has the subject of the dictatorship Brazil was under from 1964 to 1985. It was a military dictatorship that formed after a coup d’etat and it committed its biggest power and intimidation during the 1970’s. There were kidnappings and murders of many people who ranged from political rivals to intellects to dissidents. While I’m Still Here is based on a true story, this film tells of a fictional story. This story is of a former college professor named Armando who goes into hiding in his hometown of Recife in 1977 during Carnival. He had already lost his wife who was also an intellect, his 7 year-old son has to be raised by his in-laws, and his hiding place where he gets his refuge has other dissidents including Angolan War refugees. He has to adopt a new name, Marcelo, and hold a behind-the-scenes government job to avoid being killed by a hitman. The whole time, he senses a hitman is after him and he finds the frustration of it hard to deal with. To add to it, his city records job allows him to find out information about his own mother, whom he remembers very faintly.

It’s not just hiding out from assassination but as corrupt leaders are in Recife. They’re first called to the city as a human leg was found in the carcass of a shark. One of the leaders has a chance meeting with Armando at the city’s records office he works at. He tries to offer him friendship and protection, but Armando is turned off his arrogance. Especially after he calls his friend a Nazi. During that time, word does hit an executive in Sao Paulo whom had an altercation with Armando years ago and has a vendetta against him. Armando feels his days are numbered and feels he has to make his testimony recorded by a close friend, Elza, who runs a resistance network and owns a movie theatre. It’s after the recording is made that the friend reveals he has a contract killing against him. Just as an assassin has been hired in Sao Paulo to go to Recife and kill him. This is all flashed back as a history student in the present comes across news stories and recordings of Elza and her network and compiles it for Armando’s son who works at the blood clinic that now takes up the former location of the movie theatre.

The film also mixes a lot of ironies and connections to others with the film. There’s the leg in the shark around the time of Jaws being in cinemas. That leg and Jaws in theatres promotes a lot of ridiculous ‘Hairy Leg’ stories published in the newspapers. There’s the civic records job Armando has while he’s in hiding and he can take advantage of job to access records of the information of his mother whom he faintly remembers. There’s a cinema showing Jaws run by Elza of the resistance network who takes the time to record Armando’s account of why he’s being hunted down. There’s Flavia accessing the mp3 of that recording and putting it on the USB which she gives to his son Fernando who now works at the blood clinic where that cinema used to be, and where Fernando even saw Jaws with his grandfather. Like Armando with his mother, Fernando has faint memories of his father. Flavia helps his to understand him better.

This is a unique story. The story of a man in a corrupt country who knows he’s being hunted down is full of omens of a possible death. It starts as when he first arrives in Recife and sees the body of a would-be robber at the gas station. It continues as he sees suspicious costumes in preparation for Carnival. Even of other incidents of death and nightmares got him fearing the worst. The story also adds in some humor with the leg found in the shark and while Jaws is in theatres adding humor of ridiculous news stories about ‘Hairy Leg.’ Even the leg thrown back into the ocean and it being rediscovered by a gay couple adds to the humor. There are times when the story gets confusing as we see the film often go to scenes in the present of student Flavia researching all this information about Armando and you often wonder what it’s about. It’s at the end after we see the past played out and Flavia discovering all the information that it’s to be on a USB as a gift to his son Fernando who’s now a blood clinic worker. It’s almost like the story is making peace with the past as an average college student helps Fernando get to know the father the father he never knew. Even how we see other men gunned down by the hired assassin but only learn of Armando’s assassination days after through a newspaper research from Flavia leaves us thinking maybe those scenes played out in the film for the better.

This film is an accomplishment for writer/director Kleber Mendonca Filho. Although it’s hard to understand why a story about a man being pursued by assassins in Brazil during a dictatorship would add in some bizarre humor and a subplot of a severed leg, Filho succeeds in making this story work. In an interview, Filho intended for this story not just to be about a man on the run but also about life in Brazil. He wanted to capture both the positive and the negative sides of living in Brazil during a time of a staunch dictatorship. He presents what is a fictional story of a man on the run from a possible political assassination, but it’s presented like a story that mirrors what it was like at that time. Armando could represent so many real-life people who were victims of this tyranny. The film also reminds us even as people were limited in their opportunities and no one was immune to being killed, people still swam in beaches, people still celebrated Carnival, couple still had sex in the parks at night. I feel he does a good job of making the film as much about life in Brazil as it is a story of a man knowing he will be killed soon. Even as it goes to the present with Flavia and Fernando showing the democratized Brazil and their lives, Filho does capture the times as well as he tells the story.

This film is also the breakthrough for actor Wagner Moura. Wagner has had an extensive career in Brazil but he’s also been seen in popular fare like 2014’s Rio, I Love You, 2022’s The Grey Man and 2024’s Civil War. In this film, he not only plays Armando in 1977 but also Fernando in 2025. Playing both the father who fears for his life and the son who’s able to live a life without fear is an excellent performance. His acting is less about being showy and about telling the story. Even in his moments of silence, you can sense his feelings. It’s no wonder it’s received a lot of acclaim. The film doesn’t develop too well on the performances of the supporting actors but if there is one supporting performance that stands out, it’s Tania Maria as Dona Sebastiana: the landlady who works to hide other people hiding out from other possible political killings. At first, she comes off as a colorful simple character but it’s when Armando leaves that she really shines in the monolog of how life is difficult but there is still hope for the better. Carlos Francisco is also good as the grandfather who is unhappy with the death of his daughter and fears for both the lives of Armando and Fernando.

This film first caught attention when it achieved a huge amount of buzz after the Cannes Film Festival. Moura won Best Actor, Filho won Best Director, the FIPRESCI Prize and the Prix des Cinemas Art et Essai and was nominated for the Palme d’Or. The film has also won major prizes like the Best International Film awards with the National Board of Review, Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards.

The Secret Agent is as much an intriguing look at Brazil back in the 70’s as it is an intriguing story of a man who’s the target of a political regime. It mixes drama with dark humor and tells of a story that appears to be about making resolve with the past. A past Brazil is struggling to heal from.

Sentimental Value (Affeksjonsverdi)

If there’s any film that threatens to beat out The Secret Agent for the Best International Feature film Oscar, it’s this film. This film is a complete polar opposite of the former. This Norwegian film tells a story of a family of wounds reopening and of issues unresolved. It’s not just an issue of torn family ties but also conflicts of the arts. It all starts with the Borg sisters’ death of their mother and their estranged father Gustav, a film director who owns the house, possibly being resold. As the sisters are going through grief, they have the added difficulty of the father returning and the hard feelings they feel towards him. Nora continues to harbor bitterness while Agnes tries to get a better understanding of him. Nora’s bitterness is so bad, she refused a role in his latest film work months earlier which goes to an American actress named Rachel Kemp. The film is an attempt from Gustav to revive his fading career and is now shooting while Nora and Agnes are trying to sort out things after their mother’s death. You can understand why this would be the source of a lot of family friction.

The film isn’t just about an estranged father re-entering his daughter’s lives at the most inconvenient time. The issue of how a daughter who grew up to be a theatre actress senses she’s shunned by her filmmaking father. He never once saw her act on stage. That adds to the friction and also has a lot to do with why Nora has more animosity than Agnes towards the father and may explain why she rejected the role. His revelation of how he rejects theatre even adds to the friction of the hard feelings. It takes the other two to help Nora achieve her resolve. First, it’s Agnes who does research on her father and his family background which includes revelations of his mother dealing with the torture of Nazi soldiers as a member of the resistance during World War II. Since the lead role is the same first name as her grandmother, it’s as she studies the torture her grandmother endured and how she passed her trauma onto her father is how she understands the film is a telling of the past he and his family went through. It’s as Rachel continuously goes through the role with great difficulty and has a conversation with Nora that she feels the role is more suited for Nora and for her. It’s there Rachel sends the message to Gustav that Nora was meant for the role. Even her struggles with trying to speak her lines in the Norwegian language in the role sends that message. It’s through art that family friction happens and it’s through art that healing is achieved. The theme of art as both a divider and reuniter is as much a theme of the story as World War II causing wounds that hurt long after the war has ended and even wounds that hurt loved ones even after the death of those who were hurt. Those themes are a unique way of telling this story of hurt and healing.

This film is an excellent work from director Joachim Trier. In Norway, he made a name for himself for directing three films that were part of the ‘Oslo trilogy’ which focused on the periods of life of certain people in Oslo. The only one of which I saw was The Worst Person In The World. For those who have seen all three films of the Oslo Trilogy, it will tempt some to think Trier added in a fourth film. Most notably since it’s set in Oslo, it’s another story he co-wrote with his collaborator Eskil Vogt and it features many of the actors he commonly collaborates with. This however is different. Firstly, Anders Danielsen Lie, who had leading roles in the trilogy film, has a supporting role in this film. He’s more in the background as Nora’s romantic interest. Secondly, this is a story where the arts are a theme to the film and are as a source of both friction and healing. It took a death and a film role of the father’s mother to help his daughter heal the wounds caused by a past separation. This is a great form of storytelling and it plays out very well in the film.

This film is also known for its standout acting. The biggest standout is lead actress Renate Reinsve as Nora. Already, Reinsve is being hailed as the greatest Norwegian actress since Liv Ullmann. Her performance as an actress daughter who’s thrown into family friction and how it affects her acting has a lot of dimension and we’re able to feel Nora’s feelings of anger and hurt. Also excellent is Stellan Skarsgard as Gustav. His portrayal of the father who knows he hurt his daughters and seeks to make resolve after their mother’s death is another excellent performance and it’s through the silent moments you can sense his thoughts. Inge Ibsdotter Lilleaas is also great in her supporting role as the more forgiving Agnes. It’s her performance as the one who’s trying to help solve the mystery who helps to add to the theme of resolve and forgiveness. Also great is Elle Fanning. Although she’s the one who speaks the least Norwegian, it’s her performance as the American actress Rachel who is able to also help Nora heal and eventually accept the role.

This film has received a lot of awards acclaim before this year’s awards season. Back during the Cannes Film Festival, it was nominated for the Palme d’Or and Joachim Trier win the Grand Prix award. The film was also nominated for eight European Film Awards and won six.

Sentimental Value is a deep film of trying to mend family ties and generational trauma. Even though it’s in Norwegian, many people can relate to the messages and emotions conveyed in the film. That’s what most makes this film worth watching.

That completes my fourth review of the Best Picture nominees. All that’s remaining are the last two nominees to review.