The 2025 Academy Awards are taking place later on this year: March 15th. My assumption is the broadcast of the Winter Olympic Games is what is holding it up this year. It has been done before that the Oscars would move to a later time to make room for the Winter Olympics. Conan O’Brien is back as host. He did such a good job last year, they made him host again this year. Makes sense that they have a comedian or the host of a late night show do the hosting. They’re normally the best at working it.

So now I finally have my predictions for all the categories. This year, I was able to see enough films to make up 100 of this year’s nominations. Many times, I felt I could have seen more. Still an impressive lot. So without wasting any more time, here are my predictions to win and even a few Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, kudos to Olly Gibbs for delivering another excellent Best Picture nominees poster. He knows how to do it! This year, the ten Best Picture nominees have the biggest monopoly of the nominations I’ve seen in years. Eighty of the 125 nomination! That’s more than 60% right there! Sinners and their record-setting total of nominations has what averages out to be one of every eight nominations. Interestingly enough, the second-most nominated film One Battle After Another amassed thirteen nominations: one short of the old record! For acting nominations, Sinners, One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value combined have eleven of the twenty acting nominations and the rest is nine nominations among nine films! Despite all this dominating of nominations, they’re quite well-spread out. None of the Best Picture nominees has less than four nominations. For the Best Picture race, the year looks to be the race between the strong summer sleeper contender and the winter surprise hit, but that will be decided on the 15th. So here are my short reviews and my prediction for Best Picture:

Bugonia- It’s something that of the three films by Yorgos Lanthimos that have been nominated for Best Picture, Emma Stone has acted in all three! This film has less buzz than the other two: The Favourite and Poor Things. The other two were better as they mixed bizarre humor with the scenarios. This also mixes humor but having a present setting seems odd for a Lanthimos film. It’s lack of buzz is why I feel it won’t win.

F1- I don’t know if you feel the same way but I like seeing a summer movie get nominated for Best Picture. The story and the acting were way better than most summer movies. It’s not just any movie about auto racing. It’s a movie the auto racing federation fully endorsed and includes actual F1 racers including some of the best. As for a contender for Best Picture, its only other three nominations are in the technical categories. It’s chances of winning this category are slim to none.

Frankenstein- If there’s one director who you can trust to do an excellent new adaptation to the Frankenstein story, it’s Guillermo del Toro. It’s an excellent thriller to watch and you will get caught up in the drama. This film has enough qualities to deserve its Best Picture nomination but this year, the Academy is not up for thrillers such as these. On top of it, there have been other thrillers that can compete with this.

Hamnet- This is an excellent film and an excellent story of love, happiness, loss, tragedy and healing. The film is less a historical docudrama and more of a story of how one woman deals with the heartbreak of loss and how she finds healing in the play her husband creates. This film does have a lot of qualities worthy for it to win Best Picture, but this is a tough year for films like these to contend.

Marty Supreme- At first, you wouldn’t think a film about ping-pong in the 1950’s would make for a hit movie but Marty Supreme does it! A lot of it is the underdog story of a ping pong player who constantly gets himself into trouble and embarrassment to beat the odds. A lot of it is also Timothee Chalamet’s performance. The direction from Josh Safdie definitely helps a lot. It is a good contender for the Best Picture win but there are other films with bigger chances.

One Battle After Another- This year, there doesn’t seem to be as many political films. This film has to be the most political. A mixed-race girl whose white supremacist father wants her dead. A former renegade who’s trying to protect her in the name of her mother and his girlfriend. Definitely a dramatic comedy that will keep you intrigued. It’s the story and Paul Thomas Anderson’s know-how in working a story like this that I make it my Will Win pick.

The Secret Agent- It’s something that this is the second straight year a Brazilian film is nominated for Best Picture! It’s deserving as it mixes humor with the story and keeps the drama without dropping the sincerity of the film’s ending. However for a foreign language film to win Best Picture, it has to really stand out in the competition and this film is missing that quality.

Sentimental Value- The increase in the number of foreign-language films nominated for Best Picture is easy to understand if you see the film. This film is excellent for its storytelling and its acting. It’s a drama of a theme many can relate to and mixes the theme of art in family conflict. It’s an excellent drama but for Best Picture, it is up against tougher competition.

Sinners- If there’s one film of 2025 that deserves to be called a masterpiece, this is it. A horror story that blends music, folk legends, the supernatural, demon spirits, and the theme of racism and Jim Crow laws. Definitely a story that’s unforgettable and grabs your attention from start to finish. That’s why I declare this film my Should Win pick and my pick for most likely to upset.

Train Dreams- The film feels like a nice piece of Americana. Just as much as the novel it’s based on feels like a piece of Americana. It does a great job of giving the audience the feel of the area it’s set in as it tells the story. As for its Best Picture chances, it doesn’t have a good shot as there is tougher competition.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

The Best Director category is one contest where it is too tough to call. Two great directors directing the two most lauded films of 2025. One is set in the past while another is an adapted story set to the present. Both of them mix politics into their stories. Both of them have something to say. It’s a tough call but I think Paul Thomas Anderson will take it. It’s a career of almost 30 years that started with his 1996 debut Hard Eight. He first caught the Academy’s eye with 1997’s Boogie Nights where he got his first Oscar nomination for screenplay. He got his first Best Director nomination for 2007’s There Will Be Blood. Further acclaim would grow with Inherent Vice, Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza. Many cinephiles look to One Battle After Another to finally be his time.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

The Academy has some interesting factoids about how picky and choosy they are about awarding certain Oscars. One out of every three Best Actress Oscar wins have gone to actresses before their 30th birthday. The most recent, Mikey Madison, was last year. As of today, only one Best Actor Oscar win went to an actor before his 30th birthday. The most recent, Adrien Brody, is that actor but he won for The Pianist in 2003. Last year, Timothy Chalamet had a chance to break that record with A Complete Unknown. Although he can’t break that record as he just turned 30 in December, his performance is Marty Supreme looks poised to do that. The only thing is there was surprise at SAG’s Actor awards with Michael B. Jordan winning for Sinners.

Not only has Jordan’s win been seen as a big boost, but lately Chalamet’s talk has been making headlines for negative reasons. It wasn’t just his comments on ballet and opera. Some time ago, he said Hollywood stars should stop being pretentious. That can boost Jordan’s chances of winning. Even without the eyebrow-raising talk of Chalamet, Michael’s performance as two twin brothers of differing personalities and one being possessed by the spirit is excellent work deserving of the Oscar. Chalamet still remains as my pick for the one most likely to upset.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

I am going to make my write-up here short because I’m that confident about here win. She’s that clear of a favorite because this happens to be the best actress performance of the year. In a film about a play inspired by a tragedy to William Shakespeare, it’s the performance of the actress playing his wife is what makes the film. Jessie’s performance of Agnes Shakespeare is loaded with dimension and will touch you. Her performance sets the mood of the film and gives character to a famous playwright’s wife whom few know much of. Her performance of going from having the joy of life to hurting from tragedy to a triumph of healing at the end is just completely remarkable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

It’s often the case that one of the toughest categories to predict the winner is in the supporting acting categories. And understandably so. It’s a question of which supporting performance stole the show? Which performance qualifies as lead? Which performance brought the most during its short time? It’s hard to decide. This year’s contenders don’t make it any easier. Despite winning the SAG Actor award, I have a feeling Sean Penn won’t win. He’s won two Oscars before. I also feel his One Battle After Another co-star Benicio del Toro won’t win because he won back in 2000 for Traffic.

I feel the win will go to the Golden Globe winner, Stellan Skarsgård. Skarsgård could arguably qualify to make a running for lead actor. His performance as the father trying to make amends with his relationships with his daughters and his film work is both intense and touching. He really magnifies someone who’s both flawed and troubled, but seeks to make things right, despite his shortcomings. I feel he should win it.

Should Win and Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons

It’s interesting in this category. A mixed bag of winners throughout this season. Wunmi taking the BAFTA, Teyana taking the Golden Globe, and Amy taking the SAG and Critics Choice. I have to go with Amy. It’s easy to think that she, not Julia Garner, is the lead actress. She does a great job of playing a villain who’s both manipulative and threatening. She does a convincing job of playing a villain who knows how to instill fear in a child and mess with adults. Her performance has a lot to do with why Weapons is a box office hit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

I’m sure most of you have not read the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland. If you haven’t, it shouldn’t make much of a difference in terms of watching the film. Still worth reading. Nevertheless the theme of ‘fascist Nixonian repression’ that is present in the novel appears very similar to what the United States is going through now. It makes great sense for Paul Thomas Anderson to adapt the story into a scenario fit for the present and with themes of extremism between the left and the right and physical clashes between them that mirror what’s happening today. It also succeeds in adding comedic elements to the film. This is nothing short of an accomplishment.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners

I have to say the 2020’s is the decade the horror movie genre is finally getting its overdue respect. One film of this year to add to its respect is Sinners. It’s more than just vampires and evil spirits. It’s folk legends, music, vampirism and the theme of racism that’s mixed into this story that makes this film a masterpiece. Usually film companies save the films with the best Oscar chances for December. This past summer delivered one for this history books!

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

This year, the favorites to win the Oscars appears to be more solid than most years. Also this year, it’s an even balance in both the major categories and the technical categories of solid favorites and potential upsetters. They’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

How about that? In a category Disney or Pixar win most of the time, they’ve only won once in the 2020’s. This decade has seen a lot of film studios deliver an Oscar-winning film. This year, it looks to be Sony Pictures Animation in cooperation with Netflix. A movie about a K-pop trio who has what it takes to slay demons is the most winning animated film this year. Its wins at this year’s Annie Awards was even ten-for-ten! Hard to see any rivalry in this category.

BEST CASTING

Should Win And Will Win: Francine Maisler – Sinners

This is the newest Oscar category. The Oscar gets awarded to the casting director and this award is boosted by having the Casting Director branch of the Academy that opened in 2013 and now totals 160 in 2026 and can now finally choose the nominees fort this category. With this being the debut year for this Oscar category, there are only a few awards shows that give out this award. There’s the Critics Choice, the BAFTAs, the Astras, there’s the SAG Award for Best Acting Ensemble which can have some impact and the profession’s guild, the Casting Society of America, has their Artios Awards. Maybe there will be more next year. Most of these awards have given the win to Sinners. It would not surprise me if Francine Maisler makes history in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win:  Kate Hawley – Frankenstein

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win:  The Perfect Neighbor

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Frankenstein

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win:  “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau – Frankenstein

BEST SOUND

Will Win: F1: The Movie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will Win: All The Empty Rooms

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be some shockers but mostly clear favorites. Nevertheless it’s the way every year that the Oscars are not immune to upsets. For this section, I will only limit myself to five potential shockers for Sunday night

• Sean Penn from One Battle After Another winning Best Supporting Actor.
• Autumn Durald Arkapaw winning Best Cinematography for Sinners.
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin winning Best Documentary.
• Sentimental Value (Norway) winning Best International Feature Film (Also my Should Win pick).
• “I Lied To You” from Sinners winning Best Original Song.

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. It may have come late in the year, but it’s a good thing as you’ll have warmer weather for your Oscar parties.