DISCLAIMER: There was an incomplete post like this yesterday. The reason was I was editing from my smartphone and intended to update the draft, not publish the blog. It published anyways. This blog here is my complete blog for Oscar predictions.
The Academy Awards are here. I’ve seen enough movies to make up 82 of the nominations this year. It was quite the year with lots to offer and a lot of things that appeared guaranteed weren’t. So without further ado, let’s get on with the predictions:
BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP
You all saw my three summaries of all nine nominees. Doing shorter summaries were better for me this year. Maybe next year I won’t be so busy or have as many ailments. So here goes for predicting the winner:
-Arrival- This is the first movie about aliens to be nominated for an Oscar. A very smart film that was loaded with buzz when it first came out. However its awards excitement faded over time as did its Best Picture chances.
-Fences- I like it when I see a celebrated play brought to the big screen. Especially around Oscar time. I felt it was done excellently. However it is up in this category against meatier competition. This is one category I think Fences won’t win.
-Hacksaw Ridge- Very rarely does a pro-religion movie have a chance for Best Picture. Hacksaw Ridge is the pro-religion film in the past 15 years most deserving of a nomination. However it does have some formulaic elements that come up every now and then and it has better chances in the technical categories instead of Best Picture.
-Hell Or High Water- This year’s ‘summer survivor.’ Those like me who missed out on it during the summer missed out on a gem. A crime story that’s funny and entertaining, but smart too. However I’m not too optimistic in its Oscar chances here.
-Hidden Figures- This movie started with very little Oscar buzz at first but it increased as rapport from the film–from both critics and audience alike– grew. It seems like it doesn’t have good chances to win Best Picture but it could pull a surprise. A very slim chance of that but it is likely.
-La La Land- What can I say? People have been embracing it in droves. Why? Because people just really like a good musical? Because of its feel? Because it reminds one of the charm of old Hollywood? Whatever it is, it’s made it the frontrunner that looks hard to beat. That’s why it’s my Will Win pick. the biggest reason why I hope it win is because last year I said: “One more Best Picture winner that fails to gross $100 million and I’m done Oscarwatching.” I don’t know what made me carry on even after Spotlight won– and it didn’t even make $50 million— but La La Land makes me glad I did.
-Lion- I’m no expert in Oscar trivia but I think this is the first Australian film to be nominated for Best Picture, and a deserving nominee. It’s won over everyone I know who has seen it. It may have had better Best Picture chances in another year.
-Manchester By The Sea- This is a film that was loaded with buzz at the beginning of the Oscar race and looked to be the one film that could beat out La La Land. The buzz faded over time, despite how great the film was. May have an outside chance but not too likely.
-Moonlight- This is one film that proves that less is more. Less dialogue, more of a feel of what’s happening. Less showy characters, more knowing who the characters are. Less singing and dancing, more feel for the music in the film. This is the surprise of the Oscar race that was able to let it speak for itself. I know it faces a hell of a fight against La La Land to win Best Picture but I give this my Should Win pick.
Should Win – Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Will Win – Damien Chazelle, La La Land
I felt that Moonlight is the better picture and Jenkins did an excellent job of directing but I know this is the year of La La Land and it’s Damien Chazelle’s to take.
Should Win and Will Win – Denzel Washington, Fences
These past two years saw the rise of the #OscarsSoWhite outcry. This year there are seven non-white acting nominees. Denzel may have won twice before but his performance as Troy Maxson has been getting loads of buzz and even surprised favorite Casey Affleck at the SAG Awards. The only way I can see Casey winning instead of Denzel is if the Academy doesn’t want to make this his third Oscar, and it is a possibility.
Should Win – Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Will Win – Emma Stone, La La Land
Some are saying that Isabelle Huppert looks to be the biggest threat to Emma Stone’s win. It is a possibility but I think Casey Affleck beating out Denzel appears more likely. It’s Emma’s to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win and Will Win – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Mahershala Ali may have only been seen in the first part of Moonlight but there was something about his performance of Juan that stood out like no other supporting performance this year. Was it Juan’s charisma? Was it his silent coolness? Whatever it is, it’s what made Mahershala stand out this year among all the supporting actor performances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win and Will Win – Viola Davis, Fences
What can I say? If there’s anyone who can steal the show from Denzel, it’s Viola Davis. She reminded us very well that Fences wasn’t just about Troy Maxson. It was about Rose too.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win – Taylor Sheridan, Hell Or High Water
Will Win – Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
A lot of people are expecting Damien Chazelle to do it again here but I feel that Kenneth Lonergan will take it for one of the best scripts of the year. It was a film that cuts deep and doesn’t water down.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win and Will Win – Barry Jenkins and Terell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight
It all started with a short story by McCraney, then Jenkins developed a screenplay, and now it’s one of the best of the year. No stopping it.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should Win: Kubo And The Two Strings
Will Win: Zootopia
Kubo was the best at taking your imagination away this year. However in comparison to frontrunner Zootopia, it isn’t really all that family friendly and that I believe is where it will hurt it. Zootopia was without a doubt this year’s crowd charmer. Besides this is the one category Disney wants to take year after year.
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Will Win: La La Land
Let’s face it. Any movie that shows off the classic areas in Los Angeles and even meshes it into the present will win this category.
Will Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: O. J. Simpson: Made In America
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Tom Cross, La La Land
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Salesman director Asghar Farhadi has been the subject of news as it was believed Donald Trump’s travel ban could prevent him from attending the Oscars. Whatever the situation, he boycotted the Oscars in protest of Trump’s policies.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: A Man Called Ove
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
I’m sure we’ve all been waiting for the longest time for a musical of original composition. Especially the Academy.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Should Win: ‘Audition (The Fools Who Dream)’, La La Land
Will Win: ‘City Of Stars’, La La Land
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Will Win: La La Land
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: The Jungle Book
I think the reason why Star Wars lost this category last year is because having the best digital effects of the year is expected for a Star Wars movie. That’s where The Jungle Book has the edge for this year.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
Will Win: Joe’s Helmet
JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS
I did this for the first time last year. I want to do it again this year.:
- Moonlight wins Best Picture
- Casey Affleck wins Best Actor for Manchester By The Sea
- Kubo And The Two Strings wins Best Animated Feature
- Arrival wins Best Adapted Screenplay
- Greig Fraser wins Best Cinematography for Lion.
And there you have it. My predictions for Hollywood’s night of nights. Let’s see how Jimmy Kimmel does as host this time.