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My Predictions For The 2023 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Once again it’s another year of seeing all the Best Pictures nominees before Oscar night! How do I do it? Actually how do I afford it? Anyways the Oscars are again to be held on the second Sunday of March. Jimmy Kimmel is back as the host. Its’ so refreshing to have a host back! Once again, I make my predictions for who I think will win. Here’s who I think will be the winners of the 2023 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Just when I thought Olly Gibbs and his tradition to do the image of the Oscar nominees ended last year, he does it again. Maybe he just likes doing it for fun! And of the love he gets for it!

Now about my blogging of Best Pictures reviews, a funny thing happened. When I started, I intended to divide the reviews into a blog of four and two blogs of three. Before I finished the first blog, I did a Word check for spelling, grammar and the word count. Each time I did a single movie review, I noticed each review was either close to a total of a thousand words or had already surpassed it. I published that four-review blog at first but as I was working on the second blog, I noticed the reviews for all three films were over a thousand words. I figured having blogs of three or more reviews would be too much to digest. Like seriously, would you read a blog that becomes over five-thousand words long? I didn’t think so. That’s why I did the single movie blogs after that! Glad I came to my senses!

Now the nitty gritty of the ten nominated pictures. Did you know if you only see the Best Picture nominees alone, you will have seen the films that make up a total of 71 nominations? That makes up almost 60% of the nominations this year! Four are comedies, four are depictions of people that existed or events that happened, most are releases from late in the year, two were the biggest hits of the summer, three are directed by women, and two were the biggest darlings of the 2023 Cannes Film Festival.

The Best Picture nominees have some interesting nomination statistics. All but one of the ten had their script nominated in the screenplay category while five of the films’ directors make up all the Best Director nominees. Eight of the films have acting nominations and 16 of the 20 nominated acting performances come from Best Picture contenders. The films make up all the Best Film Editing nominations. The nominated films own four of the five nominations for Cinematography, Costuming, Production Design and Original Score. The combined ten-set also own three of the five nominees in Original Song (with two Barbie songs nominated), Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. The only category outside of Animated Feature, Documentary Feature or the short films categories where none of them got a nomination is in Visual Effects.

Without further ado, here are my opinions of the Oscar chances of the ten Best Picture nominees with links to my reviews in the title:

American Fiction –  In my review of the film, I declared it the best comedy of the year. It is a funny sad comedy. It lampoons the expectations of the white-dominated “liberal elite” on black literature or black arts. It taunts how most white people like to eat up certain common depictions of African-Americans, including negative ones. Monk and his plugging of the release of his pandering “gangsta” novel showcases it all well. It’s not an angry satire which one would expect from Spike Lee, but the comedy is sensible and you’ll laugh at the truthfulness. Despite how good it is, there are films with bigger buzz and bigger chances of winning the big award.

Anatomy Of A Fall – This is a courtroom drama story with a lot of intrigue. A suspicious fatal fall, a wife who’s a public figure and a bisexual, a husband who suffered from depression, a blind son who looks like he was given a sheltered life, a prosecutor who looks determined to win the case, a defense team who wants to make the facts clear, and a dog that could hold the key to the truth. All of which make for a story that will get one intrigued and all a great drama. I found the film worthy of a Best Picture win, but there are other films that have more of what it takes.

Barbie – This movie definitely had the biggest fanfare and the biggest advertising I’ve seen in a long time. As the movie made its way into theatres, it became beloved by critics and became the biggest box office hit of the summer! It even had enough endurance to make its way into the awards accolades. As you know, it got a good amount of Oscar nods but snubbed in the two most anticipated categories: Actress for Robbie and Director for Gerwig. I’m sure it will win two Oscars but its Best Picture chances faded fast.

The Holdovers – When was the last time a Christmas-themed film was nominated for Best Picture? Seems like eons ago. This is a charming story of three lonely people at a prep school spending Christmas together and it ended up being the best thing for all three. The film has its heartbreaking moments and its humorous moments. They mix well together and they give the other its own time. The film ends with the feeling of hope for all three. It’s one of the best comedies of the year but I see it having rough competition to win Best Picture.

Killers Of The Flower Moon –  Scorsese does it again! He takes a moment of historic infamy in the United States and makes an excellent depiction of the people and events. I don’t think it was worth being 3 1/2 hours long but it was a good story that keeps one intrigued and helped Scorsese nab his tenth Best Director nomination. Also despite Hollywood being known for its bad depictions of Native Americans, this film did an excellent respectful depiction of them. Although it looks like Best Pictures material, it’s missing a key nomination. This is the only one of the Best Picture nominees whose screenplay wasn’t nominated. I feel that will hurt its Best Picture chances.

Maestro – Biography films are usually loved by the Academy. It’s no wonder a film about Leonard Bernstein should appeal to the Academy. And for Bradley Cooper to direct, co-write and play Bernstein himself to boot! One thing this film succeeds in doing is it keeps from being the common biography film. It’s also about his wife Felicia, definitely about his music and it shows a hidden side to Bernstein most never new. This film is worthy of the Best Pictures win but there’s one other that has the right stuff.

Oppenheimer – You can describe J. Robert Oppenheimer however you see him. Brilliant genius? Imaginative? A pioneer? A hero? A killer? A communist? An unfaithful husband? An arrogant man? You be the judge. This film does more than show Oppenheimer and him leading the project to create the atomic bomb. It is three-dimensional in depicting the person. It does a great job of capturing his imagination. It also shows the aftermath of his work and how it haunts him for the rest of his life.

I make this film my Should Win and Will Win pick. Also I have to say if it wins, it will be refreshing to see a blockbuster back as the Best Pictures winner. To think the last time a film that grossed $100 million won Best Pictures is 2012’s Argo! Yeah, that long ago!

Past Lives – It’s very rare for a film about a slow, mostly quiet story can win people over. Often a story like that gets dismissed as “boring.” Also it’s not often for a story of something distinct with one’s culture can be embraced by different people. This film succeeds in getting people engaged with a quiet story of childhood lovers reuniting and the Korean element of In-Yun added in engaging to filmgoers. I admire it for being a story that gets people engaged. The problem for winning Best Picture is its only other nomination is for the screenplay. That eliminates its chances of winning Best Pictures right there.

Poor Things – There seems like every Oscar season, there’s at least one Best Pictures contenders that’s either odd or absurd or eccentric, but charming. This is the film for this year. Yorgos Lanthimos knows how to take the absurd and turn it into a charming story. Here he takes a story that appears like Dr. Frankenstein meets female empowerment. It’s a film that’s sci-fi, absurdist drama, romance and comedy rolled into one. Although it seems like Oppenheimer is a lock to win Best Pictures, this film and it’s late buzz looks to be the Most Likely Upstter. Who knows? Best Pictures surprise wins have happened before.

The Zone Of Interest – Another darling of Cannes 2023 starring Sandra Huller. Must be her lucky year. Of all the Best Pictures contenders, this is a film whose biggest storytelling assets aren’t the actors or the script. It’s about what’s happening around them. It’s what’s happening behind the walls. It’s a story that appears to have simplistic scenes but when you look back, those scenes tell a lot more. Also while this is not a Holocaust film that gives you what you want in the end, it does send a strong message at the end of the Nazi’s eventual fate. Great film and a deserving Best Pictures nominee, but I feel it’s missing some qualities to win Best Pictures, like standout acting performances.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

We have a lot of super directors that are quite active. Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese and James Cameron come to mind. One director that should rank with them is British director Christopher Nolan. He’s had a wide array of films he directed to success. It started with 2001’s Memento, had his big Hollywood break with 2008’s The Dark Knight, taken further with 2011’s Inception and finally got his first Best Director nomination with 2017’s Dunkirk. I’m sure all of us can name at least one Nolan film we like. Finally he proves his mettle as Oppenheimer is the most renowned film of 2023. It’s won critics and audiences alike and has won the lion’s share of awards. Christopher Nolan’s time is finally now.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

There’s a quote from Leonard Bernstein — another person who’s portrayal in a film earned the actor a Best Actor nomination — that went approximately “Art shouldn’t answer questions. Rather art should provoke questions.” I believe that’s what Cillian Murphy does here in Oppenheimer. Without a doubt, he gets into the character of J. Robert Oppenheimer, but his portrayal leaves you questioning how you should see J. Robert. Should you see him as a hero? A killer? An unfaithful man? An arrogant person? A backstabber? The movie is about that, but it is Cillian’s performance that helps make it.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win: Lily Gladstone – Killers Of The Flower Moon
Will Win: Emma Stone – Poor Things

The buzz is all there. Lily Gladstone has won a ton of awards. Her performance of Mollie Burkhart who goes from loving wife to betrayed in the end had a lot to do with how great Killers Of The Flower Moon is. She even stole the show from Leonardo and made it her film. If she wins, she will become the first Native American actress to win an Oscar. Only thing is hot on her heels is Emma Stone in Poor Things. Emma’s performance of a woman with a baby’s brain who develops into a more empowered version of herself is also an excellent work. Emma has also clinched a few wins of her own like the Critics Choice and the Bafta. Something is telling me that despite Lily being highly favored, Emma will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Very often, an actor or actress who’s famous for notable roles will get a lot of renown for playing a character completely different from what you expect. Robert Downey Jr. may be recognized by face but he will become unrecognizable through his acting as you watch. Just like Cillian Murphy will make you question how to see J. Robert Oppenheimer, Downey Jr. will also make you question how to regard Lewis Strauss. Should you see him as an enemy of Oppenheimer’s? Is he jealous? Does he feel betrayed? Or through it all, does he still hold an admiration for him? Downey Jr. succeeds in doing all that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Performances in comedies commonly get the short end of the stick come Oscar time. Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance as Mary Lamb is deserving of the win. It often seems unorthodox for a heartbreaking scene to be shown in a comedy, but we get it when Mary has that moment of heartbreak as she hurts over the loss of her son. It’s one of the most heartbreaking scenes of the year, but The Holdovers still manages to be a comedy. Even Mary seems like a role fit for a comedy as she learns to live again as she’s reunited with her sister. It’s her transformations from starting off living her daily life to going to one extreme of emotions to the polar opposite at the end as why she deserves to win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Cord Jefferson – American Fiction

One of the most interesting things to happen in this category is the screenplay for Barbie had mostly received its awards and nominations in the Original screenplay category. A script based on a doll doesn’t seem like an adaptation of any kind. Despite that and despite winning the Critics Choice award in the Original category, weeks before the nominations were to be announced, they announced they would make a running in the Adapted category. The Barbie script succeeded in getting nominated.

Despite that, it’s still the script of American Fiction from Cord Jefferson that has won most of the awards and deserves to win. I mean the lack of proper representation of African Americans in the arts world is enough to disappoint people and even outrage some. Something makes me think if Spike Lee were to do his own adaptation of Erasure, it would be an angry drama. But Jefferson turns it into a comedy and lampoons the whole system of how the mostly-white liberal scene treats an obviously-pandering novel before release. The more Monk panders, the more buzz and renown he gets. Jefferson succeeds in making a story of a serious topic look like the circus it can be.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Justine Triet – Anatomy Of A Fall

If you’ve seen Anatomy Of A Fall. you too can get drawn into the story and never let go. It presents a fictional story you could see happening in real life and the big question of is the accused innocent or guilty? When you learn of the friction of the marriage, that will cause you to question even more. Meanwhile this is happening as the blind son doesn’t know what to think of his mother. Triet gives us a story that allows us to make our own judgement of the accused as well as through our judgement as the story goes, expose our own way of thinking and even possibly our prejudices. Even at the end, were still left with only our own judgement of Sandra as we reflect back. That’s why I feel she deserves to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

It’s usually in the major categories when I give my long-winded opinions. The only case I will give a long-winded opinion in the technical category section down below will be for the Animated Feature category. Only in very few categories where I feel I’m qualified to make such a judgement will you see me give a Should Win pick. So here are my picks for the technical winners:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This is the one technical Oscar category in which you’ll see me write a paragraph about since I’ve seen all three. For a look at my thoughts on all five, click here for my blog from yesterday. This year’s five contenders are a big mix. One is a Disney film or a Disney collaboration; it does seem like each year there need to be at least one Disney nominee. Two are foreign productions. One is from Netflix. Two are 2D animation and the three others with the latest 3D technology. Looking them over I give The Boy And The Heron my Should Win pick and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse my Will Win pick. The awards race has been a tight race between the two but I think the Spider-Verse film has the edge.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win and Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Should Win: Jacqueline Durran – Barbie
Will Win: Holly Waddington – Poor Things

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: 20 Days In Mariupol

BEST FILM EDITING

Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers Of The Flower Moon
Will Win: Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Zone Of Interest (United Kingdom)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell – Maestro

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
Will Win: “What Was I Made For” – Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: James Price, Shona Heath and Zsuzsa Mihalek – Poor Things

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Oppenheimer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Should Win and Will Win: The Creator

BEST AMINATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

Once again with my predictions comes six possible upsets that I most think can happen tomorrow night. Remember that despite the big awards buzz and predictions and awards clout, nothing is completely guaranteed. Here are the six biggest surprises I anticipate, and they’re listed in category order:

  • Lily Gladstone for Best Actress for Killers Of The Flower Moon
  • Tony McNamara for Best Adapted Screenplay for Poor Things.
  • The Boy And The Heron for Best Animated Feature
  • Jacqueline Durran for Best Costuming for Barbie
  • Robbie Robertson for Best Original Score for Killers Of The Flower Moon
  • Guardians of The Galaxy, Vol. 3 for Best Visual Effects

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Hopefully the show will run as smoothly as it went last year and without incident! I trust Jimmy Kimmel will do a good job like he did last year.

My Predictions For the 2022 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The date of this year’s Oscars have been moved up an extra two weeks from the 2021 awards. The pandemic is in the midst of dying down and more people are heading back to the theatres. This year was better for me for movie watching. I saw enough films to make up 93 of this year’s 125 nominations! I only streamed one contender this year and it was just yesterday!

This year’s Oscars are to be held on Sunday March 12th. Jimmy Kimmel returns to host for the first time in five years. What’s your guess the Will Smith slap will be in many of the jokes? Yes, it was a shocker last year, but I know the Will Smith/Chris Rock rivalry is something that goes way back! We can’t get enough of these Hollywood feuds, can we? The show promises to be good. Hope it’s not as long as last year’s. And to think last year they did all sorts.of tricks in an attempt to shorten it! Boy did it fail! Anyways this year’s Oscars should be enjoyable and those attending Oscar parties should have fun. So without further ado, here are my picks for the winners of the 2022 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

The annual tradition for Olly Gibbs to do an image of the ten Best Picture nominees is back for the tenth and last time! What can I say? All good things must come to an end! Great stuff with this year’s ten! And thanks for the great images over the years. I’m happy to have seen nine of the Best Picture nominees on the big screen. It always looks better on the big screen. I wrote two sets of reviews of the Best Picture nominees: one from All Quiet to Everything Everywhere; the other from The Fabelmans to Women Talking. In the meantime here are my opinions of the Oscar chances of the ten Best Picture nominees:

All Quiet On The Western Front –  Last year, West Side Story was the reboot of a former Best Picture winner to get nominated. This year, it’s All Quiet On The Western Front. It does seem odd for a World War I drama to get a reboot but after you see it, it makes sense. We live in a time of great cynicism of our leaders. Often we wonder what the point of war is all about. Is it about the people? Or the leaders’ egos? It comes at a good time now as Ukraine is undergoing a war all for the sake of a President’s lust for power. This is a film that is deserving to win Best Picture but there are others that have better chances.

Avatar: The Way Of Water –  The first Avatar movie was worthy of winning Best Picture, and it almost did! The sequel faced a challenge of bringing back the magic of the first Avatar while creating a story that differs from the first. The film succeeds in delivering a new story and returning the audience to the world they experienced watching the first. The thing is the film has a lot of technical nominations but is the only Best Picture nominee without a single acting, directing or writing nomination. It’s because of that I don’t consider it a favorite to win Best Picture.

The Banshees Of Inisherin– Normally the Academy turns up their nose to comedies. I find that funny because if you ask any actor, they will say comedy is the hardest thing to do! This year, there are two comedies that are frontrunners to win Best Picture. Additionally, both of the heavily-favored comedies have four acting nominations to boot! First up is The Banshees Of Inisherin. It starts as a story that seems boring; a lifelong friendship ended because one thinks the other is dull. As the story develops, the rivalry gets more intense and bizarre. Like why would someone with a grudge want to cut their fingers off? Its twists and turns and surprises all around make this a bizarre tragicomedy and the film I predict to be the Most Likely Upsetter to my pick to win.

Elvis – Is it possible.to make a movie about The King that looks like material that belongs on the big screen? Baz Luhrmann answers that with a big fat “Yes!” A lot of the best material of the film comes from the direction and creativity of Luhrmann. Top highlight, however, is the dead-on performance of Austin Butler. His performance of Elvis through the various stages of his life was eye-catching and would keep your attention. This film was loaded with Oscar buzz from the start but just like Power Of The Dog last year, its buzz faded fast.

Everything Everywhere All At Once –  I know I mentioned it’s very hard for comedies to get Oscar love. Well try a movie that involves going through various alternating universes. Doesn’t sound like a top Oscar contender, does it? Well, that’s what Everything Everywhere All At Once is! It’s a ‘film of the absurd,’ but a very entertaining one as Evelyn goes through her various alternate lives in entertaining style. Very well done and very entertaining. That’s why I give it my Should Win and Will Win pick!

The Fabelmans- Normally a film about a filmmaker as a child directed by that very filmmaker would first come across as egotistical. However we’re talking Steven Spielberg. For those whoever wondered what inspired his most thrilling and most remarkable works, there’s your answer. At a time when people have been so down about so many things happening in the world and even near where they live, the film is a reminder that the dream is worth shooting for. That having a great imagination can still go far. Even in a time of great pessimism right now.. Even during the most difficult times. A film like this would normally be considered worthy of Best Picture and it was a heavy favorite at one point, but it tuned out to be the biggest fader thanks to low box office results.

Tár – This is an accomplishment for director Todd Field. It seemed like he was bound to have a major Oscar contender any time soon, but it was a matter of waiting. Finally he does it with Tár. The cornerstone of the film is the performance of Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tár. It’s through her performance we’re drawn to a story of a musical conductor’s rise to the top and sudden downfall. It’s also Field’s direction that makes the film on of the best of the year. Despite it being great, there are other films that have better chances to win Best Picture.

Top Gun: Maverick – The norm for Hollywood sequels for big hits is to wait two years, possibly three. There have been other films with longer waits, but they’ve mostly been flops. Now a sequel for Top Gun 36 years after the original seems hard to buy. I know there’s a lot of rebooting happening, especially of entertainment from the 80’s, but would a sequel for Top Gun work after this much time? Tom Cruise, director Eric Kosinski and the dream team of writers proved that it can. It can create a believable story set in the present and bring back the excitement of the first with adding new flares. Exciting film to watch and may have good chances of winning Best Picture, but normally the Academy doesn’t reward a film like this Best Picture.

Triangle Of Sadness- This is a film that caught a lot of people by surprise. A shocking story of a young model/influencer couple on a cruise with the mega-rich and they get lost at sea. The film consists of a lot of bizarre humor from the food choices of the rich to their behavior to the bizarre sinking of the ship to even the death of the donkey on the island. One can say this film is the crowning achievement for director Ruben Ostlund. It’s a dark comedy that comes as more entertaining than one would expect. It has a lot of Best Picture qualities, but its chances are slim compared to many others.

Women Talking –  This is another film that will catch one by surprise. This is a well-directed story that touches on a topic that’s rarely talked about. It’s also a shocking reminder that even is these times of modernization, there are still these religious communities that have their own society and own rules separate from the outside world and a clearly dominated by the patriarchy. This story also shows how women who had been denied so much are able to achieve their own empowerment when they band together. It’s a slow story that catches your intrigue over time. Despite it, I feel it’s the film with some of the least chances of winning Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything, Everywhere All At Once

The Academy has been known to have interesting picks for their Award winners. Sometimes they will give it to the legends with a lengthy career and sometimes they’ll give it to newcomers with a fresh unique idea. This year, it looks like the favorite to win the Best Director Oscar is a duo of directors known as “The Daniels.” Kwan and Scheinert have had their start with doing music videos and short films that caught a lot of eyes. They’ve only had one other feature-length film they directed together. This film is not only the best they directed together, but also an excellent film-of-the-absurd that people will find very entertaining. Even if most won’t understand it, they will love the comedy of it. This is a very complex story which must have been difficult to put all together, but The Daniels mastered it! Deserving Oscar winners.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

The most interesting thing about this year’s nominees is that sixteen of the twenty acting nominations are for first-time nominees: the most ever! The Best Actor category, which is normally the most veteran-friendly category and has the least first-time nominations, is completely filled with first-time nominees! For this category I pick Brendan Fraser’s performance to win. Many people were not up for seeing The Whale. I can understand because it is a depressing story based on a stage play. Fraser does an excellent performance of a 600 lb. man who’s coming close to the end of his life and comes to terms with a lot of hard truths in his life while attempting to make peace with the people around him. He also plays his role as an oversized person with sensitivity and with respect. Usually the Best Actor category is one of the most decisive categories, but this has been a tough battle between Fraser and Austin Butler in Elvis. The Oscar year began with Butler the heavy favorite as Elvis but I feel it’s Fraser’s turn on Oscar night.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

This year achieved a feat of four Asian actors receiving Oscar nominations for the first time! Three of them are from Everything Everywhere All At Once. Michelle Yeoh herself made history as the first Asian actress to be nominated in the Best Actress category! It’s easy to see why she is nominated. Her story is very complex going from a simple business owner to travelling through so many universes as she contemplates the life she could have had. Those who’ve seen the movie will know this is a very complex thing to do to deliver a performance with so many complex characters and put it all together. Michelle is very deserving of the win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Everything Everywhere All At Once is not only the story of Evelyn. It’s also of her family in the many universes, including her husband Waymond in the Alphaverse. Quan delivers a performance that adds to the story and is also able to steal the show from Evelyn at times. This role is also the role Ke Huy has been waiting a long time for. Until now, he’s been mostly remembered as a child actor for roles like Short Round in Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom and Richard “Data” Wang in The Goonies. Over time, he took on a career in film production but only recently returned to acting. It was Crazy Rich Asians, the film that starred his co-star Michelle Yeoh, that made him want to return! The timing couldn’t have been better because this performance is worthy of the Oscar win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Will Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees Of Inisherin

Very often the major Oscar category that’s hardest to predict is the Supporting Actress category. Favorites often do win in this category, but this is a category with some of the most shocking upsets. This year still leaves many undecided. Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe. Jamie Lee Curtis of Everything Everywhere All At Once won the SAG Award. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA (British Academy Award). Those three are the biggest favorites. I myself feel Angela Bassett deserves to win because of how well she played Queen Ramonda. I feel it will go to Kerry Condon. Even though I don’t have her as my Should Win pick, I feel she’s still deserving as the sister who is helpful to Padraic and his friends and seeks a life outside of Inisherin.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Sarah Polley – Women Talking

This is the film with the most Canadian content.The film is based off a novel from Manitoba-writer Miriam Toews. The writer/director is Sarah Polley. Most Canadians still remember her as Sarah Stanley from Road To Avonlea, but she’s grown into a major force in directing and writing. This is a powerful story where most of the action takes place in a single room and is involved in making a tense decision. The story is full of fear, anger, hurt, frustration and hope. This is a film with an important message to send and it does so with a story that’s full of depth and human emotion. That’s why I feel Polley will be a deserving Oscar winner tomorrow.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

This is another tight category as it’s the Daniels against Martin McDonagh’s script for The Banshees Of Inisherin. I predict that to be the script most likely to upset. I still have a feeling that Everything Everywhere All At Once will be the script that wins. It’s a complex story that goes over so many universes and yet still manages to pull it all together at the end. It’s because of this complexity that I predict the Daniels to take the Oscar in this category.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Alright. Now that I’m done speaking my mind on the major categories, I will be straightforward and give straight predictions of the technical categories. Only in very few categories where I feel I’m qualified to make such a judgement will you see me give a Should Win pick. So here goes:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win: Roger Deakins – Empire of Light
Will Win: Mandy Walker – Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Should Win: Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Will Win: Catherine Martin – Elvis

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Navalny

BEST FILM EDITING

Should Win and Will Win: Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: All Quiet On The Western Front (Germany)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signnoretti – Elvis

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Volker Bertelman – All Quiet On The Western Front
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win: “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino – Babylon

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Should Win and Will Win: Avatar: The Way Of Water

BEST AMINATED SHORT FILM and BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Predictions can be seen in this blog. Click here.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Prediction can be seen in this blog. Click here.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

Sometimes I like predicting which upsets will happen to my main predictions for wins. I know I predict Dune to clean up in all of its technical categories but the Oscars have always had a surprise or two and I’m expecting surprises for this year. Here are the six biggest surprises I anticipate, and they’re listed in category order:

  • Austin Butler for Best Actor in Elvis
  • Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress in Everything Everywhere All At Once
  • Martin McDonagh for Best Original Screenplay for The Banshees Of Inisherin
  • James Friend for Best Cinematography for All Quiet On The Western Front
  • Top Gun: Maverick for Best Visual Effects
  • Ice Merchants for Best Animated Short Film

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 95th Academy Awards. Tune in tomorrow night where you can see the winners and maybe a spontaneous shocker!

VIFF 2020 Review: Jimmy Carter: Rock And Roll President

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment
You’ll learn about US President Jimmy Carter (second-right) and his love of Rock ‘N Roll, and it’s musicians including Bob Dylan (second-left) in Jimmy Carter: Rock And Roll President.

Jimmy Carter is the first American president I heard of. So you could imagine a documentary like Jimmy Carter: Rock and Roll President would naturally catch my attention.

The opening image of the documentary starts in the empty Maranatha Baptist Church in Plains, Georgia. That’s where Jimmy experienced most of his knowledge and influence in his life. It was the church where he was taught his values. It was in a multi-racial town like Plains where he was taught to see African Americans as equals instead of below whites like him. It was his father and how he helped with management of the family peanut business that he learned of hard work and integrity.

One unknown thing about Carter is it was music he connected to most. Carter collected records from a wide variety of musical genres from blues to country to gospel to even rock ‘n roll, which was something presidents before him didn’t want to connect with at all. His first connection started with folk. He took an interest in the music and lyrics of Bob Dylan, especially the song Maggie’s Farm.

His first touch with Rock ‘n Roll came in 1971 as he was campaigning for the Governor of Georgia and stopped by the Macon office of Capricorn Records. There he experienced the music of the Allmans, the Charlie Daniels Band, and Marshall Tucker. Carter struck up a friendship with Capricorn Records founder Phil Walden and the two formed a campaign strategy. During the time, Carter was listening in to recording sessions and developing friendships with the musicians.

When Carter was elected governor of Georgia in 1971, he did a lot to improve the reputation of the state of Georgia as well as the south. The south could be seen as a place where progress was being made instead of clinging onto its racist past. The big surprise was in 1974 when Bob Dylan was invited to see Cater. Jimmy’s song Chip was a big fan of his music. Jimmy complimented Bob on his music and Bob was shocked to how a leader of government, a member of the establishment, quoted his songs back and showed a liking to them.

That same year, Carter announced his intention to run for President. His campaign started with him $300,000 but he knew how to have musicians connect with voters. His biggest help came from the Allman Brothers Band as they helped to raise funds for him. Carter wasn’t simply using them. He was friends with the Allmans. Then in 1976, Carter held a Florida benefit concert with the Allmans, Charlie Daniels, Marshall Tucker and The Outlaws. However it’s not to say Jimmy didn’t have rivals. Edmund G. Brown, who was also running for the Democratic candidacy, also held a benefit concert with many acts including his girlfriend Linda Ronstadt.

In the end, Carter won the 1976 Democratic ticket. During his acceptance speech, he quoted a line from a Bob Dylan song of “a generation busy being born, not busy dying.” When Carter was elected president, Paul Simon and Aretha Franklin sang at his inaugural balls. During his presidency, rock stars visited the White House. Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young stopped by in 1977. That same year, Willie Nelson smoked a joint on top of the White House with son Chip. In 1978, Carter had a pig-roast dinner with the Atlanta Rhythm Section.

The documentary then focuses less on his association with rock musicians and more on how he served as president. His presidency was one of many great international feats. His goal was to bring back accountability and integrity to politics that appeared lost after the resignation of Nixon. His biggest achievements were in international relations. He wanted to improve the reputation of the US in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. His biggest achievement was the Camp David Summit in 1979 where he was able to strike a peace agreement between Israel and Egypt.

However things turned on him in 1980. The Islamic Revolution in Iran that started in 1979 had many American held hostage and they still weren’t free. The boycott of the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow failed to put pressure on the Soviet government to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. Back home in the US, there were economic problems. The KKK were even starting anti-Carter rallies. By the time the next election came, Ronald Reagan won. Despite losing, Carter made last-ditch efforts to free the hostages in Tehran. They were finally freed January 20, 1981: the day he left office.

The film continues into his charity and mission work he has done since leaving office. His work has been both national and international. His most famous effort is the Habitat For Humanity housing projects he helped build for low-income families. Even at the age of 96 (which he turned on October 1st), Carter is still at it. Some say his biggest moments came after his presidency.

In retrospect, I think the title is misleading. Yes, Carter liked rock ‘n roll. Yes, Carter had many a rock ‘n roll act as a supporter for his presidency. Yes, the documentary does point it out. However rock ‘n roll wasn’t the biggest thing of his presidency. It does make for something interesting how he had a love for music and how he had many musicians as friends. Nevertheless I found it a bit inconsistent with how the documentary focused on it during the first half but appears to have forgotten about it during the second half.

I was very surprised to see a CNN documentary as part of the VIFF roster. Usually I’d expect to see documentaries that are more creative or more experimental. Not that I’m complaining. I will admit this is the least original or least stylish documentary that I saw at the VIFF. Despite it, I found it very informative and very intriguing to watch about a president I continue to admire to this day. The documentary left me convinced that Carter is way more Christian than Donald Trump ever was. Carter lived out his beliefs.

I give credit to director Mary Wharton and writer Bill Flanagan for creating the documentary. Even though it appears boring in terms of documentary style, it was not short in terms of giving the information. The film did a good job in presenting a president who was a man of dignity and kept his work. Our modern world make it look like being a person of dignity look like a weakness because of how cutthroat the real world is, especially in politics. The film does show how tough it was for someone like Jimmy Carter to be President. Some of today’s politicians would label Carter a ‘marshmallow’ by today’s standards. Nevertheless, it also shows Carter as the President the USA needed in the eyes of the World. He was there to redefine the American South and he was there to redefine the USA after Vietnam and Watergate.

Jimmy Carter: Rock and Roll President may be one of the least creative documentaries at the VIFF this year. Nevertheless it does make for a good biographical documentary for a president who appears underappreciated during his time.

Oscars 2019 Best Picture Review: The Irishman

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

Irishman
Robert de Niro (second from left)  plays Frank Sheeran and Al Pacino (second from right) plays Jimmy Hoffa in Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. A story about loyalty and betrayal.

Just when you think Martin Scorsese has done everything he could in film, along comes The Irishman. This film may not be his best, but it adds to his stack of films one can call great works.

Martin Scorsese is undoubtedly the master of gangster films or Mafia films. We have sensed there would be successors in the likes of Quentin Tarantino, but that has not yet come to be. Tarantino has his own gangster style, but Scorsese films are the Mona Lisa’s of gangster movies, if you can truly call a gangster movie a Mona Lisa! Scorsese has shown his versatility in film making since the beginning of this century. His films since the new century began have taken a wide range of genres from epic to fantasy to a family film to business-scam drama to dark comedies to religious biopics. However when watching The Irishman, his first gangster movie since The Departed, it only seems natural that gangster movies were what Scorsese was born to do. Although films in the other genres he tackled are very good, it just seems natural that way. Even the excitement of having Scorsese ‘all-stars’ like Robert De Niro, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino and Harvey Keitel adds to the excitement. Additions like Ray Romano, Bobby Cannavale and Anna Paquin also add to the excitement.

Now the film has a lot of common elements you’ll expect from a Scorsese gangster movie. It tells of a man and his involvement with the mafia and of his daily duties. It also goes back to his past in how he developed the right type of insensitivity to become as consistent hitman. It also tells of some of his more legendary kills. The film also adds something different. It adds in the story of the ‘vacation of a lifetime.’ It’s not something you’d expect to be in a Scorsese film, but it’s done in a fashion you’d expect to see from Scorsese.

However it’s the aftermath that one would not expect to see in a Scorsese film. It’s like it almost shifts to a completely different film for the last half-hour. That’s what hit me about the film. It not only tells the story of a man who committed a lot of murders and also allegedly committed the murder of the man behind the most intriguing missing person case in the past half-century. It tells of the aftermath of how he would come to regret his actions over the years. Even of how he appeared to have it all and win it with fear during his lifetime, but would be doomed to die alone. You can pinpoint exactly where in the scene where Peggy ask Frank about Jo and Frank calls a distraught Jo up trying to comfort her, but knowing he’s the one who killed her husband. That’s a change of pace from Goodfellas about a mobster who lived the mob life, was imprisoned for it and regrets nothing. Even before the scene of the killing of Hoffa, there are freeze-frame montages that mention of the aftermaths of others involved in the Philly mob Frank Sheeran and Russell Bufalino were a part of, including those shot dead or imprisoned for life.  I think the whole theme of the movie wasn’t just mob life, but how everyone involved pays in the end.

Now one thing we should remember is that we should not completely embrace this story as a true story, even though it’s very accurate. The film is based off the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt. Brandt is a former homicide prosecutor, investigator and defense attorney and he’s the man who interviewed Frank Sheeran shortly before his death. During the interview, Sheeran told of his life as a hitman and of his own involvement with Jimmy Hoffa. Sheeran confessed it all to Brandt months earlier and saw a priest the last few months of his lives so he could die with a clear conscience in December of 2003. The case of Jimmy Hoffa is still unsolved and his body has never been found. The FBI have had a lot of stories and sources, but it’s Sheeran’s story that’s the one they’re most going with. However there are still some naysayers that are claiming that Sheeran lied in the interview. Whatever the situation, this missing case is still unclosed. I won’t completely call Sheeran’s story the whole truth, but I believe he makes a strong case and it’s hard for me to sense him lying.

Once again, Martin Scorsese proves himself to the be master of gangster movies. Quentin Tarantino may take ruthless killers to a new level, but Martin is still the master. This film that he directs with a script written by Steve Zaillian is a complex film to pack into 3 hours and 20 minutes. Usually if a film is that long, I would expect the director to justify it. Martin has delivered a lot of three-hour films in the past, but I’m convinced he has justified the time here. If you yourself are one of the people that has been fascinated by Jimmy Hoffa and his missing story, this will be a film that will intrigue you.

It’s not just the story that will intrigue you, but how the Scorsese/Zaillian creates it and arranges it from beginning to end. It starts as the audience visits a nursing home, tours around seeing family after family and comes across a lonely man: Frank Sheeran. Then it jumps into 1975 and the story of how Frank, his wife, his mob boss Russell Bufalino and Russ’ wife Carrie were going on a ‘trip of a lifetime’ from Philadelphia to Detroit. Then it paves on how it led to all this from Frank’s days of truck driving to introduction to the mob to being a hitman for hire to a close friend of Jimmy Hoffa. The story shows of Hoffa’s rise, downfall and attempted comeback. It also shows Frank’s struggle of who should he be loyal to: Hoffa or the mob? It slows the moment of the ‘big day’ down and it delivers the aftermath with feeling that cuts deep. Also it treats the film as if Sheeran is giving us an interview. Almost like we’re Charles Brandt! I have to say the format of the film works and will keep one intrigued whether they’re a fan of Scorsese films, fan of mob films, or just have an interest in Jimmy Hoffa. It’s interesting how the film begins with “In The Still Of The Night” and it’s nice to hear and is replayed at the end, but it sounds haunting at the end. The film and its layout of the story makes it work.

Big credit to Robert de Niro for playing the role of Frank Sheeran. To do Frank, he has to cut deep into the man and how he went from a fearless killer who was able to adopt the coldness of killing to being the man with regrets in the end and wants to die with a clear conscience. Robert does an excellent job of it. Also excellent is Joe Pesci playing the mob boss who wants to call the shots of Sheeran and Hoffa. Pesci really knew how to steal the scenes in the film. Al Pacino was also great as Hoffa. He did an excellent job in delivering a multi-dimensional and complex performance of a man in history who was just as complicated as he was a legend. There were a lot of good supporting performances from Ray Romano, Bobby Cannavale and Harvey Keitel. However one of the biggest standout performances came from one with little dialogue: that of Anna Paquin. Her role of Peggy Sheeran required her to say with her physical actions and facial expressions and she did an excellent job. Even one of the few spoken lines she had in the film “Why haven’t you called Jo?” would pave the way to where the film changed from a story of mob work to the story of regret.

The film should also be admired for its technical merits too. There’s the visual effects team that did the top-notch CGI effects to take the ages of de Niro, Pesci and Pacino back 30 years without them needing heavy make-up. It’s not just the actors acting younger than their ages but the CGI too! There’s also the costuming of Sandy Powell and the set designs by Bob Shaw and Regina Graves to take the film back to the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s. There’s also the inclusion of music into the film that takes the film back to its set times. The score from Robbie Robertson also ads to the film.

The Irishman may be a true story, or it may be one big lie. However you put it, it’s a very telling story that paints a vivid but dark picture of what might have happened in one of the most intriguing missing cases ever. It’s also another film Scorsese directs and puts together in excellent fashion. It’s easy to see why it’s another contender for this year’s Oscars.

My Predictions For The 2017 Oscars

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Chocolate Oscar

The Oscars will be awarded Sunday night. Jimmy Kimmel will be back. Last year’s ‘envelope guardians’ from PWC, Brian Cullinan and Martha Ruiz, won’t be for obvious reasons. I’ve seen enough movies and shorts to make up 90 of the nominations here. And to think just before Christmas, the only big-time contender I saw was Dunkirk. Whatever the situation, I succeeded again for the seventeenth year in a row in seeing all of the Best Picture nominees before Oscar night.

And now here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP:

Interesting how last year I did ‘summaries’ where I reviewed three in one blog. This time I had the energy to do one blog per film. So here’s my summary. All titles have links to my reviews:

-Call Me By Your Name– This is an excellent story about a love that’s meant to be, but is only temporary. It’s best quality is the story happening in a picturesque background. Excellent film, but I don’t think it has what it takes to win Best Picture.

-Darkest Hour– This is one film that was not considered a huge threat to the Best Picture race, but it did it. It has a lot to admire, especially Oldman’s acting. However I don’t think it has what it takes both as a picture and in terms of campaigning to win.

-Dunkirk– This is a film that first appears like it has Best Picture material. This makes for n excellent case, but the script is lacking and there’s no single acting performance that stands out for this year. Excellent film, nevertheless.

-Get Out– This is one of the Top 3 bets for Best Picture. It has a lot of what it takes to win, and especially since this is a come-from-nowhere story. However the Academy has never taken well to horror movies. I think this is the first ever to be nominated for Best Picture? I think the Academy will back off in favor of the ‘other two’ contenders.

-Lady Bird– This is a charmer of a film and one of the more significant films of the year. It’s a film written and directed by a woman and sends the message about how much of an impact women can have in film. Excellent work, but usually the Academy doesn’t normally reward movies where a teenager is the central character.

-Phantom Thread– This is a film that had the luck of a ‘late surge.’ The film was first seen having its best chances in nominations in Day-Lewis’ acting, Anderson’s writing and Bridges’ costuming. Instead it also acquired Best Picture and Best Director. Very good film, but lacks the muscle of some of the other contenders.

-The Post– This is another excellent Spielberg film. However it doesn’t compare to some of his more legendary works like Schindler’s List or Saving Private Ryan or even E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial. Not this time Steven.

-The Shape Of Water– This is the one film of the bunch that I can truly describe as ‘having it all.’ Top acting, top directing, top script, and even a lot of pluses along the way like top set design, excellent costuming, excellent make-up and excellent music. This is my pick for Should Win and Will Win.

-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri– This is a film packed with top acting and a top script. I liked it because of its unpredictability. I don’t think it will win Best Picture, but I think this is the film that has the best chances of upsetting The Shape Of Water.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should Win & Will Win – Guillermo del Toro, The Shape Of Water

How many of you have seen Pan’s Labyrinth? How many of you fell in love with that film? I’m one that has. I’ve been waiting for the longest time for Del Toro to get his acclaim as a director. Finally he gets his chance with The Shape Of Water.

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Many people have felt that Gary Oldman is one of the most underrated actors around. He’s given us a lot to appreciate ever since he burst onto the scene with Sid And Nancy. After so long, he finally gets his long overdue respect. And if you saw Darkest Hour, you’d know it’s for all the right reasons.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win and Will Win – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Frances knows how to mix the comedic with the dramatic. Those who saw Fargo ought to know. That’s where she won her first Best Actress Oscar. I read that Frances tried to adopt John Wayne as an influence for Mildred Hayes. In retrospect, I think she was dead on! It’s no wonder she’s favored to win her second Oscar here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This year’s favorites for the acting categories are rather predictable. All of them have won the Golden Globe, The SAG and the BAFTA awards. The Oscar is a forgone conclusion. Same here for Sam Rockwell. Nevertheless he is deserving of it as he does some excellent character acting that makes him unrecognizable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win and Will Win – Allison Janney, I, Tonya

I’m sure all of you can name at least one movie where you saw Allison Janney catch your eye in a supporting role. Primary Colors, American Beauty, Nurse Betty, The Hours, Hairspray, Juno, The Help, The Way Way Back, the list goes on. Even if the role is small, she helps make the movie. Now it’s her turn for Oscar glory, and rightly so. She’ll leave you wondering if the movie’s about Tonya or LaVona.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win – Jordan Peele, Get Out

Will Win – Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It’s a tough call between the two scripts. I’d like to see Get Out because everybody loves a come-from-nowhere story. I think it will go to Three Billboards on the strength of it Best Picture buzz.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win and Will Win – James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name

I can see why it’s so highly acclaimed. It plays out like a lot of European films, even though it’s actually a love story about two Americans in Europe. Nevertheless the best choice in this category.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win and Will Win: CoCo

2017’s line-up of animated movies really couldn’t compare to that of 2016. We’re talking a year where The Boss Baby was nominated and there was even the mere release of The Emoji Movie! However it’s like they saved the best for the end of the year with Ferdinand, CoCo and Loving Vincent. A lot of people loved the humor of Ferdinand, but I went with CoCo. I always love it when an animated movie takes you to another world, and CoCo is the movie that did it this year.

BEST ART DIRECTION:

Will Win: Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin, The Shape Of Water

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will Win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: Faces Places

BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Lee Smith, Dunkirk

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Will Win: The Square (Sweden)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Will Win: Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: Alexeandre Desplat, The Shape Of Water

It seems like every time John Williams creates a film score, it gets nominated. Actually his score for The Post–which had bigger nomination expectations than his score for The Last Jedi— didn’t get nominated! That’s odd. I always considered a nomination for John Williams a default. Whatever the situation, Alexandre Desplat looks to be the film composer most poised to be the next great one. He won for The Grand Budapest Hotel and he’s highly likely to do it again.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Should Win & Will Win: ‘Remember Me’ from CoCo

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Will Win: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Will Win: Dunkirk

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Will Win: Edith+Eddie

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the five upsets I feel are most likely to occur:

  • Three Billboards wins Best Picture
  • Willem Dafoe wins Best Supporting Actor for The Florida Project
  • Jordan Peele wins Best Original Screenplay for Get Out
  • ‘This Is Me’ from The Greatest Showman wins Best Original Song
  • A Fantastic Woman from Chile wins Best Foreign Language Film

And there you have it. My predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. The 90th edition. I’m expecting them to show a lot of memories of the past. One thing I hope for this year is that they have all their envelopes right. Whatever the situation, it looks to be one entertaining night.

My Predictions For The 2016 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

DISCLAIMER: There was an incomplete post like this yesterday. The reason was I was editing from my smartphone and intended to update the draft, not publish the blog. It published anyways. This blog here is my complete blog for Oscar predictions.

Chocolate Oscar

The Academy Awards are here. I’ve seen enough movies to make up 82 of the nominations this year. It was quite the year with lots to offer and a lot of things that appeared guaranteed weren’t. So without further ado, let’s get on with the predictions:

BEST PICTURE WRAP-UP

You all saw my three summaries of all nine nominees. Doing shorter summaries were better for me this year. Maybe next year I won’t be so busy or have as many ailments. So here goes for predicting the winner:

-Arrival-  This is the first movie about aliens to be nominated for an Oscar. A very smart film that was loaded with buzz when it first came out. However its awards excitement faded over time as did its Best Picture chances.

-Fences- I like it when I see a celebrated play brought to the big screen. Especially around Oscar time. I felt it was done excellently. However it is up in this category against meatier competition. This is one category I think Fences won’t win.

-Hacksaw Ridge- Very rarely does a pro-religion movie have a chance for Best Picture. Hacksaw Ridge is the pro-religion film in the past 15 years most deserving of a nomination. However it does have some formulaic elements that come up every now and then and it has better chances in the technical categories instead of Best Picture.

-Hell Or High Water-  This year’s ‘summer survivor.’ Those like me who missed out on it during the summer missed out on a gem. A crime story that’s funny and entertaining, but smart too. However I’m not too optimistic in its Oscar chances here.

-Hidden Figures- This movie started with very little Oscar buzz at first but it increased as rapport from the film–from both critics and audience alike– grew. It seems like it doesn’t have good chances to win Best Picture but it could pull a surprise. A very slim chance of that but it is likely.

-La La Land- What can I say? People have been embracing it in droves. Why? Because people just really like a good musical? Because of its feel? Because it reminds one of the charm of old Hollywood? Whatever it is, it’s made it the frontrunner that looks hard to beat. That’s why it’s my Will Win pick. the biggest reason why I hope it win is because last year I said: “One more Best Picture winner that fails to gross $100 million and I’m done Oscarwatching.” I don’t know what made me carry on even after Spotlight won– and it didn’t even make $50 million— but La La Land makes me glad I did.

-Lion- I’m no expert in Oscar trivia but I think this is the first Australian film to be nominated for Best Picture, and a deserving nominee. It’s won over everyone I know who has seen it. It may have had better Best Picture chances in another year.

-Manchester By The Sea- This is a film that was loaded with buzz at the beginning of the Oscar race and looked to be the one film that could beat out La La Land. The buzz faded over time, despite how great the film was. May have an outside chance but not too likely.

-Moonlight- This is one film that proves that less is more. Less dialogue, more of a feel of what’s happening. Less showy characters, more knowing who the characters are. Less singing and dancing, more feel for the music in the film. This is the surprise of the Oscar race that was able to let it speak for itself. I know it faces a hell of a fight against La La Land to win Best Picture but I give this my Should Win pick.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should Win – Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Will Win – Damien Chazelle, La La Land

I felt that Moonlight is the better picture and Jenkins did an excellent job of directing but I know this is the year of La La Land and it’s Damien Chazelle’s to take.

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Denzel Washington, Fences

These past two years saw the rise of the #OscarsSoWhite outcry. This year there are seven non-white acting nominees. Denzel may have won twice before but his performance as Troy Maxson has been getting loads of buzz and even surprised favorite Casey Affleck at the SAG Awards. The only way I can see Casey winning instead of Denzel is if the Academy doesn’t want to make this his third Oscar, and it is a possibility.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win – Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Will Win – Emma Stone, La La Land

Some are saying that Isabelle Huppert looks to be the biggest threat to Emma Stone’s win. It is a possibility but I think Casey Affleck beating out Denzel appears more likely. It’s Emma’s to lose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win and Will Win – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Mahershala Ali may have only been seen in the first part of Moonlight but there was something about his performance of Juan that stood out like no other supporting performance this year. Was it Juan’s charisma? Was it his silent coolness? Whatever it is, it’s what made Mahershala stand out this year among all the supporting actor performances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win and Will Win – Viola Davis, Fences

What can I say? If there’s anyone who can steal the show from Denzel, it’s Viola Davis. She reminded us very well that Fences wasn’t just about Troy Maxson. It was about Rose too.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win – Taylor Sheridan, Hell Or High Water

Will Win – Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea

A lot of people are expecting Damien Chazelle to do it again here but I feel that Kenneth Lonergan will take it for one of the best scripts of the year. It was a film that cuts deep and doesn’t water down.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win and Will Win – Barry Jenkins and Terell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight

It all started with a short story by McCraney, then Jenkins developed a screenplay, and now it’s one of the best of the year. No stopping it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: Kubo And The Two Strings

Will Win: Zootopia

Kubo was the best at taking your imagination away this year. However in comparison to frontrunner Zootopia, it isn’t really all that family friendly and that I believe is where it will hurt it. Zootopia was without a doubt this year’s crowd charmer. Besides this is the one category Disney wants to take year after year.

BEST ART DIRECTION:

Will Win: La La Land

Let’s face it. Any movie that shows off the classic areas in Los Angeles and even meshes it into the present will win this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: O. J. Simpson: Made In America

BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Tom Cross, La La Land

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)

Salesman director Asghar Farhadi has been the subject of news as it was believed Donald Trump’s travel ban could prevent him from attending the Oscars. Whatever the situation, he boycotted the Oscars in protest of Trump’s policies.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Will Win: A Man Called Ove

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land

I’m sure we’ve all been waiting for the longest time for a musical of original composition. Especially the Academy.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Should Win: ‘Audition (The Fools Who Dream)’, La La Land

Will Win: ‘City Of Stars’, La La Land

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Will Win: La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: The Jungle Book

I think the reason why Star Wars lost this category last year is because having the best digital effects of the year is expected for a Star Wars movie. That’s where The Jungle Book has the edge for this year.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:

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BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Will Win: Joe’s Helmet

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

I did this for the first time last year. I want to do it again this year.:

  • Moonlight wins Best Picture
  • Casey Affleck wins Best Actor for Manchester By The Sea
  • Kubo And The Two Strings wins Best Animated Feature
  • Arrival wins Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Greig Fraser wins Best Cinematography for Lion.

And there you have it. My predictions for Hollywood’s night of nights. Let’s see how Jimmy Kimmel does as host this time.