Once again it’s another year of seeing all the Best Pictures nominees before Oscar night! How do I do it? Actually how do I afford it? Anyways the Oscars are again to be held on the second Sunday of March. Jimmy Kimmel is back as the host. Its’ so refreshing to have a host back! Once again, I make my predictions for who I think will win. Here’s who I think will be the winners of the 2023 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Just when I thought Olly Gibbs and his tradition to do the image of the Oscar nominees ended last year, he does it again. Maybe he just likes doing it for fun! And of the love he gets for it!

Now about my blogging of Best Pictures reviews, a funny thing happened. When I started, I intended to divide the reviews into a blog of four and two blogs of three. Before I finished the first blog, I did a Word check for spelling, grammar and the word count. Each time I did a single movie review, I noticed each review was either close to a total of a thousand words or had already surpassed it. I published that four-review blog at first but as I was working on the second blog, I noticed the reviews for all three films were over a thousand words. I figured having blogs of three or more reviews would be too much to digest. Like seriously, would you read a blog that becomes over five-thousand words long? I didn’t think so. That’s why I did the single movie blogs after that! Glad I came to my senses!

Now the nitty gritty of the ten nominated pictures. Did you know if you only see the Best Picture nominees alone, you will have seen the films that make up a total of 71 nominations? That makes up almost 60% of the nominations this year! Four are comedies, four are depictions of people that existed or events that happened, most are releases from late in the year, two were the biggest hits of the summer, three are directed by women, and two were the biggest darlings of the 2023 Cannes Film Festival.

The Best Picture nominees have some interesting nomination statistics. All but one of the ten had their script nominated in the screenplay category while five of the films’ directors make up all the Best Director nominees. Eight of the films have acting nominations and 16 of the 20 nominated acting performances come from Best Picture contenders. The films make up all the Best Film Editing nominations. The nominated films own four of the five nominations for Cinematography, Costuming, Production Design and Original Score. The combined ten-set also own three of the five nominees in Original Song (with two Barbie songs nominated), Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. The only category outside of Animated Feature, Documentary Feature or the short films categories where none of them got a nomination is in Visual Effects.

Without further ado, here are my opinions of the Oscar chances of the ten Best Picture nominees with links to my reviews in the title:

American Fiction –  In my review of the film, I declared it the best comedy of the year. It is a funny sad comedy. It lampoons the expectations of the white-dominated “liberal elite” on black literature or black arts. It taunts how most white people like to eat up certain common depictions of African-Americans, including negative ones. Monk and his plugging of the release of his pandering “gangsta” novel showcases it all well. It’s not an angry satire which one would expect from Spike Lee, but the comedy is sensible and you’ll laugh at the truthfulness. Despite how good it is, there are films with bigger buzz and bigger chances of winning the big award.

Anatomy Of A Fall – This is a courtroom drama story with a lot of intrigue. A suspicious fatal fall, a wife who’s a public figure and a bisexual, a husband who suffered from depression, a blind son who looks like he was given a sheltered life, a prosecutor who looks determined to win the case, a defense team who wants to make the facts clear, and a dog that could hold the key to the truth. All of which make for a story that will get one intrigued and all a great drama. I found the film worthy of a Best Picture win, but there are other films that have more of what it takes.

Barbie – This movie definitely had the biggest fanfare and the biggest advertising I’ve seen in a long time. As the movie made its way into theatres, it became beloved by critics and became the biggest box office hit of the summer! It even had enough endurance to make its way into the awards accolades. As you know, it got a good amount of Oscar nods but snubbed in the two most anticipated categories: Actress for Robbie and Director for Gerwig. I’m sure it will win two Oscars but its Best Picture chances faded fast.

The Holdovers – When was the last time a Christmas-themed film was nominated for Best Picture? Seems like eons ago. This is a charming story of three lonely people at a prep school spending Christmas together and it ended up being the best thing for all three. The film has its heartbreaking moments and its humorous moments. They mix well together and they give the other its own time. The film ends with the feeling of hope for all three. It’s one of the best comedies of the year but I see it having rough competition to win Best Picture.

Killers Of The Flower Moon –  Scorsese does it again! He takes a moment of historic infamy in the United States and makes an excellent depiction of the people and events. I don’t think it was worth being 3 1/2 hours long but it was a good story that keeps one intrigued and helped Scorsese nab his tenth Best Director nomination. Also despite Hollywood being known for its bad depictions of Native Americans, this film did an excellent respectful depiction of them. Although it looks like Best Pictures material, it’s missing a key nomination. This is the only one of the Best Picture nominees whose screenplay wasn’t nominated. I feel that will hurt its Best Picture chances.

Maestro – Biography films are usually loved by the Academy. It’s no wonder a film about Leonard Bernstein should appeal to the Academy. And for Bradley Cooper to direct, co-write and play Bernstein himself to boot! One thing this film succeeds in doing is it keeps from being the common biography film. It’s also about his wife Felicia, definitely about his music and it shows a hidden side to Bernstein most never new. This film is worthy of the Best Pictures win but there’s one other that has the right stuff.

Oppenheimer – You can describe J. Robert Oppenheimer however you see him. Brilliant genius? Imaginative? A pioneer? A hero? A killer? A communist? An unfaithful husband? An arrogant man? You be the judge. This film does more than show Oppenheimer and him leading the project to create the atomic bomb. It is three-dimensional in depicting the person. It does a great job of capturing his imagination. It also shows the aftermath of his work and how it haunts him for the rest of his life.

I make this film my Should Win and Will Win pick. Also I have to say if it wins, it will be refreshing to see a blockbuster back as the Best Pictures winner. To think the last time a film that grossed $100 million won Best Pictures is 2012’s Argo! Yeah, that long ago!

Past Lives – It’s very rare for a film about a slow, mostly quiet story can win people over. Often a story like that gets dismissed as “boring.” Also it’s not often for a story of something distinct with one’s culture can be embraced by different people. This film succeeds in getting people engaged with a quiet story of childhood lovers reuniting and the Korean element of In-Yun added in engaging to filmgoers. I admire it for being a story that gets people engaged. The problem for winning Best Picture is its only other nomination is for the screenplay. That eliminates its chances of winning Best Pictures right there.

Poor Things – There seems like every Oscar season, there’s at least one Best Pictures contenders that’s either odd or absurd or eccentric, but charming. This is the film for this year. Yorgos Lanthimos knows how to take the absurd and turn it into a charming story. Here he takes a story that appears like Dr. Frankenstein meets female empowerment. It’s a film that’s sci-fi, absurdist drama, romance and comedy rolled into one. Although it seems like Oppenheimer is a lock to win Best Pictures, this film and it’s late buzz looks to be the Most Likely Upstter. Who knows? Best Pictures surprise wins have happened before.

The Zone Of Interest – Another darling of Cannes 2023 starring Sandra Huller. Must be her lucky year. Of all the Best Pictures contenders, this is a film whose biggest storytelling assets aren’t the actors or the script. It’s about what’s happening around them. It’s what’s happening behind the walls. It’s a story that appears to have simplistic scenes but when you look back, those scenes tell a lot more. Also while this is not a Holocaust film that gives you what you want in the end, it does send a strong message at the end of the Nazi’s eventual fate. Great film and a deserving Best Pictures nominee, but I feel it’s missing some qualities to win Best Pictures, like standout acting performances.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

We have a lot of super directors that are quite active. Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese and James Cameron come to mind. One director that should rank with them is British director Christopher Nolan. He’s had a wide array of films he directed to success. It started with 2001’s Memento, had his big Hollywood break with 2008’s The Dark Knight, taken further with 2011’s Inception and finally got his first Best Director nomination with 2017’s Dunkirk. I’m sure all of us can name at least one Nolan film we like. Finally he proves his mettle as Oppenheimer is the most renowned film of 2023. It’s won critics and audiences alike and has won the lion’s share of awards. Christopher Nolan’s time is finally now.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

There’s a quote from Leonard Bernstein — another person who’s portrayal in a film earned the actor a Best Actor nomination — that went approximately “Art shouldn’t answer questions. Rather art should provoke questions.” I believe that’s what Cillian Murphy does here in Oppenheimer. Without a doubt, he gets into the character of J. Robert Oppenheimer, but his portrayal leaves you questioning how you should see J. Robert. Should you see him as a hero? A killer? An unfaithful man? An arrogant person? A backstabber? The movie is about that, but it is Cillian’s performance that helps make it.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win: Lily Gladstone – Killers Of The Flower Moon
Will Win: Emma Stone – Poor Things

The buzz is all there. Lily Gladstone has won a ton of awards. Her performance of Mollie Burkhart who goes from loving wife to betrayed in the end had a lot to do with how great Killers Of The Flower Moon is. She even stole the show from Leonardo and made it her film. If she wins, she will become the first Native American actress to win an Oscar. Only thing is hot on her heels is Emma Stone in Poor Things. Emma’s performance of a woman with a baby’s brain who develops into a more empowered version of herself is also an excellent work. Emma has also clinched a few wins of her own like the Critics Choice and the Bafta. Something is telling me that despite Lily being highly favored, Emma will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Very often, an actor or actress who’s famous for notable roles will get a lot of renown for playing a character completely different from what you expect. Robert Downey Jr. may be recognized by face but he will become unrecognizable through his acting as you watch. Just like Cillian Murphy will make you question how to see J. Robert Oppenheimer, Downey Jr. will also make you question how to regard Lewis Strauss. Should you see him as an enemy of Oppenheimer’s? Is he jealous? Does he feel betrayed? Or through it all, does he still hold an admiration for him? Downey Jr. succeeds in doing all that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Performances in comedies commonly get the short end of the stick come Oscar time. Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance as Mary Lamb is deserving of the win. It often seems unorthodox for a heartbreaking scene to be shown in a comedy, but we get it when Mary has that moment of heartbreak as she hurts over the loss of her son. It’s one of the most heartbreaking scenes of the year, but The Holdovers still manages to be a comedy. Even Mary seems like a role fit for a comedy as she learns to live again as she’s reunited with her sister. It’s her transformations from starting off living her daily life to going to one extreme of emotions to the polar opposite at the end as why she deserves to win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Cord Jefferson – American Fiction

One of the most interesting things to happen in this category is the screenplay for Barbie had mostly received its awards and nominations in the Original screenplay category. A script based on a doll doesn’t seem like an adaptation of any kind. Despite that and despite winning the Critics Choice award in the Original category, weeks before the nominations were to be announced, they announced they would make a running in the Adapted category. The Barbie script succeeded in getting nominated.

Despite that, it’s still the script of American Fiction from Cord Jefferson that has won most of the awards and deserves to win. I mean the lack of proper representation of African Americans in the arts world is enough to disappoint people and even outrage some. Something makes me think if Spike Lee were to do his own adaptation of Erasure, it would be an angry drama. But Jefferson turns it into a comedy and lampoons the whole system of how the mostly-white liberal scene treats an obviously-pandering novel before release. The more Monk panders, the more buzz and renown he gets. Jefferson succeeds in making a story of a serious topic look like the circus it can be.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Justine Triet – Anatomy Of A Fall

If you’ve seen Anatomy Of A Fall. you too can get drawn into the story and never let go. It presents a fictional story you could see happening in real life and the big question of is the accused innocent or guilty? When you learn of the friction of the marriage, that will cause you to question even more. Meanwhile this is happening as the blind son doesn’t know what to think of his mother. Triet gives us a story that allows us to make our own judgement of the accused as well as through our judgement as the story goes, expose our own way of thinking and even possibly our prejudices. Even at the end, were still left with only our own judgement of Sandra as we reflect back. That’s why I feel she deserves to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

It’s usually in the major categories when I give my long-winded opinions. The only case I will give a long-winded opinion in the technical category section down below will be for the Animated Feature category. Only in very few categories where I feel I’m qualified to make such a judgement will you see me give a Should Win pick. So here are my picks for the technical winners:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This is the one technical Oscar category in which you’ll see me write a paragraph about since I’ve seen all three. For a look at my thoughts on all five, click here for my blog from yesterday. This year’s five contenders are a big mix. One is a Disney film or a Disney collaboration; it does seem like each year there need to be at least one Disney nominee. Two are foreign productions. One is from Netflix. Two are 2D animation and the three others with the latest 3D technology. Looking them over I give The Boy And The Heron my Should Win pick and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse my Will Win pick. The awards race has been a tight race between the two but I think the Spider-Verse film has the edge.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win and Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Should Win: Jacqueline Durran – Barbie
Will Win: Holly Waddington – Poor Things

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: 20 Days In Mariupol

BEST FILM EDITING

Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers Of The Flower Moon
Will Win: Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Zone Of Interest (United Kingdom)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell – Maestro

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
Will Win: “What Was I Made For” – Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: James Price, Shona Heath and Zsuzsa Mihalek – Poor Things

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Oppenheimer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Should Win and Will Win: The Creator

BEST AMINATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

Once again with my predictions comes six possible upsets that I most think can happen tomorrow night. Remember that despite the big awards buzz and predictions and awards clout, nothing is completely guaranteed. Here are the six biggest surprises I anticipate, and they’re listed in category order:

• Lily Gladstone for Best Actress for Killers Of The Flower Moon
• Tony McNamara for Best Adapted Screenplay for Poor Things.
• The Boy And The Heron for Best Animated Feature
• Jacqueline Durran for Best Costuming for Barbie
• Robbie Robertson for Best Original Score for Killers Of The Flower Moon
• Guardians of The Galaxy, Vol. 3 for Best Visual Effects

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Hopefully the show will run as smoothly as it went last year and without incident! I trust Jimmy Kimmel will do a good job like he did last year.