My Predictions For The 2023 Academy Awards

Once again it’s another year of seeing all the Best Pictures nominees before Oscar night! How do I do it? Actually how do I afford it? Anyways the Oscars are again to be held on the second Sunday of March. Jimmy Kimmel is back as the host. Its’ so refreshing to have a host back! Once again, I make my predictions for who I think will win. Here’s who I think will be the winners of the 2023 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Just when I thought Olly Gibbs and his tradition to do the image of the Oscar nominees ended last year, he does it again. Maybe he just likes doing it for fun! And of the love he gets for it!

Now about my blogging of Best Pictures reviews, a funny thing happened. When I started, I intended to divide the reviews into a blog of four and two blogs of three. Before I finished the first blog, I did a Word check for spelling, grammar and the word count. Each time I did a single movie review, I noticed each review was either close to a total of a thousand words or had already surpassed it. I published that four-review blog at first but as I was working on the second blog, I noticed the reviews for all three films were over a thousand words. I figured having blogs of three or more reviews would be too much to digest. Like seriously, would you read a blog that becomes over five-thousand words long? I didn’t think so. That’s why I did the single movie blogs after that! Glad I came to my senses!

Now the nitty gritty of the ten nominated pictures. Did you know if you only see the Best Picture nominees alone, you will have seen the films that make up a total of 71 nominations? That makes up almost 60% of the nominations this year! Four are comedies, four are depictions of people that existed or events that happened, most are releases from late in the year, two were the biggest hits of the summer, three are directed by women, and two were the biggest darlings of the 2023 Cannes Film Festival.

The Best Picture nominees have some interesting nomination statistics. All but one of the ten had their script nominated in the screenplay category while five of the films’ directors make up all the Best Director nominees. Eight of the films have acting nominations and 16 of the 20 nominated acting performances come from Best Picture contenders. The films make up all the Best Film Editing nominations. The nominated films own four of the five nominations for Cinematography, Costuming, Production Design and Original Score. The combined ten-set also own three of the five nominees in Original Song (with two Barbie songs nominated), Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. The only category outside of Animated Feature, Documentary Feature or the short films categories where none of them got a nomination is in Visual Effects.

Without further ado, here are my opinions of the Oscar chances of the ten Best Picture nominees with links to my reviews in the title:

American Fiction –  In my review of the film, I declared it the best comedy of the year. It is a funny sad comedy. It lampoons the expectations of the white-dominated “liberal elite” on black literature or black arts. It taunts how most white people like to eat up certain common depictions of African-Americans, including negative ones. Monk and his plugging of the release of his pandering “gangsta” novel showcases it all well. It’s not an angry satire which one would expect from Spike Lee, but the comedy is sensible and you’ll laugh at the truthfulness. Despite how good it is, there are films with bigger buzz and bigger chances of winning the big award.

Anatomy Of A Fall This is a courtroom drama story with a lot of intrigue. A suspicious fatal fall, a wife who’s a public figure and a bisexual, a husband who suffered from depression, a blind son who looks like he was given a sheltered life, a prosecutor who looks determined to win the case, a defense team who wants to make the facts clear, and a dog that could hold the key to the truth. All of which make for a story that will get one intrigued and all a great drama. I found the film worthy of a Best Picture win, but there are other films that have more of what it takes.

Barbie – This movie definitely had the biggest fanfare and the biggest advertising I’ve seen in a long time. As the movie made its way into theatres, it became beloved by critics and became the biggest box office hit of the summer! It even had enough endurance to make its way into the awards accolades. As you know, it got a good amount of Oscar nods but snubbed in the two most anticipated categories: Actress for Robbie and Director for Gerwig. I’m sure it will win two Oscars but its Best Picture chances faded fast.

The Holdovers – When was the last time a Christmas-themed film was nominated for Best Picture? Seems like eons ago. This is a charming story of three lonely people at a prep school spending Christmas together and it ended up being the best thing for all three. The film has its heartbreaking moments and its humorous moments. They mix well together and they give the other its own time. The film ends with the feeling of hope for all three. It’s one of the best comedies of the year but I see it having rough competition to win Best Picture.

Killers Of The Flower Moon –  Scorsese does it again! He takes a moment of historic infamy in the United States and makes an excellent depiction of the people and events. I don’t think it was worth being 3 1/2 hours long but it was a good story that keeps one intrigued and helped Scorsese nab his tenth Best Director nomination. Also despite Hollywood being known for its bad depictions of Native Americans, this film did an excellent respectful depiction of them. Although it looks like Best Pictures material, it’s missing a key nomination. This is the only one of the Best Picture nominees whose screenplay wasn’t nominated. I feel that will hurt its Best Picture chances.

Maestro Biography films are usually loved by the Academy. It’s no wonder a film about Leonard Bernstein should appeal to the Academy. And for Bradley Cooper to direct, co-write and play Bernstein himself to boot! One thing this film succeeds in doing is it keeps from being the common biography film. It’s also about his wife Felicia, definitely about his music and it shows a hidden side to Bernstein most never new. This film is worthy of the Best Pictures win but there’s one other that has the right stuff.

Oppenheimer You can describe J. Robert Oppenheimer however you see him. Brilliant genius? Imaginative? A pioneer? A hero? A killer? A communist? An unfaithful husband? An arrogant man? You be the judge. This film does more than show Oppenheimer and him leading the project to create the atomic bomb. It is three-dimensional in depicting the person. It does a great job of capturing his imagination. It also shows the aftermath of his work and how it haunts him for the rest of his life.

I make this film my Should Win and Will Win pick. Also I have to say if it wins, it will be refreshing to see a blockbuster back as the Best Pictures winner. To think the last time a film that grossed $100 million won Best Pictures is 2012’s Argo! Yeah, that long ago!

Past Lives It’s very rare for a film about a slow, mostly quiet story can win people over. Often a story like that gets dismissed as “boring.” Also it’s not often for a story of something distinct with one’s culture can be embraced by different people. This film succeeds in getting people engaged with a quiet story of childhood lovers reuniting and the Korean element of In-Yun added in engaging to filmgoers. I admire it for being a story that gets people engaged. The problem for winning Best Picture is its only other nomination is for the screenplay. That eliminates its chances of winning Best Pictures right there.

Poor Things  There seems like every Oscar season, there’s at least one Best Pictures contenders that’s either odd or absurd or eccentric, but charming. This is the film for this year. Yorgos Lanthimos knows how to take the absurd and turn it into a charming story. Here he takes a story that appears like Dr. Frankenstein meets female empowerment. It’s a film that’s sci-fi, absurdist drama, romance and comedy rolled into one. Although it seems like Oppenheimer is a lock to win Best Pictures, this film and it’s late buzz looks to be the Most Likely Upstter. Who knows? Best Pictures surprise wins have happened before.

The Zone Of Interest – Another darling of Cannes 2023 starring Sandra Huller. Must be her lucky year. Of all the Best Pictures contenders, this is a film whose biggest storytelling assets aren’t the actors or the script. It’s about what’s happening around them. It’s what’s happening behind the walls. It’s a story that appears to have simplistic scenes but when you look back, those scenes tell a lot more. Also while this is not a Holocaust film that gives you what you want in the end, it does send a strong message at the end of the Nazi’s eventual fate. Great film and a deserving Best Pictures nominee, but I feel it’s missing some qualities to win Best Pictures, like standout acting performances.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

We have a lot of super directors that are quite active. Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese and James Cameron come to mind. One director that should rank with them is British director Christopher Nolan. He’s had a wide array of films he directed to success. It started with 2001’s Memento, had his big Hollywood break with 2008’s The Dark Knight, taken further with 2011’s Inception and finally got his first Best Director nomination with 2017’s Dunkirk. I’m sure all of us can name at least one Nolan film we like. Finally he proves his mettle as Oppenheimer is the most renowned film of 2023. It’s won critics and audiences alike and has won the lion’s share of awards. Christopher Nolan’s time is finally now.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

There’s a quote from Leonard Bernstein — another person who’s portrayal in a film earned the actor a Best Actor nomination — that went approximately “Art shouldn’t answer questions. Rather art should provoke questions.” I believe that’s what Cillian Murphy does here in Oppenheimer. Without a doubt, he gets into the character of J. Robert Oppenheimer, but his portrayal leaves you questioning how you should see J. Robert. Should you see him as a hero? A killer? An unfaithful man? An arrogant person? A backstabber? The movie is about that, but it is Cillian’s performance that helps make it.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win: Lily Gladstone – Killers Of The Flower Moon
Will Win: Emma Stone – Poor Things

The buzz is all there. Lily Gladstone has won a ton of awards. Her performance of Mollie Burkhart who goes from loving wife to betrayed in the end had a lot to do with how great Killers Of The Flower Moon is. She even stole the show from Leonardo and made it her film. If she wins, she will become the first Native American actress to win an Oscar. Only thing is hot on her heels is Emma Stone in Poor Things. Emma’s performance of a woman with a baby’s brain who develops into a more empowered version of herself is also an excellent work. Emma has also clinched a few wins of her own like the Critics Choice and the Bafta. Something is telling me that despite Lily being highly favored, Emma will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Very often, an actor or actress who’s famous for notable roles will get a lot of renown for playing a character completely different from what you expect. Robert Downey Jr. may be recognized by face but he will become unrecognizable through his acting as you watch. Just like Cillian Murphy will make you question how to see J. Robert Oppenheimer, Downey Jr. will also make you question how to regard Lewis Strauss. Should you see him as an enemy of Oppenheimer’s? Is he jealous? Does he feel betrayed? Or through it all, does he still hold an admiration for him? Downey Jr. succeeds in doing all that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Performances in comedies commonly get the short end of the stick come Oscar time. Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance as Mary Lamb is deserving of the win. It often seems unorthodox for a heartbreaking scene to be shown in a comedy, but we get it when Mary has that moment of heartbreak as she hurts over the loss of her son. It’s one of the most heartbreaking scenes of the year, but The Holdovers still manages to be a comedy. Even Mary seems like a role fit for a comedy as she learns to live again as she’s reunited with her sister. It’s her transformations from starting off living her daily life to going to one extreme of emotions to the polar opposite at the end as why she deserves to win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Cord Jefferson – American Fiction

One of the most interesting things to happen in this category is the screenplay for Barbie had mostly received its awards and nominations in the Original screenplay category. A script based on a doll doesn’t seem like an adaptation of any kind. Despite that and despite winning the Critics Choice award in the Original category, weeks before the nominations were to be announced, they announced they would make a running in the Adapted category. The Barbie script succeeded in getting nominated.

Despite that, it’s still the script of American Fiction from Cord Jefferson that has won most of the awards and deserves to win. I mean the lack of proper representation of African Americans in the arts world is enough to disappoint people and even outrage some. Something makes me think if Spike Lee were to do his own adaptation of Erasure, it would be an angry drama. But Jefferson turns it into a comedy and lampoons the whole system of how the mostly-white liberal scene treats an obviously-pandering novel before release. The more Monk panders, the more buzz and renown he gets. Jefferson succeeds in making a story of a serious topic look like the circus it can be.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Justine Triet – Anatomy Of A Fall

If you’ve seen Anatomy Of A Fall. you too can get drawn into the story and never let go. It presents a fictional story you could see happening in real life and the big question of is the accused innocent or guilty? When you learn of the friction of the marriage, that will cause you to question even more. Meanwhile this is happening as the blind son doesn’t know what to think of his mother. Triet gives us a story that allows us to make our own judgement of the accused as well as through our judgement as the story goes, expose our own way of thinking and even possibly our prejudices. Even at the end, were still left with only our own judgement of Sandra as we reflect back. That’s why I feel she deserves to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

It’s usually in the major categories when I give my long-winded opinions. The only case I will give a long-winded opinion in the technical category section down below will be for the Animated Feature category. Only in very few categories where I feel I’m qualified to make such a judgement will you see me give a Should Win pick. So here are my picks for the technical winners:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This is the one technical Oscar category in which you’ll see me write a paragraph about since I’ve seen all three. For a look at my thoughts on all five, click here for my blog from yesterday. This year’s five contenders are a big mix. One is a Disney film or a Disney collaboration; it does seem like each year there need to be at least one Disney nominee. Two are foreign productions. One is from Netflix. Two are 2D animation and the three others with the latest 3D technology. Looking them over I give The Boy And The Heron my Should Win pick and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse my Will Win pick. The awards race has been a tight race between the two but I think the Spider-Verse film has the edge.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should Win and Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Should Win: Jacqueline Durran – Barbie
Will Win: Holly Waddington – Poor Things

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: 20 Days In Mariupol

BEST FILM EDITING

Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers Of The Flower Moon
Will Win: Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Zone Of Interest (United Kingdom)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell – Maestro

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
Will Win: “What Was I Made For” – Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: James Price, Shona Heath and Zsuzsa Mihalek – Poor Things

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Oppenheimer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Should Win and Will Win: The Creator

BEST AMINATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

Once again with my predictions comes six possible upsets that I most think can happen tomorrow night. Remember that despite the big awards buzz and predictions and awards clout, nothing is completely guaranteed. Here are the six biggest surprises I anticipate, and they’re listed in category order:

  • Lily Gladstone for Best Actress for Killers Of The Flower Moon
  • Tony McNamara for Best Adapted Screenplay for Poor Things.
  • The Boy And The Heron for Best Animated Feature
  • Jacqueline Durran for Best Costuming for Barbie
  • Robbie Robertson for Best Original Score for Killers Of The Flower Moon
  • Guardians of The Galaxy, Vol. 3 for Best Visual Effects

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Hopefully the show will run as smoothly as it went last year and without incident! I trust Jimmy Kimmel will do a good job like he did last year.

2023 Oscars Best Picture Review: Poor Things

Emma Stone plays a woman whom, thanks to a transplanted brain, is able to rid herself of the nasty men in her life in Poor Things.

There have been oddball romances before but Poor Things is something else. It’s interesting how some weird science can change a woman’s life for the better.

If you’ve seen Yorgos Lanthimos’ past films, you’ll know he doesn’t shy away from bizarre stories or an eccentric way of storytelling. Here, we have the story of a pregnant woman in Victorian England Dr. Godwin Baxter finds in the river dead from a suicide jump. Dr. Baxter brings her back to life, thanks to the transplant of the brain of her deceased unborn child and names her Bella. Soon his assistant Max McCandless falls in love with her. Unfortunately as Max is about to marry her, she is pursued by a swindler named Duncan Wedderburn who knows the story and wants to take full advantage of her naivety by being the one who marries her. He taker on travels to Lisbon, Alexandria and France with her but she’s too much for him to handle from giving away all his gambling money to the poor of Alexandria to living in a brothel in Paris. It’s through the women in the Paris brothel that she develops her empowerment and Duncan’s engagement with Bella falls apart. Just as she’s ready to marry Max, Duncan has a revenge plan. He reunites her with her former husband: a General named Alfie Blessington. It’s as he reminds her of her past as a woman named Victoria that she falls for him again. it’s of his controlling abusive nature that she’s reminded why she did her suicide jump from a bridge. Alfie things he’s got her, but Bella isn’t Victoria anymore and things change.

It’s funny how there are two films with the theme of female empowerment nominated for an Oscar. The first is Barbie and the messages of trying to achieve empowerment when you’re seen as the exact opposite was found very entertaining by the summer movie crowd. This film is not exactly a film that would win huge crowds. The film, nevertheless, is oddly charming. It is a surprise how a doctor who appears to be a Victorian Dr. Frankenstein is able to bring back the life of a wife who committed suicide through her unborn child’s brain, have her develop, and then find her empowerment though her bumpy road to recovering her thought. In her recovery, there were many opportunities for her to become prey again from Duncan to Alfie, but she always won in the end. Her naivety makes her give Duncan’s money winnings away in Alexandria, causing him to find her too much. Her time with the prostitutes in Paris gives her a great education with love and herself. Her new-found empowerment helped her see Alfie Farrington as the brute husband he was and why she jumped in the first place. This time, she knows how to deal with the man that drove her to kill herself in the first place.

Another funny thing is this film is not only the story of Bella but also the story about the men in her life. At first, you want to think that Dr. Baxter is the controlling one. He took her when he found her dead, removed the deceased unborn child, and performed the lobotomy. When you see all of his creations and all the living creatures of half-and-half animals, you think Bella is the latest subject for him to toy with. You also want to think Max McCandless is just a man who sheepishly does whatever Dr. Baxter tells him to do. That is until you learn of the other men that come into her life. Just as the two try to raise her, Duncan tries to take her into being his own toy, only to lose big-time. Just as McCandless tries to marry Bella, Duncan “reunites” her with Alfie and reminds her of her life as Victoria and of his brutish controlling nature which never changed. In the end, it’s Dr. Baxter and Max who end up being the best men in her life. Dr. Baxter performed the lobotomy that helped her forget herself as Victoria and become Bella. Max is the one who truly loved her and cared about her. It’s no wonder the two are happy to continue Dr. Baxter’s works post mortem.

Top respect should go to Yorgos Lanthimos. Hard to believe this is his first feature since The Favourite. Lanthimos is known for creating absurd situations and somehow make them understandable and watchable. Here, he does it again. He takes a case of a Frankenstein-like experiment and it succeeds in creating a story a woman stronger than she was before her suicide jump. And through her unborn infant’s brain! He knows how to make the odd entertaining and make it work. Also worth acknowledging is scriptwriter Tony McNamara. This story, which he adapts from an Alastair Gray novel, makes the bizarreness of it all understandable, oddly intelligent, and enjoyable. A story like this is one of the least likely places you’ll see a story of female empowerment, but it happens here!

Also excellent is the acting from Emma Stone as Bella/Victoria. Just as this film is Lanthimos’ comeback film, he reunites with Stone to do it! Doing a role of a woman with a transplanted infant brain and having to rapidly mature from and infant’s thinking to an adult’s thinking is a hard task to do even if this were a dramatic film. This role could have been a joke, but Emma knew how to make it work for the story. She makes Bella/Victoria into a believable character from her infant-like ways to her child-like naivety to her sexual maturity to her new-found empowerment. And to make the comedy of it all work to boot! An excellent accomplishment.

The film also has a lot of great supporting performances like Mark Ruffalo as the swindling Duncan Wedderburn who loses in the end. Also great is Willem Dafoe as Dr. Godwin Baxter. He is great in convincing you he’s less of a controlling mad scientist and more the best father figure Bella could have. Ramy Youssef is also great as Max McCandless. He does great work playing the man you think has the least chance of winning Bella’s heart, but does.

Where do I start with the technical accomplishments? I never anticipated a science fiction love story to come from Yorgos Lanthimos The costuming from Holly Waddington, the makeup and hairstyling team, the set design team, they all did a great job of taking the audience back to the past and mixing in futurism to fit the times. The cinematography from Robbie Ryan and the  music from Jerskin Hendrix add to the film’s enjoyment. The visual effects also did a great job in creating the mad science of Dr. Baxter. Especially the half-and-half animals. The effects were both funny and amazing.

Poor Things is a delightful mix of science fiction, romance and comedy. It first seems like the type of film you would not go out to see, but you’ll be glad you did.