Conclave

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

Oscars 2024 Best Pictures Reviews: Part Two

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

It does seem awkward for me to do five blogs of Best Picture contenders. It’s all about my writing. Last year my writing was so over the top, I had to post individual reviews instead of all ten within three blogs. This time as I was writing, I felt doing blogs consisting of two reviews each is a nice steady dose of my writing. Hope you like them. Now on with my next two reviews:

A Complete Unknown

I’ve seen musicographies before. I’ve seen how they told the story of the musician or even show one part of the musician’s life. This film is a case of telling a part of Bob Dylan’s life. It tells of how he goes from an unknown folk singer in Greenwich Village to being part of the main folk scene of the time to branching out on his own. One thing we often forget about is that in the early-1960’s folk music was seen by many young people as the antidote to Rock ‘N Roll. Rock ‘N Roll music was seen by them as filled with scandals, fabricated acts, and music done for money’s sake. Folk was regarded by them as the opposite. It was regarded as self-composed music, honest feeling and even having a word to say to the powers that be. Bob, having a liking to Rock ‘N Roll, did not sit well with fans of folk music. To add, the Folk scene was becoming as much like showbiz as Rock ‘N Roll itself. You could easily see why folk fans would be outraged by his Rock ‘N Roll schtick. Looking back, it leaves me wondering after that moment did Rock ‘N Roll change Folk or did Folk change Rock ‘N Roll? Neither genres have been the same since.

The unique thing about this film is that it’s as much about the person as the musician. Most of us have known Dylan through his music. He always spoke his mind in his music. The film shows things most of us have overlooked. There’s the time Bob is torn between the love of Joan Baez and Suzy Rosso and finds it hard to hold a relationship with either. There’s Bob desire to expand and grow as a musician while the folk scene wanted to her him perform his more legendary hits. There’s how Bob found guidance from Johnny Cash and regarded Woody Guthrie as a musical father figure. There’s how the folk scene became just as much of a clique as even the most commercial music scene. We see that in how the folk scene was all about those connected to Pete Seeger and the shows he helped organize. You can understand why Bob would rebel and do his electric show. Bob always wanted to do his own thing. At the end of it all, he was still Bob.

This is quite possibly the best work from James Mangold. For so long he’s created films in which have received Oscar nominations and wins, but left him empty handed. Films like Girl, Interrupted, Walk The Line, 3:10 To Yuma, Logan and Ford vs. Ferrari. He did get a scriptwriting nomination for Logan but it’s this film he finally gets nominated for Direction. Having directed Walk The Line, Mangold knows how to direct a musicography. With the story he co-adapts with Jay Cocks, Mangold shows Dylan as a musician, artist, flawed lover and rebel. He also captures the essence of what folk music was to do about, the folk music scene of the 60’s and the times very well. It’s easy to see why he has received this acclaim.

The film also excels through the excellence of the performance of Timothee Chalamet. I’ll admit I first thought Chalamet playing Bob Dylan was a bad idea. I could not see him doing it. He accomplished it very well by making it a three-dimensional performance when it could have been wooden or cartoonish. I’m impressed with his work. Also really great is Edward Norton as Pete Seeger. I know Edward knows how to get into character. Here he makes a very convincing performance as Seeger. Newcomer Monica Barbaro is also excellent as Joan Baez. The film is, in a way, also showing us the Joan Baez we never knew. Very different from her on-stage persona we’re so familiar with. Elle Fanning was also great as Sylvie Russo who faces a hard time trying to love Bob as his fame was starting to take off. Boyd Holbrook was also very convincing as Johnny Cash and Scoot McNairy was also great as woody Guthrie. Even though both performances had a short amount of screen time, they were still both good and convincing.

A Complete Unknown is not your typical musicography. It presents a Bob Dylan we never knew, a Joan Baez we never knew and a folk scene different from what we thought it was. It’s as revealing as it is great.

Conclave

There has been a lot of unhappy talk from a lot of Catholic people about the film. One thing we need to talk in mind is that this story is a fictional story based on the adaptation of a book. Watching it, the cardinals did not act very priest-like. It made the whole conclave look like a joyless sect. Throughout the film, there’s hardly any focus on the spirituality of the cardinals. As the election of a new Pope is happening, it appears they are all rivals against each other with animosity. It almost makes the election of the Pope look like a political election where candidates look to expose the dirt of their rivals in order to win votes. Maybe that’s the point of the film. To make a papal election look similar to that of a political election. Although they do a good job of making that connection, I’m still unhappy about how the bishops and cardinals were portrayed.

Although I was unhappy of how the conclave is depicted, I am not angry as I am well aware this is a fictional story. Besides none of us knows what goes on behind the scenes of electing a new Pope. One thing the film does do well is that it shows the complications of being inside the Catholic Church. Although the film doesn’t know much about the faith of the bishops and cardinals and makes them look similar to dirty politicians, each of the bishops and cardinals represent ways of thinking most common among Catholic leaders. I myself have complained that the Catholic Church feels more like an institution than a church, but we forget how big the Church is. The Catholic Church is almost 2,000 years old and has 1.3 billion members and has churches on all the world’s continents. In some nations, Roman Catholicism is the religion of the majority. With a church that big, there is bound to be differing opinions on various issues. Some have Bible-based answers for various issues, some base their opinions on Church-based teachings, and some just give their own rational thought. You can understand why a church this big will have a lot of conflicting opinions among its members and leaders. The various debates among the College of Cardinals are reflective of that. Then there’s the powers that be. As you can see in the film, the electing of a new Pope is not an easy thing. There’s knowing that the Pope they elect with become the epitome of the image and the morality of the Catholic Church. You can understand why choosing the right bishop or cardinal to be Pope will be a difficult.

This film is good at making the election of a new Pope look like an intense drama. It succeeds in doing it by inventing a clever ‘behind the scenes’ story and making it into an intense drama that will keep you focused. It may overdo it in terms of the various conflicts between the bishops and cardinals but the conflicts reflect the common mixed beliefs held by Catholics. Sometimes the squabbles over certain bishops in the running are reflective of squabbles of the various beliefs of many Catholics. A Church of 1.3 billion is too big to have everyone believing the same thing on each issue. Also the film reflects on difficulties, scandals and controversies that the Church has left unfixed over the years. Even how secrets unraveled behind the Church walls are representing how the Church has a lot of hidden secrets. The film also succeeds how getting the problem of the Papal election solved is best assisted by two people least expected. It’s first done by Sister Agnes who, by being a nun, is to exist in the background but she can’t hide her silence anymore on all that has happened. The second is Cardinal Benitez who seems like the candidate least likely to win, but after he made his powerful speech, he appeared to be the best choice to be Pope, only for his secret to be revealed after his election. The film gives an ending that leaves us with questions of what will happen next. That’s what a film should do.

This film is an excellent work from Edward Berger. With the script Peter Straughan adapted from the novel, Berger directs a film that takes a world event and turns it into a behind-the-scenes drama that will keep you intrigued in the drama more than you thought you would be. Although it’s off in its depiction of priests and bishops, it’s still a great work.

Also great is Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence. He performs the role of a priest whose spirituality is clashing with his role of leading the College Of Cardinals. He makes the stress look obvious. The performances of the various bishops from John Lithgow, Stanley Tucci and others were very good, despite more focus on the Cardinals’ arrogances. Isabella Rossellini is the surprise of the film. Playing Sister Agnes who can’t hide her silence anymore, she really provides needed impact to the story and her silent moments are as good at storytelling as her talking parts. Carlos Diehz is also great as the Cardinal who’s the best most mortal choice for Pope, but has a hidden secret. The film also has a lot of great technical merits like set designers Suze Davies and Cynthia Sleiter for creating a set that looks very much like the Vatican, costuming Lisy Christl in making the clergy costuming look perfect and composer Volker Bertelmann delivering a score that adds to the intensity of the drama.

Conclave may be off in their depiction of cardinals and the Church itself but it succeed in bringing up hot topics surrounding the Church as it succeeds in making an intense drama of a Papal election.

And there you go. Those two films are my second look at the Best Picture contenders of this years. More reviews of Best Picture nominees to come.