The image above shows the flags of the sixteen nations still in the running. The whole point of those 36 games of group play is to reduce the field of 24 to the 16 most worthy of advancing. After that, each round is a knockout match to pare down the field to the two to square off for the Euro Cup. The group play was quite interesting. A hat trick wasn’t scored but a lot of brilliant goals. There were four 0-0 games. I hate 0-0 games! There were a lot of controversial referee calls. Also a lot of shockers from teams one wouldn’t consider a favorite but made it through. For all the teams, none of the teams had a case of losing all three games. One group was a case of only a single win and the rest draws to decide. Another group was a case all four teams had a win, a loss and a draw. It must have been tough to decide the finishing order, which they eventually did.
On Saturday the 29th starts the knockout rounds. After all that group play to narrow the 24 to 16, the upcoming Round Of 16 is just a single game for each team to narrow the field of 16 to 8. The layout for the Round of 16 doesn’t make the same clear sense as the Round of 16 in a 32-team World Cup, but this is how UEFA arranges it. I just hope the tournament ends up with the right two in the final. In the meantime, here are my predictions for each match. Matches are in chronological order and my prediction for the winner will be bolded:
ROUND OF 16
Switzerland (Group A 2nd.) vs. Italy (Group B 2nd.): Switzerland finished 2nd in Group A without a loss. It all started with a 3-1 win to Hungary, then 1-1 draws to both Scotland and Germany. Italy opened well against Albania 2-1, lost to Spain 1-0 thanks to an own-goal and drew 1-1 against Croatia in the stoppage time at the end. For this match, I predict Switzerland to win on penalty kicks. The last time Switzerland lost to Italy was 1993.
Germany (Group A 1st.) vs. Denmark (Group C 2nd.): Being the host nation, Germany knew they had to deliver, and deliver well! They did just that opening the Euro with a 5-1 win over Scotland and a 2-0 win over Hungary. Their qualification guaranteed, they could afford to draw 1-1 against Switzerland. Denmark had the good fortune of drawing all three games in their group: 1-1 draws to Slovenia and England and ending with a scoreless draw to Serbia. For this game, I predict Germany to win because they’ve been better at delivering this tournament and making wins happen.
England (Group C 1st.) vs. Slovakia (Group D/E/F 3rd.) Group C was the group where five of the six games were draws. England delivered the only win: 1-0 against Serbia. With their scoreless draw to Slovenia and 1-1 draw to Denmark, that was enough to make them top Group C. Slovakia was in a group that was just as tight. All four Group E teams had a win, a draw and a loss. Slovakia’s win was to Belgium 1-0, their loss to Ukraine 2-1, and their draw to Romania 1-1. For this game I predict England. England has never lost to Slovakia in the six times they played. A single draw at Euro 2016 but never lost.
Spain (Group B 1st.) vs. Georgia (Group D/E/F 3rd.): Spain had it’s win of Group B guaranteed after the second game! They opened 3-1 against Croatia and did 2-1 against Italy. Their 1-0 win over Albania just was a bonus for straight wins. Georgia went from the surprise of qualifying to the surprise of this tournament. They lost their opener to Turkey 3-1, came back to draw against Czechia 1-1 and then win to Portugal 2-0. For this match, I predict Spain. The two have met head-to-head seven times and Spain only lost to Georgia once. Spain won the rest of the times..
France (Group D 2nd.) vs. Belgium (Group E 2nd.): A classic match! France finished second in Group D starting with a 1-0 win over Austria, the only Group F team to beat Austria, a scoreless draw to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw to Poland. Belgium started their Group E play with a surprise 1-0 loss to Slovakia, then came back with a 2-0 win to Romania and ended with a scoreless draw to Ukraine. For this, I think this will go to a draw with France winning on penalty kicks.
Portugal (Group F 1st.) vs. Slovenia (Group A/B/C 3rd.): Portugal not only clinched qualification after their first two games, but they also clinched first place in Group F in the process! A 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 win over Turkey is all it took. They could afford to lose to Georgia 2-0 and still top Group F! Slovenia was straight draws with 1-1 to Denmark, 1-1 to Serbia and ended with scoreless against Denmark. Despite the same goal differentials as Denmark, their extra yellow card caused them to finish third in the group. Portugal look on target but I think the game will go to Slovenia. Why? In the one time they ever met, a friendly just three months ago, Slovenia won 2-0.
Romania (Group E 1st.) vs. The Netherlands (Group A/C/D 3rd.): Romania began Group E with a 3-0 win over Ukraine, then endured a 2-0 loss to Belgium and ended it with a 1-1 draw to Slovakia. The Netherlands also had their own win, loss and draw in Group D. They began with a 2-1 win over Poland, a scoreless draw to France and a surprise 3-2 loss to Austria. The two have met 13 times and Netherlands have won nine times. I predict Netherlands to win again.
Austria (Group D 1st.) vs. Turkey (Group F 2nd.): Nobody expected Austria to go too far at Euro 2024. Even their 1-0 to France thanks to an own-goal didn’t help. Then came their 3-1 win over Poland and their 3-2 win over the Netherlands en route to topping Group D. Maybe Austria is a stronger team than we thought! Turkey began Euro 2024 with a 3-1 win over Georgia, endured a 3-0 loss to Portugal and came back to a 2-1 win over Czechia. The last time Austria and Turkey met was three months ago and Austria won 6-1. I expect Austria to win again.
QUARTERFINALS
Why do I predict quarterfinals before I even know who the quarterfinalists are? Do you know how tiring writing is? Anyways as in past years, I plan to take a short break and not publish my next Euro blog until just before the semifinals. With that in mind, I’ll go as if my predictions for the Round of 16 matches actually came true. So here are my thoughts:
Spain vs. Germany – They frequently meet and the results alternate: 26 previous meetings; 8 Spain wins; 9 Germany wins; 9 draws. I think this will be a tight match leading into a penalty kick round which Germany will win.
Slovenia vs. France – They’ve met three times in the past and France has won each time. Even though their last previous meeting was over 20 years ago, I don’t think much has changed. I expect France to win again.
Netherlands vs. Austria – It’s possible two teams that clashed in the Group stage could meet again this soon. If they do meet again, I anticipate a draw game with Netherlands to win on penalties.
England vs. Switzerland – They’ve met 27 times before but England has won nineteen times. I’m not expecting much to change this time so I think it will be a win for England again.
And there you have it. Those are predictions for the Round of 16 matches and my ‘estimates’ for the quarterfinals. All we have to do is wait for the games to play to see who really wins. In the meantime, you’ll get my next blog where I predict the semifinals.
PORTUGAL: Just a small tidbit of trivia. Two players from Euro 2004 –Cristiano Ronaldo and Ricardo Carvalho– are here in Euro 2016. Also a piece of irony: you know how Portugal lost to Greece in the 2004 Euro final? Well coach Fernando Santos coached the Greek team at the 2014 World Cup. Unlike 2004, Portugal come to the finals as the underdogs. And it’s easy to see why. All three of their Group Play games were draws. Their Round of 16 match against Croatia was won thanks to an extra time goal. Their quarterfinal against Poland was a 1-1 draw which Portugal luckily won on a flawless penalty shootout. They didn’t fully come alive until their semifinal against Wales which they won 2-0.
FRANCE: No member of France’s Euro-winning squad of 2000 is playing for France now. However the team is coached by Didier Deschamps who was the captain of the Euro-winning 2000 squad and was part of the 1998 world Cup winning squad.
Wales: Two of the biggest Cinderella teams at this Euro have been Iceland and Wales. In fact the Euro 2016 can best be remembered as the tournament where Gareth Bale finally came to prominence in international play. He’s one of only five players here that has scored three or more goals. In addition to Bale, other teammates had moments to shine too like Ashley Williams, Aaron Ramsey and the currently-unsigned Hal Robson-Kanu. In fact the whole team has performed as a solid unit winning matches over teams with bigger clout like Slovakia, Russia and especially #2 ranked Belgium 3-1 in the quarterfinals. Who decides these FIFA rankings anyways?
Germany: Germany faced a lot of expectations here at the Euro. They came as the reigning World Cup holders who were struggling to form a new team with new younger talent. They’ve done very well for the most part as they won 2-0 against Ukraine and 1-0 against Northern Ireland. Their big moment came in the Round of 16 when they beat Slovakia 3-0. Remarkable since Slovakia beat them 3-1 in a friendly one month earlier.
Portugal (8): This isn’t simply the time for The Navigators. More like this is the century for them. Back in the 20th century, the team only qualified for two World Cup and two Euros. Now they’ve made every World Cup since 2002. Not to mention every Euro since 1996. The team features legends like Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Alves, Nani and Pepe. The team also shows promise for their youth as they were finalists in the under-21 Euro last year. They team will come to France in hopes of shaking off their embarrassment from the 2014 World Cup of being ousted in the Group Stage. The team brought back Fernando Santos whom coached Greece at the 2014 World Cup. The squad for Euro 2016 features a wealth of talent both old and young. Since Brazil, the team has had a lot of key wins against Argentina, Belgium, Serbia and Italy. They’ve also had some key losses against France, Bulgaria, Russia and England. The players playing their best strengths and the right team chemistry should take them far in Euro 2016, if not win.
Iceland (35): Iceland amazes me. A nation of less than half a million people fielding a football team to be reckoned with. This is their first-ever Euro. They almost qualified for the 2014 World Cup going as far as the knockout stage against eventual qualifiers Croatia and even bringing them to a scoreless draw in the first match. They’ve even reached their highest FIFA ranking of 23rd for three months of last year. The team consist of members that play for a variety of teams throughout Europe across many different countries. Sweden’s Allsvenskan league is the national league with the most members of the national team. In the past two years, the team has had key wins against Turkey, Czech Republic, Greece and the Netherlands twice. However 2016 has shown the team struggle in Friendly play losing four of their seven matches including Norway, Denmark and the United States. France will be the first stage for them to prove themselves on an international level. Don’t count them out.
Hungary (18): I’m sure Hungary hates being known as a ‘blast from the past’ but it’s easy to dismiss them as that. It’s a long ways since their days of being the ‘Magical Magyars’ back in the 30’s and 50’s which include two World Cup finals appearances and Olympic gold in 1952. Their first signs of their prowess waning came in the 60’s. Despite finishing third in Euro 1964, they only went as far as the quarterfinals at both the 1962 and 1966 World Cups. Since 1966, the team has never made it past the Group Stage at the World Cup with their last appearance in 1986. Their last Euro appearance was in 1972. The demise of Communism led to less focus on Hungarian football talent and an eventual demise in world rankings including a worst-ever FIFA ranking of 86th in 1996. However Hungarian football is making a comeback as there is more funding for football and more development of players happening nationally. They’ve even hired a German, Bernd Storck, as their head coach. Most of the players play for Hungary’s OTP Bank Liga but there are four players that play for teams of Germany’s Bundesliga. They’ve had notable victories in the last two years against Finland, Norway and Albania and some notable draws against Croatia and Greece. They’ve also had some notable losses to Russia and Germany. France could be the stage for them to prove Hungary’s back.
Belgium (2): This seems to be the time for the Red Devils. They’ve shown a level of consistency and team play that has taken them to the top of FIFA’s World Rankings for the first time ever back in November 2015. What Belgium needs now is a landmark accomplishment. They have achieved third-place and a runners-up finish at the Euro before but that was all the way back in 1972 and 1980 respectively. Also their best World Cup result was a fourth place back in 1986. This is their first Euro since they co-hosted back in 2000. Back then the team wasn’t all there and it took a long time to get off the ground. Their first signs of success came around World Cup qualifying which led them to a quarterfinals finish in Brazil in 2014. Since the 2014 World Cup, Belgium has further extended its reputation of consistency winning twelve of their seventeen matches since. Notable opponents they’ve beaten in that time are France, Italy,Switzerland and Norway. Their only losses came to Portugal and Wales. No doubt they will come to France with something to prove and possibly have their best Euro ever.
Italy (15): Italy is traditionally one of the maverick countries of football. However every maverick country of football have their moments of big glory and their downtimes too. Now seems like the downtime for Azzurri. Their defense isn’t as strong. It’s not like the unbreakable defense they had back in the 90’s. Another thing Italy is missing is their consistency. Sure they were finalists at the last Euro and they finished third at the 2013 Confederations Cup. However they still have the frustration of failing to advance past the Group Stage of the last two World Cups. Their play since World Cup 2014 have had ups and downs of their own. Italy’s wins since include the Netherlands, Norway and Scotland. On top of that, they qualified for the Euro top of their group and without a loss. However they have had losses to Portugal, Belgium and Germany in the meantime. Euro 2016 could either be a time of redemption for them or a time of disappointment. It’s all in their hands.
Republic of Ireland (31): Ireland is a team that has moments of success in spurts. They’ve gone as far as the quarterfinals at the World Cup, back in 1990, but have never made it past the group stage in the two Euros they’ve played in. At the last Euro, they exited with the worst result of all teams losing all three games and a goal differential of -8. The team has rebounded considerably especially after being ranked 67th by FIFA back in 2013. Notable wins include Switzerland, Germany and the United States. They’ve only endure three losses: to Scotland, Poland and Belarus. They’ve also had some noteworthy draws to the Netherlands, Slovakia, England and Bosnia. It’s possible the Green Army could be one of the surprises here in Euro 2016.
Sweden (36): Sweden is a team struggling to get their greatness noticed. Sure, they have a star player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic but they have a talented full team too. Their recent results have not been the best as they failed to qualify for the last two World Cups and exited the last two Euros in the Group Stage. Interesting trivia fact: Sweden has never won a knockout game at the Euro. Since the 2014 World Cup which they sat out, they’ve had a mixed record. They’ve had wins against Denmark, Iran, Finland and Wales as well as draws against Russia and Norway. They’ve also had losses to France, Turkey, Austria, Russia and Finland. They will have to come together in France if they want to go further.
Albania (45): This is Albania’s first ever appearance not just at a Euro but at any major tournament. Albania may lack the past successes of the other three teams but they are very capable of pulling surprises. That was especially noteworthy during their first game of Euro 2016 qualifying against Portugal whom they beat 1-0. Portugal’s loss embarrassed the team enough to find a new head coach. They’ve delivered other surprise wins over the past two years like 3-0 to Serbia and 1-0 to France. Albania still has a ways to go to prove themselves further. They’ve lost to Austria and Italy and have drawn against Georgia and Kosovo. However Euro 2016 could prove to be the stage for another upset by the team. They’re in their best form ever so now’s the time.
Switzerland (14): Switzerland is a team that’s also either on or off. They’ve been on at the World Cup when people least expect it but they’ve also been off especially when they play at the Euro. In fact they’ve never made it past the Group Stage in the three previous Euros they’ve played in. The current team doesn’t have that consistent of a record right now. They may have had notable wins against Slovenia and Austria but they’ve also had notable losses against Belgium, England, Slovakia, Ireland and Bosnia-Hercegovina. The latter is a bit disheartening since current head coach Vladimir Petkovic is from Bosnia. However they will have to come alive in France if they want to develop their reputation.
Jon The Blogcentric 