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My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

Oscars 2024 Short Films Review: Documentary

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

You’re not done with watching the short films until you’ve seen the documentaries. Many of this year’s mix of nominees are of dark subject matter and are bound to spark discussion. There are two lighter documentaries based on the theme of music. Anyways, here are my thoughts on the nominees for Best Documentary Short Film:

Death By Numbers (dir. Kim A. Snyder) -The film focuses on Samantha Fuentes: poet, writer, school shooting survivor. She was a student at Parkland High School when on February 14, 2018, she was shot by shooter Nikolas Cruz. She was lucky to not be one of the 17 killed but she was among the 17 injured. Through her writings and her conversations with people, we hear her express her fears and her feelings as events involving this happen in 2022. There’s the trial for the sentencing, there’s the day of the verdict and there’s the day of the victim’s testimonies. As each event is approaching and each event passes, we see and hear Sam express her many feelings.

This is something you don’t often hear. This is the story of a person injured in school shooting, survived it, and has to face her attacker in court. The Parkland High School shooting has the highest fatality rate of all school shootings in the United States. The film shows the audience Samantha’s style of writing as she goes through her feelings before the testimony. They’re feelings of hurt, anger, sorrow, frustration, hatred for the shooter and her fears of the future. Her memories are haunting as she goes back to the day when she expected it to be another Valentine’s Day to seeing her attacker in the face before she was shot to remembering seeing two dead classmates. Then the moment where she finally breaks her silence. The film keeps you in the intensity of it all. That’s why I make this my Should Win pick.

I Am Ready, Warden (dir. Smriti Mundhra) – This is a chronological film focusing on the looming execution of John Henry Ramirez for the 2004 murder of Corpus Christi gas station attendant Pablo Castro. The film begins six days before the execution. John knows he’s about to die, but is relaxed about it. Also part of the film is Adam Castro, the son of the man John murdered in 2004, Jan Trujillo, a church leader who dealt with John during the last few years, Seth Kreutzer, the lawyer who’s trying to make a last-minute attempt to stop his execution, and 16 year-old son Israel Ramirez.

The film goes through the various feelings of the people involved. Six days before the execution is expected, Adam wants his death sentence carried out, Jan wants his to be spared and Israel wants him to live. Three days before the execution, Jan has her petition to Governor Abbott ready and Seth has his case ready to submit while Adam is still insistent on the death penalty. Then the day of the execution. John gives Israel one last phone call. Israel is in tears. Jan and her group show up along with Seth at the chamber. Adam listens into the broadcast. He’s waited for this day but when he hears John is dead, he doesn’t know if he should be happy or not. He’s in tears. The funeral for John happens. Then in an epilogue, we see Adam listen to the recorded apology from John made the day he was executed. Adam is left with mixed feelings but in the end, he accepts his apology.

It is a story of an upcoming execution. One of eighteen executions that occurred in the United States in 2022. This film could start a discussion about capital punishment. Beyond that, this film is a unique story because it starts with six days before the scheduled date. We learn of the crime John committed, how he fled to Mexico immediately, his eventual capture, trial and sentence. We see opinions from the sides of many people: the son of the man killed, the minister of the church John was counseled through while in prison, and the lawyer and advocates aiming for one last chance to stop his execution. We then see them again with three days to go and hear their feelings. Then the day of the execution. We learn John had a son. The son Izzy is introduced into the story. And then feelings after the execution. It’s unique not just for the very many angles of opinion we see and hear about John, but we learn of John himself and how he doesn’t fit the common terrible image of a death row inmate. In many ways the film could be seen as the redemption of Ramirez. It’s for you to decide. That’s why I decide this film is my WILL WIN pick.

Incident (dir. Bill Morrison) – The film starts with images of a zoom from Google maps to a street corner of Chicago on July 14, 2018. Soon, we see a police shooting happening. The man shot is Harith ‘Snoop’ Augustus who works at a nearby barbershop. The film then shows various angles of the aftermath from various police body cameras to surveillance footage. The film then goes back fifteen minutes earlier. It was a calm street corner, but there’s a high police presence as a heated trial involving a police brutality incident is awaiting its verdict. The film tells about Illinois’ various laws involving concealed carry and points out the five officers at the corner at the time. Two were probationary. Then we see the altercation that occurred and the actions of the officers. It’s filled with footage from both the ambulances, the angry onlookers and the officers who took the shooters away. The film ends with one more angle to view the shooting and if Snoop did attempt to pull a gun, as the two officers claimed he did.

Without a doubt, the story is about the corruption of the police force. The film does show the hidden racism of the officers as they think an African-American man is about to pull a gun on them. Snoop had a valid card to conceal. The film also shows their impulsiveness and incompetence as the two officers closest to snoop failed to turn their body cameras on. It also shows their irresponsibility as they try and make up excuses and defend what they did. As we learn the officers only got a slap on the wrist as punishment, the film also focuses on the problem of the protectiveness of the police: the ‘Blue Shield’ as it’s commonly called. It appears the point of the while film is to expose the truth and the problem. Watching the footage, you can form your own opinion about the incident with Snoop. Whatever opinion it is, you can agree Snoop did not deserve to die.

Instruments Of A Beating Heart (dir. Ema Ryan Yamazaki) – The film focuses on Ayame. She is a six year-old girl about to move on to the second grade. As part of the welcoming of the new first graders, there’s an opportunity to give them a musical greeting. The students greet them by playing Ode To Joy. Ayame wants to be part of it. She loses out on playing the drum but she wins playing the cymbals. Over the days, they have the rehearsal. Ayame is the one musician who is the most off. The music teacher verbally scolds her for not practicing. Ayame cried and loses confidence that she can have it right in time. Her teacher believes in her and the classmates are willing to help. In the end, all the students including Ayame deliver a great performance.

The film tells the uninterrupted, unnarrated story of a young six year-old girl simply trying to play the cymbal for the upcoming show. As we see the story, we learn a lot more. We also see schooling in Japan. We see it’s not just about teaching the children reading and math and, in this case, music. We also see them teach a set of values. We see them teach competition, but still befriend your rivals. We see them teach the importance of one learning what they need, but of others teaming up to help the other. We see a teacher shame Ayame for not practicing but also reminding her that she is able to do it. Even with the lunch break, we see the school placing importance on nutrition. As you watch the film, you’ll see it’s more than just a little girl playing the cymbal. It’s about moulding the young into being people for others as much as promoting achieving for one’s self.

The Only Girl In The Orchestra (dir. Molly O’Brien) -This film is a look at Orin O’Brien as she is approaching her retirement from the New York Philharmonic Orchestra for 55 years. A double bass player, Orin is a history maker. She is the first female musician with the New York Philharmonic. Most of the men did not like the idea of a female musician but conductor Leonard Bernstein loved her playing. The film goes through her childhood being the daughter of Hollywood actors, her pursuit of the double bass in her younger years, her joining the orchestra and years of performing, her teaching career, and her retirement from the orchestra. The film goes shows a lot like her teaching other students, her appearance at various events, the living conditions that cause her to move and the difficulties of having to give away her older basses.

After you see many a short documentary with a heavy topic, you will find this film a welcome relief. Finally something that’s not heavy and is a nice introspective. This film is actually directed by her niece Molly. The film takes into the out-of-the-ordinary life of Orin from the daughter of Hollywood actors to holding her own as a musician and conquering the sexism of the time. The film shows her career and her teaching with younger students as she passes on her knowledge to the next generation. The film shows as she retires from the New York Philharmonic and has difficulty deciding what to do after that. In some ways, the film is not just an intimate autobiography, but it’s also a portrait of a musician and their love for music. It’s possible this film could be the Most Likely Upsetter receiving votes from voters that prefer lighter fare.

And there you have it. That’s my review of the films in the category of Best Documentary Short Subject. That completes my reviewing of the short films nominated for the Oscars. If you want to check them out yourself, just go to shorts.tv .