O’Brien

My Predictions For The 98th Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 2025 Academy Awards are taking place later on this year: March 15th. My assumption is the broadcast of the Winter Olympic Games is what is holding it up this year. It has been done before that the Oscars would move to a later time to make room for the Winter Olympics. Conan O’Brien is back as host. He did such a good job last year, they made him host again this year. Makes sense that they have a comedian or the host of a late night show do the hosting. They’re normally the best at working it.

So now I finally have my predictions for all the categories. This year, I was able to see enough films to make up 100 of this year’s nominations. Many times, I felt I could have seen more. Still an impressive lot. So without wasting any more time, here are my predictions to win and even a few Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, kudos to Olly Gibbs for delivering another excellent Best Picture nominees poster. He knows how to do it! This year, the ten Best Picture nominees have the biggest monopoly of the nominations I’ve seen in years. Eighty of the 125 nomination! That’s more than 60% right there! Sinners and their record-setting total of nominations has what averages out to be one of every eight nominations. Interestingly enough, the second-most nominated film One Battle After Another amassed thirteen nominations: one short of the old record! For acting nominations, Sinners, One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value combined have eleven of the twenty acting nominations and the rest is nine nominations among nine films! Despite all this dominating of nominations, they’re quite well-spread out. None of the Best Picture nominees has less than four nominations. For the Best Picture race, the year looks to be the race between the strong summer sleeper contender and the winter surprise hit, but that will be decided on the 15th. So here are my short reviews and my prediction for Best Picture:

Bugonia- It’s something that of the three films by Yorgos Lanthimos that have been nominated for Best Picture, Emma Stone has acted in all three! This film has less buzz than the other two: The Favourite and Poor Things. The other two were better as they mixed bizarre humor with the scenarios. This also mixes humor but having a present setting seems odd for a Lanthimos film. It’s lack of buzz is why I feel it won’t win.

F1- I don’t know if you feel the same way but I like seeing a summer movie get nominated for Best Picture. The story and the acting were way better than most summer movies. It’s not just any movie about auto racing. It’s a movie the auto racing federation fully endorsed and includes actual F1 racers including some of the best. As for a contender for Best Picture, its only other three nominations are in the technical categories. It’s chances of winning this category are slim to none.

Frankenstein- If there’s one director who you can trust to do an excellent new adaptation to the Frankenstein story, it’s Guillermo del Toro. It’s an excellent thriller to watch and you will get caught up in the drama. This film has enough qualities to deserve its Best Picture nomination but this year, the Academy is not up for thrillers such as these. On top of it, there have been other thrillers that can compete with this.

Hamnet- Is it possible to have a story about the death of a child have a happy ending? Hamnet proves it’s so. This is an excellent film and an excellent story of love, happiness, loss, tragedy and healing. The film is less a historical docudrama and more of a story of how one woman deals with the heartbreak of loss and how she finds healing in the play her husband creates. This film does have a lot of qualities worthy for it to win Best Picture, but this is a tough year for films like these to contend.

Marty Supreme- At first, you wouldn’t think a film about ping-pong in the 1950’s would make for a hit movie but Marty Supreme does it! A lot of it is the underdog story of a ping pong player who constantly gets himself into trouble and embarrassment to beat the odds. A lot of it is also Timothee Chalamet’s performance. The direction from Josh Safdie definitely helps a lot. It is a good contender for the Best Picture win but there are other films with bigger chances.

One Battle After Another- This year, there doesn’t seem to be as many political films. This film has to be the most political. A mixed-race girl whose white supremacist father wants her dead. A former renegade who’s trying to protect her in the name of her mother and his girlfriend. Definitely a dramatic comedy that will keep you intrigued. It’s the story and Paul Thomas Anderson’s know-how in working a story like this that I make it my Will Win pick.

The Secret Agent- It’s something that this is the second straight year a Brazilian film is nominated for Best Picture! It’s deserving as it mixes humor with the story and keeps the drama without dropping the sincerity of the film’s ending. However for a foreign language film to win Best Picture, it has to really stand out in the competition and this film is missing that quality.

Sentimental Value- The increase in the number of foreign-language films nominated for Best Picture is easy to understand if you see the film. This film is excellent for its storytelling and its acting. It’s a drama of a theme many can relate to and mixes the theme of art in family conflict. It’s an excellent drama but for Best Picture, it is up against tougher competition.

Sinners- If there’s one film of 2025 that deserves to be called a masterpiece, this is it. A horror story that blends music, folk legends, the supernatural, demon spirits, and the theme of racism and Jim Crow laws. Definitely a story that’s unforgettable and grabs your attention from start to finish. That’s why I declare this film my Should Win pick and my pick for most likely to upset.

Train Dreams- The film feels like a nice piece of Americana. Just as much as the novel it’s based on feels like a piece of Americana. It does a great job of giving the audience the feel of the area it’s set in as it tells the story. As for its Best Picture chances, it doesn’t have a good shot as there is tougher competition.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

The Best Director category is one contest where it is too tough to call. Two great directors directing the two most lauded films of 2025. One is set in the past while another is an adapted story set to the present. Both of them mix politics into their stories. Both of them have something to say. It’s a tough call but I think Paul Thomas Anderson will take it. It’s a career of almost 30 years that started with his 1996 debut Hard Eight. He first caught the Academy’s eye with 1997’s Boogie Nights where he got his first Oscar nomination for screenplay. He got his first Best Director nomination for 2007’s There Will Be Blood. Further acclaim would grow with Inherent Vice, Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza. Many cinephiles look to One Battle After Another to finally be his time.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

The Academy has some interesting factoids about how picky and choosy they are about awarding certain Oscars. One out of every three Best Actress Oscar wins have gone to actresses before their 30th birthday. The most recent, Mikey Madison, was last year. As of today, only one Best Actor Oscar win went to an actor before his 30th birthday. The most recent, Adrien Brody, is that actor but he won for The Pianist in 2003. Last year, Timothy Chalamet had a chance to break that record with A Complete Unknown. Although he can’t break that record as he just turned 30 in December, his performance is Marty Supreme looks poised to do that. The only thing is there was surprise at SAG’s Actor awards with Michael B. Jordan winning for Sinners.

Not only has Jordan’s win been seen as a big boost, but lately Chalamet’s talk has been making headlines for negative reasons. It wasn’t just his comments on ballet and opera. Some time ago, he said Hollywood stars should stop being pretentious. That can boost Jordan’s chances of winning. Even without the eyebrow-raising talk of Chalamet, Michael’s performance as two twin brothers of differing personalities and one being possessed by the spirit is excellent work deserving of the Oscar. Chalamet still remains as my pick for the one most likely to upset.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

I am going to make my write-up here short because I’m that confident about here win. She’s that clear of a favorite because this happens to be the best actress performance of the year. In a film about a play inspired by a tragedy to William Shakespeare, it’s the performance of the actress playing his wife is what makes the film. Jessie’s performance of Agnes Shakespeare is loaded with dimension and will touch you. Her performance sets the mood of the film and gives character to a famous playwright’s wife whom few know much of. Her performance of going from having the joy of life to hurting from tragedy to a triumph of healing at the end is just completely remarkable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

It’s often the case that one of the toughest categories to predict the winner is in the supporting acting categories. And understandably so. It’s a question of which supporting performance stole the show? Which performance qualifies as lead? Which performance brought the most during its short time? It’s hard to decide. This year’s contenders don’t make it any easier. Despite winning the SAG Actor award, I have a feeling Sean Penn won’t win. He’s won two Oscars before. I also feel his One Battle After Another co-star Benicio del Toro won’t win because he won back in 2000 for Traffic.

I feel the win will go to the Golden Globe winner, Stellan Skarsgård. Skarsgård could arguably qualify to make a running for lead actor. His performance as the father trying to make amends with his relationships with his daughters and his film work is both intense and touching. He really magnifies someone who’s both flawed and troubled, but seeks to make things right, despite his shortcomings. I feel he should win it.

Should Win and Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons

It’s interesting in this category. A mixed bag of winners throughout this season. Wunmi taking the BAFTA, Teyana taking the Golden Globe, and Amy taking the SAG and Critics Choice. I have to go with Amy. It’s easy to think that she, not Julia Garner, is the lead actress. She does a great job of playing a villain who’s both manipulative and threatening. She does a convincing job of playing a villain who knows how to instill fear in a child and mess with adults. Her performance has a lot to do with why Weapons is a box office hit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

I’m sure most of you have not read the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland. If you haven’t, it shouldn’t make much of a difference in terms of watching the film. Still worth reading. Nevertheless the theme of ‘fascist Nixonian repression’ that is present in the novel appears very similar to what the United States is going through now. It makes great sense for Paul Thomas Anderson to adapt the story into a scenario fit for the present and with themes of extremism between the left and the right and physical clashes between them that mirror what’s happening today. It also succeeds in adding comedic elements to the film. This is nothing short of an accomplishment.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win and Will Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners

I have to say the 2020’s is the decade the horror movie genre is finally getting its overdue respect. One film of this year to add to its respect is Sinners. It’s more than just vampires and evil spirits. It’s folk legends, music, vampirism and the theme of racism that’s mixed into this story that makes this film a masterpiece. Usually film companies save the films with the best Oscar chances for December. This past summer delivered one for this history books!

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

This year, the favorites to win the Oscars appears to be more solid than most years. Also this year, it’s an even balance in both the major categories and the technical categories of solid favorites and potential upsetters. They’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

How about that? In a category Disney or Pixar win most of the time, they’ve only won once in the 2020’s. This decade has seen a lot of film studios deliver an Oscar-winning film. This year, it looks to be Sony Pictures Animation in cooperation with Netflix. A movie about a K-pop trio who has what it takes to slay demons is the most winning animated film this year. Its wins at this year’s Annie Awards was even ten-for-ten! Hard to see any rivalry in this category.

BEST CASTING

Should Win And Will Win: Francine Maisler – Sinners

This is the newest Oscar category. The Oscar gets awarded to the casting director and this award is boosted by having the Casting Director branch of the Academy that opened in 2013 and now totals 160 in 2026 and can now finally choose the nominees fort this category. With this being the debut year for this Oscar category, there are only a few awards shows that give out this award. There’s the Critics Choice, the BAFTAs, the Astras, there’s the SAG Award for Best Acting Ensemble which can have some impact and the profession’s guild, the Casting Society of America, has their Artios Awards. Maybe there will be more next year. Most of these awards have given the win to Sinners. It would not surprise me if Francine Maisler makes history in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win:  Kate Hawley – Frankenstein

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win:  The Perfect Neighbor

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Frankenstein

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win and Will Win: Ludwig Goransson – Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win:  “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau – Frankenstein

BEST SOUND

Will Win: F1: The Movie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will Win: All The Empty Rooms

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be some shockers but mostly clear favorites. Nevertheless it’s the way every year that the Oscars are not immune to upsets. For this section, I will only limit myself to five potential shockers for Sunday night

  • Sean Penn from One Battle After Another winning Best Supporting Actor.
  • Autumn Durald Arkapaw winning Best Cinematography for Sinners.
  • Mr. Nobody Against Putin winning Best Documentary.
  • Sentimental Value (Norway) winning Best International Feature Film (Also my Should Win pick).
  • “I Lied To You” from Sinners winning Best Original Song.

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. It may have come late in the year, but it’s a good thing as you’ll have warmer weather for your Oscar parties.

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

Oscars 2024 Short Films Review: Documentary

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

You’re not done with watching the short films until you’ve seen the documentaries. Many of this year’s mix of nominees are of dark subject matter and are bound to spark discussion. There are two lighter documentaries based on the theme of music. Anyways, here are my thoughts on the nominees for Best Documentary Short Film:

Death By Numbers (dir. Kim A. Snyder) -The film focuses on Samantha Fuentes: poet, writer, school shooting survivor. She was a student at Parkland High School when on February 14, 2018, she was shot by shooter Nikolas Cruz. She was lucky to not be one of the 17 killed but she was among the 17 injured. Through her writings and her conversations with people, we hear her express her fears and her feelings as events involving this happen in 2022. There’s the trial for the sentencing, there’s the day of the verdict and there’s the day of the victim’s testimonies. As each event is approaching and each event passes, we see and hear Sam express her many feelings.

This is something you don’t often hear. This is the story of a person injured in school shooting, survived it, and has to face her attacker in court. The Parkland High School shooting has the highest fatality rate of all school shootings in the United States. The film shows the audience Samantha’s style of writing as she goes through her feelings before the testimony. They’re feelings of hurt, anger, sorrow, frustration, hatred for the shooter and her fears of the future. Her memories are haunting as she goes back to the day when she expected it to be another Valentine’s Day to seeing her attacker in the face before she was shot to remembering seeing two dead classmates. Then the moment where she finally breaks her silence. The film keeps you in the intensity of it all. That’s why I make this my Should Win pick.

I Am Ready, Warden (dir. Smriti Mundhra) – This is a chronological film focusing on the looming execution of John Henry Ramirez for the 2004 murder of Corpus Christi gas station attendant Pablo Castro. The film begins six days before the execution. John knows he’s about to die, but is relaxed about it. Also part of the film is Adam Castro, the son of the man John murdered in 2004, Jan Trujillo, a church leader who dealt with John during the last few years, Seth Kreutzer, the lawyer who’s trying to make a last-minute attempt to stop his execution, and 16 year-old son Israel Ramirez.

The film goes through the various feelings of the people involved. Six days before the execution is expected, Adam wants his death sentence carried out, Jan wants his to be spared and Israel wants him to live. Three days before the execution, Jan has her petition to Governor Abbott ready and Seth has his case ready to submit while Adam is still insistent on the death penalty. Then the day of the execution. John gives Israel one last phone call. Israel is in tears. Jan and her group show up along with Seth at the chamber. Adam listens into the broadcast. He’s waited for this day but when he hears John is dead, he doesn’t know if he should be happy or not. He’s in tears. The funeral for John happens. Then in an epilogue, we see Adam listen to the recorded apology from John made the day he was executed. Adam is left with mixed feelings but in the end, he accepts his apology.

It is a story of an upcoming execution. One of eighteen executions that occurred in the United States in 2022. This film could start a discussion about capital punishment. Beyond that, this film is a unique story because it starts with six days before the scheduled date. We learn of the crime John committed, how he fled to Mexico immediately, his eventual capture, trial and sentence. We see opinions from the sides of many people: the son of the man killed, the minister of the church John was counseled through while in prison, and the lawyer and advocates aiming for one last chance to stop his execution. We then see them again with three days to go and hear their feelings. Then the day of the execution. We learn John had a son. The son Izzy is introduced into the story. And then feelings after the execution. It’s unique not just for the very many angles of opinion we see and hear about John, but we learn of John himself and how he doesn’t fit the common terrible image of a death row inmate. In many ways the film could be seen as the redemption of Ramirez. It’s for you to decide. That’s why I decide this film is my WILL WIN pick.

Incident (dir. Bill Morrison) – The film starts with images of a zoom from Google maps to a street corner of Chicago on July 14, 2018. Soon, we see a police shooting happening. The man shot is Harith ‘Snoop’ Augustus who works at a nearby barbershop. The film then shows various angles of the aftermath from various police body cameras to surveillance footage. The film then goes back fifteen minutes earlier. It was a calm street corner, but there’s a high police presence as a heated trial involving a police brutality incident is awaiting its verdict. The film tells about Illinois’ various laws involving concealed carry and points out the five officers at the corner at the time. Two were probationary. Then we see the altercation that occurred and the actions of the officers. It’s filled with footage from both the ambulances, the angry onlookers and the officers who took the shooters away. The film ends with one more angle to view the shooting and if Snoop did attempt to pull a gun, as the two officers claimed he did.

Without a doubt, the story is about the corruption of the police force. The film does show the hidden racism of the officers as they think an African-American man is about to pull a gun on them. Snoop had a valid card to conceal. The film also shows their impulsiveness and incompetence as the two officers closest to snoop failed to turn their body cameras on. It also shows their irresponsibility as they try and make up excuses and defend what they did. As we learn the officers only got a slap on the wrist as punishment, the film also focuses on the problem of the protectiveness of the police: the ‘Blue Shield’ as it’s commonly called. It appears the point of the while film is to expose the truth and the problem. Watching the footage, you can form your own opinion about the incident with Snoop. Whatever opinion it is, you can agree Snoop did not deserve to die.

Instruments Of A Beating Heart (dir. Ema Ryan Yamazaki) – The film focuses on Ayame. She is a six year-old girl about to move on to the second grade. As part of the welcoming of the new first graders, there’s an opportunity to give them a musical greeting. The students greet them by playing Ode To Joy. Ayame wants to be part of it. She loses out on playing the drum but she wins playing the cymbals. Over the days, they have the rehearsal. Ayame is the one musician who is the most off. The music teacher verbally scolds her for not practicing. Ayame cried and loses confidence that she can have it right in time. Her teacher believes in her and the classmates are willing to help. In the end, all the students including Ayame deliver a great performance.

The film tells the uninterrupted, unnarrated story of a young six year-old girl simply trying to play the cymbal for the upcoming show. As we see the story, we learn a lot more. We also see schooling in Japan. We see it’s not just about teaching the children reading and math and, in this case, music. We also see them teach a set of values. We see them teach competition, but still befriend your rivals. We see them teach the importance of one learning what they need, but of others teaming up to help the other. We see a teacher shame Ayame for not practicing but also reminding her that she is able to do it. Even with the lunch break, we see the school placing importance on nutrition. As you watch the film, you’ll see it’s more than just a little girl playing the cymbal. It’s about moulding the young into being people for others as much as promoting achieving for one’s self.

The Only Girl In The Orchestra (dir. Molly O’Brien) -This film is a look at Orin O’Brien as she is approaching her retirement from the New York Philharmonic Orchestra for 55 years. A double bass player, Orin is a history maker. She is the first female musician with the New York Philharmonic. Most of the men did not like the idea of a female musician but conductor Leonard Bernstein loved her playing. The film goes through her childhood being the daughter of Hollywood actors, her pursuit of the double bass in her younger years, her joining the orchestra and years of performing, her teaching career, and her retirement from the orchestra. The film goes shows a lot like her teaching other students, her appearance at various events, the living conditions that cause her to move and the difficulties of having to give away her older basses.

After you see many a short documentary with a heavy topic, you will find this film a welcome relief. Finally something that’s not heavy and is a nice introspective. This film is actually directed by her niece Molly. The film takes into the out-of-the-ordinary life of Orin from the daughter of Hollywood actors to holding her own as a musician and conquering the sexism of the time. The film shows her career and her teaching with younger students as she passes on her knowledge to the next generation. The film shows as she retires from the New York Philharmonic and has difficulty deciding what to do after that. In some ways, the film is not just an intimate autobiography, but it’s also a portrait of a musician and their love for music. It’s possible this film could be the Most Likely Upsetter receiving votes from voters that prefer lighter fare.

And there you have it. That’s my review of the films in the category of Best Documentary Short Subject. That completes my reviewing of the short films nominated for the Oscars. If you want to check them out yourself, just go to shorts.tv .