Wicked

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

Oscars 2024 Best Picture Reviews: Part Five

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

All this writing does get tiring after awhile. Despite it, I have no problem blogging my thoughts on the Best Picture nominees. So here’s my fifth and last blog on the nominees:

The Substance

If you were to have a debate on the one genre of film that the Oscars seems to neglect the most, I’ll bet horror will come out on top. Only seven horror films have been good enough to get nominated for Best Picture. The Substance becomes the latest. Actually it was also a nominee for the Palme d’Or at Cannes. It tells the story of movie star Elisabeth Sparkle whose career has ended and feels a certain substance recommended from a doctor can do that very trick. It gives her another person coming out of her: Sue. The other person is half her age and the two are to switch lives every seven days. Problem is the other person is getting all the benefits her life used to have, like her old job back and attracting rich men. Sue also starts violating the directions of the medicines and using Elisabeth more and more. As New Year’s is coming and Sue is expected to be the star of the New Year’s Eve special, mayhem erupts. I can’t describe any more of the bizarreness without delivering a spoiler or two.

What makes this horror film better than most horror films is that it has a common theme. The theme is of the ageism and sexism women face in showbusiness from managers dealing with show’s ratings to stakeholders who expect to win to crowds who expect a picture-perfect princess and will throw her away when they get bored  with her, replacing her with a new next big thing. That is very evident throughout the film as we hear what her boss Harvey says, of what casting directors say and of what the crowd expects. The thing is Elisabeth takes her rejection badly because we soon learn her stardom is the only thing in her life. She has nothing else. She feels if she takes this substance, she can get her life back. Problem is she gets another life. Instead of it being a case like the two are one, as instructed from that substance, one vies for control of the other and it’s reduced to hate between the two. I gotta say carrying on a habit of one is active one week while the other is active the next week, that would be something hard to keep up without error. There’s bound to be a slip-up and boy will it be messy.

Now I know most of you will say you’ve seen all sorts of horror movies and that you’ve been shocked by this stuff before. I guarantee you that you will be either shocked or surprised. You have a feeling that this switching of bodies will have a ness-up sooner or later but I’m sure the mess-up you thought would happen didn’t or went a different way. Even that New Year’s Eve show, you probably expected it to wreak some sort of havoc, but I’ll bet it’s not the havoc you expected to happen. It also seems the New Year’s Eve show incident with all its goriness is a case of Elisabeth getting revenge with those who threw her away. The story has a lot of common elements you have seen in past horror movies but it succeeds in having many an unpredictable or unexpected moment. That’s what makes this horror film special. The shocks and gory scenes you anticipated but didn’t expect it to play out the way you thought it would. Even the ending, which I will not spoil at all, plays itself out in unexpected fashion.

Top accolades have to go to director/writer Coralie Fargeat. Upon Fargeat’s nomination, the 2020’s five female nominations in the Best Director category equal the total of all previous years combined. This is actually the second feature-length film Fargeat has directed. Here, Fargeat succeeds in delivering a thriller of a horror film that says a lot about its theme and has many of the silent scenes do a lot of talking of the story. Fargeat proves that women can do horror films! And a gory bloodbath of one to boot!

Making the film work is Demi Moore. She does an excellent job of playing an insecure movie star whose career is her life and takes a medicine that could end up being the death of her. Her character switch to the tormented monster of herself was also incredible. It would not surprise me if she wins the Oscar. Also great is Margaret Qualley for playing Sue who’s supposed to be one with Elisabeth but her new-found fame prevents her and starts using Elisabeth, only to pay in the end. Also great is Dennis Quaid. His performance as Harvey the manager is cartoonish, but Fargeat wants it that way for the vibe of the movie. He did a great job in being both comical and hateable at the same time. For the technical achievements, there’s Benjamin Kracun and his cinematography which adds to the storytelling, make-up artist Pierre-Olivier Persin delivering the right makeup for the right gory scenes, the visual effects team for the insane special effects and Raffertie for the perfect techno score for the film.

The Substance is just the horror film you need. It’s a way better story than most horror films you’ve seen and it will deliver the unexpected. I guarantee you.

Wicked: Part One

This movie is bound to attract two standout audiences: those that liked the musical in its theatrical run and those Wizard Of Oz fans that are intrigued of a prequel. It’s interesting how The Wizard Of Oz story has enchanted people for over a century. To have a prequel-like story of how the witch and Glinda met in school is bound to catch people’s intrigue. Even ask questions. Like was the witch’s name really Elphaba? Even the character who would become the wicked witch of the east would have a name: Nessarose. Was high school just as bad in Oz as it is in real life? You mean the witch didn’t really start as evil? You mean Glinda’s real name is Galinda? How was Glinda able to befriend the witch? It really has you thinking. It will even have you thinking about the Wizard Of Oz too. Since the musical has been popular for twenty years, I feel the film adaptation came out at the right time. It does make one wonder why the film is billed as Wicked: Part One and if a Part Two is needed instead of the whole musical in one film.

In watching part one, it begins with the people of Oz celebrating the witch’s death and Glinda given a hero’s welcome. Then the revelation of the secret that Glinda knew the witch in high school. That’s where Glinda tells her story. Throughout the story, we learn how the witch was born the black sheep, or in this case green sheep, of the family while her younger sister was seen as a princess. Even the wheelchair didn’t harm Nessarose’s princess image. When high school begins, Elphaba gets singled out and nobody wants to befriend. As Glinda unintentionally becomes Elphaba’s roommate, Glinda becomes a positive influence on Elphaba and helps her find her true self, use her intelligence to be a force for good, and ultimately bring down the corruption happening in Oz. The film ends with Elphaba singing about her turn to fly and it sets up for a ‘To Be Continued’ ending.

Although this film is just a part one of a musical, the film itself is a good story of the popular girl befriending the misfit girl and bringing out the best in her. It’s also a good nerd-to-queen story for Elphaba. Even having the ability popular boy Fiyero. Near the end where we learn of how Oz is imprisoning animals and Elphaba learns of the corruption going on from the Wizard, it’s there where she learns to take a stand for what she believes in and her rebellious side comes out of her shell. It’s right at the end she flies off and celebrates her personal identity and her new-found confidence in herself as Glinda supports her on. As a film itself instead of a Part One, it works as a story about finding one’s confidence, learning to embrace being different and make your best qualities winning qualities. As a musical, it’s entertaining and colorful from start to finish. It may not have the same vibe as the classic Wizard Of Oz but it will entertain you.

And there’s the film as the Wizard Of Oz prequel. Many of us who have seen or read The Wizard Of Oz but never seen Wicked onstage, like myself, will know how it all turned out. The sister is killed by Dorothy’s house, Glinda makes Dorothy a hero, the witch (who doesn’t have the name Elphaba) wants revenge on Dorothy and to get her sister’s ruby slippers, chases Dorothy down her trip to Oz and threatens her and her friends along the way, and is killed by a splash of water. If you have not seen the musical like I have, the film will get you thinking how did Elphaba become evil? Did Nessarose also become evil? If Elphaba and Glinda befriended each other in high school, how did they have their eventual falling out? This film succeeds in getting us to anticipate it all in the ‘prequel sequel’ which is expected in Winter 2025 and will be titled Wicked: For Good.

This is a great accomplishment for director Jon M. Chu. In the last fifteen years, the films he has directed have been a wide range like dance films like the two Step Up sequels, action film G.I. Joe: Retaliation, music film Jem And The Holograms and romantic comedy Crazy Rich Asians. Here he tries his luck with a Broadway musical with the screenplay adapted by Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox. He succeeds greatly in making it entertaining for audiences to watch and for making for a dazzling story. It’s not an easy task to adapt a musical to the screen but he does it very well.

Top credit goes to Cynthia Erivo for playing Elphaba. Cynthia has established herself as a triple-threat in entertainment and one of the biggest rising talents around. Here, she does it again as she not only captures the role well but is also able to play young convincingly and sing excellently. This should add to her achievements. Also great is Ariana Grande. Although I’m not a fan of her or her music, she appeared to be the best choice to play Glinda in this movie adaptation. She is very good at capturing Glinda’s princess side, sings the songs very well, and plays the part excellently as well. Also great is newcomer Jonathan Bailey. Although he doesn’t stand out as much as Elphaba or Glinda, he does a great job of playing popular rebel Fiyero and makes his singing and dancing look effortless. The supporting performances of Michelle Yeoh as Madame Morrible and Jeff Goldblum as the Wizard, added to the film despite the small amount of screen time.

You can’t give accolades to Wicked if you don’t include the top technical qualities. There’s the editing work of Myron Kerstein which makes the film work right. There’s the costuming from Paul Tazewell which goes beyond what one would expect to being costumes and outfits you’d see in Oz. There’s also the makeup and hairstyling team that makes for the dazzling hairstyles, the original score from John Powell and Stephen Schwartz that blends in excellently with the songs and the visual effects team that does a great job in bringing back the magic of Oz, and then some.

Wicked is a great adaptation of a musical that will dazzle many a crowd. Whether you’re a fan of musicals, or a fan of Wicked, a fan of The Wizard Of Oz or even a fan of the stars, you will enjoy it.

And there you have it! This is my last blog of reviews of the Best Picture contenders for the 2024 Academy Awards. My blogs where I review the nominated short films are coming soon.