UEFA Euro 2024: My Prediction For The Final

Will Spain win its record-setting fourth Euro?
Or will England win its first ever?

In the last while, I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about continental championships and some people going as far as saying some are jokes of tournaments. Continental or confederation championships are not jokes. I think it’s a good idea that the continent’s best play each other. Also they can be challenging competitions themselves. The opponents from your confederation know your team better than other teams in the world. You could win your continental championship one year but fail to qualify for the World Cup another year. They’re a tough competition all themselves.

The Euro has been one tough competition. The defending champions went out in the Round of 16, the bronze medalists from the World Cup went out in the Group Stage, the hosts went out in the quarterfinals and a finalist from the World Cup went out in the semifinals. 114 goals have been scored in the 50 matches, ten of them own-goals, seven red cards have been handed out as well as a total of over $1,000,000 in fines to national teams for bad fan behavior. Now it’s time for the dust to settle and for the final to be played. One team has won the Euro three times before and played in one additional previous final. The other team makes it their second consecutive Euro final which is also their second ever! So let’s have a look at the two Euro finalists. Spain and England: same two finalists as in the Women’s World Cup last year!

Head-To-Head Statistics:

They’ve met 27 times before in the past, including three past Euro games. Spain was won ten games, England won fourteen and three were ties.

Team Breakdown:

SPAIN:

We’ve seen a lot of teams who gave bad performances at the 2022 World Cup or teams that failed to qualify for Qatar continue to give a lackluster performance. On that same token, we also saw teams that did well in Qatar 2022 fall short here in Germany. There are also some teams that either did not qualify for the 2022 World Cup or did bad in Qatarthat have shown considerable improvement since. The most noticeable is Spain. La Furia Roja didn’t live up to their name at the 2022 World Cup as they were ousted in the Round Of 16 by eventual semifinalists Morocco. Immediately after, they hired a new coach: Luis de la Fuente. De la Fuente is a coach who likes to focus more on the young or on rising talents. A grassroots approach. It has paid off noticeably as last year, Spain won the UEFA Nations League final. Germany 2024 would show Spain had more to prove. Here in Germany, they’ve won every game without having to resort to a penalty shootout, scoring thirteen goals and only conceding three. Sure, their win over Germany in the quarterfinals came in added extra time but so far, Spain has had the best record of all teams at Euro 2024.

It’s obvious de la Fuente has assembled quite the tram for this Euro. We’ve seen excellent performances from defender Jesus Navas, midfielders Dani Olmo and Rodri, and the young gun of Lamine Yamal, who turns 17 the day before the Euro final! Judging by their play, Spain doesn’t appear to have any faults that would give notice of them losing the final. Mind you this is football and anything can happen. I’ve seen cases where the team with the more superior play before the final would end up losing. Basically Spain needs to play as consistently as they’ve been playing in Germany and not underestimate their opponent if they want to win their record-setting fourth Euro Cup. Besides I’ll bet Spaniards don’t want to hear any singing of “It’s Coming Home” at the end of the game!

ENGLAND: Before Euro 2024 started, the strength of the Three Lions were in question. It was here in his eight-year tenure as head manager of Team England that Gareth Southgate came under his biggest criticism. Even many of the veteran players like Harry Kane and Phil Foden were under question. Most critics would eventually be silenced as England did work its way to becoming finalists for the second Euro in a row. Despite topping Group C upon delivering the group’s only winning game, England has delivered by coming from behind each knockout game. First was the Round of 16 match against Slovakia that first appeared to end as a loss until Bellingham equalized near the end and Kane delivered the winner in added extra time. Then came the quarterfinal against Switzerland that ended as a 1-1 draw and England won on penalties. Then came the semifinal where what appeared to end as a 1-1 draw became a case of Ollie Watkins delivering the game winner in the 90th minute!

Southgate and Team England have done a lot to silence their critics and showcase a new English team. Over the eight years of Southgate, England has delivered a team with the most team unity in decades. Even their penalty kick results are a surprise. Before Southgate, England had only won a single penalty kick round in a major tournament. Since Southgate has taken over, they’ve won three. No doubt they want to win their first ever Euro. One thing Southgate, Kane, Bellingham and Bukayo Saka need to do is play better than they have in previous Euro games. In each of their knockout games, their opponent would score first. Their two winning games were a case of suddenly coming from behind. They can’t afford to do tricks like those in the Euro final. It’s too risky against a team like Spain. If they want to win, they need to be the most in control from the start. Also they can’t take the chance of drawing and going to penalty kicks. They may have won their quarterfinal but we all remember what happened in the last Euro final.

My Final Verdict: So many predictions from others. So many guesstimates. Yet nothing in football is guaranteed. I feel this will be a case where Spain will win 2-1.

And there you have it! That’s my prediction for the final of the 2024 European Championships. Expect it to be one intense evening!

2024 Copa America: My Semifinals Predictions

Just four teams are left in the running for the Copa America.

Some of you may wonder why I didn’t do a Copa America blog for the groups with a game to go or a quarterfinals prediction blog. Firstly, blogs are too tiring. I like the Copa America but my hands can only take so much typing and I can only have so much inspiration. I’m not a professional blogger. Secondly, I was on vacation in my city of birth. So naturally, I will embrace my rest and relaxation while I have it.

Now that my vacation is near ending, it’s time to focus on the semifinals of Copa America 2024. The group play has been something. Argentina was great as expected, but Canada progressed even though they scored just a single goal in group play! Also Canada’s more lauded CONCACAF rivals of the USA and Mexico didn’t qualify for the quarterfinals! Even Panama qualified thanks to their 2-1 win over the USA! Venezuela, who has never won a Copa or even qualified for a World Cup, topped Group B with straight wins! The tight rivalry of Colombia and Brazil was expected to pour over into group play and it did!

Then the semifinals! Interesting that the CONMEBOL have it there’s no added extra time and goes straight to penalty kicks. It’s something because that was the case for three of the four quarterfinals! Only Colombia’s 5-0 win over Panama was a decisive game.

Now we have the semifinals. Like the Euro, they will also be contested on the Tuesday and Wednesday. Only one CONCACAF team still stands. Chances are it will again go to a CONMEBOL team. A CONMEBOL team has always won the Copa and that’s how it should be. In the meantime, here’s my look at the two semifinals:

SEMIFINAL #1: ARGENTINA vs. CANADA

Head-To-Head Stuff:

Aside from Argentina’s 2-0 win over Canada in the very first game of this Copa, their only other time meeting was in 2010 where Argentina again won, but the score was 5-0.

Team-By-Team Analysis

ARGENTINA: When you are the current World Cup Holder, a lot is expected from you. The Albiceleste did not disappoint in the Group Stage. They began the Copa with a 2-0 win over Canada, followed it with a 1-0 win over Chile and capped it off with a 2-0 win against Peru. All three games won, nothing conceded. It’s when they got into their quarterfinal against Ecuador that the challenge began. They conceded for the first time at this Copa and drew 1-1. It was after the penalty shootout that they won.

No doubt they intend to repeat as Copa champions. In the past few years, they built up a full top-notch team instead of relying on just Messi. Actually here at the Copa, the top scorer has been 26 year-old Lautaro Martinez! For their semifinal, I can’t really see them having much of a chance of losing. I think the only way they can is if they underestimate their opponent. It’s highly unlikely they will but I have seen big-name teams underestimate opponents and then lose.

CANADA: It’s easy to underestimate The Canucks. Most of the other teams here at this Copa have had bigger renown and are way more lauded. Canada came with something to prove and they did a good job of proving it. They may have opened with a 2-0 loss to Argentina but they came back with a 1-0 win over Peru and a scoreless draw against Chile. It is possible to qualify for the knockout round by scoring a single goal! That’s football for you!

Their quarterfinal win against Venezuela was a game where Canada showed both its strengths at the right time, but also their weaknesses. It’s obvious Canada intends to send a top team to the World Cup when they co-host two years from now. Their first time ever to a Copa America semifinal is a feat all its own. Nevertheless they will need to improve more if they want to go far. As for their upcoming semi, they should not let their group stage loss get to them. Argentina is a tough team but they’re beatable. It’s up to Canada to deliver well.

My Final Verdict: I thought tournaments organize themselves so that teams that play each other in group play don’t meet again until the final. I know the World Cup does it. Despite the two clashing again so soon, I think Argentina will take it 3-0.

SEMIFINAL #1: URUGUAY vs. COLOMBIA

Head-To-Head Stuff:

The two have dueled each other 45 times before. Uruguay won 20 times, Colombia won 14 times, there were 11 draws.

Team-By-Team Analysis:

URUGUAY: Here in the USA, La Céleste have put on quite a show. At a time when one wonders who the successors for Suarez and Cavani will become, in come new stars like Darwin Nunez, Maximiliano Araujo and Mathias Olivera who have dazzled during the Copa. Uruguay opened with a 3-1 win over Panama, followed it up with a 5-0 win over Bolivia and then delivered a 1-0 win over the hosting Americans.

Despite the stellar play in the Group Stage, they followed it with a scoreless draw against Brazil in the quarterfinals that was won on penalty kicks. Many complained it was lacklustre play from two top teams. A team like Uruguay will have to get itself together. Especially since Colombia had a big win in their quarterfinal.

COLOMBIA: Most people originally thought Group D was Brazil’s for topping, but Los Cafeteros had other plans. They began with a 2-1 win over Paraguay, followed it with a 3-0 win over Costa Rica and followed it with a 1-1 draw to Brazil. Their consistency took them to the top of Group D. They also followed it up in the quarterfinal with a 5-0 win over Panama. They were the only team to actually win their quarterfinal match!

The team have it together and they have what it takes to win. It’s a matter of them delivering at the moment. As they face Uruguay, they know it can go either way. They’ve been brilliant this whole tournament. They will have to continue their brilliance to get into the final.

My Final Verdict: They’ve had fierce rivalries before. The winning team is usually the one with the better World Cup chances. I think this will play to a 2-2 draw and Uruguay will win on penalty kicks.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the semifinals of the Copa America. Interesting this is while the Euro doesn’t have a third-place game, the Copa America does. I’m undecided if when I do my blog predictions for the final, I should predict the third-place match. Only time will tell.

UEFA Euro 2024: Predictions For Knockout Rounds

The image above shows the flags of the sixteen nations still in the running. The whole point of those 36 games of group play is to reduce the field of 24 to the 16 most worthy of advancing. After that, each round is a knockout match to pare down the field to the two to square off for the Euro Cup. The group play was quite interesting. A hat trick wasn’t scored but a lot of brilliant goals. There were four 0-0 games. I hate 0-0 games! There were a lot of controversial referee calls. Also a lot of shockers from teams one wouldn’t consider a favorite but made it through. For all the teams, none of the teams had a case of losing all three games. One group was a case of only a single win and the rest draws to decide. Another group was a case all four teams had a win, a loss and a draw. It must have been tough to decide the finishing order, which they eventually did.

On Saturday the 29th starts the knockout rounds. After all that group play to narrow the 24 to 16, the upcoming Round Of 16 is just a single game for each team to narrow the field of 16 to 8. The layout for the Round of 16 doesn’t make the same clear sense as the Round of 16 in a 32-team World Cup, but this is how UEFA arranges it. I just hope the tournament ends up with the right two in the final. In the meantime, here are my predictions for each match. Matches are in chronological order and my prediction for the winner will be bolded:

ROUND OF 16

Switzerland (Group A 2nd.) vs. Italy (Group B 2nd.): Switzerland finished 2nd in Group A without a loss. It all started with a 3-1 win to Hungary, then 1-1 draws to both Scotland and Germany. Italy opened well against Albania 2-1, lost to Spain 1-0 thanks to an own-goal and drew 1-1 against Croatia in the stoppage time at the end. For this match, I predict Switzerland to win on penalty kicks. The last time Switzerland lost to Italy was 1993.

Germany (Group A 1st.) vs. Denmark (Group C 2nd.): Being the host nation, Germany knew they had to deliver, and deliver well! They did just that opening the Euro with a 5-1 win over Scotland and a 2-0 win over Hungary. Their qualification guaranteed, they could afford to draw 1-1 against Switzerland. Denmark had the good fortune of drawing all three games in their group: 1-1 draws to Slovenia and England and ending with a scoreless draw to Serbia. For this game, I predict Germany to win because they’ve been better at delivering this tournament and making wins happen.

England (Group C 1st.) vs. Slovakia (Group D/E/F 3rd.) Group C was the group where five of the six games were draws. England delivered the only win: 1-0 against Serbia. With their scoreless draw to Slovenia and 1-1 draw to Denmark, that was enough to make them top Group C. Slovakia was in a group that was just as tight. All four Group E teams had a win, a draw and a loss. Slovakia’s win was to Belgium 1-0, their loss to Ukraine 2-1, and their draw to Romania 1-1. For this game I predict England. England has never lost to Slovakia in the six times they played. A single draw at Euro 2016 but never lost.

Spain (Group B 1st.) vs. Georgia (Group D/E/F 3rd.): Spain had it’s win of Group B guaranteed after the second game! They opened 3-1 against Croatia and did 2-1 against Italy. Their 1-0 win over Albania just was a bonus for straight wins. Georgia went from the surprise of qualifying to the surprise of this tournament. They lost their opener to Turkey 3-1, came back to draw against Czechia 1-1 and then win to Portugal 2-0. For this match, I predict Spain. The two have met head-to-head seven times and Spain only lost to Georgia once. Spain won the rest of the times..

France (Group D 2nd.) vs. Belgium (Group E 2nd.): A classic match! France finished second in Group D starting with a 1-0 win over Austria, the only Group F team to beat Austria, a scoreless draw to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw to Poland. Belgium started their Group E play with a surprise 1-0 loss to Slovakia, then came back with a 2-0 win to Romania and ended with a scoreless draw to Ukraine. For this, I think this will go to a draw with France winning on penalty kicks.

Portugal (Group F 1st.) vs. Slovenia (Group A/B/C 3rd.): Portugal not only clinched qualification after their first two games, but they also clinched first place in Group F in the process! A 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 win over Turkey is all it took. They could afford to lose to Georgia 2-0 and still top Group F! Slovenia was straight draws with 1-1 to Denmark, 1-1 to Serbia and ended with scoreless against Denmark. Despite the same goal differentials as Denmark, their extra yellow card caused them to finish third in the group. Portugal look on target but I think the game will go to Slovenia. Why? In the one time they ever met, a friendly just three months ago, Slovenia won 2-0.

Romania (Group E 1st.) vs. The Netherlands (Group A/C/D 3rd.): Romania began Group E with a 3-0 win over Ukraine, then endured a 2-0 loss to Belgium and ended it with a 1-1 draw to Slovakia. The Netherlands also had their own win, loss and draw in Group D. They began with a 2-1 win over Poland, a scoreless draw to France and a surprise 3-2 loss to Austria. The two have met 13 times and Netherlands have won nine times. I predict Netherlands to win again.

Austria (Group D 1st.) vs. Turkey (Group F 2nd.): Nobody expected Austria to go too far at Euro 2024. Even their 1-0 to France thanks to an own-goal didn’t help. Then came their 3-1 win over Poland and their 3-2 win over the Netherlands en route to topping Group D. Maybe Austria is a stronger team than we thought! Turkey began Euro 2024 with a 3-1 win over Georgia, endured a 3-0 loss to Portugal and came back to a 2-1 win over Czechia. The last time Austria and Turkey met was three months ago and Austria won 6-1. I expect Austria to win again.

QUARTERFINALS

Why do I predict quarterfinals before I even know who the quarterfinalists are? Do you know how tiring writing is? Anyways as in past years, I plan to take a short break and not publish my next Euro blog until just before the semifinals. With that in mind, I’ll go as if my predictions for the Round of 16 matches actually came true. So here are my thoughts:

Spain vs. Germany – They frequently meet and the results alternate: 26 previous meetings; 8 Spain wins; 9 Germany wins; 9 draws. I think this will be a tight match leading into a penalty kick round which Germany will win.

Slovenia vs. France – They’ve met three times in the past and France has won each time. Even though their last previous meeting was over 20 years ago, I don’t think much has changed. I expect France to win again.

Netherlands vs. Austria – It’s possible two teams that clashed in the Group stage could meet again this soon. If they do meet again, I anticipate a draw game with Netherlands to win on penalties.

England vs. Switzerland – They’ve met 27 times before but England has won nineteen times. I’m not expecting much to change this time so I think it will be a win for England again.

And there you have it. Those are predictions for the Round of 16 matches and my ‘estimates’ for the quarterfinals. All we have to do is wait for the games to play to see who really wins. In the meantime, you’ll get my next blog where I predict the semifinals.

2024 Copa America: Group A Focus

Some of you may be wondering why would I do a focus on the groups of Euro 2024 but not on the upcoming Copa America? Actually I will do a focus on the upcoming Copa America in the United States. Looking back, I find it weird that I only did one set of blogs for a Copa America all the way back in 2015, but none since. About time I fixed that.

Ever since I first focused on the Copa America, which would become my only focus until now, there seemed to be a change every tournament. When I first did it in 2015, it was a twelve-team quadrennial tournament. The first major change came in 2016 when the Copa America decided to have a tournament to celebrate its centennial. And in the United States: a nation that’s not part of the CONMEBOL! In addition, a tournament of 16 teams!

For 2019, it looked like it would get back to normal returning to its quadrennial occurrence, hosted by Brazil and back to being a twelve-team tournament. Then the COVID pandemic happened. A Copa America returned in 2021, held in Brazil. This time, it was only the ten CONMEBOL teams competing in two groups of five.

Now it looks like the Copa America is to be contested in leap years, just like the Euro. After this year, the next Copa will be in 2028. Hard to believe the Euro final and the Copa America final are both on the same day! For the tournament of the Copa America, it will be a sixteen-team tournament with all ten CONMEBOL nations and six guest nations all from the CONCACAF. Fourteen stadiums across the United States will have games contested. It’s possibly because it can prepare itself for the World Cup in two years.

In Group A, we have the defending Copa champions, two more CONMEBOL teams and a CONCACAF team. So without further ado, here’s my look at the teams of Group A. Numbers in brackets are the latest FIFA rankings:

-Argentina (1): At long last, Messi has his Copa America and his World Cup. Over the last ten years, it became apparent that Messi can be a one-man team for Argentina. It needs to have other top players to be the best team in the world, and they’ve done it before in the past. The first breakthrough came when they won the 2021 Copa America against Brazil 1-0. That would pave the way for the Albiceleste’s win in Qatar. They’re still strong and they show little sign of slowing down.

Lionel Scaloni continues to be the manager of the team he’s managed since the 2018 World Cup ended. The squad for the Copa has not been announced, but Messi will definitely be there. Also anticipated to be named to the team is defender Nicolas Olamendi, midfielder Rodrigo de Paul, forward Angel di Maria and goalkeeper Dibu Martinez. Since their World Cup wins, they’ve won all but one game. Their only loss came from Uruguay back in November 2023. Argentina could have what it takes to do it again as long as their success doesn’t spoil them.

FUN FACT: Argentina’s win of the World Cup must have rubbed over to the other American teams. Seven of the teams at this Copa have an Argentinean coach!

-Peru (32): La Bicolor or Los Incas are an on-again off-again team. The current team is a far cry from their Golden Generation in the 1970’s and delivered a legend with Teofilo Cubillas. Nevertheless, they’ve shown a recent surge in prowess with a 4th place at the last Copa, runners-up at the Copa in 2019 and qualified for the 2018 World Cup.

Peru has been managed by Uruguayan Jorge Fossati for less than a year. The squad consists of top players like defender Luis Advincula, midfielder Christian Cueva, forward Pablo Guerrera and goalkeeper Pedro Gallese. In the past year and a half, Peru’s wins have all been outside the CONMEBOL: Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and South Korea. They’ve endured draws to Venezuela, Morocco and Paraguay and losses to six teams including Brazil, Germany and Argentina. This Copa America is another chance for Peru to prove itself and their team’s strength.

-Chile (42): It’s hard to describe how good La Roja are at any given time. When they’re on, they’re on. When they’re off, they’re off. They’ve been in nine World Cups and their best finish is third, but they always have the bad luck of meeting Brazil in the World Cup knockout rounds who would eventually end their run. Also they hit it big in the mid-2010’s when they won their first-ever Copa in 2015, repeated in 2016, but have finished out of the Top 3 since and last qualified for a World Cup in 2014.

Since the beginning of this year, Chile has been coached by Argentinean Ricardo Gareca. Top players include defender Mauricio Isla, forwards Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas, and goalkeeper Claudio Bravo. In the past year and a half, they’ve had wins against Cuba, Albania and Peru, a win and a draw against Paraguay, draws against Colombia and Bolivia, and losses to France, Ecuador, Venezuela and Uruguay. The Copa America is the arena for Chile to show how good they are and possibly chase another win.

-Canada (49): Les Rouges or the Canucks are one of the six CONCACAF teams here at the Copa America. Canada has struggled for a long time to be seen at a world level. In 2022, it qualified for its second-ever World Cup. The fun ended at the Cup as it lost all three of its matches and it finished second-last. Since then, Canada has been focused on getting serious as they will co-host the 2026 World Cup with the US and Mexico and want a team they can be proud of. Even here at the Copa, they will play the opening game against Argentina. You can bet they want to look good here too!

Since the beginning this year, the Canadian team has been coached by American Jesse Marsch. Canada’s squad for the Copa has not been named yet but it’s strongly believed the team will include defenders Alphonso Davies and Richie Laryea, midfielder Jonathan Osorio and forward Cyle Larin. Since Qatar 2022, Canada has achieved wins against Cuba and Panama, has had draws against France, a win and a loss to Jamaica, a draw and a loss to the United States, and losses to Japan and the Netherlands. Canada will get a good sense of where it’s at here at the Copa and just could surprise the Americas at all they can do.

My Predictions: While the 24-team Euro allows for the top two and third-placers based on a wild card system, the sixteen-team Copa America is strictly the top two. I think the two will be Argentina and Chile.

And there you have it. My introduction to Copa America 2024 and my look at Group A. Just when I thought my writing would take a break after my Euro 2024 group blogs ended, I was wrong!

World Cup 2022: Group Stage With One Game To Go

Many of you may ask why do the final games of the World Cup group play for each group happen simultaneously? It’s a controversy that goes back to the first round of group play at the 1982 World Cup. For a long time, I thought it was the 1978 Cup but it’s 1982.

The first round of group play at Espana 1982 was just like at this World Cup; four in a group and the top two advance. With 24 teams in 1982, they were divided in six groups of four. Group 2 had West Germany, Algeria, Chile and Austria. In the opening match West Germany lost to Algeria 2-1 while Austria beat Chile 1-0. For the second matches, West Germany won big over Chile 4-1 and Austria beat Algeria 2-0. The third matches were held a day apart. Algeria played Chile and won 3-2.

With a day to go, West Germany and Austria knew Algeria’s final results: two wins, a loss, five goal scored, five conceded. Austria had two win, three goals scored, none conceded. West Germany had a win and a loss, five goals scored, three conceded. For West Germany and Austria to qualify to the next round, West Germany would have to win 1-0 or 2-0 to advance along with Austria. In the match the next day in El Molinon Stadium in Gijon, Spain, West Germany did beat Austria 1-0 and both progressed to the next round. Three teams with two wins and a loss, but West Germany’s and Austria’s better goal differentials helped them advance.

It was right there in the stadium that thousands of people suspected something. Especially since the lone goal from Horst Hrubesch in the tenth minute was pretty lacklustre and Friedrich Koncilia appeared to put a weak effort into stopping. The mostly Spanish crowd was infuriated, West German fans even were angered, and FIFA investigated it to see if any match fixing. In the end, they could not find any evidence to prove that the match was fixed between the two. Nevertheless the match, one of many shockers and scandals of Espana 1982, would be remembered as the “Disgrace of Gijon.” In addition, FIFA instituted a new rule that each World Cup group’s final matches of group play all be held simultaneously. Simultaneous play of final group matches even happens at the Euro, Copa America, CONCACAF Gold Cup and World Cup qualifiers.

Now onto Qatar 2022 and the tenth time the final matches of group play will be played simultaneously. With one game left to play, three teams have already qualified for the knockout stage, two teams are already out of all chances, and twenty-seven teams will need Game 3 to decide who’s among the other thirteen to advance. In this blog, I’ll break down each group’s action and give the details of which team needs what to qualify for the knockout round. Teams that have already qualified are in bold and links to my original blogs are in the headings.

Group A:

It started with a win for Ecuador over hosts Qatar. Then followed with a win for Netherlands over Senegal. Senegal won against hosts Qatar, then Netherlands and Ecuador had a 1-1 draw. As of now, none of the teams have guaranteed qualification. The Netherlands and Ecuador can make qualification happen if they just draw in both their games. Senegal will face Ecuador in their third game. Winner definitely qualifies. Ecuador can afford to draw but this is a must-win game for the Senegalese to qualify. The only way the Netherlands can’t qualify is if they lose to Qatar and the Ecuador/Senegal game ends in a draw, and I bet that won’t happen.

As for Qatar, it’s over. They are now the second host nation to not advance past the opening round of a World Cup. Netherlands and Ecuador have a win and a draw each which means even if Qatar win against the Netherlands, which I doubt would happen, it will be too much too late.

Group B:

Sometimes it happens in a group with a World Cup group with a single game to go, all four still have chances to qualify. That’s how it worked out with the play. England opened strong with a 6-2 win over Iran. The US and the Welsh drew 1-1 thanks to goals from American star Tim Weah and Welsh sensation Gareth Bale. In Wales vs. Iran, goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey got the Cup’s first instant red card in the 86th minute. That may be what allowed Iran to score two goals in stoppage time and give them their biggest World Cup victory ever! The England-US game was expected to be a tough rivalry, but it ended in a scoreless draw. That’s how it all makes game three to be a free-for-all.

England has the easiest chance to qualify. Even if they lose to Wales, the loss will need to be 3-0 if they’re to fail to advance. Iran could qualify with a draw, but they shouldn’t take chances as it may be possible Wales wins and qualifies based on goal differentials. Don’t forget Iran’s loss to England was by four goals. Both Iran and Wales have goal differentials of -2. The US need nothing less than a win to qualify. Wales not only needs a win over England to qualify, but for a draw to happen in the Iran-US game. If a winner happens in that game, Wales victory over England will have to be a three-goal differential like 3-0 or 4-1. It’s that tight!

Group C:

Of all groups here in Qatar, this group has the most shockers. Nobody expected Argentina to lose to Saudi Arabia 2-1. Saudi Arabia was so elated by the win, a national holiday was declared! The Mexico/Poland match resulted in a scoreless draw: one of five scoreless draws in Qatar 2022. Game 2 became a case for teams to want to play like they meant it. Poland made up for its lackluster opener by defeating Saudi Arabia 2-0. Argentina, disappointed with their loss in what should be called the “Saudi Surprise,” knew they had to defeat Mexico to regain their reputation. And they did 2-0.

All four teams have a chance of qualifying. Poland in the top spot has it easiest because they could just simply draw against Argentina and it would be enough to qualify, but they know the Albiceleste are hungry to redeem themselves, so they don’t want to take any chances. Speaking of Messi and the boys, they could draw against Poland, but could face elimination if Saudi Arabia defeats Mexico, so you can bet the Albiceleste will want to make this a win. As for the Saudis, they too can’t take chances against Mexico. Don’t forget they had a win at the last World Cup, but also had two losses and failed to advance. A draw would be too risky with goal differentials coming into play, plus who knows how the Argentina/Poland game will go? So a win against Mexico will be needed. Mexico, in last place, still have a chance if they win against the Saudis and Poland beats Argentina. If Argentina wins or draws against Poland, Mexico will need a win of either 3-0 or 4-1 to make it in. Slim, but still possible.

Group D:

It’s widely considered that there is a curse of the World Cup champion. Four of the previous five World Cups, including the last three, have seen the defending champion end their World Cup run in the group stage. Here in Qatar, France ended all concern of the curse by winning their first two games and becoming the first team to guarantee qualification! They opened with a 4-1 win over Australia and followed it up with a 2-1 win over Denmark, and that secured it. They ended the curse! Funny thing is they appear to have started it in 2002 when they not only were ousted, but failed to score a single goal! Even if France loses against Tunisia, they will still qualify.

All of the other three teams still have a chance. Second in the group is Australia. After their 1-4 loss to France, they knew they needed to win their next game against Tunisia to be in contention, and they did it: 1-0. For the Australia/Denmark match, it’s a case of whoever wins qualifies. While Denmark needs nothing short of a win to qualify, Australia could qualify simply by drawing, but they could be ousted if Tunisia defeats France and goal differentials come into play. A win against France and the Australia/Denmark game being a draw is Tunisia’s only chance of qualifying for the group stage. Also if Denmark wins over Australia, Tunisia’s win over France will have to be 2-0 or 3-1 to have that chance. Although I don’t think France will have them win, anything is possible.

Group E:

Group E is another case where all four teams still have chances to qualify for the knockout round. Group E is another group that had surprises. First was Japan’s win over Germany 2-1. Then came the huge win of Spain over Costa Rica: 7-0. Then Costa Rica won over Japan 1-0 and Spain drew against Germany 1-1. Although it’s not guaranteed, Spain has the best chances of qualifying even if they lose. It could be a case they lose to Japan and Germany wins their game, but their big win over Costa Rica puts them in an excellent position to qualify.

Japan looks like the team that can best qualify if they draw, but their chances are slim because of Spain’s huge win. A win over Germany will solidify. Same with Costa Rica. They will need to win over Germany if they want to advance because of the huge loss they had to Spain. Their win against Japan was a boost, but goal differentials will have an impact in qualifying. Germany is the nation where a win is absolutely critical. The Mannschaft are the only team in this group without a win. They will not only need to win against Costa Rica, but hope that the Japan/Spain game results in a draw or Spain winning because if Japan wins, Japan and Spain will have the advantage with goal differentials. That’s the World Cup for you.

Group F:

At first it appeared that Group B would be the “Group Of Death” of the Cup. Seems like almost every group has become like a Group Of Death and Group F is no exception. The first matches started with Morocco and Croatia in a scoreless draw and Belgium defeating Canada 1-0. How about that? The first games end and there’s only a single goal! Then in the second matches, Morocco surprised Belgium 2-0– Morocco’s first World Cup win since 1998 — and Croatia dominated over Canada 4-1.

Three teams still have a chance at qualifying. Although both Morocco and Croatia have a win and a draw, Croatia have the best chances of qualifying because of their goal differentials. Either team can qualify by simply drawing, but it may not be something they’d want to do because of the opponents they’ll face. Belgium knows it will need a win if they want to stay alive. That loss to Morocco really set them back and they can’t afford to take chances since Morocco will be taking on Canada.

Canada is the second team in this World Cup to be eliminated after the second game. They lost 1-0 against Belgium but impressed the world with their strong play and strong defense. In their match against Croatia, they opened strongly with Alphonso Davies delivering what is so far the fastest opening goal of the World Cup. Over time, the Croatians poured it on and exposed the weaknesses in Canada and they lost 4-1. Even before the World Cup, I knew Canada’s chances of qualifying were slim. Nevertheless, I wasn’t too worried about qualification because Canada will be co-hosting the next World Cup. I figured this would be a learning experience for the team as the team consists mostly of young players while teams like Belgium and Croatia consist of well-seasoned players. I wish Canada all the best for 2026.

Group G:

Before Monday, November 28th, France was the only team assured qualification with one game to go. At the end of Monday, two more were added, and both are lusophone nations! You can imagine that the nation football fans would most have their eyes on would be Brazil. Brazil did not disappoint. They opened their World Cup with a 2-0 win over Serbia, thanks to two second-half goals from 25 year-old Richarlison. Their second match was against Switzerland and it was a single goal from Casemiro in the 83rd minute that gave Brazil their victory 1-0. Even if they lose to Cameroon on Friday, they’re guaranteed in there.

The three other teams in Group G also have chances to be the other team to advance. Switzerland has the best chances as they had a 1-0 win over Cameron and their loss to Brazil leaves them with even goal differentials. In fact if Switzerland wins over Serbia and Brazil loses to Cameroon, they can take the top spot of Group G if their win is 2-0 or 3-1! A draw against Serbia is too risky because if it so happens that Cameroon beats Brazil, Cameroon could advance because of better goal differentials thanks to their 3-3 draw to Serbia. Actually both Cameroon and Serbia will need wins to have any chance of advancing. Serbia has the slimmest of chances to qualify with a loss, a draw, three goals sores and five conceded. If they win against Switzerland and Cameroon draws, they can be the team that advances. Even in football, the slimmest of chances are still possible.

Group H:

Four short hours after Brazil became the second team to qualify to the knockout stage, Portugal became the third! It all started in their first match against Ghana. After a scoreless first-half, Portugal won 3-2 and Cristiano Ronaldo made history as the first player to score a goal in five World Cups! A win against Uruguay thanks to two second-half goals from Bruno Fernandes booked them qualification to the Round of 16! Even if they lose to South Korea on Friday, they’re still going!

Any of the other three Group H teams can become the second team to qualify, but their play in the third game will finalize who’s the one. Both matches on Friday are of intrigue. The South Korea/Portugal match because both have Portuguese head coaches, with South Korea’s playing in the 2002 World Cup. The Ghana/Uruguay game because…well, if you saw the 2010 World Cup quarterfinal, you’ll know why Ghana has an axe to grind with Luis Suarez!

Of the three still waiting, Ghana is the one with the best chances. To think before Qatar 2022 began, Ghana was seen as the team with the least odds of winning the Cup and was the team in Qatar with the lowest rank on FIFA’s list: 61st. They may have lost in their opener to Portugal, but their 3-2 loss sent the message not to underestimate the Black Stars. Then against South Korea, they clinched a 3-2 win! A win against Uruguay will solidify qualification. Ghana could qualify if they draw, but they better hope South Korea doesn’t beat Portugal. I’ll bet they don’t want to chance it. As for South Korea and Uruguay, both are in a case where they will need nothing less than a win to qualify. Not only would South Korea need Ghana to draw to qualify, but the Taegeuk Warriors have to win 2-0 or 3-1. Uruguay have it toughest of all as they haven’t even scored a single goal yet. They’ll have to win 2-0 or 3-1 over Ghana and just hope Portugal either beats South Korea or draws against them in order to advance.

And that’s my breakdown of the qualifying chances of the teams of the World Cup right now. These next four days will finalize everything. No wonder I call the final games of the group stage a test of nerves.

WORK CITED:

WIKIPEDIA: Disgrace of Gijón. Wikipedia.com. 2022. Wikimedia Foundation Inc.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gijon>

2019 FIFA WWC: My Prediction for the FINAL, And Third-Place Playoff Too

ettie

I have to say this Women’s World Cup has been excellent. It won’t break the attendance record set by Canada back in 2015 but it has already surpassed the 1 million mark. The support for the teams has been outstanding with the various football federations shouting their support and some of the biggest male football stars supporting their teammates. Play has also been excellent as there’s American Alex Morgan and England’s Ellen White chasing the golden boot with six goals each. Also there’s only been four expulsions: only one of which was an instant red. So this is a Women’s World Cup France should be very proud of.

THIRD-PLACE Playoff:

Few people are willing to make a prediction for the Third-Place playoff, or the match I call the ‘bronze medal match.’ However I’m one who is willing. Here’s how I look at it:

Head-To-Head Stats:

England and Sweden have faced off against each other 24 times before in the past. Sweden has won thirteen times, England won three times and they drew eight times. Their last match against each other was on November 11, 2018 which Sweden won 2-0.

Team-By-Team Analysis:

England fixedEngland: Women’s football has really grown a lot since England finished third at the last Women’s World Cup. The team they fielded looked like one that could pose the best challenge to the United States. Unfortunately it was not to be as the US beat them 2-1. To add insult to the injury, the US’s Alex Morgan appeared to do a tea-sipping gesture after scoring the winning goal. Many have taken this to be an insult to the English.

It’s difficult to say if England will win. They will have a lot of their top stars like Ellen white and Lucy Bronze ready to play for the game, but Millie Bright won’t be after her double-yellow red card. Phil Neville knows that he will have to get his team ready for the match on Saturday. England have already gotten this far. Perhaps they can give their team one last feat.

Sweden FixedSweden: Before the semifinal, I’m sure most of you predicted Sweden to beat the Netherlands. I mean Sweden had the clout. They’ve been to every Women’s World Cup since it began in 1991. They’ve finished in the Top 3 three times before. They’ve even beat the Netherlands way more often than they lost to them. However things did not go according to plan. Before the match, Fridolina Rolfö received a second yellow card during the match against Germany which meant she will miss the next match. The Netherlands turned out to be a more formidable opponent than they expected. Regulation play resulted in no score. Then there was the goal from Jackie Groenen in the 99th minute. Then there was the shocking injury to Kosovare Asllani where she was carried off on a stretcher.

Sweden came to the tournament with a lot of energy. They won big and were able to rebound after a loss to the United States. Their trip to the WWC semifinal was not easy as they overcame teams like Canada and Germany that had bigger expectations. However they were brought to a halt by the Netherlands in the semifinals. They could win the third-place match or they could lose it. It depends if their players are all in top condition and they attack more than they did on Wednesday.

My Prediction: England have the star strikers, while Sweden has a strong team unit. Sweden will have a one-woman advantage in this game after Bright’s expulsion. Asllani may not be recovered from her injury, but Rolfö can be brought back in play. I will predict Sweden to win 2-0.

THE FINAL

FIFA WWC

This is it. The final for the Women’s World Cup. One team has been their four of the previous seven times and won three times including the last contest in Canada. The other team is only competing in its second Women’s World Cup and won its first-ever knockout match right here in France. So this is quite the quantum leap for the team. So here’s the low-down:

Head-To-Head Stats:

The USA and the Netherlands have met only seven times before. The only time the Netherlands won before was their first meeting all the way back in 1991. The last time the two squared off against each other was in 2016.

Team-By-Team Analysis:

United_States_SoccerUnited States: The United States is the team that is most expected to win this Women’s World Cup. They’re the defending champs from 2015. They’re ranked #1 in the World. They have some of the biggest stars in women’s football who are seen as trailblazers. However they have also earned naysayers too. It all started when they won 13-0 against Thailand and celebrated after each goal. Many thought it was disrespectful. Then Megan Rapinoe made headlines for taking a knee during the play of the Star-Spangled Banner. She followed that by saying she won’t be going to the White House to a reporter. Most recently, Alex Morgan made England fans mad when she celebrated her game-winning goal by doing a tea-sipping gesture. Despite the negative press, they’ve delivered each time. They’ve won all their games, scoring 24 goals and only conceding three.

The only barrier I can see the US would have en route to winning the Cup is them being overconfident. They’ve played very well: better than any other nation. However they showed in their Round Of 16 game against Spain they could give it all away. They won 2-1, but on two penalty kicks from Rapinoe. They did come back in the QuarterFinals against France winning 2-1. However they should not go to the Final thinking they’ll roll over the Netherlands. The Netherlands has surprised all their major opponents here in France. For the US to win, they have to be on the ball and take the Netherlands seriously.

Netherlands FootballNetherlands: Before Women’s Euro 2017, people did not expect much of the Netherlands. Why should they after they finished in the Round of 16 in Canada 2015 and failed to qualify for the Olympics? However they surprised everybody by winning all their games and would win the final by beating Denmark 4-2. This made it the first Women’s Euro since 1993 that Germany didn’t win! Here at this Women’s World Cup, expectations were good but not that big. Canada was expected to top Group E, but the Netherlands did it by winning all their games, including beating Canada 2-1. Then in the Round of 16, they were pitted against Japan whom they lost to in Canada 2015. This time the Netherlands won. They were pitted against Italy in the quarterfinals and won 2-0. Then came Sweden who was more expected to win the game. It started with nil-nil after regulation, but a goal from Jackie Groenen in the 99th changed it all. Now it’s the Netherlands in the final.

What can I say? The Netherlands have silenced their critics. Especially those who dismissed their win at the Women’s Euro as host-country luck. These past six matches show that the Netherlands have earned their place in the WWC Final. However the United States team has more seasoned players and have consistently shown to be a stronger team unit with more know-how of the game than the Dutch players. Now don’t get me wrong. I think the Netherlands can win against the USA, but they will have to play like they’ve never played before, both as individuals and as a team unit, and take advantage of any American weak-spots once they find them.

My Prediction:

I hate to side with the majority so instantaneously, but I think the United States will win this 4-1. I hate to peeve off Oranje fans, I could be wrong, but the Netherlands simply making it to the final already shows how much women’s football has improved there.

And there you go. That’s my prediction for the Final of the Women’s World Cup, as well as my prediction for the third-place match. To think it will all be decided by Sunday. What a month it’s been!

 

 

2019 FIFA WWC: My Predictions For The SemiFinals

Womens Cup

It does seem odd that I post my predictions for the semifinals on Canada Day, especially since Canada is out of the tournament. In fact the two teams that Canada lost to in France, Netherlands and Sweden, are squaring off in the second semi-final! Sometimes I think that sends a message of how good Canada was as a team; that the teams they lost to got this far. We shouldn’t forget that both teams beat other top teams in the knockout rounds too; Netherlands beat 2015 finalist Japan in the Round of 16 and Sweden beat 2016 Olympic champs Germany in the quarterfinal. Other top teams like Australia, Brazil, China and France are out too. Pele always says: “Football is a box of surprises.”

WWC SemisAnyways enough of who are out of the tournament and let’s focus on the four that are still standing. The US is the only one of the four that have won the Women’s World Cup in the past, two have been to the semis at least once before, and one team is there for the first time ever. Three have won all of their games in this WWC while one had a loss in group play to a team that’s also in the semifinals. Both semifinal matches will take place at the Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Lyon: the same venue that will hold the final for the Cup. So here’s a look at the four teams in both semifinals and my predictions:

SEMIFINAL #1: England vs. U.S.A.

Head-To-Head Stats:

The only time the US and England met head-to-head at the WWC was back in 2007 which the US won 3-0. No doubt after that, England decided to get better. In the past five years, the two meet five times before: four of those times at the new She Believes Tournament. Of the five times, England won once while the US won three times. Their last meeting was at this year’s She Believes Tournament. England won the tournament, but drew against the US 2-2. The US was the only team England didn’t defeat.

Team-By-Team Analysis:

EnglandEngland: This makes it only the second time England has reached the semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. The only other time was back in 2015. England’s appearance in the semis allows Great Britain to qualify a women’s team to the Tokyo Olympics. England won all their games in the Group Stage with Scotland being the only team to score a goal against them. England especially wanted to get revenge on Japan whom they lost to back in 2015. England continued looking like a tough team to beat with 3-0 wins against Cameroon in the Round of 16 and Norway in the quarterfinals. England have been earning their strong share of supporters like Wayne Rooney, Prince William, various BBC personalities and even the public with chants of “It’s coming home!” Many English who never cared about women’s football in the past are now paying attention!

England have been looking like a strong opponent all tournament. However they do have their imperfections. They’ve lost to major opponents early in tournaments. Also they’ve had losses to top-ranked teams in the past 12 months. England will have to be on-target if they’re to win here in France.

United_States_Soccer

United States: In all eight Women’s World Cups, the United States has been present. In all eight Women’s World Cups have they made it as far as the semifinals. In the Group Stage, they appeared invincible in their 13-0 win against Thailand and continued looking impressive with a 3-0 win against Chile and a 2-0 win against Sweden. Then in the knockout rounds, the US appeared to lost its edge after a 2-1 win over Spain in the Round of 16: both goals being penalty kicks delivered by Megan Rapinoe. Also it was Rapinoe who made the most controversy when she took a knee during the playing of the Star Spangled Banner and even said in an interview about a White House-dinner if the team wins “I’m not going to the ******* White House.” It was an intense three days between the whole fiasco and their game against France. The team had since stood with Rapinoe and what she said. What happened against France was the team responded with a 2-1 win: both goals scored by Rapinoe.

The US came as the team with the most expectations to win and has been one team that has best delivered so far. However this World Cup is all about endurance and who is the strongest at the end. The US went all out in the Round of 16 but appeared to give way when they played against Spain. They can’t afford to do that in their semifinal against England on Tuesday. Not after how well England has been playing. Don’t forget they went easy at the 2016 Rio Olympics and found themselves out without a medal.

My Prediction: Last time England played the US, it was this year in February and the result was a 2-2 draw. I anticipate the game will be a 1-1 draw with the United States winning on penalties.

SEMIFINALS #2: Netherlands vs. Sweden

Head-To-Head Stats:

This is the first time the Netherlands and Sweden will meet on the Women’s World Cup stage. They met once before at the Women’s Euro in 2017 where host-nation Netherlands beat Sweden 2-0 in the quarterfinals en route to winning the championship. In total, Sweden has beat the Netherlands more often in the 21 previous times that they met: ten times in total. Six times the Netherlands won while five games ended as draws.

Team-By-Team Analysis:

Netherlands Football

Netherlands: Isn’t that something how a team that has only competed in their second Women’s World Cup is now in their first-ever semi finals? Actually the Netherlands’ woen’s team was not taken too seriously until they qualified for their first Women’s Euro in 2009. There they finished third and showed that the women’s team has a lot of promise ahead. Back when they made their WWC debut in Canada 2015, they finished in the Round of 16 losing 1-2 to eventual finalists Japan. However the Leeuwinnen have really taken off in success. Back in 2017 when they hosted the Women’s Euro, they won! They would also continue their winning way by topping the 2018 Algarve Cup (based on stats). The Netherlands would be the team that toughed it out in the FIFA playoff rounds for qualifying for this Women’s World Cup.

The Netherlands have overcome a lot to be in this semi. They were successful in winning all their games in the Group Stage, got revenge on Japan 2-1 in the Round of 15 and beat Italy 2-0. They have overcome a lot to prove their Euro win was no fluke. However they have had a history of losing out to key opponents. They’ve lost to teams like Spain, Norway and Poland in the last eighteen months. The Netherlands have done very well together, but they will have to be on if they are going to beat Sweden in the semifinal.

SwedenSweden: While Netherlands are rookies at being in the WWC semifinals, Sweden have been there before. Three times to be exact with the last time being a third-place finish in 2011. Like the US, they’ve also competed in every Women’s World Cup. Here in France, they’ve been showing a lot of great team play and a lot of great play together. That has helped them in every game and even surpass major favorites like Canada and Germany. The one thing about Sweden is that needs to continue its team strength or else it will fall apart. And it has fallen apart in major tournaments in the past, like WWC 2015 and Euro 2017. This game could be Sweden’s triumph or Sweden’s choke.

Sweden are a team that know how to rebound when you least expect it. At the 2016 Olympics, they received their biggest defeat in the team’s history by losing to Brazil 5-1 in group play only to draw against them in the semifinals and defeat them in penalty kicks. Sweden would go on to the gold-medal match, but lose to Germany. The funny thing is it’s at this very Women’s World Cup where they got their revenge on Germany: in the quarterfinals with a 2-1 win. Here’s another thing to chew on: Sweden lost in the quarterfinals of the 2017 Women’s Euro to the Netherlands. Will they get revenge here? And if the US win their semi, will Sweden get revenge for group play by beating them in the final?

My Prediction: Sweden may have won against the Netherlands more often, but Oranje have won their last two meetings. Netherlands may ave won all their games, but Sweden have performed better as a team. I predict Sweden to win 2-1 in added extra time.

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 2019 Women’s World Cup semifinals. Hard to believe the final is just six days away! May the best team win!

 

 

World Cup 2018: Group Stage With One Game To Go

Russia 2018

Already in these past eleven days, all 32 teams played their first two games. Already some team’s fates are determined as six teams know they’ve qualified for the knockout round and eight teams know they’re going home after they play their last game. The fates of the remaining eighteen are still unclear and they will have to rely on their play in the last game in order to determine if they’re among the remaining ten to advance or among the other eight that will head home earlier than they hoped. With each group’s games both taking place simultaneously, you can bet each team will need to play like they mean it.

Here is a group-by-group breakdown of those who made it (with countries who are guaranteed to advance in bold), those who will be leaving soon and those who still have a chance. Hyperlinks with each group are to my original review:

Group A: This is as basic as game statistics go about right now. Two teams won both their games which of course means the other two teams lost. The two that won their two games already know they’re advancing. That’s as basic as it gets. This is the only group that has it that way. The two teams that won both their games are Russia and Uruguay. One of two groups that already has decided both of their qualifiers.

Monday’s game of Russia vs. Uruguay will be a case of the final standings. They know they’re qualifying. The game will be about who qualifies as first and second. Russia could finish first by simply drawing. Their goal differential is big enough. Uruguay will have to win if they want to finish first as both their wins were 1-0.

Since Egypt and Saudi Arabia lost both their games, it’s pretty clear in their match against each other on Monday, it will be a game for pride.

Group B: Group B is a group that’s hard to explain. The only definite thing is it’s over for Morocco. As for qualifiers, no definite ones with three teams still having a chance. Portugal and Spain both have the best chances after their 3-3 draw against each other and 1-0 victories in their following games. Both would not only have to win in their games (although they could still qualify even if they both draw), but if both win, goal differential would have to decide 1st and 2nd.

However don’t count out Iran. They may rank 3rd right now with a win and a loss– their win being their first since 1998– but beating Portugal will mean they would qualify. If Spain loses their game against Morocco in the process, Iran could just come out on top! Goad differential would have to decide between Spain and Portugal for the second berth.

What can I say? Game 3 will have to decide it all.

Group C: Right now one team, France, is guaranteed to qualify based on their two wins. Also one team, Peru, is guaranteed to go packing for home after Tuesday’s game, whether they win against Australia or not. Even if Denmark beats France on Tuesday, France still has enough game points to qualify, even if they would finish second and Denmark would win Group C.

The way things are right now, France and Denmark could draw and both teams would advance on game points, even if Australia beats Peru. Australia would still have a chance if they beat Peru and Denmark loses to France. However even as little as a draw against Peru would eliminate Australia’s chances from qualifying. Another case of Game 3 to decide the second qualifier, as well as the final standings of all teams.

Group D: That’s all it took. It just took Croatia’s 2-0 win over Nigeria and 3-0 win over Argentina to have them qualify for the Round of 16 for the first time since their 3rd-place finish in 1998.

Croatia is in a healthy position to finish first in Group D as Iceland would have beat Croatia to have a chance at qualifying. And Croatia is as capable of losing to Iceland as they are to beating them. Both teams won a game against each other in World Cup qualifying. Actually the other three teams all have a chance to qualify, no matter how slim. Even Argentina, despite their big loss to Croatia. Argentina’s big loss does put them at the bottom with the harshest of chances to qualify. They would not only have to beat Nigeria, but Croatia will have to beat or draw against Iceland. Messi’s fourth and possibly final chance at winning a World Cup depends on all that. Nigeria could still qualify with a draw against Argentina, but a win will guarantee them qualifying should Iceland actually defeat Croatia. That’s Game 3 for you. Sometimes chances are not worth taking.

Group E: Group E is a lot like Group B where two teams have a win and a draw, one team has a win and a loss, and one team has two losses which guarantee elimination after Wednesday’s game. The team that’s definitely eliminated is Costa Rica. They may have been the Cinderella story of 2014, but the clock struck midnight here in Russia for them. Even if they beat Switzerland, it’s over.

Any of the other three teams–Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia– can qualify, depending on the results of their games on Wednesday. All three also have chances to get eliminated too. Brazil could draw against Serbia and it would guarantee qualification for them. However Serbia would have to win over Brazil to guarantee qualification on their side. They could still qualify if they draw against Brazil and Switzerland loses to Costa Rica 2-0 or 3-1, but why take a chance? The only way Switzerland could still qualify after losing to Costa Rica is if Brazil loses to Serbia 2-0 or 3-1 as Brazil has an edge with their goal differential. A draw against Costa Rica would guarantee qualification for Switzerland, whether either Brazil or Serbia wins.

Brazil could still qualify if they simply draw against Serbia, but the only way for Brazil to qualify if they lose to Serbia is if Coast Rica beats Switzerland, and as long as their loss to Serbia isn’t that huge of a margin. Whatever the situation, Game 3 will be a case where all three eligible teams will have to play it like they mean it.

Group F: This is the one group where there are no definite qualifiers, but no teams definitely eliminated either. All four teams still have a chance to qualify and it will completely rely on the outcome of the final game on Wednesday. Game 3 could have a case where there are two teams with two wins and a loss with the other two teams having a win and two losses. It could even be a case of one team having three straight wins and the other three teams having a win and two losses and goal differentials deciding the second qualifier. Of course draws could change all that, but right now none of the teams are eliminated and all still have a chance.

Starting with Mexico, they have the best chances of qualifying after their 1-0 win against Germany and 2-1 win over South Korea. However they could be eliminated if they lose to Sweden 2-0 or 3-1 and Germany wins 2-0 or 3-1 to South Korea in the process. That would be the case of three teams with two wins and a loss but one doesn’t qualify. And it has happened in past World Cups.

Germany and Sweden both have a win and a loss as well as two goals for and two against. However Germany leads Sweden for the second-place spot because of the head-to-head result. I have to say that goal by Tony Kroos in the 95th minute was definitely something Germany needed to stay alive and have healthy chances of qualifying to the knockout stage. Otherwise they would’ve risked being the fourth of five defending Cup champions this 21st century that failed to advance. Nevertheless they still risk missing out not just if they lose to South Korea, but even if they draw and Sweden ends up winning over Mexico. It’s still possible Germany will fail to advance past the opening round for the first time since 1938. Like Germany, Sweden would have to win over Mexico to have the healthiest of chances to qualify. Qualifying via a draw could only happen if Germany draws too and Sweden’s draw is bigger: such as Sweden-Mexico 2-2 while Germany-South Korea 1-1. Whatever. It’s too complicated to tell! But they know they need to play like they mean it.

Finally there’s South Korea. It’s easy to think they have the best chances of getting eliminated with losing both games, but they still have a chance, despite it being a slim one. They not only have to win over Germany, but Mexico has to beat Sweden in order for the Koreans to qualify. A slim chance is still a chance possible. And the Koreans could do it since they will have a one-man advantage on Wednesday. The fates of all will be decided that Wednesday. Sure, it was awfully long for me to describe, but the group is that tight right now.

Group G: Group G is like Group A where the two qualifiers are already decided thanks to both England and Belgium scoring two wins and both Panama and Tunisia losing to both teams in the process. This is especially happy for England as the first win was England’s first win of a World Cup match since 2010. Definitely a big upper after a dreadful 2014 showing. The big surprise is that both England and Belgium share the same goal differential with eight for and two against. Their game on Thursday will be just to decide who finishes first and who finishes second. A draw, god forbid, would require the team of the first goal to take first place, or some other FIFA law if the draw happens to be nil-nil. Glad to see no nil-nil draws yet this World Cup.

It may be all over for Panama and Tunisia but their game on Thursday will be for pride. Panama will try to win their first game ever while Tunisia will try to win their first game since their debut in 1978.

Group H: Another group with no definite qualifiers and three teams that still have a chance at qualifying. When I made my predictions, I looked back and wondered if there would be any African teams or Asian teams that would have a chance of making it past the group stage. My predictions didn’t make it look so. However Japan and Senegal are the two teams that have done the best play with a win and a draw each. Japan is especially noteworthy as they delivered the first victory by an Asian team since 2010. The That 2-2 draw where Japan played Senegal was tight. Their games on Thursday will have to decide their final fates. Colombia endured a 2-1 loss to Japan in their first game, but really picked themselves up tonight after their 3-0 win over Poland. That win helps keep Colombia in contention for qualifying. It all depends on their game against Senegal. They would have to win as Senegal has the advantage if they draw. And who knows what will happen in the game of Japan vs. Poland. Both Senegal and Japan have the luxury of qualifying even if they both draw in their final matches.

The only team that has their World Cup fate already decided is Poland. They lost 2-1 to Senegal and 3-0 to Colombia and that means it’s over for them. They could win against Japan for their national pride. If Japan does lose, the only way Japan could qualify is if Senegal beats Colombia. Game 3 is almost always make or break.

And there you have it. This is how qualifying stands for the knockout stage of the World Cup right now. These next four days will seal the fates of all teams not just for who qualifies, but how they finish in their group. Don’t forget it’s not just about getting a berth by finishing in the Top 2. It’s also about the two qualifiers’ group finish as it will decide which game they play in and determine who their opponent will be. Too complicated to explain it all. Still exciting to watch the action unfold.

2018 World Cup Group Stage: Draw Time

World Cup Draw

It’s right there on FIFA’s website on how much it took to determine the 32 qualifiers for next year’s World Cup: thirty months, six confederations, 209 teams, 868 matches played, and 2454 goals scored. All 31 available berths up for grabs were decided by November 15th. December 1st was the day to decide the four teams for all eight groups for the World Cup.

Qualifying for the World Cup is already enough of a battle. The respective continent’s confederations contested their matches and conducted their own qualifying format for deciding their qualifiers for the World Cup. There were even two countries that qualified via a ‘wildcard’ berth where they’d have to play a team from another continent twice. The thirty-two qualifying countries were all decided more than two weeks ago. The qualifying rounds made a lot of news for those that qualified, but those that didn’t got a lot of news of their own too. The second-round qualifying matches for the CAF saw two of Africa’s best-ever teams–Nigeria and Cameroon– pitted against each other. Only one can qualify and it ended up being Nigeria. Another surprise was the Ivory Coast being surprised by Morocco and Ghana being overtaken by Egypt. Asia didn’t have many surprises, but Qatar finished last in the Second Round group. Not good since they will be hosting in 2022. The CONMEBOL almost saw the non-qualification of Argentina, but they recovered to win their last game and qualify. Instead the most shocking non-qualifier was 2015 and 2016 Copa America winner Chile which was third the day before the final game for all teams.

The biggest shockers in qualifying came from the CONCACAF and Europe. On the last day of CONCACAF qualifying, all the USA needed to do to qualify was beat Trinidad and Tobago in their last game. It was something they could do as Trinidad would finish last of the Final 6. Instead the USA lost 2-1. That was enough for them to kiss their qualification chances goodbye as Panama beat Costa Rica 2-1 to qualify and Honduras beat Mexico 3-2 to earn a berth in the interconfederation playoff against Australia. Europe had some of the biggest shockers as The Netherlands didn’t even qualify for a UEFA playoff round and Italy thwarted their playoff against Sweden losing 1-0 the first game and a scoreless draw the next. Russia 2018 will be the first World Cup since 1958 in which Italy didn’t qualify and only the third World Cup ever with Italy absent!

Now enough of this World Cup’s also-rans. On with those that qualified. Twenty of the 32 teams for Russia 2018 played in Brazil 2014. Brazil makes it 21 for 21. All former World Cup winners except for Italy will be present. The team with the longest absence making a return to the World Cup stage in 2018 is Peru whose last World Cup appearance was back in 1982. There are only two countries that will make their World Cup debut in Russia: Iceland and Panama. Iceland is especially noteworthy as it has become the first nation with a population of less than 1 million to qualify for a World Cup! Actually there aren’t even half a million people living in the nation of Iceland so that makes it even more remarkable.

Now onto the draw. The draw was held Friday at 18:00 Moscow time at the Kremlin. Legends from all eight countries that have won the World Cup in the past were present: Laurent Blanc, Diego Maradona, Gordon Banks, Cafu, Miroslav Klose, Fabio Cannavaro, Diego Forlan and Carles Puyol. Gary Lineker was host of the event and Russian legend Nikita Simonyan was also part of the event, Vladimir Putin was defintely in attendance, an d the Igor Moiseyev Ballet provided the performance before the draw.

Now onto the actual drawing. In the past, FIFA has organized the pots to give appropriate correlation with continents and availability. FIFA wants the eight groups of four to be a case of no more than two European teams and only one team of the other confederations. There are fourteen European teams (UEFA) including host Russia, five South American teams (CONMEBOL), three teams from North and Central America and the Caribbean (CONCACAF), five African teams (CAF) and five teams from the AFC (Asia and Australia).

FIFA wants to create better parity among the groups for this World Cup. FIFA doesn’t want a case of two or three top-ranked teams in a group as only two can advance past the Group Stage. We all remember the dreaded Group D of 2014 which consisted of three top-ranked teams. This time around FIFA decided to break the draw into four pots of eight. The pots are all based on the teams’ FIFA World Ranking as of October 2017, regardless of continent. The only exception being Russia as the host nation is always automatically in Group A. Here’s how the pots break down with their confederation listed and their ranking in brackets:

POT 1:

  • Russia – UEFA (65)
  • Germany – UEFA (1)
  • Brazil – CONMEBOL (2)
  • Portugal – UEFA (3)
  • Argentina – CONMEBOL (4)
  • Belgium – UEFA (5)
  • Poland – UEFA (6)
  • France – UEFA (7)

POT 2:

  • Spain – UEFA (8)
  • Peru – CONMEBOL (10)
  • Switzerland – UEFA (11)
  • England – UEFA (12)
  • Colombia – CONMEBOL (13)
  • Mexico – CONCACAF (16)
  • Uruguay – CONMEBOL (17)
  • Croatia – UEFA (18)

POT 3:

  • Denmark – UEFA (19)
  • Iceland – UEFA (21)
  • Costa Rica – CONCACAF (22)
  • Sweden – UEFA (25)
  • Tunisia – CAF (28)
  • Egypt – CAF (30)
  • Senegal – CAF (32)
  • Iran – AFC (34)

POT 4:

  • Serbia – UEFA (38)
  • Nigeria – CAF (41)
  • Australia – AFC (43)
  • Japan – AFC (44)
  • Morocco – CAF (48)
  • Panama – CONCACAF (49)
  • South Korea – AFC (62)
  • Saudi Arabia – AFC (63)

As you can tell by the pot arrangements, they’re trying to make the contest as balanced as possible. In addition, FIFA knows the top seeded teams are Team 1 in each group–host nation being Team A1– but FIFA still wants a drawn ball in all cases to make it official, even drawing the order of the last group team drawn. That explains all those red balls at the beginning of the draw; to make defaults official. Confederation rules still apply as far as maximums per group. Pot 1 had six UEFA teams and Pot 2 had four. It could have been a case where four groups could have reached their maximum two for UEFA teams by the time Pot 2 was all drawn out. Instead it was just two groups with UEFA berths completed. Drawing teams and placing them in the right groups was not as hard and tedious as I had anticipated. In the end, all eight groups had their teams drawn and allotted with only minor complications which were sorted out with ease:

GROUP A:

  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Egypt
  • Uruguay

GROUP B:

  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Morocco
  • Iran

GROUP C:

  • France
  • Australia
  • Peru
  • Denmark

GROUP D:

  • Argentina
  • Iceland
  • Croatia
  • Nigeria

GROUP E:

  • Brazil
  • Switzerland
  • Costa Rica
  • Serbia

GROUP F:

  • Germany
  • Mexico
  • Sweden
  • South Korea

GROUP G:

  • Belgium
  • Panama
  • Tunisia
  • England

GROUP H:

  • Poland
  • Senegal
  • Colombia
  • Japan

So those are the groups for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. It makes for some interesting analyses. The draw usually tries to make for the host nation to have an easy time qualifying to the knockout phase. Russia has a good group with only Uruguay looking to be a real threat to them. Group B is most interesting not because of the challenge of the teams, but of the geography: Spain, Portugal and Morocco! The draw was aimed so that there could be better parity among ranked teams, but there are possibilities of a ‘Group Of Death’ or two. First bet is Group D; Croatia and Iceland are underdogs that can cause a surprise, and Nigeria meet Argentina for the fifth time out of six World Cups. The second potential Group Of Death could be Group F with Germany and Mexico plus possible upsets coming from either Sweden or South Korea.

And there you go. That’s the Final Draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. The teams now have six months to prepare themselves and be among the top two to advance. Lots of excitement guaranteed.

Rio 2016: Seven Canadians To Watch

Canada Olympic

I admit I’ve come to accept it after the Sochi Olympics. Since the late-90’s Canada has become a winter sports superpower but field a very good Summer Olympics team. In past Olympic Games, both Canada’s summer and winter teams were on the same levels. Very often the summer team would outperform the winter team. That has changes since the late-90’s as you can tell by the medal totals with each Games.

However it’s not fair at all to say our Summer Olympic team is lousy. Here in Canada, we have a lot to deliver. The 2015 Pan Am Games and the recent World Championships in various sports have shown we have a lot of athletes in contention. Sure we only won a single gold out of our 18 medals back in London but we have a solid team this year. Sports Illustrated predicts Canadians to win a total of seventeen medals including four gold.

Anyways you saw my focus on foreign contenders in Rio yesterday. Without further ado, here are the seven Canadians of focus:

Brianne Theisen-Eaton – Athletics: The last time a Canadian woman won a gold medal in track and field was in 1928 and that was the very first Olympics track and field events for women were contested! Canada was one of the best countries in women’s track and field in 1928 winning two of the five events and two additional medals. Yeah, what has happened since? Well the drought could very well be over. When Brianne Theisen graduated from high school, she went to the University of Oregon and it was the best decision. She represented Canada in London and finished 11th. She would later marry American decathlete Ashton Eaton and she’s been on a roll since finishing second at the last two World Championships. She also won the Goetzis HypoMeet this year with a points total that’s the highest of 2016 and has propelled herself as the favorite. She will face stiff rivalry from defending Olympic Champion and reigning World Champion Jessica Ennis-Hill and Worlds bronze medalist Laura Ikauniece-Admidiņa of Latvia. 2016 could just be Brianne’s year. Also look to see if Brianne and Ashton become the first married couple since the Zatopeks in 1952 to both win athletics golds in the same games.

Shawnacy Barber – Athletics: Canada is not known for its pole vaulters. Our last Olympic entry was back in 1992. Our only two medals in the men’s event came all the way back in 1908 and 1912. That can all change thanks to New Mexico-born Shawn Barber. He didn’t qualify for London at the tender age of 18 but his talent was obvious that year as he already broke the Canadian record. He has improved in both his vaulting heights and his competitive consistency over the years and even won the World Championship last year. He even vaulted six metres for the first time ever during an indoor meet this year. He will face challenges from defending Olympic champion Renaud Lavillenie of France, American newcomer Sam Kendricks and even home-country threat Thiago da Silva. Whatever the situation, Barber is sure to deliver.

Brooke Henderson – Golf: Here in Rio there won’t be any new sports on the program but there are two sports that were part of the Olympic program in the past that were cancelled out. The two returning sports are Rugby, albeit in Sevens format, and Golf. Golf was contested at the 1900 and 1904 Olympics. The last Olympic gold in golf was won by a Canadian: George Lyon. Professionalism may have a lot to do with that. Since there’s now no such thing as ‘amateur’ anymore, it seems right that golf returns especially since it’s international enough. Canada has a strong shot at winning through 18 year-old Brooke Henderson. Already displaying a combination of talent, drive and youthfulness that has best been seen in the past through Se-Ri Pak and Nancy Lopez, Henderson has already won three LPGA events. Her last two– the KPMG women’s PGA Championship and the Cambia Portland Classic–came this June and propelled her to 2nd-place World ranking. She’s a heavy favorite to win in Rio but she will face challenges from World #1 Lydia Ko of New Zealand, latest American great Lexi Thompson and last year’s British Open winner Ariya Jutanugarn of Thailand. Win or lose, Brooke has a bright future ahead of her.

Mark de Jonge – Canoeing: Until 2008, there were the 500m and 1000m events in flatwater canoeing for men. In 2012, the program replaced the 500m events with 200m sprints. That has worked for the advantage of Canadian kayaker Mark de Jonge. The Calgary-born Dalhousie grad won bronze in London the first Olympics it was contested. Since then, de Jonge has moved up in the ranks from silver at the 2013 Worlds to gold at the 2014 and 2015 Worlds. De Jonge will face challenges from France’s Maxime Beaumont and Sweden’s Peter Menning who finished second and third to him respectively last year. It could just well be de Jonge’s moment here in Rio.

Rosannagh MacLennan – Trampolining: Ever since trampolining has been introduced to the Olympic program in 2000, the Canadian team has left each Olympics with at least one medal. The women’s event has always had a Canadian medalist with Karen Cockburn winning 2000 bronze, 2004 silver and 2008 silver. In London, Rosie MacLennan became Canada’s first ever Olympic champion in trampolining. Rosie also had the bizarre distinction as being Canada’s only Olympic champion at those Games. Rosie has since won the 2013 World Championship and finished second the following year. She found herself out of the medals in 2015. She plans to return to her winning form in Rio but she will face the rivalry of 2015 champ Li Dan of China and two Belarussians: 2015 bronze medalist Tatiana Piatrenia and Hanna Harchonak. 2016 will be the arena for her to prove herself on top again.

Brittany MacLean – Swimming: Canada is known for its medal-winning swimmers. Sports Illustrated predicts Canada to win no medals. However one that could prove SI wrong is distance freestyler Brittany MacLean. The Etobicoke native who swims for the University of Georgia has a reputation in the distance freestyles with a 7th place finish in the 400 in London. However she was too injured in the 2015 season and had to miss out on the Worlds. This year, MacLean has the 6th-fastest time in the world in the 400 free and the 4th-fastest in the 800 free. Sure the distance freestyles are where Katie Ledecky is all the talk but Brittany MacLean just could win Canada’s first Olympic medal for a female swimmer since 1996. That feat could also be achieved by backstroker Kylie Masse or butterfliers Penny Oleksiak or Noemie Thomas. Actually Canada has its strongest women’s swim team in a long time. While the men’s team could only qualify ten swimmers. Looks like it’s the girls’ turn to shine.

AND ONE TEAM:

Canada’s Women’s Soccer Team: I’ll admit I didn’t review them when I did my pre-Olympic preview for London. And good reason why not. Back at the 2011 WWC Canada lost all three of their Group Stage games. However the turnabout the team made under the new coach John Herdman was evident as the team left the Olympics with the bronze medal. Their performance won the hearts of so many Canadians, I referred to them as ‘Our Girls.’ Canada has continued to show consistency with a quarterfinal finish at the 2015 WWC. Since then, the team have won most of their games losing only to Brazil, Denmark, USA and France. Canada won this year’s Algarve Cup and 19 year-old defender Kadeisha Buchanan was named the best player of the tournament. They’re not expected to win a medal in Rio but the team could just surprise the world again like they did four years ago.

And there you have it. My review of Canadian athletes to look out for in Rio. Notice that I reviewed the four Canadians Sports Illustrated predicts to win gold? Whatever the situation, I’m sure they’ll do our country proud.