Showbiz

My Predictions For The 2025 Academy Award Nominations

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Most years, I publish my predictions for the Oscar nominations the day before. This year, I’m able to publish two days before. I’ve been better this year than in previous years in being up to date on who received what accolades. The Golden Globes, Critics Choice, the various film critics circles and the respective Guild awards have been giving their nominees and some have even decided winners. Very good timing especially since the nominations are coming later in the year than expected.

Again this year, I will decide ten predictions for Best Picture nominees, five predictions for the other categories and possible upsetters that I sense could be surprise nominees. Interesting that there is a new category added this year, bringing the total back to twenty-four. The category is Best Casting. For that category, it makes you wonder who the nominees will be ? The top cast? Or the casting director?

So here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE

  • Bugonia
  • Frankenstein
  • Hamnet
  • Jay Kelly
  • Marty Supreme
  • One Battle After Another
  • The Secret Agent
  • Sentimental Value
  • Sinners
  • Train Dreams

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
  • Ryan Coogler – Sinners
  • Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
  • Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
  • Chloe Zhao – Hamnet

BEST ACTOR

  • Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
  • Leonardo di Caprio – One Battle After Another
  • Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
  • Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
  • Jesse Plemons – Bugonia

BEST ACTRESS

  • Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
  • Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
  • Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
  • Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
  • Emma Stone – Bugonia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
  • Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
  • Delroy Lindo – Sinners
  • Paul Mescal – Hamnet
  • Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
  • Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
  • Amy Madigan – Weapons
  • Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
  • Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
  • Ryan Coogler – Sinners
  • Kleber Mendonca Filho – The Secret Agent
  • Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
  • Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
  • Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams
  • Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
  • Will Tracy – Bugonia
  • Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Arco
  • The Bad Guys 2
  • Kpop Demon Hunters
  • Little Amelie Or The Character Of Rain
  • Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

  • Hamnet
  • Marty Supreme
  • One Battle After Another
  • Sinners
  • Wicked: For Good

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Sinners
  • Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another
  • Darius Khondji – Marty Supreme
  • Claudio Miranda – F1: The Movie
  • Adolpho Veloso – Train Dreams

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Miyako Bellizzi – Marty Supreme
  • Ruth E. Carter – Sinners
  • Kate Hawley – Frankenstein
  • Paul Tazewell – Wicked: For Good
  • Malgosia Turganska – Hamnet

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • 2000 Metres To Andriivka
  • Cover-Up
  • Mr. Nobody Against Putin
  • My Undesirable Friends: Part 1
  • The Perfect Neighbor

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
  • Affonso Goncalves and Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
  • Andy Jurgenson – One Battle After Another
  • Stephen Mirrione – F1: The Movie
  • Michael P. Shawver – Sinners

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

  • Belen – Argentina
  • It Was Just An Accident – France
  • The Secret Agent – Brazil
  • Sentimental Value – Norway
  • Sirat – Spain

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

  • Frankenstein
  • Marty Supreme
  • Sinners
  • The Smashing Machine
  • Wicked: For Good

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Alexandre Desplat – Frankenstein
  • Ludwig Goransson – Sinners
  • Jonny Greenwood – One Battle After Another
  • Kangding Ray – Sirat
  • Max Richter – Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Dream As One” – Avatar: Fire and Ash
  • “The Girl In The Bubble” – Wicked: For Good
  • “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters
  • “I Lied To You” – Sinners
  • “No Place Like Home” – Wicked: For Good

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Frankenstein
  • Hamnet
  • Marty Supreme
  • Sinners
  • Wicked: For Good

BEST SOUND

  • Avatar: Fire and Ash
  • F1: The Movie
  • Frankenstein
  • One Battle After Another
  • Sinners

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Avatar: Fire and Ash
  • F1: The Movie
  • Frankenstein
  • Jurassic World Rebirth
  • The Lost Bus

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

  • Autokar
  • Butterfly (Papillon)
  • Eiru
  • The Girl Who Cried Pearls
  • Snow Bear

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • All The Empty Rooms
  • Armed Only with a Camera
  • Classroom 4
  • The Devil Is Busy
  • We Were The Scenery

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

  • Ado
  • Beyond Silence
  • The Boy with White Skin
  • Extremist
  • A Friend of Dorothy

Once again, I’ll be giving my predictions for the most likely upsetters. Sometimes these award shows and their nominees will hint as to who will upset the favorites and some may come out of nowhere. So here’s my take:

BEST PICTURE

  • F1: The Movie
  • It Was Just An Accident
  • Wicked: For Good

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident
  • Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

BEST ACTOR

  • Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
  • Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

BEST ACTRESS

  • Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
  • Tessa Thompson – Hedda

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
  • Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Odessa A’Zion – Marty Supreme
  • Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Zach Cregger – Weapons
  • Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Park Chan-Wook, Lee Kyoung-Mi, Don McKellar and Lee Ja-Hye – No Other Choice
  • James Vanderbilt and Jack El-Hai – Nuremberg

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Demon Slayer: The Movie
  • Elio

BEST CASTING

  • Frankenstein
  • Sentimental Value

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Dan Lautsen – Frankenstein
  • Lukasz Zal – Hamnet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Jennifer Johnson – Bugonia
  • Lindsay Hugh – Hedda

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Apocalypse In The Tropics
  • Seeds

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Kirk Baxter – A House Of Dynamite
  • Evan Schiff – Frankenstein

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

  • Left-Handed Girl – Taiwan
  • No Other Choice – South Korea

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

  • One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Daniel Lopatin – Marty Supreme
  • Hans Zimmer – F1: The Movie

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Drive” – F1: The Movie
  • “Train Dreams” – Train Dreams

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Avatar: Fire and Ash
  • The Fantastic Four: First Steps

BEST SOUND

  • Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
  • Wicked: For Good

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Sinners
  • Superman

And there you go. Those are my predictions for the nominees for the 98th Academy Awards and the possible upsetters to my main predictions. It should make for an interesting morning on Thursday the 22nd. Even with Oscar nominations, nothing is sacred.

My Predictions For The 2025 Golden Globes

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Has it been five years since I last did a prediction blog of the Golden Globes? I don’t know what it was. Lack of drive? Controversy it endured at the time? Too soon in the year to publish? Whatever the situation, I got the drive back in making a prediction blog this year!

The 83rd Golden Globes are happening this Sunday at the Beverly Hilton. Nikki Glaser did such a good job of hosting last year, they brought her back this year. Understandably so as she really brought back the enjoyment after Jo Koy made a big mess of things the year before. Fifteen categories are up for grabs for film and twelve are up for television. The recent addition of the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award two years ago really makes for something different in the film awards categories. Especially since it’s not an Oscar category.

So without further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s Golden Globe Awards:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Sinners
Most Likely Upsetter: Hamnet

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: One Battle After Another
Most Likely Upsetter: Marty Supreme

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Most Likely Upsetter: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Most Likely Upsetter: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Most Likely Upsetter: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
Most Likely Upsetter: Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Most Likely Upsetter: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Most Likely Upsetter: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Director
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Most Likely Upsetter: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Most Likely Upsetter: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
Winner: The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Most Likely Upsetter: It was Just An Accident (France)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Most Likely Upsetter: Zootopia 2

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Golden”, KPop Demon Hunters
Most Likely Upsetter: “I Lied To You”, Sinners

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Ludwig Goransson, Sinners
Most Likely Upsetter: Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

Cinematic And Box Office Achievement
Winner: Sinners
Most Likely Upsetter: Wicked: For Good

Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. So my predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: Adolescence

Best TV Series, Drama: The Pitt

Best TV Series, Comedy: The Studio

Best Performance In Stand-Up Comedy In Television: Ricky Gervais, Ricky Gervais: Mortality

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Seth Rogen, The Studio

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Britt Lower, Severance

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Jean Smart, Hacks

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Stephen Graham, Adolescence

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Rashida Jones, Black Mirror

Best Supporting Actor on Television: Owen Cooper, Adolescence

Best Supporting Actress on Television: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

And there you have it. Those are my predictions for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards. Sunday night should make for an entertaining start to the film awards season.

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Awards

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd, as it was originally set. With the wildfires that happened in the Los Angeles area at the beginning of January, it was decided to scale the show back a bit. The information about how scaled back the show will be is not complete. The two things you will notice are the earlier start time of 16:00 PST and also only a half-hour Red Carpet show on ABC. One thing that has been recently made public is that there will not be performances of the nominated songs. Conan O’Brien has been hired to host the ceremonies but he said the focus of the show is to ‘be humble’ and not focus on all the glitz and glamor of Hollywood at a time like this. Additionally, the firefighters and those that made the efforts to fight the fires will be honored.

The show must go on. And with that come my predictions. This year, I saw enough films to make up 99 of this year’s nominations. Again, better than most actual Academy members. So without further ado, here are my predictions to win and even some Should Win picks:

BEST PICTURE

Once again, I’d like to thank Olly Gibbs for doing yet another great poster for the Best Picture nominees. This year’s Best Picture nominees make up a total of 70 of the 120 nominations this year. I won’t get too much into the nitty gritty of the nominations. A lot of films that you didn’t think would be contenders for Best Picture have ended up nominees and one or two movies that were heavy favorites to win Best Picture have seen their buzz fade over time. A very interesting Oscar year indeed! Without further ado, here is my look at this year’s Best Picture contenders.

Anora– If you told me a movie about a stripper would be one of the best films of 2024, I would have never believed you. The thing is it’s more about the story. It’s a story of a stripper who craves love deep down inside and thinks she has it, until she learns who she really married. It’s a mix of comedy and drama. It’s a mix of bizarre situations, ironies and heartbreak. It’s also of a surprise ending that will leave one asking questions. It’s because of this that I label this film my Will Win pick.

The Brutalist– One thing about many of this year’s nominees is about many of the shocking moments in the story. This is a story of chasing the American Dream that is more harrowing and way uglier than your typical story. It’s also an excellently crafted film as the first film goes into Laszlo’s pursuit of success before his wife Erzsebet arrives, the 30-minute intermission, and then the second half that feels like a different movie. In terms of a film put together with all factors — acting, directing, writing and additional factors like set design, music and cinematography — I feel this is the best of them all and I give this my Should Win pick as well as the pick for the Most Likely Upsetter.

A Complete Unknown– A lot of us like musicographies. The Oscars have loved musicographies too from Coal Miner’s Daughter to Ray to Walk The Line to Bohemian Rhapsody. To make the musicography, the film not only has to have a dead-on portrayal of the musician but also must be full of their music. This film succeeds in doing that. With Timothee Chalamet, we don’t get a cartoonish imitation of Bob Dylan. We get one that’s three dimensional and shows us aspects of Bob Dylan we never knew. It’s worthy of a Best Picture win but can’t compete with the more favored contenders.

Conclave– I know that when I did my review, I mentioned I was unhappy with the way cardinals were depicted and how the election of a pope was depicted. And this is coming as rumors that the current pope is dying after each update on his health. Despite that, I feel it is a story that is well pieced together and told well. The acting has a lot of standout performances. Although there are two other films that I feel have better chances for Best Picture, don’t rule out the possibility of Conclave pulling an upset.

Dune: Part Two– Of all the science-fiction films of 2024, it’s Dune: Part Two that’s the best of the year. This is the film that best delivers in drama, adventure and special effects. And to think it came out in March instead of the summer! Despite that, I am not optimistic of its chances of winning Best Picture. All of the other nominations for this film are in the technical categories and it will hurt its chances of winning Best Picture.

Emilia Perez– This film started out with the biggest Oscar buzz. Thirteen nominations. Leader of the year. Since then, this film has had the biggest backlash of all films. First came from critics and audiences saying this is not all that great of a film. Second is the trans community complaining of how it gives a negative depiction of them. Third is people from Mexico who are unhappy how Mexico is depicted as a paradise for crime. Fourth came from social media posts from star Karla Sofia Gascon from as far back as five years ago which are racist and Islamophobic. I have never seen a film loaded with this much Oscar buzz take that big of a nosedive. As for my opinion, it’s not terrible. It’s just different, experimental and it’s something most people won’t understand.

I’m Still Here– When the Oscar nominations were announced, it looked like Emilia Perez was the foreign film of the year. Over time, I’m Still Here became the foreign film of the year, and rightly so. It has an important story of a Brazilian woman who should be regarded as an international symbol of strength. The thing about the film is that it’s not just a biographical film of Eunice Paivas. It also shows her as a mother who was still determined to keep her family together despite the difficulties. It also makes for a deserving Best Picture winner, but there are meatier films with better chances this year.

Nickel Boys– For those who are familiar with the stories about the Dozier School For Boys, this is a story that needs to be told. The film succeeds in making a story about a school that was abusive to boys watchable and even being a story of hope. The unfortunate thing for this film is the screenplay is the only other nomination for this film. A lack of nominations in other categories will hurt its chances of winning.

The Substance– I’m sure most of us want to see a horror film get nominated for Best Picture. It’s very rare that one does. Some people say The Silence Of The Lambs is the first and only to win Best Picture but I consider Silence to be more of a drama or a thriller than horror. The Substance is definitely a horror movie and very different from your common horror movie, but it does deliver in scares, blood and gore. As good of a horror movie it is, I think the Academy will be too stuck up to make a horror film a winner.

Wicked– Definitely the musical of the year. It entertained big crowds and also delivered some of the best film moments of the year. A lot of great acting from Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey. It succeeds in being entertaining and delivering in the mesmerizing magic. Despite that, I feel that other films have better chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Also many times, musicals may get Best Picture nominations and acting nominations, but they often get denied directing and writing nominations, and this film is no exception.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Most of the main categories for the Oscars are harder to predict than usual. Same in the Best Director category. At the beginning of the year, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist looked to be the best bet but recently Sean Baker from Anora has won some major directing awards. The two movies are complete polar opposites so it’s hard to compare the two. I think Brady Corbet will hang on and win.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Usually this category is one of the most decisive. Often there is one performance you know will take it. This year, it’s been a big question if it will be Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown or Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Both are set in the past. One is of a popular figure while another is of a fictional person. For those that saw The Brutalist, Laszlo Toth never existed but he is based upon two great Hungarian pioneer architects: Marcel Breuer and Emo Goldfinger. It’s Brody’s intense portrayal of a troubled man chasing the American Dream and getting greatly hurt in the process that’s why I feel he should win.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Another category that’s harder to decide this year. So far this year, the biggest talk has been Demi Moore in The Substance. She’s won a lot of awards. Lately Mikey Madison in her performance in Anora has been catching a lot of attention. The crazy thing is that both performances are in films that would not normally be considered Oscar bait! One is the story of a New York stripper who falls for an immature son of a billionaire. The other is a horror movie about an actress willing to use an insane substance to create a new self to get her life back. I think Mikey Madison will pull an upset here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Now this year is unique that both of the most favored performances in the supporting acting categories have enough screen time to be considered a lead performance. If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you will notice Kieran Culkin was in just about every scene with lead Jesse Eisenberg. Nevertheless it is a performance worthy of winning as his character Benji Kaplan stole the movie. And for an actor that’s been acting since he was eight; back in 1990’s Home Alone as Fuller McAllister. Finally it’s his time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Another supporting performance that has as much screen time as the lead, Zoe is deserving of the win. Playing the role of the lawyer caught in the middle of the drama is what does it for her. And this is far from an ordinary story so for her to maintain the level of sanity in this story and to also have her own singing and dancing numbers in the film adds to how complex this role is. For a long time, Zoe has been a major force in Hollywood and now’s her chance to win the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan – Conclave

I was impressed with Sing Sing when I saw it in August. Despite that, I feel that the script for Conclave will take it. It looks more like the type of Oscar-friendly script.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

This year, I feel like some of the best scripts are those that are off the common path. Both Anora and A Real Pain are great stories. I was most impressed with Jesse Eisenberg taking his chance at writing and directing. Nevertheless Sean Baker’s script for Anora was excellent because of how it made the story unpredictable. So it’s understandable why it’s the favorite to win.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:

Usually it’s the technical categories that are the ones that are the hardest to predict the winners. This time, the major categories appear to be the ones that could deliver the biggest surprises and shockers. Nevertheless they’re still worth predicting. Once again, there will be only a few categories where you’ll see a Should Win prediction from me. Only if I feel confident enough.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: The Wild Robot

Last year, I saw all five nominees. This year. I only had the drive to see two. For those that have read my blogs, you may remember how I became all excited after I saw Flow. It is quite something of a film. My excitement grew with each awards win it received, and I was very happy when it won the Golden Globe. Recently The Wild Robot has been gaining ground and winning award shows. In the battle of robot vs. cat, I think the robot will take it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lol Crawley – The Brutalist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Paul Tazewell – Wicked

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No Other Land

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Nick Emerson – Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Substance

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Should Win: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Judy Becker – The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions in this category.

JUST ONE MORE – MOST LIKELY OSCAR UPSETTERS

This year looks like there will be a lot of shockers and possibly most likely the closest decisions in years. Especially among the major categories. Nevertheless for this section, I will only limit myself to seven potential shockers for Sunday night:

  • Sean Baker winning Best Director for Anora.
  • Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor for A Complete Unknown.
  • Demi Moore winning Best Actress for The Substance.
  • RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes winning Best Adapted Screenplay for Nickel Boys.
  • Jarin Blaschke winning Best Cinematography for Nosferatu.
  • Sean Baker winning Best Film Editing for Anora.
  • Emilia Perez winning Best International Feature Film.

And there you have it! Those are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Some may think an awards like these aren’t to be held at a time like this, but film unites us and reminds us to keep being strong.

My Predictions For The 2024 Academy Award Nominations

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

It’s finally coming tomorrow, but it would be wrong to be impatient for them. The Oscar nominations were originally planned to be announced on Friday, January 17th, but the wildfires in the various areas of Los Angeles changed everything. At first, the AMPAS Academy changed the date to Sunday January 19th and then to Thursday January 23rd. That’s the thing. It is a troubling time but the show must go on.

Once again for making predictions, I will make ten predictions for Best Pictures nominees, five predictions for the other categories and a set of possible upsetters.

So here I go with my predictions:

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part 2
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
The Substance
Wicked

BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
Sean Baker – Anora
Edward Berger – Conclave
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part 2

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

BEST ACTRESS
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Issabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralee Fargeat – The Substance
Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine As Light

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Winnie Holzman & Dana Fox – Wicked
James Mangold & Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
Peter Straughan – Conclave

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoirs Of A Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – Nosferatu
Alice Brooks – Wicked
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Stephane Fontaine – Conclave
Greg Fraser – Dune: Part 2

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Lisy Christl – Conclave
Linda Muir – Nosferatu
Massimo Cantini Parrini – Maria
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
Jacqueline West – Dune Part 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
Daughters
No Other Land
Soundtrack For A Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane

BEST FILM EDITING
Sean Baker – Anora
Nick Emerson – Conclave
Myron Kerstein – Wicked
Joe Walker – Dune Part 2
Juliette Welfling – Emilia Perez

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Perez – France
Flow – Latvia
The Girl With The Needle – Denmark
I’m Still Here – Brazil
The Seed Of The Sacred Fig – Germany

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Volker Bertelamm – Conclave
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Clement Ducol & Camille – Emilia Perez
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – Challengers
Hans Zimmer – Blitz

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mai” – Emilia Perez
“Kiss The Sky” – The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” – Emilia Perez
“Never Too Late” – Elton John: Never Too Late
“Winter Coat” – Blitz

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune Part 2
Gladiator II
Wicked

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune Part 2
Gladiator II
Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes
Twisters
Wicked

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
A Bear Named Wojtek
Beautiful Men
A Crab In The Pool
Me
Yuck!

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter To The World
Once Upon A Time In Ukraine
The Only Girl In The Orchestra

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Compatriot
Dovecote
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange From Jaffa

As I do year after year, I also add in my predictions for possible upsetters to my predictions in most of the categories. There’s often one in each category and even a real shocker form out of nowhere. So here are my picks for the potential upsetters:

BEST PICTURE
Challengers
Nickel Boys
September 5

BEST DIRECTOR
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Craig – Queer
Hugh Grant – The Heretic

BEST ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie – Maria
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alex Garland – Civil War
Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ramemm Ross & Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys
TDenis Villeneuve & Jon Spaihts – Dune: Part 2

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Moana 2
That Christmas

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Paul Guilhaume – Emilia Perez
Phedon Papamichael – A Complete Unknown

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Arianne Phillips – A Complete Unknown
Janty Yates & Jade Crossman – Gladiator II

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Porcelain War
Will & Harper

BEST FILM EDITING
Marco Costa – Challengers
David Jansco – The Brutalist

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Universal Language – Canada
Vermiglio – Italy

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Dune: Part 2

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Compress – Repress” – Challengers
“Harper and Will Go West” – Harper and Will

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part 2

BEST SOUND
Emilia Perez

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man
Twisters

Those are my predictions for the nominations for the 2024 Academy Awards. The nominees will be revealed tomorrow morning. Also despite the nominations date moved six days later, the Awards will still be held Sunday, March 2nd. It will be a big question of what they’ll keep in and what they’ll exclude in lieu of the wildfire aftermath. Even a question if they shorten it. We’ll see.

My Predictions For the 2019 Academy Awards

Jon The Blogcentric

Chocolate Oscar

It’s interesting that this year’s Oscars are being held the second Sunday of February. Usually they’re held the last Sunday or the first Sunday of March in a Winter Olympic year. It was pretty evident will all my cramming of my Best Picture reviews. I didn’t start until three weeks to go and I didn’t think I could review all nine in time. But I did! The last of the Best Picture reviews I posted on Wednesday. Next year they’ll be going back to the last Sunday of February. So hopefully reviewing them all will be a lot more relaxed.

Anyways I’m able to make predictions for this year’s Oscars. I’m even able to make some calls for what should win in some categories. I’ve seen enough films to make up 96 of the 124 nominations. They range from single-nomination films like Knives Out to Joker with the most nominations with eleven in total. Most categories have been very predictable with the same film or same effort winning film award after film award. That could help me with my Oscar bingo I’ll be playing once again this Sunday! However there are a few that appear unpredictable. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2019 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Oscar nominees

All credit to Olly Gibbs for that excellent image of this year’s nominees. This year has a wide range of film among the nine nominees. Two are set during World Wars. Two are written and directed by a Hollywood couple. Four have had a domestic gross at the box office of over $100 million. Two are films that got moved to NetFlix after an initial box-office release. One is done by a master of gangster movies and another is done by his heir apparent, but not a gangster movie at all. One is a modern-day adaptation of a classic novel. One is a fictional account of a cartoon villain. One is of car racing. One is of a failing marriage. One if of classic Hollywood. One is of Hitler through a child’s eyes. One is a possible answer to a popular whodunit. One is of a journey during war. And one is of an impoverished family trying to break free. All are seen worthy of being nominated in the Best Picture category this year. So here is my rundown of the Best Picture nominees:

1917 – War movies usually win the Academy over, as long as they’re done well. This has been the darling of most awards shows. I predict this as my Will Win pick. I myself admire it for its cinematography and it’s storytelling, but it’s not the film I most want to win Best Picture. Usually for Best Picture, I feel it should have much of the best of the year in the three top categories: acting, directing and writing.

Ford v Ferrari – Very rarely do auto racing movies get nominated for Best Picture. This is more than an auto racing film. It’s about those that were behind the big moment and the family relation of the racer who was shunned behind. Definitely a crowd-pleaser, but it doesn’t look like an Academy-pleaser.

The Irishman – What can I say? This is the film in which I most want to win because this is a film that went above and beyond what I expected out of it. I admire films that go above and beyond what I expect. Plus it had top-notch acting, directing and writing. However it lost a lot of its energy it had back in November. That’s why I think it won’t win.

Jojo Rabbit – This is one movie that would normally not be Best Picture material. I have to say of all nine Best Picture nominees, this is my favorite. This is the most entertaining of the nine. However I know how to separate my personal favorite from the films I feel are the best. Besides I know how stodgy the Academy is towards comedies.

Joker – Last year was something how a superhero movie finally got a Best Picture nomination. This year is a case of a story of the genesis of a villain won crowds and won movie awards. This is an impressive story too. However I feel that it faces stiff competition in the Best Picture race from other films.

Little Women – To think this is the first Little Women adaptation to be nominated for Best Picture! I can’t complain at all as the film took some different twists and it came out a winning story. I admire the way it was directed, written and acted, but there are films that have more boost in this competition.

Marriage Story – Sometimes all it takes to win people is a story that connects with people. That’s the magic of Marriage Story. This film’s best qualities are the acting and writing. However this is another film that appears prone to fall under the weight of bigger competition. Plus this being on NetFlix may be an additional reason why its chances were hurt.

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood – This is one salute to the Golden Age of Hollywood with a twist. Also it will cause a lot of people to reassess their definition of what a Quentin Tarantino movie is. I know my parents still think Tarantino movies are all ‘blood and guts’ but this film shows a side of Quentin most people overlook. I do rank this as a film in the Top 3 most expected to win, but it’s not my top pick. I think its summer release may have caused it to lose much of its buzz.

Parasite – This is definitely the foreign-language film of the year. Undisputed! This is my Should Win pick because this film has accomplished more than any of the other nine Best Picture nominees. It’s a case once again that the best film of the year is not in the English-language. However I’m very doubtful it will win. I remember last year Roma was the best film but it lost out to Green Book. That solidified my belief the Academy will never make a foreign-language film a Best Picture winner.

I know a lot of people often think the Academy Awards are a case of Hollywood patting itself on the back. One can say an excellent example of this was last year when Roma lost Best Picture to Green Book. If Once Upon A Time In Hollywood wins this, then it will further prove their point. I am very doubtful Parasite will win. However if 1917 wins, it won’t look like Hollywood patting itself on the back because it’s a British film!

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Will Win: Sam Mendes – 1917

I chose Bong Joon-ho naturally. Most people feel the common belief that The winner for Best Director should be the director of the Best Picture winner. It happens over 70% of the time at the Oscars. As a result my Best Director pick for Should Win is from the same film as my Should Win for Best Picture. I feel it’s right since Parasite is the film I admire most and it’s Bong who made it happen. I feel it will go to Sam Mendes because of his past awards success this year. Nevertheless I would not be disappointed if it did because 1917 is a film that’s worth admiring.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

What can I say? It’s not just about being widely praised as the acting performance of the year but of the movie role of the year. Nobody — not even the most loyal of Batman fans — expected Joker to be the film that it is. It’s a film that not only tells the story of the emergence of the Joker, the chaos of Gotham City and the genesis of Batman, but it takes one into the mind of Arthur Fleck. One knew that Arthur would snap any minute. What can I say? One could argue that it’s Joaquin that single-handedly made the work!

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Renee Zellweger – Judy

I never reviewed Judy in my blog after I saw it back in November. It’s an excellent story of a period in the last year of Judy Garland’s life. It focuses on her attempt for a comeback and how it appeared showbiz took everything out of her. It also flashed back to her childhood and how she was raised to think that a normal life that the other girls were having is for mortals. Renee was excellent in embodying Judy as she looked like a person who just couldn’t come to terms with herself and even feared what she would mostly be remembered for. Renee was spot on in epitomizing Judy from the voice, to the singing to the hostile attitude to the troubled personality to even writing left-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Will Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

One thing about this year’s acting nominees. A lot of people talked about the lack of racial diversity. That is true, and I even reminded people in social media of Spielberg saying the Academy is like a member-only club.

As for actors, another lack of diversity is that only six nominations went to performances from five actors who were never nominated before. For Supporting Actor, this is normally a ‘newbie-friendly’ category but all five have been nominated before in the past and only Brad Pitt has never won an Oscar. That appears likely to change as he is the heavy favorite to win for his scene-stealing in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. Actually Brad has enough screen time to qualify for the Best LEAD Actor category! However I would be likely to go with Joe Pesci for his portrayal as a mob boss who appears like a father figure. Nevertheless Sunday will be Brad’s moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Some performances nominated for Supporting Actor/Actress are usually lead roles that are ‘politicked’ as supporting roles, like I I mentioned about Brad Pitt earlier. Some supporting acting nominations and wins are because they’re good at stealing the show from the lead actors. And some nominations and wins in the supporting acting categories can also be because they do an excellent job of character acting. That’s why I have no problem with Laura Dern winning. She made you hate Nora! She did an excellent job as the manipulative sly-talking lawyer and she made her character of Nora almost look like she was a snake!  Actors are taught about even using animal-like behaviors to enhance characters. This award is Laura’s for the taking. And on the day before her 53rd birthday to boot!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Boon Jong-ho – Parasite

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

If there’s one major category that I feel will be the hardest to predict, it’s actually both screenplay categories. Lately some of the award shows have given alternating views on who they think is the best. I agree with what Bong Joon-ho said in his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes: “Once you overcome the one-inch-tall barrier of subtitles, you’ll be introduced to so many more amazing films.” I agree, but I doubt if the Academy agrees. Roma may have won last year, but I don’t think they’ll make it two in a row.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Steve Zaillian – The Irishman

Will Win: Greta Gerwig – Little Women

It’s interesting that Greta and her common-law partner Noah Baumbach are both nominated for screenplays this year. I had to go with The Irishman on this one because it’s a complex story that Zaillian is able to make work. I think they will give it to Great for putting a new twist to a story that’s been adapted numerous times. I think the biggest upset could come from Jojo Rabbit, but I’m still set on Little Women.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Toy Story 4

This year I did not see any of the nominated films. I only saw three animated films and none of them got nominated here. Even though Klaus won the Annie Award and the BAFTA, I have a feeling Disney is going to take it again. This is the one category Disney wants to win most. wouldn’t that be something if Toy Story 4 loses to a NetFlix film?

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Should Win and Will Win: Parasite (South Korea)

For those wondering, this is a new title for the category that used to be called Best Foreign Language Film. This year I saw four of the five nominees in this category, which is extremely rare for me. The others I saw are Pain And Glory, Honeyland and Corpus Christi. That means I can also make a ‘should win’ judgement in this category. It’s safe to say Parasite is the foreign-language film of the year. Also Honeyland makes history as the first documentary to be nominated in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Roger Deakins – 1917

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Jacqueline Durran – Little Women

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Honeyland

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Yang Jin-mo – Parasite

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker – Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – Rocketman

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh – Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: 1917

SHORT FILM PREDICTIONS

For my reviews of the nominees and predictions of the wins for Best Animated Short Film, Best Live-Action Short Film and Best Documentary Short Subject, click on this paragraph.

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the five upsets I anticipate are most likely to happen. In category order:

  • Taika Waititi for Best Adapted Screenplay for Jojo Rabbit
  • Klaus for Best Animated Feature
  • Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland for Best Film Editing for Ford v Ferrari
  • American Factory for Best Documentary Feature
  • The Lion King for Best Visual Effects

And there you go. My predictions for the winners, and possible upsetters of the 92nd Academy Awards. Having a hostless Oscars last year was such a success, they did it again this year. Will it be as entertaining? Will there be some shock winners like Olivia Colman was last year? It will all be decided Sunday night.

My Predictions For The 2018 Academy Awards

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

Chocolate Oscar

Holding this year’s Academy Awards has been a load of chaos going even as far back as August. The struggle had as its focus the record-low ratings of last year’s Oscars. Hey, when they keep on giving Best Picture to films with low grosses, they have that struggle coming. First there was an attempt to include a new category: Best Popular Film. Derision from critics, filmmakers and the public quickly rose and the category was dropped within a week. Then there was having Kevin Hart as the host. That seemed like a good idea, until he said something homophobic in his comedy. He apologized and even some celebrities came to his aid, but the hostility did not die. That meant no host this year: only the second Oscars to be hostless. Then came the procedure two weeks ago of four categories to be awarded during commercials with the presentation broadcast on livestream. Filmmakers and fans shouted their derision online and that led to the categories assigned back on broadcast.

All I can say about the ceremonies is what a headache for the organizers. The big question may not be ‘who will win what’ but ‘can they do a winning Oscars without a host?’ There has been one hostless Oscars in the past — the 61st in 1989 — and they went off very well despite the highlight being an unforgettably cheesy song-and-dance number with an awkward Snow White singing and dancing with Rob Lowe. This year’s hostless Oscars have yet to bee seen, but there have been other awards shows where there wasn’t a host.

The surprises weren’t just about the ceremony itself. The surprises were in the awards race too. One big shocker was a NetFlix film being a heavy favorite. Another was most of the Best Picture nominees snubbed in at least one category that effects their Best Picture standing: like in acting, directing, writing or film editing. Only BlacKkKlansman had nominations in all. Another was the double-snub of Emily Blunt in both acting categories to actresses of Roma that didn’t have as big of awards clout. Another was films with outside chances like Cold War and The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs garnering nominations. Guild awards provided other lopsided results too like SAGs giving snubbed-out Emily Blunt the Best Supporting Actress award, and the Writers Guild of America giving Bo Burnham the Best Original Screenplay award. With only days to go there’s still no clear favorite for Best Picture. Not even The Favourite!

However the awards results and the pictures themselves do give a good sense on who just could win. So without further ado, here are my predictions for who Will Win the Oscars as well as a Should-Win pick where I feel necessary. Also hyperlinks to my reviews are included.

BEST PICTURE

This year’s eight-pack of Best Picture nominees are quite unique and exhibit a lot in diversity. One is a film predominantly in Spanish. One is a superhero movie. Two are music-based. Three begin with the letter B. Three have African-Americans as their dominant or central characters. Five have some reference to LGBT people. All have a lot of awards clout and have paved their way successfully to their nominations. So here is my rundown of the Best Picture nominees:

Black Panther – The 21st Century is best remembered so far as the heyday of the superhero movie. For so long, people have waited for a superhero movie to get nominated for Best Picture. In fact the number of Best Picture entries was expanded past its traditional five when The Dark Knight didn’t get nominated. Finally a superhero movie is nominated. I can’t think of a better choice than Black Panther. It has all the qualities of a Best Picture contender — acting, directing, writing, and a lot more — but its buzz fell fast when its only other nominations were technical ones. I don’t think it will win.

BlacKkKlansman – Isn’t it something how Spike Lee went from boycotting the Oscars three years ago to becoming a nominee this year. Spike Lee has had a career with a lot of ups and downs. Ever since Do The Right Thing, he has struggled to get his greatness back. His success however has paved the way for other African American directors. BlacKkKlansman brought him back into major action. I consider this a top contender for the Best Picture award, but not necessarily the winner.

Bohemian Rhapsody – This film has all the ingredients of a Best Picture contender, especially a performance by the lead that will blow you away. The film also has a very critical weakness. That being the original director is an alleged sex offender. That may not hurt Rami’s chances for Best Actor, but it robs any and all chances of a Best Picture win for this film.

The Favourite – What’s the Oscar race without a timepiece set way back being a top contender for the Best Picture award? The Favourite is just that movie, and one of only two movies with ten nominations. The film has the ingredients to win Best Picture. However some may find the story too tempestuous and the film too eccentric to win the biggest award of the night.

Green Book – Overcoming racism has been a central theme in many a film in this year’s Oscar race. This is a film that may not be historically accurate, but it does make for a good film from start-to-finish with a good message. Much of it is true as Tony Lip’s son was the scriptwriter. It’s tight but I give this my Will Win pick.

Roma – This film is a thing of beauty. I can sum it up like that. For the record, no film predominantly in a foreign-language has ever won the Best Picture Oscar. I have a feeling that could rob Roma of the biggest award that night. However this is a close race and anything can happen. That’s why I give it my Should Win pick.

A Star Is Born – When the Oscar season began, this film had the biggest buzz. Especially with it being Lady Gaga’s big screen breakthrough. The film has all the ingredient for a Best Picture winner. However, this is a film that’s been done three times before. I don’t think the Academy is willing to give the Best Picture Oscar to a reboot.

Vice – If you remember The Big Short, you’ll see how Adam McKay lampooned the banking system and the games they were playing just as they were about to lead the US to its biggest recession since the Great Depression. Here McKay lampoons the American political system and how Dick Cheney played a major role in the political climate we have today both as Vice President and while holding other office. It’s as entertaining as The Big Short, but not as good. That’s where I feel Vice falls short in the Best Picture race.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

If you see Roma, you will see it’s more than just two women transformed in a changing time in Mexico. You will notice it’s a piece of Alfonso Cuaron’s childhood. He creates a masterpiece so beautiful and intimate, not even the images of the dog droppings can ruin its beauty. It’s a masterpiece of a film and I feel Cuaron deserves to win again.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Thirteen of this year’s twenty acting nominations are for performances of people that exist or have existed. In no other category is that best represented than in the Best Actor category. Bradley Cooper’s is the only nomination of a fictional person here. It’s a tough call between Christian Bale as Dick Cheney or Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury. I have to go with Malek because his performance was more dead-on while Bale’s was intended to be cartoonish in the way Adam McKay wanted it. Besides those that saw Bohemian Rhapsody will say Malek got the spirit of Freddie to a tee.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Glenn Close – The Wife

How far back was Glenn Close’s first Oscar nomination? Back in 1982 for her performance in The World According To Garp. Her performance in The Wife is her seventh nomination. Many people will claim that she will win the Oscar on career culmination. I’m sure Lady Gaga fans will have their own trash-talk on social media for her when she wins (Monsters indeed!). However those who have seen The Wife will admire her acting for how her character hides her true intentions and true feelings and you can see it. As expected, Glenn delivers.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win and Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Ever since he stunned audience in Moonlight as the crack dealer with a soft spot for the young boy, Mahershala Ali has been on a roll. I still remember in his acceptance speech, he said the advise his teacher taught him: “It’s not about you. It’s about the character.” He delivers again as Don Shirley. Another winner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win and Will Win: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

This is a category with jam-packed with top contending performances. It’s tough to pick a favorite. However I have to go with Regina King for playing the mother in Beale Street who goes all out for her son-in-law’s innocence.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite

The originals have the edge over the adapted this year, but the results are all over the map. Green Book has the Golden Globe, First Reformed has the Critics Choice, The Favourite has the BAFTA, while the Writers Guild award went to Eighth Grade which was snubbed out. This must be the major category that’s hardest to predict. I was tempted to go with Roma, but I have to pick The Favourite.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win: Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk

Will Win: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

In all frankness, I think If Beale Street Could Talk was the best film by an African American director this year. James Baldwin would have been proud of Barry Jenkins’ adaptation. However I think the major buzz is for the four writers of BlacKkKlansman for creating a clever story that’s very thought-provoking.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Should Win and Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

This year, animated movies continued to draw crowds and families. However it was once again another year that couldn’t compare to 2016. Near the end of the year, the two biggest movies were sequels: Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks The Internet. Just when it seemed lackluster, Spider-Verse came and was more entertaining than the others. Deserves to win here.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: RBG

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Hank Corwin – Vice

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Roma (Mexico)

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Will Win: Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney – Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Should Win and Will Win: ‘Shallow” from A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton – The Favourite

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: A Quiet Place

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Click here for reviews and predictions.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Black Sheep

JUST ONE MORE – TOP OSCAR UPSETS

Here are the six upsets I feel are most likely to occur. In category order:

  • Roma wins Best Picture
  • Spike Lee wins Best Director for BlacKkKlansman.
  • Christian Bale wins Best Actor for Vice.
  • Amy Adams wins Best Supporting Actress for Vice.
  • Łukasz Żal wins Best Cinematography for Cold War.
  • Cold War wins Best Foreign-Language Film.

And there you have it. My predictions for the winners, and possible upsetters of the 91st Academy Awards. The end result of a hostless Oscars has yet to be seen, as well as the ratings results. But the winners have yet to be seen too, and that should be the most important thing. It will all be decided Sunday night.

Golden Globes Turn 75: And My Predictions

Jon The BlogcentricLeave a comment

Golden Globe
Ever since the Golden Globes were introduced in 1944, they’ve become one of the most prestigious awards on the entertainment circuit. Only the Oscar or the Emmy are more coveted.

Today will be the awarding of the Golden Globes. This year isn’t just any Golden Globes, but the 75th to take place.

A Very Brief History

Some of you may wonder how did the Golden Globes come to be? Firstly, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was founded in 1943 by Los Angeles-based journalists to give a more organized process of distributing cinema news to markets outside the U.S. The following year, they formed their own film awards, the Golden Globes, to give their opinions of who are the best of the year. While the AMPAS Academy consists primarily of professionals in their respective film field, the Golden Globes would be the decisions of these journalists.

The very first Golden Globes held back in 1944 consisted of six categories: Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting categories. Their decisions for the winners would be three for six with the Oscar winners. The Song Of Bernadette was chosen as the Best Picture winner while the Oscars went for Casablanca. Same thing with Best Director; Globes chose Bernadette director Henry King while the Academy favored Casablanca director Michael Curtiz. The acting categories almost completely matched each other as Globe-winners Paul Lukas, Jennifer Jones and Katina Paxinou would also win the Oscars later. Only Supporting Actor winner Akim Tamiroff from For Whom The Bell Tolls wouldn’t win an Oscar, despite being nominated.

Over the years, the Golden Globes would grow in popularity as their matches would be very close to that of the Oscars. They would also include cinematography categories temporarily and even a Best New Star category, which would be retired after the 1983 awards. The eighth Golden Globes would see the Awards giving separate awards for Best Picture and lead acting in both drama and comedy or musical. Something that still continues today. The Golden Globes would start to include awards to television starting in 1955: six years after the Emmy awards were created.

The Golden Globes would eventually become the second-most coveted film or television awards with only the Oscars or the Emmies being more coveted. It’s not to say it hasn’t been without its controversies, and not just because of hosting done by the likes of Rickyy Gervais et al. The make up of the Hollywood Foreign Press is often under question for their qualifications. Also their tendency to favor glitz and glamor at times have made people wonder at their choices. Even how in cases where one actress who did an interview for the HFP would later receive an award would get some people wondering. There was even suspicion at the 1981 Awards when Pia Zadora won Best New Star for her performance in Butterfly. Some claim that Meshulem Riklis, her millionaire husband at the time, paid the HFP to have her win. However nothing has been proven. Also it goes to show that there’s no such thing as an impartial judging body for any awards show. The Oscars and the Golden Globes are no exceptions to that. Nevertheless they still remain the most coveted.

And My Predictions For This Year

This year’s Golden Globes will be hosted by Seth Meyers. Some are saying he can be as controversial as Ricky Gervais tonight. This year’s Globes have fourteen categories for film and eleven categories for television. To start things off, here are my predictions for both the winners and their respective most likely upsetters in the film categories:

FILM:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Dunkirk
Most Likely Upsetter: Call Me By Your Name

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Get Out

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Most Likely Upsetter: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Most Likely Upsetter: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most Likely Upsetter: Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Winner: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Winner: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Most Likely Upsetter: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Winner: Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Most Likely Upsetter: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Director
Winner: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water
Most Likely Upsetter: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Winner: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Most Likely Upsetter: Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape Of Water

Best Foreign-Language Film
Winner: The Square (Sweden)
Most Likely Upsetter: Loveless (Russia)

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Coco
Most Likely Upsetter: Loving Vincent

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Winner: “Remember Me”, Coco
Most Likely Upsetter: “Mighty River”, Mudbound

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Most Likely Upsetter: John Williams, The Post

Those who know me well enough know I will predict the winners for the television categories but not predict the most likely upsetters. So my predictions for the winners:

TELEVISION:

Best TV Movie or Miniseries: Big Little Lies

Best TV Series, Drama: The Handmaid’s Tale

Best TV Series, Comedy: Black-ish

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy: Aziz Ansari, Master Of None

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy: Pamela Adlon, Better Things

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Robert De Niro, The Wizard Of Lies

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie: Laura Dern,  Big Little Lies

And there you go. Those are my predictions for tonight’s Golden Globe awards. Winners to be revealed starting 8pm EST.

My Top 10 Films of 2016

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Why do I do my Top 10 lists of the year so late into the following year? Simple. I’m not a film critic that gets free tickets to sneak peaks or special DVDs to preview before the end of the year. So that means I’m limited to making my picks until months into the new year.

It took awhile because I had a lot of catching up to do in terms of movie watching. Boy did I have a lot to watch and boy was it hard to rank the Top 10 of the year. There were a lot of films I liked and it’s hard to rank them 1st to 10th. But it’s needed if you want to make a Top 10 list.

So without further ado, here are my Top 10 Films Of 2016:

moonlight

  1. Moonlight
  2. La La Land
  3. Fences
  4. Manchester By The Sea
  5. Silence
  6. Deadpool
  7. Hidden Figures
  8. Hell Or High Water
  9. Kubo And The Two Strings
  10. Loving

Honorable Mention:

  • Arrival
  • Lion
  • Zootopia
  • The Salesman
  • Hacksaw Ridge

And there you have it. My Top 10 films of 2016. For my past lists, just click on the links below:

It’s VIFF Time Again

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Cinema

Yes, the Vancouver International Film Festival starts again. Today begins the 35th installment of the Film Festival. This year will not only be exciting because of what to see but also what new additions are happening.

This year’s theme is: “Expand the frame.” Part of the aim of this year’s VIFF is to make the Festival more accessible and more creative. One of the new additions is the VIFF Hub. The Hub and surrounding area will be the location for lectures and exhibitions surrounding film and art. There will even be art exhibitions, virtual reality exhibits and music performances from DJs, local performers and performers from around the world. Some events are free of charge as long as you’re a VIFF member while some may be ticketed events. The VIFF website will explain it all.

Film is still the centre of it all. There will not only be films shown but lectures from industry professionals as well. Directors, producers and actors will appear at some showings for Q&A’s including an appearance of Tatiana Maslany. Deal-making will also be included in the process. This year, for the first time, there will be an IMAX film shown over at the Telus World of Science for the Closing Gala.

As for volunteering, this year there were 1100 volunteers signing up. Way higher than the usual 800 that serve the required 32 hours of work. Because of that, volunteer seating will be limited during many films or not allotted at all. Nevertheless I should be able to get in to see a lot of good films. This year promises to have hundreds of shorts and feature films from 73 countries, including five ‘globetrotting’ films. As of press time, 13 films are official submissions for  the category of Best Foreign Language Film for this year’s Oscars. A footnote worth adding is A Flickering Truth from last year’s VIFF is New Zealand’s official entry in the category for this year. Canadian films will remain the focus as has been in past Festivals. This year’s top sponsor is no longer Rogers but a more local big name in telecommunications: Telus. SuperChannel will take over the People’s Choice awards.

As for highlights, here’s a list of some of the films headlining the VIFF:

  • OPENING GALA: Maudie – A biographic film of Canadian folk artist Maude Lewis starring Sally Hawkins and Ethan Hawke.
  • CLOSING GALA:  Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience – An IMAX spectacle of the universe from the beginning of time to today. Written and directed by Terrence Malick and narrated by Brad Pitt.
  • American Honey – A drama about a teenage orphan trying to grow up. Directed by Andrea Arnold and stars Shia LaBeouf.
  • The Birth Of A Nation – This Sundance’s hot ticket and the hottest thing to come from the fest in years. Nate Parker writes, directs and stars in this drama of a slave rebellion that occurred decades before the Civil War.
  • Elle – The latest black comedy from controversy-causing director Paul Verhoeven. Isabelle Huppert plays a video game CEO with a lust for power and revenge.
  • The Girl With All The Gifts – A British zombie drama directed by Colm McCarthy and stars Gemma Arterton and Glenn Close.
  • Graduation – A Romanian drama of a doctor doing what he can to insure his daughter gets into a presigious university. Director Cristian Mungiu won Best Director at this year’s Cannes Film Fest for this.
  • The Handmaiden – A Korean drama of a pickpocket who plays a Japanese maid of an heiress whose fortunes he plans to steal. Divided by chapters and loaded with sensuality.
  • Human – A documentary by French director Yann Arthus-Bertrand. It focuses on the world from on high from positive things like love to even negative things like murder.
  • I, Daniel Blake – This year’s Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, this film focuses on a man getting his disability status reassesses and denied benefits. Ken Loach’s look at one man rivaling the system.
  • Julieta – Pedro Almodovar is back! Spain’s submission for the Best Foreign Language film for this year’s Oscars, Almodovar returns to the heart-on-the sleeve melodramas with female lead characters he’s most famous for.
  • Manchester By The Sea – Another highlight from this year’s Sundance. Director Kenneth Lonergan showcases a story of a man (Casey Affleck) returning to his Massachusetts home after the death of his brother and trying to sort out his family’s past.
  • Milton’s Secret – A Canadian hot ticket directed by Barnet Bain, it’s a unique story of how a troubled 12 year-old teenager finds relief from the frustrations of his life through his grandfather. Stars Donald Sutherland and Michelle Rodriguez.
  • Moonlight – Director Barry Jenkins showcases a drama of an African-American man struggling to come out despite the past troubles that haunt him.
  • Toni Erdmann – Germany’s submission for the Best Foreign Language film for this year’s Oscars, the film tells the story of a woman frustrated with her conniving father and his female disguise that irritates her to the point of leaving him behind after her promotion.

So this is what this year’s VIFF has in store. It all starts September 29th and it all ends October 14th. Lots of excitement to come.

 

 

My Top 10 Movies of 2015

Jon The Blogcentric1 Comment

Yep, it’s that time when I publish my opinions on what were the top movies and films of the year. 2015 was a better year than 2014 in many ways. It gave people lots of reasons to go see a movie. It also gave a lot of good quality films as well. Basically the year gave a lot to be admired. It also helped the film industry breathe a sigh of relief as they may have felt that they were losing crowds because of new media forms.

Nope, people still like going to the cinema to see a movie. And 2015 gave lots of good reasons from your typical superhero movies to the return of a maverick series to a sci-fi film that came from nowhere to amaze people to a film that will infuriate you over bankers to a bear attack for the ages.

So without further ado, here are my Top 10 films of 2015:

Big Short

  1. The Big Short
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. Ex Machina
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. The Revenant
  6. Spotlight
  7. Room
  8. Straight Outta Compton
  9. Carol
  10. Inside Out

Honorable Mention:

  • The Hateful Eight
  • Brooklyn
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • Love and Mercy
  • Anomalisa

And there you have it. My Top 10 films of 2015. For my past lists, just click on the links below: